The protective effect of dietary folate intake on gastric cancer is modified by alcohol consumption: A pooled analysis of the StoP Consortium.

Dietary folate intake has been identified as a potentially modifiable factor of gastric cancer (GC) risk, although the evidence is still inconsistent. We evaluate the association between dietary folate intake and the risk of GC as well as the potential modification effect of alcohol consumption. We pooled data for 2829 histologically confirmed GC cases and 8141 controls from 11 case-control studies from the international Stomach Cancer Pooling Consortium. Dietary folate intake was estimated using food frequency questionnaires. We used linear mixed models with random intercepts for each study to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Higher folate intake was associated with a lower risk of GC, although this association was not observed among participants who consumed >2.0 alcoholic drinks/day. The OR for the highest quartile of folate intake, compared with the lowest quartile, was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.67-0.90, P-trend = 0.0002). The OR per each quartile increment was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.87-0.96) and, per every 100 µg/day of folate intake, was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.95). There was a significant interaction between folate intake and alcohol consumption (P-interaction = 0.02). The lower risk of GC associated with higher folate intake was not observed in participants who consumed >2.0 drinks per day, ORQ4v Q1 = 1.15 (95% CI, 0.85-1.56), and the OR100 µg/day = 1.02 (95% CI, 0.92-1.15). Our study supports a beneficial effect of folate intake on GC risk, although the consumption of >2.0 alcoholic drinks/day counteracts this beneficial effect.

Effects of short-term air pollution exposure on symptoms development in the course of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Lately a potential detrimental effect of air pollution to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis emerged. We aimed to assess the effects of short-term air pollution exposure to the clinical course of IPF. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: IPF patients were followed intensively for four nonconsecutive study periods between 13 July 2020 and 5 September 2021. Short-term exposure to O3, NO2 and PM10 concentrations was estimated using spatio-temporal land use regression models. Associations among symptoms, lung function, oxygen saturation, and short-term personal air pollutant exposure were assessed through multiple mixed effects logistic regression models. RESULTS: Data for up to 24 IPF patients (mean age: 72.2 ± 7.6 years) were analyzed. We detected positive significant associations between cough and a 10 µg/m3 increase in same day mean level of NO2 (OR = 1.59, 95%CI: 1.00-2.53), PM10 (OR = 2.42, 95%CI: 1.54-3.79), and O3 (OR = 1.63, 95%CI: 1.14-2.32). A 10 µg/m3 increase in same day mean level of NO2 was also associated with the risk of appearance of wheezing (OR = 3.01, 95%CI: 1.00-9.04), while exposure to O3 was associated with common cold (OR = 6.30, 95%CI: 3.59-11.07). No significant associations were detected between short-term exposure to air pollutants and forced vital capacity or saturation of oxygen. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term exposure to increased concentrations of air pollutants is an independent risk factor for IPF symptoms' aggravation.

Yoghurt Intake and Gastric Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of 16 Studies of the StoP Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Yoghurt can modify gastrointestinal disease risk, possibly acting on gut microbiota. Our study aimed at exploring the under-investigated association between yoghurt and gastric cancer (GC). METHODS: We pooled data from 16 studies from the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project. Total yoghurt intake was derived from food frequency questionnaires. We calculated study-specific odds ratios (ORs) of GC and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for increasing categories of yoghurt consumption using univariate and multivariable unconditional logistic regression models. A two-stage analysis, with a meta-analysis of the pooled adjusted data, was conducted. RESULTS: The analysis included 6278 GC cases and 14,181 controls, including 1179 cardia and 3463 non-cardia, 1191 diffuse and 1717 intestinal cases. The overall meta-analysis revealed no association between increasing portions of yoghurt intake (continuous) and GC (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.94-1.02). When restricting to cohort studies, a borderline inverse relationship was found (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88-0.99). The adjusted and unadjusted OR were 0.92 (95% CI = 0.85-0.99) and 0.78 (95% CI = 0.73-0.84) for any vs. no yoghurt consumption and GC risk. The OR for 1 category of increase in yoghurt intake was 0.96 (95% CI = 0.91-1.02) for cardia, 1.03 (95% CI = 1.00-1.07) for non-cardia, 1.12 (95% CI = 1.07-1.19) for diffuse and 1.02 (95% CI = 0.97-1.06) for intestinal GC. No effect was seen within hospital-based and population-based studies, nor in men or women. CONCLUSIONS: We found no association between yoghurt and GC in the main adjusted models, despite sensitivity analyses suggesting a protective effect. Additional studies should further address this association.

