Predicting cholangiocarcinoma in primary sclerosing cholangitis: using artificial intelligence, clinical and laboratory data.

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) patients have a risk of developing cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Establishing predictive models for CCA in PSC is important. METHODS: In a large cohort of 1,459 PSC patients seen at Mayo Clinic (1993-2020), we quantified the impact of clinical/laboratory variables on CCA development using univariate and multivariate Cox models and predicted CCA using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) approaches. We explored plasma bile acid (BA) levels' predictive power of CCA (subset of 300 patients, BA cohort). RESULTS: Eight significant risk factors (false discovery rate: 20%) were identified with univariate analysis; prolonged inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was the most important one. IBD duration, PSC duration, and total bilirubin remained significant (p < 0.05) with multivariate analysis. Clinical/laboratory variables predicted CCA with cross-validated C-indexes of 0.68-0.71 at different time points of disease, significantly better compared to commonly used PSC risk scores. Lower chenodeoxycholic acid, higher conjugated fraction of lithocholic acid and hyodeoxycholic acid, and higher ratio of cholic acid to chenodeoxycholic acid were predictive of CCA. BAs predicted CCA with a cross-validated C-index of 0.66 (std: 0.11, BA cohort), similar to clinical/laboratory variables (C-index = 0.64, std: 0.11, BA cohort). Combining BAs with clinical/laboratory variables leads to the best average C-index of 0.67 (std: 0.13, BA cohort). CONCLUSIONS: In a large PSC cohort, we identified clinical and laboratory risk factors for CCA development and demonstrated the first AI based predictive models that performed significantly better than commonly used PSC risk scores. More predictive data modalities are needed for clinical adoption of these models.

Environmental chemicals and endogenous metabolites in bile of USA and Norway patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a complex bile duct disorder. Its etiology is incompletely understood, but environmental chemicals likely contribute to risk. Patients with PSC have an altered bile metabolome, which may be influenced by environmental chemicals. This novel study utilized state-of-the-art high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) with bile samples to provide the first characterization of environmental chemicals and metabolomics (collectively, the exposome) in PSC patients located in the United States of America (USA) (n = 24) and Norway (n = 30). First, environmental chemical- and metabolome-wide association studies were conducted to assess geographic-based similarities and differences in the bile of PSC patients. Nine environmental chemicals (false discovery rate, FDR < 0.20) and 3143 metabolic features (FDR < 0.05) differed by site. Next, pathway analysis was performed to identify metabolomic pathways that were similarly and differentially enriched by the site. Fifteen pathways were differentially enriched (P < .05) in the categories of amino acid, glycan, carbohydrate, energy, and vitamin/cofactor metabolism. Finally, chemicals and pathways were integrated to derive exposure-effect correlation networks by site. These networks demonstrate the shared and differential chemical-metabolome associations by site and highlight important pathways that are likely relevant to PSC. The USA patients demonstrated higher environmental chemical bile content and increased associations between chemicals and metabolic pathways than those in Norway. Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-118 and PCB-101 were identified as chemicals of interest for additional investigation in PSC given broad associations with metabolomic pathways in both the USA and Norway patients. Associated pathways include glycan degradation pathways, which play a key role in microbiome regulation and thus may be implicated in PSC pathophysiology.

DNA methylation profile of liver tissue in end-stage cholestatic liver disease.

Aims: In this methylome-wide association study of cholestatic liver diseases (primary sclerosing cholangitis and primary biliary cholangitis), the authors aimed to elucidate changes in methylome and pathway enrichment to identify candidate genes. Patients & methods: Reduced representation bisulfite sequencing was performed on liver tissue from 58 patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (n = 13), primary biliary cholangitis (n = 20), alcoholic liver disease (n = 21) and live liver donors (n = 4). Pathway enrichment and network analysis were used to explore key genes/pathways. Results: Both cholestatic liver diseases were characterized by global hypomethylation, with pathway enrichment demonstrating distinct genes and pathways associated with the methylome. Conclusions: This novel study demonstrated that differential methylation in cholestatic liver disease was associated with unique pathways, suggesting it may drive disease pathogenesis.

