Mental health in nursing homes: The role of immigration in the long-term care workforce.

One-fourth of nursing home residents are diagnosed with anxiety disorders and approximately half live with depression. Nursing homes have long struggled with staffing shortages, and the lack of care has further heightened the risk of poor mental health. A key solution to both problems could be immigration. Prior studies have documented how immigrant labor could strengthen the long-term care workforce. We add to this picture by exploring the impact of immigrant inflows on the mental health outcomes of nursing home residents. Using a nationally representative dataset and a shift-share instrumental variable approach, we find empirical evidence that immigration reduces diagnoses of depression and anxiety, the use of antidepressant and antianxiety drugs, and self-assessed symptoms of depression. The results are robust to several sensitivity tests. We further find that the effect is more substantial in facilities with lower direct care staff hours per resident and with likely more immigrants without citizenship. Language barriers tend to be a minor issue when providing essential care. The findings suggest that creating a policy framework that directs immigrant labor to the long-term care sector can mutually benefit job-seeking immigrants and nursing home residents.

State Department of Motor Vehicles Reporting Mandates of Dementia Diagnoses and Dementia Underdiagnosis.

Importance: With older drivers representing the fastest growing segment of the driver population and dementia prevalence increasing with age, policymakers face the challenge of balancing road safety and mobility of older adults. In states that require reporting a dementia diagnosis to the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV), individuals with dementia may be reluctant to disclose symptoms of cognitive decline, and clinicians may be reluctant to probe for those symptoms, which may be associated with missed or delayed diagnoses. Objective: To assess whether DMV reporting policies for drivers with dementia are associated with primary care clinicians' underdiagnosing dementia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used data from the 100% Medicare fee-for-service program and the Medicare Advantage plans from 2017 to 2019 on 223 036 primary care clinicians with at least 25 Medicare patients. Statistical analysis was performed from July to October 2023. Exposures: State DMV reporting policies for drivers with dementia. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was a binary variable indicating whether the clinician underdiagnosed dementia or not. Each clinician's expected number of dementia cases was estimated using a predictive model based on patient characteristics. Comparing the estimation with observed dementia diagnoses identified clinicians who underdiagnosed dementia vs those who did not, after accounting for sampling errors. Results: Four states have clinician reporting mandates, 14 have mandates requiring drivers to self-report dementia diagnoses, and 32 states and the District of Columbia do not have explicit requirements. Among primary care clinicians in states with clinician reporting mandates (n = 35 620), 51.4% were female, 91.9% worked in a metropolitan area, and 19.9% of the patient panel were beneficiaries dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. Among primary care clinicians in states with patient self-reporting mandates (n = 57 548), 55.7% were female, 83.1% worked in a metropolitan area, and 15.4% of the patient panel were dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. Among clinicians in states without mandates, 55.7% were female, 83.0% worked in a metropolitan area, and 14.6% of the patient panel were dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. Clinicians in states with clinician reporting mandates had an adjusted 12.4% (95% CI, 10.5%-14.2%) probability of underdiagnosing dementia compared with 7.8% (95% CI, 6.9%-8.7%) in states with self-reporting and 7.7% (95% CI, 6.9%-8.4%) in states with no mandates, an approximately 4-percentage point difference (P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this cross-sectional study of primary care clinicians suggest that mandatory DMV policies for clinicians to report patients with dementia may be associated with a higher risk of missed or delayed dementia diagnoses. Future research is needed to better understand the unintended consequences and the risk-benefit tradeoffs of these policies.

Disparities in Access to Diagnostic Evaluation for Alzheimer's Disease in Individuals Dually Eligible for Medicare and Medicaid: A Modeling Study.