COVID-19 in patients with pulmonary alveolar proteinosis: a European multicentre study.

Adult PAP patients experience similar #COVID19 rates to the general population, and high rates of hospitalisation and deaths, underscoring their vulnerability and the need for measures to prevent infection. The impact of iGM-CSF must be considered. https://bit.ly/3M0wKnZ.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Surgical Treatment of Resectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in Greece.

Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has posed an unprecedented challenge to health systems, and has significantly affected the healthcare of lung cancer patients. The aim of our study was to assess the impact of COVID-19 on early lung cancer patients' surgical treatment. Methods: All consecutive patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer eligible for surgical treatment stage I/II and resectable stage III, referred to our department during the first wave of COVID-19 between February to May 2020, were included and compared with those on the exact corresponding quarter in 2019, one year before the pandemic. Waiting time to surgical treatment, increase of tumor's size and increase on lung cancer stage were recorded and compared. All subjects were followed up for 12 months. Multiple linear and logistic regression models were applied to assess the differences in the management of the studied groups adjusting for potential confounders. Results: Sixty-one patients with early-stage lung cancer were included in the study; 28 (median age 67 years, SD: 7.1) during the pandemic and 33 (median age 67.1 years, SD: 7.5) one year earlier. A significantly longer period of waiting for treatment and an increase in tumor size were observed during the pandemic compared to before the pandemic [median time 47 days, interquartile rate (IQR): 23−100] vs. [median time 18 days, IQR: 11−23], p < 0.001. No significant differences were detected in the increase of the stage of lung cancer between the subgroups. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on surgical and oncological care, leading to significant delays on treatment and an increase in tumor size in early-stage lung cancer patients.

Pulmonary hemorrhage in patients receiving anti-platelets- a case series and a suggested therapeutic algorithm.

Antiplatelet therapy including aspirin and thienopyridine agents (such as clopidogrel, prasugrel and ticagrelor) are often used in patients with coronary disease. Pulmonary hemorrhage due to antiplatelet therapy although very rare, when excessive, is a life-threatening event. So far, there is lack of specific guidelines for the management of these patients. We report a case series of 5 patients receiving antiplatelet therapy who were admitted to the hospital due to pulmonary hemorrhage related to antiplatelet therapy. We also propose an algorithm on the management of these patients taking into consideration the balance between thrombotic and bleeding risk and the severity of the hemorrhage.

Tea consumption and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis from the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from epidemiological studies on the role of tea drinking in gastric cancer risk remains inconsistent. We aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between tea consumption and gastric cancer in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium. METHODS: A total of 9438 cases and 20,451 controls from 22 studies worldwide were included. Odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of gastric cancer for regular versus non-regular tea drinkers were estimated by one and two-stage modelling analyses, including terms for sex, age and the main recognised risk factors for gastric cancer. RESULTS: Compared to non-regular drinkers, the estimated adjusted pooled OR for regular tea drinkers was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.97). When the amount of tea consumed was considered, the OR for consumption of 1-2 cups/day was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94-1.09) and for >3 cups/day was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.80-1.03). Stronger inverse associations emerged among regular drinkers in China and Japan (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.49-0.91) where green tea is consumed, in subjects with H. pylori infection (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.58-0.80), and for gastric cardia cancer (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49-0.84). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate a weak inverse association between tea consumption and gastric cancer.