While DNA is the permanent code that defines each living being, the epigenome comprises sequences attached to DNA that can change with the environment. This means that abnormal changes to the epigenome may lead to disease and that finding and treating these abnormalities may in turn help treat disease. In this study of liver tissue from individuals with two rare liver diseases, primary sclerosing cholangitis and primary biliary cholangitis, the authors found that the epigenome of these two conditions is distinct, suggesting that the epigenome is linked to the development of these conditions and may be the key to treating them.

Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells From Subjects With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Develop a Senescence Phenotype Following Biliary Differentiation.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic fibroinflammatory disease of the biliary tract characterized by cellular senescence and periportal fibrogenesis. Specific disease features that are cell intrinsic and either genetically or epigenetically mediated remain unclear due in part to a lack of appropriate, patient-specific, in vitro models. Recently, our group developed systems to create induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived cholangiocytes (iDCs) and biliary epithelial organoids (cholangioids). We use these models to investigate whether PSC cholangiocytes are intrinsically predisposed to cellular senescence. Skin fibroblasts from healthy controls and subjects with PSC were reprogrammed to pluripotency, differentiated to cholangiocytes, and subsequently grown in three-dimensional matrigel-based culture to induce formation of cholangioids. RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) on iDCs showed significant differences in gene expression patterns, including enrichment of pathways associated with cell cycle, senescence, and hepatic fibrosis, that correlate with PSC. These pathways also overlapped with RNA-seq analysis on isolated cholangiocytes from subjects with PSC. Exome sequencing on the subjects with PSC revealed genetic variants of unknown significance in the genes identified in these pathways. Three-dimensional culture revealed smaller size, lack of a central lumen, and increased cellular senescence in PSC-derived cholangioids. Congruent with this, PSC-derived iDCs showed increased secretion of the extracellular matrix molecule fibronectin as well as the inflammatory cytokines interleukin-6, and chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 2. Conditioned media (CM) from PSC-derived iDCs more potently activated hepatic stellate cells compared to control CM. Conclusion: We demonstrated efficient generation of iDCs and cholangioids from patients with PSC that show disease-specific features. PSC cholangiocytes are intrinsically predisposed to cellular senescence. These features are unmasked following biliary differentiation of pluripotent stem cells and have functional consequences in epithelial organoids.

High-Resolution Exposomics and Metabolomics Reveals Specific Associations in Cholestatic Liver Diseases.

Progress in development of prognostic and therapeutic options for the rare cholestatic liver diseases, primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), is hampered by limited knowledge of their pathogeneses. In particular, the potential role of hepatotoxic and/or metabolism-altering environmental chemicals in the pathogenesis of these diseases remains relatively unstudied. Moreover, the extent to which metabolic pathways are altered due to ongoing cholestasis and subsequent liver damage or possibly influenced by hepatotoxic chemicals is poorly understood. In this study, we applied a comprehensive exposomics-metabolomics approach to uncover potential pathogenic contributors to PSC and PBC. We used untargeted high-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize a wide range of exogenous chemicals and endogenous metabolites in plasma and tested them for association with disease. Exposome-wide association studies (EWAS) identified environmental chemicals, including pesticides, additives and persistent pollutants, that were associated with PSC and/or PBC, suggesting potential roles for these compounds in disease pathogenesis. Metabolome-wide association studies (MWAS) found disease-associated alterations to amino acid, eicosanoid, lipid, co-factor, nucleotide, mitochondrial and microbial metabolic pathways, many of which were shared between PSC and PBC. Notably, this analysis implicates a potential role of the 5-lipoxygenase pathway in the pathogenesis of these diseases. Finally, EWAS × MWAS network analysis uncovered linkages between environmental agents and disrupted metabolic pathways that provide insight into potential mechanisms for PSC and PBC. Conclusion: This study establishes combined exposomics-metabolomics as a generalizable approach to identify potentially pathogenic environmental agents and enumerate metabolic alterations that may impact PSC and PBC, providing a foundation for diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

A scalable workflow to characterize the human exposome.

Complementing the genome with an understanding of the human exposome is an important challenge for contemporary science and technology. Tens of thousands of chemicals are used in commerce, yet cost for targeted environmental chemical analysis limits surveillance to a few hundred known hazards. To overcome limitations which prevent scaling to thousands of chemicals, we develop a single-step express liquid extraction and gas chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry analysis to operationalize the human exposome. We show that the workflow supports quantification of environmental chemicals in human plasma (200 µL) and tissue (≤100 mg) samples. The method also provides high resolution, sensitivity and selectivity for exposome epidemiology of mass spectral features without a priori knowledge of chemical identity. The simplicity of the method can facilitate harmonization of environmental biomonitoring between laboratories and enable population level human exposome research with limited sample volume.

