Ocean-induced melt volume directly paces ice loss from Pine Island Glacier.

The spatial distribution of ocean-induced melting beneath buttressing ice shelves is often cited as an important factor controlling Antarctica's sea-level contribution. Using numerical simulations, we investigate the relative sensitivity of grounded-ice loss to the spatial distribution and overall volume of ice-shelf melt over two centuries. Contrary to earlier work, we find only minor sensitivity to melt distribution (<6%), with a linear dependence of ice loss on the total melt. Thus, less complex models that need not reproduce the detailed melt distribution may simplify the projection of future sea level. The linear sensitivity suggests a contribution of up to 5.1 cm from Pine Island Glacier over the next two centuries given anticipated levels of ocean warming, provided its ice shelf does not collapse because of other causes.

Ice-shelf retreat drives recent Pine Island Glacier speedup.

Speedup of Pine Island Glacier over the past several decades has made it Antarctica's largest contributor to sea-level rise. The past speedup is largely due to grounding-line retreat in response to ocean-induced thinning that reduced ice-shelf buttressing. While speeds remained fairly steady from 2009 to late 2017, our Copernicus Sentinel 1A/B-derived velocity data show a >12% speedup over the past 3 years, coincident with a 19-km retreat of the ice shelf. We use an ice-flow model to simulate this loss, finding that accelerated calving can explain the recent speedup, independent of the grounding-line, melt-driven processes responsible for past speedups. If the ice shelf's rapid retreat continues, it could further destabilize the glacier far sooner than would be expected due to surface- or ocean-melting processes.

A Decade of Variability on Jakobshavn Isbrae: Ocean Temperatures Pace Speed Through Influence on Mélange Rigidity.

The speed of Greenland's fastest glacier, Jakobshavn Isbrae, has varied substantially since its speedup in the late 1990s. Here we present observations of surface velocity, mélange rigidity, and surface elevation to examine its behaviour over the last decade. Consistent with earlier results, we find a pronounced cycle of summer speedup and thinning followed by winter slowdown and thickening. There were extended periods of rigid mélange in the winters of 2016-17 and 2017-18, concurrent with terminus advances ~6 km farther than in the several winters prior. These terminus advances to shallower depths caused slowdowns, leading to substantial thickening, as has been noted elsewhere. The extended periods of rigid mélange coincide well with a period of cooler waters in Disko Bay. Thus, along with the relative timing of the seasonal slowdown, our results suggest that the ocean's dominant influence on Jakobshavn Isbrae is through its effect on winter mélange rigidity, rather than summer submarine melting. The elevation time series also reveals that in summers when the area upstream of the terminus approaches flotation, large surface depressions can form, which eventually become the detachment points for major calving events. It appears that as elevations near flotation, basal crevasses can form, which initiates a necking process that forms the depressions. The elevation data also show that steep cliffs often evolve into short floating extensions, rather than collapsing catastrophically due to brittle failure. Finally, summer 2019 speeds were slightly faster than the prior two summers, leaving it unclear whether the slowdown is ending.

Regularized Coulomb Friction Laws for Ice Sheet Sliding: Application to Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica.

The choice of the best basal friction law to use in ice-sheet models remains a source of uncertainty in projections of sea level. The parameters in commonly used friction laws can produce a broad range of behavior and are poorly constrained. Here we use a time series of elevation and speed data to examine the simulated transient response of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, to a loss of basal traction as its grounding line retreats. We evaluate a variety of friction laws, which produces a diversity of responses, to determine which best reproduces the observed speedup when forced with the observed thinning. Forms of the commonly used power law friction provide much larger model-data disagreement than less commonly used regularized Coulomb friction in which cavitation effects yield an upper bound on basal friction. Thus, adoption of such friction laws could substantially improve the fidelity of large-scale simulations to determine future sea level.

A Complete Map of Greenland Ice Velocity Derived from Satellite Data Collected over 20 Years.

While numerous maps of Greenland ice flow velocity exist, most have gaps in coverage and/or accuracy is limited. We processed a large volume of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Landsat 8 imagery collected between 1995 and 2015 to produce a nearly complete map of ice flow velocity for Greenland at a far greater accuracy than most prior products. We evaluated the accuracy of this map by comparing it with a variety of measured and estimated velocities. For the slow-moving interior of the ice sheet, where estimates are determined from interferometric phase, the errors are ~2 m a-1 or better. For coastal areas, where estimates are determined entirely from speckle- or feature-tracking methods, errors are 2-3 m a-1, which is in good agreement with the estimated formal errors. Especially for the slow-moving majority of the ice sheet, this map provides an important source of data for numerous types of glaciological studies.

Greenland Ice Mapping Project: Ice Flow Velocity Variation at sub-monthly to decadal time scales.

We describe several new ice velocity maps produced by the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) using Landsat 8 and Copernicus Sentinel 1A/B data. We then focus on several sites where we analyse these data in conjunction with earlier data from this project, which extend back to the year 2000. At Jakobshavn Isbrae and Koge Bugt, we find good agreement when comparing results from different sensors. In a change from recent behaviour, Jakobshavn Isbrae began slowing substantially in 2017, with a mid-summer peak that was even slower than some previous winter minimums. Over the last decade, we identify two major slowdown events at Koge Bugt that coincide with short-term advances of the terminus. We also examined populations of glaciers in northwest and southwest Greenland to produce a record of speedup since 2000. Collectively these glaciers continue to speed up, but there are regional differences in the timing of periods of peak speedup. In addition, we computed trends in winter flow speed for much of the southwest margin of the ice sheet and find little in the way of statistically significant change over the period covered by our data. Finally, although consistency of the data generally is good through time and across sensors, our analysis indicates substantial differences can arise in regions with high strain rates (e.g., shear margins) where sensor resolution can become a factor. For applications such as constraining model inversions, users should factor in the impact that the data's resolution has on their results.