Background: Individuals dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid (duals) may face greater obstacles to access to disease-modifying Alzheimer's treatments in spite of their higher disease burden, because of clinicians' reluctance to accept Medicaid and the so-called "lesser of" policy, under which Medicaid may pay providers lower rates. Objective: To project differential wait times for duals compared to Medicare-only beneficiaries by state. Methods: We used State Medicaid payment policy and Medicare enrollment data and a Markov model to predict differential wait times for duals and non-duals from 2023 to 2050. We estimated available diagnostic appointments by state for both groups based on reluctance of clinicians to accept Medicaid and the "lesser of" policy for each year. Results: We estimate overall average wait times of almost two years (22.9 months) but almost three times as long for duals (59.8 months) than non-duals (20.7 months) because of higher disease burden. The effects of Medicaid payment policy would increase average wait times for duals to 89 months with 20 states having wait times of 99 months or more, which would effectively deprive duals of access. Conclusions: The added average wait times in many states would effectively deprive duals from access to treatment and translate into avoidable disease progression and mortality. Policy interventions to reduce financial and nonfinancial obstacles are dearly needed to avoid deepening disparities. Examples are coverage arrangements that integrate Medicare and Medicaid coverage, covering the co-payment for physician services in full, and stricter network adequacy requirements for Medicaid Managed Care plans.

Nursing Home Staffing: Share Of Immigrant Certified Nursing Assistants Grew As US-Born Staff Numbers Fell, 2010-21.

Nursing homes have long faced a shortage of direct care workers, a problem that was magnified during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using nationally representative data from three sources, we found that much of the certified nursing assistant (CNA) workforce in US nursing homes is filled by immigrant labor. The number of native-born CNAs has been declining rapidly since the mid-2010s, whereas the number of foreign-born CNAs has remained relatively constant. During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the share of immigrant CNAs employed by nursing homes surged, which can be explained by a simultaneous drop in the share of native-born staff. Staffing shortages observed during the pandemic would have been worse if not for foreign-born CNAs remaining in the workforce. However, the share of foreign-born CNAs varied considerably across states, from less than 1 percent in West Virginia to more than 70 percent in Hawaii. In an analysis of prepandemic data, we found that nursing homes in regions with a higher share of immigrant CNAs were associated with more direct care staff hours per resident day and better nursing home quality performance. With the growing demand for long-term care, creating pathways for job-seeking immigrants to fill the gaps in direct care will be crucial to meeting future staffing needs.

The Value of Medicare Coverage on Depressive Symptoms Among Older Immigrants.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The immigrant population, the primary driver of U.S. population growth, is aging and many immigrants remain uninsured. Lack of health insurance limits access to care, aggravating the already high level of depression for older immigrants. However, there is scarce evidence on how health insurance, particularly Medicare, affects their mental health. Using the Health and Retirement Study, this study examines the effect of Medicare coverage on depressive symptoms of older immigrants in the United States. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Exploiting the fact that many immigrants are not covered by Medicare after passing age 65, we use a difference-in-difference model with propensity score weighting to compare differences in depressive symptoms pre- and post-age-65. We further stratify the sample by socioeconomic status and by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Medicare coverage was significantly associated with a reduction in the probability of reporting depressive symptoms for immigrants with low socioeconomic status, especially for those below median wealth levels. The beneficial effect of Medicare coverage was also statistically significant for non-White immigrants-Black, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander-even when holding socioeconomic status constant. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Our findings imply that immigration policies that expand health care protection to older immigrants can lead to further health benefits and reduce existing disparities for the aging population. Policy reforms such as providing limited Medicare access to immigrants who paid sufficient taxes but are still awaiting permanent residency status could increase coverage for the uninsured and improve participation of immigrants in the payroll system.