The PSC scientific community resource: an asset for multi-omics interrogation of primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a rare, chronic cholestatic liver disease that often progresses to end-stage liver disease and/or the development of hepatobiliary neoplasia. Lack of prognostic tools and treatment options for PSC is driven in part by our poor understanding of its pathogenesis, which is thought to be complex, the interaction of genetic variants, environmental influences and biological response throughout the course of disease. The PSC Scientific Community Resource (PSC-SCR) seeks to overcome previous shortcomings by facilitating novel research in PSC with the ultimate goals of individualizing patient care and improving patient outcomes. METHODS: PSC patients who receive their health care at Mayo Clinic or a collaborating site are identified by chart review and invited in person or by mail to participate. Non-Mayo patients are offered enrollment if they provide sufficient access to their medical records to evaluate inclusion/exclusion criteria. Controls without liver disease are identified with assistance of the Mayo Clinic Biobank. Participant consent is obtained at the beginning of the recruitment process by mail-in, electronic or face-to-face protocols. Clinical data is extracted from the medical record by qualified physicians and entered in a custom designed database. Participants fill out a custom-designed, comprehensive questionnaire, which collects scientifically relevant demographic and clinical information. Biospecimens are collected using mail-in kits thar are returned via overnight carrier service and processed by the biospecimen accessioning and processing facility at Mayo Clinic, which coordinates sample transfers and provides required sample preparation services. The resource is currently being utilized to perform omics-scale projects investigating the exposome, metabolome, methylome, immunome and microbiome in PSC. Datasets and residual biospecimens will be shared with researchers proposing scientifically sound PSC-focused research with approval of the appropriate review boards. DISCUSSION: Patient-based studies leveraging the latest technologies for targeted and wide-scale interrogation of multiple omics layers offer promise to accelerate PSC research through discovery of unappreciated aspects of disease pathogenesis. However, the rarity of PSC severely limits such studies. Here we describe our effort to overcome this limitation, the PSC-SCR, a repository of patient biospecimens coupled with clinical and omics data for use by the broader PSC research community.

An international genome-wide meta-analysis of primary biliary cholangitis: Novel risk loci and candidate drugs.

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease in which autoimmune destruction of the small intrahepatic bile ducts eventually leads to cirrhosis. Many patients have inadequate response to licensed medications, motivating the search for novel therapies. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and meta-analyses (GWMA) of PBC have identified numerous risk loci for this condition, providing insight into its aetiology. We undertook the largest GWMA of PBC to date, aiming to identify additional risk loci and prioritise candidate genes for in silico drug efficacy screening. METHODS: We combined new and existing genotype data for 10,516 cases and 20,772 controls from 5 European and 2 East Asian cohorts. RESULTS: We identified 56 genome-wide significant loci (20 novel) including 46 in European, 13 in Asian, and 41 in combined cohorts; and a 57th genome-wide significant locus (also novel) in conditional analysis of the European cohorts. Candidate genes at newly identified loci include FCRL3, INAVA, PRDM1, IRF7, CCR6, CD226, and IL12RB1, which each play key roles in immunity. Pathway analysis reiterated the likely importance of pattern recognition receptor and TNF signalling, JAK-STAT signalling, and differentiation of T helper (TH)1 and TH17 cells in the pathogenesis of this disease. Drug efficacy screening identified several medications predicted to be therapeutic in PBC, some of which are well-established in the treatment of other autoimmune disorders. CONCLUSIONS: This study has identified additional risk loci for PBC, provided a hierarchy of agents that could be trialled in this condition, and emphasised the value of genetic and genomic approaches to drug discovery in complex disorders. LAY SUMMARY: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease that eventually leads to cirrhosis. In this study, we analysed genetic information from 10,516 people with PBC and 20,772 healthy individuals recruited in Canada, China, Italy, Japan, the UK, or the USA. We identified several genetic regions associated with PBC. Each of these regions contains several genes. For each region, we used diverse sources of evidence to help us choose the gene most likely to be involved in causing PBC. We used these 'candidate genes' to help us identify medications that are currently used for treatment of other conditions, which might also be useful for treatment of PBC.