Allium vegetables intake and the risk of gastric cancer in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

BACKGROUND: The role of allium vegetables on gastric cancer (GC) risk remains unclear. METHODS: We evaluated whether higher intakes of allium vegetables reduce GC risk using individual participant data from 17 studies participating in the "Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project", including 6097 GC cases and 13,017 controls. Study-specific odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using a two-stage modelling approach. RESULTS: Total allium vegetables intake was inversely associated with GC risk. The pooled OR for the highest versus the lowest study-specific tertile of consumption was 0.71 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.56-0.90), with substantial heterogeneity across studies (I2 > 50%). Pooled ORs for high versus low consumption were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.55-0.86) for onions and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75-0.93) for garlic. The inverse association with allium vegetables was evident in Asian (OR 0.50, 95% CI, 0.29-0.86) but not European (OR 0.96, 95% CI, 0.81-1.13) and American (OR 0.66, 95% CI, 0.39-1.11) studies. Results were consistent across all other strata. CONCLUSIONS: In a worldwide consortium of epidemiological studies, we found an inverse association between allium vegetables and GC, with a stronger association seen in Asian studies. The heterogeneity of results across geographic regions and possible residual confounding suggest caution in results interpretation.

Genotype-Phenotype Relationships in Inheritable Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Greek National Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Monogenic and polygenic inheritances are evidenced for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Pathogenic variations in surfactant protein-related genes, telomere-related genes (TRGs), and a single-nucleotide polymorphism in the promoter of MUC5B gene encoding mucin 5B (rs35705950 T risk allele) are reported. This French-Greek collaborative study, Gen-Phen-Re-GreekS in inheritable IPF (iIPF), aimed to investigate genetic components and patients' characteristics in the Greek national IPF cohort with suspected heritability. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 150 patients with familial PF, personal-family extrapulmonary disease suggesting short telomere syndrome, and/or young age IPF were analyzed. RESULTS: MUC5B rs35705950 T risk allele was detected in 103 patients (90 heterozygous, 13 homozygous, allelic frequency of 39%), monoallelic TRG pathogenic variations in 19 patients (8 TERT, 5 TERC, 2 RTEL1, 2 PARN, 1 NOP10, and 1 NHP2), and biallelic ABCA3 pathogenic variations in 3. Overlapping MUC5B rs35705950 T risk allele and TRG pathogenic variations were shown in 11 patients (5 TERT, 3 TERC, 1 PARN, 1 NOP10, and 1 NHP2), MUC5B rs35705950 T risk allele, and biallelic ABCA3 pathogenic variations in 2. In 38 patients, neither MUC5B rs35705950 T risk allele nor TRG pathogenic variations were detectable. Kaplan-Meier curves showed differences in time-to-death (p = 0.025) where patients with MUC5B rs35705950 T risk allele alone or in combination with TRG pathogenic variations presented better prognosis. CONCLUSION: The Gen-Phen-Re-GreekS in iIPF identified multiple and overlapping genetic components including the rarest, underlying disease's genetic "richesse," complexity and heterogeneity. Time-to-death differences may relate to diverse IPF pathogenetic mechanisms implicating "personalized" medical care driven by genotypes in the near future.

Coffee consumption and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis from the Stomach cancer Pooling Project consortium.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate and quantify the relationship between coffee and gastric cancer using a uniquely large dataset from an international consortium of observational studies on gastric cancer, including data from 18 studies, for a total of 8198 cases and 21 419 controls. METHODS: A two-stage approach was used to obtain the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for coffee drinkers versus never or rare drinkers. A one-stage logistic mixed-effects model with a random intercept for each study was used to estimate the dose-response relationship. Estimates were adjusted for sex, age and the main recognized risk factors for gastric cancer. RESULTS: Compared to never or rare coffee drinkers, the estimated pooled OR for coffee drinkers was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.94-1.13). When the amount of coffee intake was considered, the pooled ORs were 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.03) for drinkers of 1-2 cups per day, 0.95 (95% CI, 0.82-1.10) for 3-4 cups, and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.79-1.15) for five or more cups. An OR of 1.20 (95% CI, 0.91-1.58) was found for heavy coffee drinkers (seven or more cups of caffeinated coffee per day). A positive association emerged for high coffee intake (five or more cups per day) for gastric cardia cancer only. CONCLUSIONS: These findings better quantify the previously available evidence of the absence of a relevant association between coffee consumption and gastric cancer.

