The InterModel Vigorish as a Lens for Understanding (and Quantifying) the Value of Item Response Models for Dichotomously Coded Items.

The deployment of statistical models-such as those used in item response theory-necessitates the use of indices that are informative about the degree to which a given model is appropriate for a specific data context. We introduce the InterModel Vigorish (IMV) as an index that can be used to quantify accuracy for models of dichotomous item responses based on the improvement across two sets of predictions (i.e., predictions from two item response models or predictions from a single such model relative to prediction based on the mean). This index has a range of desirable features: It can be used for the comparison of non-nested models and its values are highly portable and generalizable. We use this fact to compare predictive performance across a variety of simulated data contexts and also demonstrate qualitative differences in behavior between the IMV and other common indices (e.g., the AIC and RMSEA). We also illustrate the utility of the IMV in empirical applications with data from 89 dichotomous item response datasets. These empirical applications help illustrate how the IMV can be used in practice and substantiate our claims regarding various aspects of model performance. These findings indicate that the IMV may be a useful indicator in psychometrics, especially as it allows for easy comparison of predictions across a variety of contexts.

Development of the Alpha Rhythm Is Linked to Visual White Matter Pathways and Visual Detection Performance.

Alpha is the strongest electrophysiological rhythm in awake humans at rest. Despite its predominance in the EEG signal, large variations can be observed in alpha properties during development, with an increase in alpha frequency over childhood and adulthood. Here, we tested the hypothesis that these changes in alpha rhythm are related to the maturation of visual white matter pathways. We capitalized on a large diffusion MRI (dMRI)-EEG dataset (dMRI n = 2,747, EEG n = 2,561) of children and adolescents of either sex (age range, 5-21 years old) and showed that maturation of the optic radiation specifically accounts for developmental changes of alpha frequency. Behavioral analyses also confirmed that variations of alpha frequency are related to maturational changes in visual perception. The present findings demonstrate the close link between developmental variations in white matter tissue properties, electrophysiological responses, and behavior.

Ubiquitous bias and false discovery due to model misspecification in analysis of statistical interactions: The role of the outcome's distribution and metric properties.

Studies of interaction effects are of great interest because they identify crucial interplay between predictors in explaining outcomes. Previous work has considered several potential sources of statistical bias and substantive misinterpretation in the study of interactions, but less attention has been devoted to the role of the outcome variable in such research. Here, we consider bias and false discovery associated with estimates of interaction parameters as a function of the distributional and metric properties of the outcome variable. We begin by illustrating that, for a variety of noncontinuously distributed outcomes (i.e., binary and count outcomes), attempts to use the linear model for recovery leads to catastrophic levels of bias and false discovery. Next, focusing on transformations of normally distributed variables (i.e., censoring and noninterval scaling), we show that linear models again produce spurious interaction effects. We provide explanations offering geometric and algebraic intuition as to why interactions are a challenge for these incorrectly specified models. In light of these findings, we make two specific recommendations. First, a careful consideration of the outcome's distributional properties should be a standard component of interaction studies. Second, researchers should approach research focusing on interactions with heightened levels of scrutiny. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling Interaction and Dispersion Effects in the Analysis of Gene-by-Environment Interaction.

Genotype-by-environment interaction (GxE) studies probe heterogeneity in response to risk factors or interventions. Popular methods for estimation of GxE examine multiplicative interactions between individual genetic and environmental measures. However, risk factors and interventions may modulate the total variance of an epidemiological outcome that itself represents the aggregation of many other etiological components. We expand the traditional GxE model to directly model genetic and environmental moderation of the dispersion of the outcome. We derive a test statistic, [Formula: see text], for inferring whether an interaction identified between individual genetic and environmental measures represents a more general pattern of moderation of the total variance in the phenotype by either the genetic or the environmental measure. We validate our method via extensive simulation, and apply it to investigate genotype-by-birth year interactions for Body Mass Index (BMI) with polygenic scores in the Health and Retirement Study (N = 11,586) and individual genetic variants in the UK Biobank (N = 380,605). We find that changes in the penetrance of a genome-wide polygenic score for BMI across birth year are partly representative of a more general pattern of expanding BMI variation across generations. Three individual variants found to be more strongly associated with BMI among later born individuals, were also associated with the magnitude of variability in BMI itself within any given birth year, suggesting that they may confer general sensitivity of BMI to a range of unmeasured factors beyond those captured by birth year. We introduce an expanded GxE regression model that explicitly models genetic and environmental moderation of the dispersion of the outcome under study. This approach can determine whether GxE interactions identified are specific to the measured predictors or represent a more general pattern of moderation of the total variance in the outcome by the genetic and environmental measures.

Rapid online assessment of reading ability.

An accurate model of the factors that contribute to individual differences in reading ability depends on data collection in large, diverse and representative samples of research participants. However, that is rarely feasible due to the constraints imposed by standardized measures of reading ability which require test administration by trained clinicians or researchers. Here we explore whether a simple, two-alternative forced choice, time limited lexical decision task (LDT), self-delivered through the web-browser, can serve as an accurate and reliable measure of reading ability. We found that performance on the LDT is highly correlated with scores on standardized measures of reading ability such as the Woodcock-Johnson Letter Word Identification test (r = 0.91, disattenuated r = 0.94). Importantly, the LDT reading ability measure is highly reliable (r = 0.97). After optimizing the list of words and pseudowords based on item response theory, we found that a short experiment with 76 trials (2-3 min) provides a reliable (r = 0.95) measure of reading ability. Thus, the self-administered, Rapid Online Assessment of Reading ability (ROAR) developed here overcomes the constraints of resource-intensive, in-person reading assessment, and provides an efficient and automated tool for effective online research into the mechanisms of reading (dis)ability.