Evaluation of circulating cell-free DNA in cholestatic liver disease using liver-specific methylation markers.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of circulating organ-specific cell-free DNA (cfDNA) provides a sensitive measure of ongoing cell death that could benefit evaluation of the cholestatic liver diseases primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), which lack reliable non-invasive biomarkers. Our goal in this pilot study was to determine whether liver-specific cfDNA levels are increased in PBC and PSC patients relative to controls and in advanced versus early disease, to evaluate their potential as novel disease biomarkers. METHODS: Peripheral blood derived bisulfite-treated DNA was PCR amplified from patients with PBC (n = 48), PSC (n = 48) and controls (n = 96) to evaluate methylation status at 16 CpG sites reported to be specifically unmethylated in liver tissue near the genes IGF2R, ITIH4 and VTN. Amplicons were used to prepare paired end libraries which were sequenced on a MiSeq sequencer. Trimmed reads were aligned and used to determine unmethylation ratios and to calculate concentration of liver-specific cfDNA. Comparisons between groups were performed using the two-tailed Mann-Whitney Test and relationships between variables were evaluated using Pearson's Correlation. RESULTS: Levels of liver-specific cfDNA, as measured at the 3 genetic loci, were increased in PBC and PSC patients relative to controls and in late-stage relative to early-stage patients. As well, cfDNA levels were correlated with levels of alkaline phosphatase, a commonly used biochemical test to evaluate disease severity in liver disease, in patients, but not in controls. CONCLUSIONS: cfDNA offers promise as a non-invasive liquid-biopsy to evaluate liver-specific cell-death in patients with cholestatic liver diseases.

Bile Acid Profiles in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Their Ability to Predict Hepatic Decompensation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Altered bile acid (BA) homeostasis is an intrinsic facet of cholestatic liver diseases, but clinical usefulness of plasma BA assessment in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) remains understudied. We performed BA profiling in a large retrospective cohort of patients with PSC and matched healthy controls, hypothesizing that plasma BA profiles vary among patients and have clinical utility. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Plasma BA profiling was performed in the Clinical Biochemical Genetics Laboratory at Mayo Clinic using a mass spectrometry based assay. Cox proportional hazard (univariate) and gradient boosting machines (multivariable) models were used to evaluate whether BA variables predict 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation (HD; defined as ascites, variceal hemorrhage, or encephalopathy). There were 400 patients with PSC and 302 controls in the derivation cohort (Mayo Clinic) and 108 patients with PSC in the validation cohort (Norwegian PSC Research Center). Patients with PSC had increased BA levels, conjugated fraction, and primary-to-secondary BA ratios relative to controls. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) increased total plasma BA level while lowering cholic acid and chenodeoxycholic acid concentrations. Patients without inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) had primary-to-secondary BA ratios between those of controls and patients with ulcerative colitis. HD risk was associated with increased concentration and conjugated fraction of many BA, whereas higher G:T conjugation ratios were protective. The machine-learning model, PSC-BA profile score (concordance statistic [C-statistic], 0.95), predicted HD better than individual measures, including alkaline phosphatase, and performed well in validation (C-statistic, 0.86). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PSC demonstrated alterations of plasma BA consistent with known mechanisms of cholestasis, UDCA treatment, and IBD. Notably, BA profiles predicted future HD, establishing the clinical potential of BA profiling, which may be suited for use in clinical trials.

Genome-wide resolution peripheral blood methylome profiling reveals signatures for cholestatic liver disease.

Aim: To profile DNA methylation changes of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Materials & methods: Patients with: PBC, PSC with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), PSC without IBD, and age-, sex-matched controls were profiled for methylomes of peripheral blood by reduced representation bisulfite sequencing. Differentially methylated CpG (DMC) and differentially methylated region (DMR) were detected and compared. Results: We identified consistently altered DMCs and DMRs across diseases with involvement in key pathways. Many similarities noted between two subtypes of PSC, interestingly few existed between PBC and PSC. DMRs were highly enriched with transcription factor binding. Top DMC changes were validated in liver tissue of an independent cohort. Conclusion: Methylome profiling provides insights to PBC and PSC.

Single-cell mass cytometry on peripheral blood identifies immune cell subsets associated with primary biliary cholangitis.