Expected and diagnosed rates of mild cognitive impairment and dementia in the U.S. Medicare population: observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: With the emergence of disease-modifying Alzheimer's treatments, timely detection of early-stage disease is more important than ever, as the treatment will not be indicated for later stages. Contemporary population-level data for detection rates of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), the stage at which treatment would ideally start, are lacking, and detection rates for dementia are only available for subsets of the Medicare population. We sought to compare documented diagnosis rates of MCI and dementia in the full Medicare population with expected rates based on a predictive model. METHODS: We performed an observational analysis of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older with a near-continuous enrollment over a 3-year observation window or until death using 100% of the Medicare fee-for-service or Medicare Advantage Plans beneficiaries from 2015 to 2019. Actual diagnoses for MCI and dementia were derived from ICD-10 codes documented in those data. We used the 2000-2016 data of the Health and Retirement Study to develop a prediction model for expected diagnoses for the included population. The ratios between actually diagnosed cases of MCI and dementia over number of cases expected, the observed over expected ratio, reflects the detection rate. RESULTS: Although detection rates for MCI cases increased from 2015 to 2019 (0.062 to 0.079), the results mean that 7.4 of 8 million (92%) expected MCI cases remained undiagnosed. The detection rate for MCI was 0.039 and 0.048 in Black and Hispanic beneficiaries, respectively, compared with 0.098 in non-Hispanic White beneficiaries. Individuals dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid had lower estimated detection rates than their Medicare-only counterparts for MCI (0.056 vs 0.085). Dementia was diagnosed more frequently than expected (1.086 to 1.104) from 2015 to 2019, mostly in non-Hispanic White beneficiaries (1.367) compared with 0.696 in Black beneficiaries and 0.758 in Hispanic beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the need to increase the overall detection rates of MCI and of dementia particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.

Association of cash payment with intensity of opioid prescriptions.

BACKGROUND: It is difficult to track use and outcomes in patients who pay cash for their prescriptions at the pharmacy. In Texas, 14% of all opioid prescriptions are paid with cash, often by uninsured patients and pharmacy shoppers. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of cash payment with intensity of opioid prescriptions. METHODS: Using a prescription drug monitoring program and the U.S. Census data for the 2019 calendar year, this cross-sectional descriptive study analyzed more than 4 million opioid prescriptions in Texas residents aged 18-64 years. The payment type was coded as insurance if the prescription was paid in whole or in part by a health plan and as cash otherwise. Daily morphine milligram equivalent (MME) dose was used to compare the intensity of opioid prescriptions. The association of uninsured rates with mean daily MME and the number of opioid prescriptions paid with cash per 100,000 persons were assessed at a county level. RESULTS: Cash payment was associated with 30% higher mean daily MME (59 vs. 45; P < 0.001) than insurance payment. This difference was driven by the prescriptions for patients aged 25-34 years and from the highest decile of prescribers based on the percentage of opioid prescriptions paid by cash. For instance, cash payment was associated with 82% higher mean daily MME (91 vs. 50; P < 0.001) when patients aged 25-34 years obtained their prescriptions from the highest decile of prescribers. At a county level, uninsured rates were not associated with mean daily MMEs or the number of opioid prescriptions paid with cash. CONCLUSION: Cash payment was associated with a higher intensity of opioid prescriptions, mirroring the rates of drug overdose deaths across the patient age groups. Further research and policy actions need to address unmet pain management needs in uninsured patients and potential pharmacy shopping with cash payment and fraudulent identifications.

Projecting the long-term societal value of a disease-modifying treatment for Alzheimer's disease in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: We estimate societal value of a disease-modifying Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment that reduces progression by 30% in early stages. METHODS: Using the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research value flower as framework, we estimate gross societal value, that is, not including treatment cost, from avoided medical and social care costs, productivity and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gains for patients and caregivers, adjusting for severity of disease, value of financial insurance, and value of insurance for currently unafflicted adults with a Markov model. RESULTS: Predicted societal value from 2021 until 2041 is $2.62 trillion for the overall afflicted US population and $986 billion for the 2021 prevalent cohort or $134,418 per person, with valuation of patients' QALY gains (63%) and avoided nursing-home costs (20%) as largest components. Delays in access because of health system capacity constraints could reduce realized value between 52% and 69%. The value of insurance for the unafflicted is $4.52 trillion or $18,399 on average per person. DISCUSSION: With a total of $5.5 trillion, the projected gross societal value of a hypothetical AD treatment is substantial, which may help to put the cost of treatment into perspective.

Private Insurance and Mental Health among Older Adults with Multiple Chronic Conditions: A Longitudinal Analysis by Race and Ethnicity.

