The Burden of Disease due to COVID-19 (BoCO-19): A study protocol for a secondary analysis of surveillance data in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had an extensive impact on public health worldwide. However, in many countries burden of disease indicators for COVID-19 have not yet been calculated or used for monitoring. The present study protocol describes an approach developed in the project "The Burden of Disease due to COVID-19. Towards a harmonization of population health metrics for the surveillance of dynamic outbreaks" (BoCO-19). The process of data collection and aggregation across 14 different countries and sub-national regions in Southern and Eastern Europe and Central Asia is described, as well as the methodological approaches used. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study implemented in BoCO-19 is a secondary data analysis, using information from national surveillance systems as part of mandatory reporting on notifiable diseases. A customized data collection template is used to gather aggregated data on population size as well as COVID-19 cases and deaths. Years of life lost (YLL), as one component of the number of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY), are calculated as described in a recently proposed COVID-19 disease model (the 'Burden-EU' model) for the calculation of DALY. All-cause mortality data are collected for excess mortality sensitivity analyses. For the calculation of Years lived with disability (YLD), the Burden-EU model is adapted based on recent evidence. Because Covid-19 cases vary in terms of disease severity, the possibility and suitability of applying a uniform severity distribution of cases across all countries and sub-national regions will be explored. An approach recently developed for the Global Burden of Disease Study, that considers post-acute consequences of COVID-19, is likely to be adopted. Findings will be compared to explore the quality and usability of the existing data, to identify trends across age-groups and sexes and to formulate recommendations concerning potential improvements in data availability and quality. DISCUSSION: BoCO-19 serves as a collaborative platform in order to build international capacity for the calculation of burden of disease indicators, and to support national experts in the analysis and interpretation of country-specific data, including their strengths and weaknesses. Challenges include inherent differences in data collection and reporting systems between countries, as well as assumptions that have to be made during the calculation process.

Retrospective Analysis of Six Years of Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance and Polio Vaccine Coverage Reported by Italy, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Malta, and Greece.

Here we analyzed six years of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, from 2015 to 2020, of 10 countries linked to the WHO Regional Reference Laboratory, at the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Italy. The analysis also comprises the polio vaccine coverage available (2015-2019) and enterovirus (EV) identification and typing data. Centralized Information System for Infectious Diseases and Laboratory Data Management System databases were used to obtain data on AFP indicators and laboratory performance and countries' vaccine coverage from 2015 to 2019. EV isolation, identification, and typing were performed by each country according to WHO protocols. Overall, a general AFP underreporting was observed. Non-Polio Enterovirus (NPEV) typing showed a high heterogeneity: over the years, several genotypes of coxsackievirus and echovirus have been identified. The polio vaccine coverage, for the data available, differs among countries. This evaluation allows for the collection, for the first time, of data from the countries of the Balkan area regarding AFP surveillance and polio vaccine coverage. The need, for some countries, to enhance the surveillance systems and to promote the polio vaccine uptake, in order to maintain the polio-free status, is evident.

Programmatic Mapping to Estimate Size, Distribution, and Dynamics of Key Populations in Kosovo.

BACKGROUND: The burden of an HIV epidemic in Kosovo lies among the key populations (KPs) of female sex workers (FSWs), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWIDs). The available interventions for KPs are fragmented and lack sufficient and appropriate granularity of information needed to develop large-scale outreach programs. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the size and distribution of these populations to create evidence for developing action plans for HIV prevention. METHODS: The programmatic mapping approach was used to collect systematic information from key informants, including geographic and virtual locations in 26 municipalities of Kosovo between February to April 2016. In level 1, information was gathered about KPs' numbers and locations through 1537 key informant interviews within each municipality. Level 2 involved validating these spots by conducting another 976 interviews with KPs congregating at those spots. Population size estimates were calculated for each spot, and finally a national-level estimate was developed, which was corrected for duplication and overlaps. RESULTS: Of the estimated 6814 MSM (range: 6445 to 7117), nearly 4940 operate through the internet owing to the large stigma and discrimination against same-sex relationships. Geo-based MSM (who operate through physical spots) congregate at a few spots with large spot sizes (13.3 MSM/spot). Three-fourths of the MSM are distributed in 5 major municipalities. Fridays and Saturdays are the peak days of operation; however, the number only increases by 5%. A significant number are involved in sex work, that is, provide sex to other men for money. PWIDs are largely geo-based; 4973 (range: 3932 to 6015) PWIDs of the total number of 5819 (range: 4777 to 6860) visit geographical spots, with an average spot size of 7.1. In smaller municipalities, they mostly inject in residential locations. The numbers stay stable during the entire week, and there are no peak days. Of the 5037 (range: 4213 to 5860) FSWs, 20% use cell phones, whereas 10% use websites to connect with clients. The number increases by 25% on weekends, especially in larger municipalities where sex work is mostly concentrated. Other than a few street-based spots, most spots are establishments run by pimps, which is reflective of the highly institutionalized, structured, and organized FSW network. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides valuable information about the population size estimates as well as dynamics of each KP, which is the key to developing effective HIV prevention strategies. The information should be utilized to develop microplans and effectively provide HIV prevention services to various KPs.