The relationship between primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), a chronic cholestatic autoimmune liver disease, and the peripheral immune system remains to be fully understood. Herein, we performed the first mass cytometry (CyTOF)-based, immunophenotyping analysis of the peripheral immune system in PBC at single-cell resolution. CyTOF was performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from PBC patients (n = 33) and age-/sex-matched healthy controls (n = 33) to obtain immune cell abundance and marker expression profiles. Hierarchical clustering methods were applied to identify immune cell types and subsets significantly associated with PBC. Subsets of gamma-delta T cells (CD3+TCRgd+), CD8+ T cells (CD3+CD8+CD161+PD1+), and memory B cells (CD3-CD19+CD20+CD24+CD27+) were found to have lower abundance in PBC than in control. In contrast, higher abundance of subsets of monocytes and naïve B cells were observed in PBC compared to control. Furthermore, several naïve B cell (CD3-CD19+CD20+CD24-CD27-) subsets were significantly higher in PBC patients with cirrhosis (indicative of late-stage disease) than in those without cirrhosis. Alternatively, subsets of memory B cells were lower in abundance in cirrhotic relative to non-cirrhotic PBC patients. Future immunophenotyping investigations could lead to better understanding of PBC pathogenesis and progression, and also to the discovery of novel biomarkers and treatment strategies.

Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Risk Estimate Tool (PREsTo) Predicts Outcomes of the Disease: A Derivation and Validation Study Using Machine Learning.

Improved methods are needed to risk stratify and predict outcomes in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Therefore, we sought to derive and validate a prediction model and compare its performance to existing surrogate markers. The model was derived using 509 subjects from a multicenter North American cohort and validated in an international multicenter cohort (n = 278). Gradient boosting, a machine-based learning technique, was used to create the model. The endpoint was hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, or encephalopathy). Subjects with advanced PSC or cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) at baseline were excluded. The PSC risk estimate tool (PREsTo) consists of nine variables: bilirubin, albumin, serum alkaline phosphatase (SAP) times the upper limit of normal (ULN), platelets, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), hemoglobin, sodium, patient age, and number of years since PSC was diagnosed. Validation in an independent cohort confirms that PREsTo accurately predicts decompensation (C-statistic, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.95) and performed well compared to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (C-statistic, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57-0.84), Mayo PSC risk score (C-statistic, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.77-0.92), and SAP <1.5 × ULN (C-statistic, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.55-0.73). PREsTo continued to be accurate among individuals with a bilirubin <2.0 mg/dL (C-statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.96) and when the score was reapplied at a later course in the disease (C-statistic, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.64-0.95). Conclusion: PREsTo accurately predicts hepatic decompensation (HD) in PSC and exceeds the performance among other widely available, noninvasive prognostic scoring systems.

External validation of the United Kingdom-primary biliary cholangitis risk scores of patients with primary biliary cholangitis treated with ursodeoxycholic acid.

The United Kingdom-Primary Biliary Cholangitis (UK-PBC) risk scores are a set of prognostic models that estimate the risk of end-stage liver disease in patients with PBC at 5-, 10- and 15-year intervals. They have not been externally validated outside the United Kingdom. In this retrospective, external validation study, data were abstracted from outpatient charts and discrimination and calibration of the UK-PBC risk scores were assessed. A total of 464 patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid were included. The median diagnosis age was 52.4 years, and 88% were female patients. The cumulative incidence of events was 6%, 9%, and 15% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Concordance (c-statistic) was 0.88, 0.85, and 0.84 using the 5-, 10- and 15-year risk scores, respectively, which was slightly lower than values observed in the United Kingdom validation cohort. Using the 5-year risk score, more events were observed than predicted (25 versus 16.8; P = 0.046); using the 10-year risk score, there was no difference between the observed and predicted number of events (35 versus 44.9; P = 0.14); conversely, using the 15-year risk score, fewer events were observed than predicted (46 versus 67.5; P = 0.009). Limiting evaluation by the 15-year UK-PBC risk score to those with >10 years of follow-up demonstrated no difference between observed and predicted events. Using the 5-year risk score, patients within the highest quartile had statistically significant worse event-free survival compared to the rest of the cohort: 82% versus 98% at 5 years, 73% versus 97% at 10 years, and 58% versus 93% at 15 years. Conclusion: In patients assessed at a North American tertiary medical center, the UK-PBC risk score had excellent discrimination and was reasonably calibrated both in the short and long term. (Hepatology Communications 2018;2:676-682).