Older adults with multiple chronic conditions have a higher risk than those without multiple conditions of developing a mental health condition. Individuals with both physical and mental conditions face many substantial burdens. Many such individuals also belong to racial and ethnic minority groups. Private insurance coverage can reduce the risks of developing mental illnesses by increasing healthcare utilization and reducing psychological stress related to financial hardship. This study examines the association between private insurance and mental health (i.e., depressive symptoms and cognitive impairment) among older adults in the United States with multiple chronic conditions by race and ethnicity. We apply a multivariate logistic model with individual fixed-effects to 12 waves of the Health and Retirement Study. Among adults with multiple chronic conditions in late middle age nearing entry to Medicare and of all racial and ethnic groups, those without private insurance have a stronger probability of having depressive symptoms. Private insurance and Medicare can mediate the risk of cognitive impairment among non-Hispanic Whites with multiple chronic conditions and among Blacks regardless of the number of chronic conditions. Our study has implications for policies aiming to reduce disparities among individuals coping with multiple chronic conditions.

Projection of budgetary savings to US state Medicaid programs from reduced nursing home use due to an Alzheimer's disease treatment.

INTRODUCTION: The approval of a disease-modifying Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment could provide relief to US state budgets that were hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, as mostly Medicare would cover treatment cost, whereas Medicaid would see savings from reduced nursing home use. METHODS: We project savings from 2021 to 2040 with a simulation model from the perspective of state Medicaid programs. RESULTS: Assuming a 40% and 22% relative reduction of disease progression rates with treatment, Medicaid would avoid payments of $186.2 and $93.5 billion for around 1.11 and 0.57 million nursing home patient-years, respectively. The savings correspond to a 5.06% and 2.49%, respectively, relative reduction of Medicaid spending on nursing home care. Higher per capita savings were projected for older states, those with higher Medicaid payment rates, those with more nursing home residents covered by Medicaid, and those with a lower federal contribution. DISCUSSION: States stand to realize substantial savings from a potential AD treatment. A state's health system preparedness to handle the large number of patients will influence the actual magnitude of the savings and how fast they will accrue.

Is Korea Prepared for an Alzheimer's Disease-Modifying Therapy? Assessing the Korean Healthcare System Infrastructure and the Effect of Blood-Based Biomarker Tests.

BACKGROUND: With the rapid demographic change in Korea, Alzheimer's disease has become a primary concern. Recent developments in disease-modifying therapies provide hope that therapy may become available soon. The high disease prevalence and complex evaluation process will create challenges for the healthcare system already burdened by the current pandemic. This study examined the preparedness of the South Korean healthcare system to identify and treat patients when such a therapy becomes available. METHODS: We used a Markov model to simulate a stylized patient's journey. Based on national data and expert input, we presented projections of the diagnosis and treatment wait times and respective queues of patients under treatment and no-treatment scenarios and further simulated the possible option of adopting a blood-based biomarker test. RESULTS: Under the current system, we estimated a peak waiting time of 14 months when a treatment became available, largely because of the limited number of dementia specialists. Adopting a blood-based biomarker test dramatically reduced the initial wait times by more than half. A disease-modifying therapy was estimated to avert 575,000 incident cases in the first 10 years after the treatment entered the market, and a blood-based test further avoided 86,000 additional cases. CONCLUSION: South Korea's healthcare infrastructure requires more preparation for the introduction of a disease-modifying therapy, with the primary capacity limitation being the low number of dementia specialists. The utilization of a blood-based test for Alzheimer's disease biomarkers may be an effective solution.

How Much Value Would a Treatment for Alzheimer's Disease Offer? Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds for Pricing a Disease-Modifying Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Recent trials suggest that disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for Alzheimer's disease may become available soon. With the expected high price and a large patient pool, the budget impact will be substantial. OBJECTIVE: We explore combinations of effectiveness and price under which a DMT is cost-effective. METHODS: We used an open-source model to conduct two-way scenario analyses for both payer and societal perspectives, varying price, and treatment effect size simultaneously. The analysis generates costeffectiveness threshold prices over a potential range of DMT effectiveness in patients aged 65+ with mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease in the US. RESULTS: Under the willingness-to-pay a threshold of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life year and assuming 30% risk reduction relative to the standard of care, the maximum cost-effective price of a DMT per patient per year is ~$22,000 and ~$15,000 from societal and payer perspectives, respectively. CONCLUSION: Joint variation of price and treatment effect size can help assess the cost-effectiveness of a potential Alzheimer's disease treatment.