Prediagnostic alterations in circulating bile acid profiles in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Bile acids (BAs) play different roles in cancer development. Some are carcinogenic and BA signaling is also involved in various metabolic, inflammatory and immune-related processes. The liver is the primary site of BA synthesis. Liver dysfunction and microbiome compositional changes, such as during hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, may modulate BA metabolism increasing concentration of carcinogenic BAs. Observations from prospective cohorts are sparse. We conducted a study (233 HCC case-control pairs) nested within a large observational prospective cohort with blood samples taken at recruitment when healthy with follow-up over time for later cancer development. A targeted metabolomics method was used to quantify 17 BAs (primary/secondary/tertiary; conjugated/unconjugated) in prediagnostic plasma. Odd ratios (OR) for HCC risk associations were calculated by multivariable conditional logistic regression models. Positive HCC risk associations were observed for the molar sum of all BAs (ORdoubling  = 2.30, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.76-3.00), and choline- and taurine-conjugated BAs. Relative concentrations of BAs showed positive HCC risk associations for glycoholic acid and most taurine-conjugated BAs. We observe an association between increased HCC risk and higher levels of major circulating BAs, from several years prior to tumor diagnosis and after multivariable adjustment for confounders and liver functionality. Increase in BA concentration is accompanied by a shift in BA profile toward higher proportions of taurine-conjugated BAs, indicating early alterations of BA metabolism with HCC development. Future studies are needed to assess BA profiles for improved stratification of patients at high HCC risk and to determine whether supplementation with certain BAs may ameliorate liver dysfunction.

Prevalence of tobacco smoking and association with other unhealthy lifestyle risk factors in the general population of Greece: Results from the EMENO study.

INTRODUCTION: The EMENO (National Morbidity and Risk Factors) survey is one of the first and most representative population-based surveys in Greece due to its study design and sampling procedure. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of smoking, secondhand smoking (SHS) and their potential associations with other socioeconomic and unhealthy lifestyle risk factors. METHODS: EMENO is a cross-sectional health status survey conducted in Greece from May 2013 to June 2016. The survey was performed using face-to-face interviews and enrolled 6006 adults. Data were collected through questionnaires administered by trained interviewers. Current smoking (CS) and SHS were based on self-reporting. Analysis accounted for study design. RESULTS: Information on smoking was available for 5862 individuals (97.6%). Overall, 37.8% were current and 16.1% former smokers. More males (44.3%) than females (31.6%) were current smokers. CS increased during adulthood and declined sharply in the elderly (p<0.001). Smoking initiation by the age of 17 years was reported by 48.7% of males and 36.2% of females. Multivariable analysis showed that higher alcohol consumption (>7 glasses/ week, OR=2.52; 95% CI: 1.97-3.23) and lower education level in men were positively associated with ever smoking. Moreover, women aged >35 years and respondents with low adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD) (high/ low, OR= 0.35; 95% CI: 0.21-0.58) had higher odds to be current smokers than former smokers. Finally, the overall prevalence of exposure to SHS at work, home and public places was 38.8%, 30% and 44.6 %, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Unhealthy lifestyles of smokers, increased rates of CS in vulnerable groups, such as females and young adults, and early age of smoking initiation constitute alarming public health issues in Greece.

Long-term personal air pollution exposure and risk for acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Urban air pollution is involved in the progress of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Its potential role on the devastating event of Acute Exacerbation of IPF (AE-IPF) needs to be clarified. This study examined the association between long-term personal air pollution exposure and AE- IPF risk taking into consideration inflammatory mediators and telomere length (TL). METHODS: All consecutive IPF-patients referred to our Hospital from October 2013-June 2019 were included. AE-IPF events were recorded and inflammatory mediators and TL measured. Long-term personal air pollution exposures were assigned to each patient retrospectively, for O3, NO2, PM2.5 [and PM10, based on geo-coded residential addresses. Logistic regression models assessed the association of air pollutants' levels with AE-IPF and inflammatory mediators adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: 118 IPF patients (mean age 72 ± 8.3 years) were analyzed. We detected positive significant associations between AE-IPF and a 10 µg/m3 increase in previous-year mean level of NO2 (OR = 1.52, 95%CI:1.15-2.0, p = 0.003), PM2.5 (OR = 2.21, 95%CI:1.16-4.20, p = 0.016) and PM10 (OR = 2.18, 95%CI:1.15-4.15, p = 0.017) independent of age, gender, smoking, lung function and antifibrotic treatment. Introduction of TL in all models of a subgroup of 36 patients did not change the direction of the observed associations. Finally, O3 was positively associated with %change of IL-4 (p = 0.014) whilst PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 were inversely associated with %changes of IL-4 (p = 0.003, p = 0.003, p = 0.032) and osteopontin (p = 0.013, p = 0.013, p = 0.085) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term personal exposure to increased concentrations of air pollutants is an independent risk factor of AE-IPF. Inflammatory mediators implicated in lung repair mechanisms are involved.

