Bamboo, climate change and forest use: A critical combination for southwestern Amazonian forests?

About 160 000 km2 of forests in the border zone between Brazil and Peru are dominated by semi-scandent bamboos (Guadua spp.). We argue that both predicted decreased precipitation during the dry season and widespread anthropogenic disturbances will significantly increase the distribution and biomass of bamboos in the area. Seasonal dryness favours the growth of evergreen bamboos in relation to trees that shed their leaves during the dry season. Disturbance can be beneficial for the bamboo because, as a clonal plant, it is often able to recover more rapidly than trees. It also withstands dry season better than many trees. The bamboo life cycle ends in a mass mortality event every 28 years, producing potential fuel for a forest fire. Presently, natural forest fires hardly exist in the area. However, in the projected future climate with more pronounced dry season and with increased fuel load after bamboo die-off events the forests may start to catch fire that has escaped from inhabited areas or even started naturally. Fires can kill trees, thus further increasing the fuel load of the forest. As a result, the landscape may start to convert to a savanna ecosystem.

Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region.

Surface layer salinity gradients and flow patterns in the archipelago coast of SW Finland, northern Baltic Sea.

The highly fragmented Archipelago Sea in the northern Baltic Sea forms part of a sill area between two large sea basins. In addition to the water exchange between the basins, its waters are influenced by runoff, and thus the sea area has both sill and estuarine characteristics. We studied surface layer salinity gradients and their applicability in defining water exchange patterns through and within the region. A broad scale salinity pattern was detected during two sequential years. The spreading of fresh water in the spring was succeeded by a gradual increase in salinity during the summer. Long term data revealed a non-seasonal salinity fluctuation and diminished salinity stratification in the central and northern parts of the study area. We concluded that temporally unrepresentative mean values of salinity alone are inadequate for the purposes of coastal management in this region. In addition, both the range of variation and persistence of the conditions define the character of the transitional and coastal waters.

Shoot dynamics of the giant grass Gynerium sagittatum in Peruvian Amazon floodplains, a clonal plant that does show self-thinning.

The giant rhizomatous grass Gynerium sagittatum is an early successional species that forms dense monocultures in Peruvian Amazon floodplains. We studied the shoot population structures by recording shoot densities and shoot heights. Leaf areas and stem volumes were allometrically estimated. Stands of two varieties of G. sagittatum were examined that differ in height and in the degree of shoot branching. In stands of increasing age, marked decreases in shoot densities were accompanied with an increase in mean shoot size. Self-thinning was indicated by the negative correlation between log stem volume per unit ground area and log shoot density, significant at least for one of the two varieties. The difference in thinning slope between the varieties could be largely accounted for by their different shoot geometry, as was revealed by calculations based on the allometric model of Weller (1987b). The relationship between log leaf area per shoot and log shoot density was significantly negative with slopes close to -1. Shoot size inequalities decreased with increasing mean stem volume per shoot, probably as a result of density-dependent mortality of the smaller shoots. All of these results accord with expectations for shoot self-thining. Gynerium sagittatum is the first clear example of a clonal plant species that exhibits self-thining in natural monospecific stands. It is argued that self-thinning occurs in this giant tropical grass because its shoots are perennial and do not experience seasonal die-back (periodic density-independent mortality), in contrast to many of the clonal plant species that have been studies so far.