A SAR Record of Early 21st Century Change in Greenland.

Glaciers in Greenland are changing rapidly. To better understand these changes, we have produced a series of seven synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) backscatter mosaics for seven winters during the period from 2000 to 2013. Six of the mosaics were created using RADARSAT Fine-Beam data and the seventh used ALOS PALSAR Fine-Beam Single-Polarization data. The RADARSAT mosaics are radiometrically calibrated and capture changes in the backscatter coefficient related to melt and other events, particularly the strong melting in the summer of 2012. Comparison of features in the ascending-orbit ALOS mosaic and the descending-orbit RADARSAT mosaics indicate that in areas of smooth to moderate topography their locations are consistent to within a few 10s of meters. The locations of features identifiable in the RADARAT mosaics, which were collected with the same imaging parameters, generally agree to within better than the 20-m posting of the data. With such geometric accuracy, these data establish a record of change in Greenland for the early part of the 21st Century, thus providing a baseline that can be compared with new radar and optical data sets.

Greenland supraglacial lake drainages triggered by hydrologically induced basal slip.

Water-driven fracture propagation beneath supraglacial lakes rapidly transports large volumes of surface meltwater to the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet. These drainage events drive transient ice-sheet acceleration and establish conduits for additional surface-to-bed meltwater transport for the remainder of the melt season. Although it is well established that cracks must remain water-filled to propagate to the bed, the precise mechanisms that initiate hydro-fracture events beneath lakes are unknown. Here we show that, for a lake on the western Greenland Ice Sheet, drainage events are preceded by a 6-12 hour period of ice-sheet uplift and/or enhanced basal slip. Our observations from a dense Global Positioning System (GPS) network allow us to determine the distribution of meltwater at the ice-sheet bed before, during, and after three rapid drainages in 2011-2013, each of which generates tensile stresses that promote hydro-fracture beneath the lake. We hypothesize that these precursors are associated with the introduction of meltwater to the bed through neighbouring moulin systems (vertical conduits connecting the surface and base of the ice sheet). Our results imply that as lakes form in less crevassed, interior regions of the ice sheet, where water at the bed is currently less pervasive, the creation of new surface-to-bed conduits caused by lake-draining hydro-fractures may be limited.

Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica.

Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years.

Distinct patterns of seasonal Greenland glacier velocity.

Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss due to ice dynamics requires a complete understanding of spatiotemporal velocity fluctuations and related control mechanisms. We present a 5 year record of seasonal velocity measurements for 55 marine-terminating glaciers distributed around the ice sheet margin, along with ice-front position and runoff data sets for each glacier. Among glaciers with substantial speed variations, we find three distinct seasonal velocity patterns. One pattern indicates relatively high glacier sensitivity to ice-front position. The other two patterns are more prevalent and appear to be meltwater controlled. These patterns reveal differences in which some subglacial systems likely transition seasonally from inefficient, distributed hydrologic networks to efficient, channelized drainage, while others do not. The difference may be determined by meltwater availability, which in some regions may be influenced by perennial firn aquifers. Our results highlight the need to understand subglacial meltwater availability on an ice sheet-wide scale to predict future dynamic changes. KEY POINTS: First multi-region seasonal velocity measurements show regional differencesSeasonal velocity fluctuations on most glaciers appear meltwater controlledSeasonal development of efficient subglacial drainage geographically divided.

Future sea-level rise from Greenland's main outlet glaciers in a warming climate.

Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200.

Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing.

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance.

We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods--especially in Greenland and West Antarctica--and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, -65 ± 26, and -20 ± 14 gigatonnes year(-1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year(-1) to the rate of global sea-level rise.

A simple law for ice-shelf calving.

A major problem for ice-sheet models is that no physically based law for the calving process has been established. Comparison across a diverse set of ice shelves demonstrates that iceberg calving increases with the along-flow spreading rate of a shelf. This relation suggests that frictional buttressing loss, which increases spreading, also leads to shelf retreat, a process known to accelerate ice-sheet flow and contribute to sea-level rise.

Fracture propagation to the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet during supraglacial lake drainage.

Surface meltwater that reaches the base of an ice sheet creates a mechanism for the rapid response of ice flow to climate change. The process whereby such a pathway is created through thick, cold ice has not, however, been previously observed. We describe the rapid (<2 hours) drainage of a large supraglacial lake down 980 meters through to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet initiated by water-driven fracture propagation evolving into moulin flow. Drainage coincided with increased seismicity, transient acceleration, ice-sheet uplift, and horizontal displacement. Subsidence and deceleration occurred over the subsequent 24 hours. The short-lived dynamic response suggests that an efficient drainage system dispersed the meltwater subglacially. The integrated effect of multiple lake drainages could explain the observed net regional summer ice speedup.

Seasonal speedup along the western flank of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

It has been widely hypothesized that a warmer climate in Greenland would increase the volume of lubricating surface meltwater reaching the ice-bedrock interface, accelerating ice flow and increasing mass loss. We have assembled a data set that provides a synoptic-scale view, spanning ice-sheet to outlet-glacier flow, with which to evaluate this hypothesis. On the ice sheet, these data reveal summer speedups (50 to 100%) consistent with, but somewhat larger than, earlier observations. The relative speedup of outlet glaciers, however, is far smaller (<15%). Furthermore, the dominant seasonal influence on Jakobshavn Isbrae's flow is the calving front's annual advance and retreat. With other effects producing outlet-glacier speedups an order of magnitude larger, seasonal melt's influence on ice flow is likely confined to those regions dominated by ice-sheet flow.