Could adolescents be the vehicle that transfers a no-smoking rule from school to home?

INTRODUCTION: Banning smoking at home, schools, children's playgrounds and indoor environments, constitutes an integral part of tobacco control efforts to prevent uptake of smoking among young teenagers. We aimed at exploring the role of teenagers as facilitators of change in enforcing a home no-smoking rule following school-based anti-tobacco programs and examining the effect of home no-smoking rule on teenagers' intention to smoke. METHODS: A school-based intervention-control study was implemented during the 2016-2017 academic year among middle-school students in Athens, Greece. The experiential learning intervention was delivered using an interdisciplinary approach, bridging excerpts from ancient classical Greek myths and ancient classical literature, with their decoded archetypal symbols applied in a smoking and tobacco control paradigm. An anonymous selfadministered questionnaire was used at baseline, and at follow-up at 3 months to evaluate program effectiveness. A chi-squared test was used for categorical variables and a t-test for continuous variables. Cohen's distance (d) was employed to examine the intervention effect size. A two-tailed p≤0.05 was considered statistically significant using IBM SPSS V.22. RESULTS: In all, 351 students participated. At baseline, 47.5% in the intervention group reported a home no-smoking rule and 86% indicated being unlikely to smoke, these increased to 61.3% (p=0.016) and 98.2% (p<0.001) at followup, respectively. Cohen's d value was calculated to estimate the effect size of intervention. A large effect size of intervention was found in the intervention group (d=1.24), whilst d=0.19 in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that our intervention led to the increase of no-smoking rules at home and to a negative intention towards smoking of adolescents. Consequently, we provide evidence that students are effective vehicles for carrying anti-smoking messages to their home environment including the no-smoking rule. Additionally, we confirmed previous reports that home no-smoking rule is associated with a negative intention to smoke and risk of smoking.

Evaluation of a school-based, experiential-learning smoking prevention program in promoting attitude change in adolescents.

INTRODUCTION: School-based tobacco control programs exhibit great variety. Our study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of an experiential learning smoking prevention program in facilitating knowledge acquisition, forging healthy attitudes, and decreasing intention to smoke. METHODS: A school-based intervention-control study was implemented during the 2016-2017 academic year among middle-school students in Athens, Greece. The experiential learning intervention was delivered using an interdisciplinary approach, bridging excerpts from ancient classical Greek myths, Aesop fables and ancient classical literature (Aristotle, Herodotus, Plutarch, Xenophon, Homer's Epics), with their decoded archetypal symbols applied in a smoking and tobacco control paradigm. An anonymous self-administered questionnaire was used at baseline and at follow-up at 3 months to evaluate program effectiveness. RESULTS: A total of 351 students participated in our study; 181 (51.6%) in the intervention group and 170 (48.4%) in the control group. The mean age of student participants was 13 years (SD=0.96). Students in the intervention group were more likely to improve their knowledge of the adverse effects of smoking, develop attitudes against smoking and report a negative intention to smoke in the first year following the intervention, compared to the control group. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that school-based experiential learning smoking prevention programs improve smoking-related knowledge, enhance anti-smoking attitudes and reinforce negative intentions toward tobacco products.

Lifetime alcohol intake, drinking patterns over time and risk of stomach cancer: A pooled analysis of data from two prospective cohort studies.

