Age and sex specific thresholds for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease and clinical decision making: prospective open cohort study.

Objective: To quantify the potential advantages of using 10 year risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease, in combination with risk thresholds specific to both age and sex, to identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease for allocation of statin treatment. Design: Prospective open cohort study. Setting: Primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, linked with hospital admissions from Hospital Episode Statistics and national mortality records from the Office for National Statistics in England, 1 January 2006 to 31 May 2019. Participants: 1 046 736 individuals (aged 40-85 years) with no cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or a history of statin treatment at baseline using data from electronic health records. Main outcome measures: 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease, calculated with version 2 of the QRISK cardiovascular disease risk algorithm (QRISK2), with two main strategies to identify individuals at high risk: in strategy A, estimated risk was a fixed cut-off value of ≥10% (ie, as per the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines); in strategy B, estimated risk was ≥10% or ≥90th centile of age and sex specific risk distributions. Results: Compared with strategy A, strategy B stratified 20 241 (149.8%) more women aged ≤53 years and 9832 (150.2%) more men aged ≤47 years as having a high risk of cardiovascular disease; for all other ages the strategies were the same. Assuming that treatment with statins would be initiated in those identified as high risk, differences in the estimated gain in cardiovascular disease-free life years from statin treatment for strategy B versus strategy A were 0.14 and 0.16 years for women and men aged 40 years, respectively; among individuals aged 40-49 years, the numbers needed to treat to prevent one cardiovascular disease event for strategy B versus strategy A were 39 versus 21 in women and 19 versus 15 in men, respectively. Conclusions: This study quantified the potential gains in cardiovascular disease-free life years when implementing prevention strategies based on age and sex specific risk thresholds instead of a fixed risk threshold for allocation of statin treatment. Such gains should be weighed against the costs of treating more younger people with statins for longer.

Risk estimation for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: considerations for appropriate risk prediction model selection.

Cardiovascular diseases remain the number one cause of death globally. Cardiovascular disease risk scores are an integral tool in primary prevention, being used to identify individuals at the highest risk and guide the assignment of preventive interventions. Available risk scores differ substantially in terms of the population sample data sources used for their derivation and, consequently, in the absolute risks they assign to individuals. Differences in cardiovascular disease epidemiology between the populations contributing to the development of risk scores, and the target populations in which they are applied, can result in overestimation or underestimation of cardiovascular disease risks for individuals, and poorly informed clinical decisions. Given the wide plethora of cardiovascular disease risk scores available, identification of an appropriate risk score for a target population can be challenging. This Review provides an up-to-date overview of guideline-recommended cardiovascular disease risk scores from global, regional, and national contexts, evaluates their comparative characteristics and qualities, and provides guidance on selection of an appropriate risk score.

Randomised controlled trial of population screening for atrial fibrillation in people aged 70 years and over to reduce stroke: protocol for the SAFER trial.

INTRODUCTION: There is a lack of evidence that the benefits of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) outweigh the harms. Following the completion of the Screening for Atrial Fibrillation with ECG to Reduce stroke (SAFER) pilot trial, the aim of the main SAFER trial is to establish whether population screening for AF reduces incidence of stroke risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Approximately 82 000 people aged 70 years and over and not on oral anticoagulation are being recruited from general practices in England. Patients on the palliative care register or residents in a nursing home are excluded. Eligible people are identified using electronic patient records from general practices and sent an invitation and consent form to participate by post. Consenting participants are randomised at a ratio of 2:1 (control:intervention) with clustering by household. Those randomised to the intervention arm are sent an information leaflet inviting them to participate in screening, which involves use of a handheld single-lead ECG four times a day for 3 weeks. ECG traces identified by an algorithm as possible AF are reviewed by cardiologists. Participants with AF are seen by a general practitioner for consideration of anticoagulation. The primary outcome is stroke. Major secondary outcomes are: death, major bleeding and cardiovascular events. Follow-up will be via electronic health records for an average of 4 years. The primary analysis will be by intention-to-treat using time-to-event modelling. Results from this trial will be combined with follow-up data from the cluster-randomised pilot trial by fixed-effects meta-analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The London-Central National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (19/LO/1597) provided ethical approval. Dissemination will include public-friendly summaries, reports and engagement with the UK National Screening Committee. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN72104369.