Genetic association analysis identifies variants associated with disease progression in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a genetically complex, inflammatory bile duct disease of largely unknown aetiology often leading to liver transplantation or death. Little is known about the genetic contribution to the severity and progression of PSC. The aim of this study is to identify genetic variants associated with PSC disease progression and development of complications. DESIGN: We collected standardised PSC subphenotypes in a large cohort of 3402 patients with PSC. After quality control, we combined 130 422 single nucleotide polymorphisms of all patients-obtained using the Illumina immunochip-with their disease subphenotypes. Using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, we identified genetic variants associated with binary and time-to-event PSC subphenotypes. RESULTS: We identified genetic variant rs853974 to be associated with liver transplant-free survival (p=6.07×10-9). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a 50.9% (95% CI 41.5% to 59.5%) transplant-free survival for homozygous AA allele carriers of rs853974 compared with 72.8% (95% CI 69.6% to 75.7%) for GG carriers at 10 years after PSC diagnosis. For the candidate gene in the region, RSPO3, we demonstrated expression in key liver-resident effector cells, such as human and murine cholangiocytes and human hepatic stellate cells. CONCLUSION: We present a large international PSC cohort, and report genetic loci associated with PSC disease progression. For liver transplant-free survival, we identified a genome-wide significant signal and demonstrated expression of the candidate gene RSPO3 in key liver-resident effector cells. This warrants further assessments of the role of this potential key PSC modifier gene.

Patient Age, Sex, and Inflammatory Bowel Disease Phenotype Associate With Course of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is an orphan hepatobiliary disorder associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to estimate the risk of disease progression based on distinct clinical phenotypes in a large international cohort of patients with PSC. METHODS: We performed a retrospective outcome analysis of patients diagnosed with PSC from 1980 through 2010 at 37 centers in Europe, North America, and Australia. For each patient, we collected data on sex, clinician-reported age at and date of PSC and IBD diagnoses, phenotypes of IBD and PSC, and date and indication of IBD-related surgeries. The primary and secondary endpoints were liver transplantation or death (LTD) and hepatopancreatobiliary malignancy, respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to determine the effects of individual covariates on rates of clinical events, with time-to-event analysis ascertained through Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: Of the 7121 patients in the cohort, 2616 met the primary endpoint (median time to event of 14.5 years) and 721 developed hepatopancreatobiliary malignancy. The most common malignancy was cholangiocarcinoma (n = 594); patients of advanced age at diagnosis had an increased incidence compared with younger patients (incidence rate: 1.2 per 100 patient-years for patients younger than 20 years old, 6.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 21-30 years old, 9.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 31-40 years old, 14.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 41-50 years old, 15.2 per 100 patient-years for patients 51-60 years old, and 21.0 per 100 patient-years for patients older than 60 years). Of all patients with PSC studied, 65.5% were men, 89.8% had classical or large-duct disease, and 70.0% developed IBD at some point. Assessing the development of IBD as a time-dependent covariate, Crohn's disease and no IBD (both vs ulcerative colitis) were associated with a lower risk of LTD (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.62; P < .001 and HR, 0.90; P = .03, respectively) and malignancy (HR, 0.68; P = .008 and HR, 0.77; P = .004, respectively). Small-duct PSC was associated with a lower risk of LTD or malignancy compared with classic PSC (HR, 0.30 and HR, 0.15, respectively; both P < .001). Female sex was also associated with a lower risk of LTD or malignancy (HR, 0.88; P = .002 and HR, 0.68; P < .001, respectively). In multivariable analyses assessing the primary endpoint, small-duct PSC characterized a low-risk phenotype in both sexes (adjusted HR for men, 0.23; P < .001 and adjusted HR for women, 0.48; P = .003). Conversely, patients with ulcerative colitis had an increased risk of liver disease progression compared with patients with Crohn's disease (HR, 1.56; P < .001) or no IBD (HR, 1.15; P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from individual patients with PSC worldwide, we found significant variation in clinical course associated with age at diagnosis, sex, and ductal and IBD subtypes. The survival estimates provided might be used to estimate risk levels for patients with PSC and select patients for clinical trials.