Alcohol consumption is causally linked to several cancers but the evidence for stomach cancer is inconclusive. In our study, the association between long-term alcohol intake and risk of stomach cancer and its subtypes was evaluated. We performed a pooled analysis of data collected at baseline from 491 714 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition and the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for incident stomach cancer in relation to lifetime alcohol intake and group-based life course intake trajectories, adjusted for potential confounders including Helicobacter pylori infection. In all, 1225 incident stomach cancers (78% noncardia) were diagnosed over 7 094 637 person-years; 984 in 382 957 study participants with lifetime alcohol intake data (5 455 507 person-years). Although lifetime alcohol intake was not associated with overall stomach cancer risk, we observed a weak positive association with noncardia cancer (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.06 per 10 g/d increment), with a HR of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.08-2.09) for ≥60 g/d compared to 0.1 to 4.9 g/d. A weak inverse association with cardia cancer (HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-1.00) was also observed. HRs of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.10-1.99) for noncardia and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.26-1.03) for cardia cancer were observed for a life course trajectory characterized by heavy decreasing intake compared to light stable intake (Phomogeneity = .02). These associations did not differ appreciably by smoking or H pylori infection status. Limiting alcohol use during lifetime, particularly avoiding heavy use during early adulthood, might help prevent noncardia stomach cancer. Heterogeneous associations observed for cardia and noncardia cancers may indicate etiologic differences.

Development and validation of a lifestyle-based model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score.

BACKGROUND: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. METHODS: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992-2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. RESULTS: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell's C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264-0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084-0.575)). CONCLUSIONS: LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level.

Metabolic perturbations prior to hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis: Findings from a prospective observational cohort study.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development entails changes in liver metabolism. Current knowledge on metabolic perturbations in HCC is derived mostly from case-control designs, with sparse information from prospective cohorts. Our objective was to apply comprehensive metabolite profiling to detect metabolites whose serum concentrations are associated with HCC development, using biological samples from within the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (>520 000 participants), where we identified 129 HCC cases matched 1:1 to controls. We conducted high-resolution untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based metabolomics on serum samples collected at recruitment prior to cancer diagnosis. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was applied controlling for dietary habits, alcohol consumption, smoking, body size, hepatitis infection and liver dysfunction. Corrections for multiple comparisons were applied. Of 9206 molecular features detected, 220 discriminated HCC cases from controls. Detailed feature annotation revealed 92 metabolites associated with HCC risk, of which 14 were unambiguously identified using pure reference standards. Positive HCC-risk associations were observed for N1-acetylspermidine, isatin, p-hydroxyphenyllactic acid, tyrosine, sphingosine, l,l-cyclo(leucylprolyl), glycochenodeoxycholic acid, glycocholic acid and 7-methylguanine. Inverse risk associations were observed for retinol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, glycerophosphocholine, γ-carboxyethyl hydroxychroman and creatine. Discernible differences for these metabolites were observed between cases and controls up to 10 years prior to diagnosis. Our observations highlight the diversity of metabolic perturbations involved in HCC development and replicate previous observations (metabolism of bile acids, amino acids and phospholipids) made in Asian and Scandinavian populations. These findings emphasize the role of metabolic pathways associated with steroid metabolism and immunity and specific dietary and environmental exposures in HCC development.

Plant foods, dietary fibre and risk of ischaemic heart disease in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence indicates that diets rich in plant foods are associated with a lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but there is sparse information on fruit and vegetable subtypes and sources of dietary fibre. This study examined the associations of major plant foods, their subtypes and dietary fibre with risk of IHD in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS: We conducted a prospective analysis of 490 311 men and women without a history of myocardial infarction or stroke at recruitment (12.6 years of follow-up, n cases = 8504), in 10 European countries. Dietary intake was assessed using validated questionnaires, calibrated with 24-h recalls. Multivariable Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of IHD. RESULTS: There was a lower risk of IHD with a higher intake of fruit and vegetables combined [HR per 200 g/day higher intake 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-0.99, P-trend = 0.009], and with total fruits (per 100 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.021). There was no evidence for a reduced risk for fruit subtypes, except for bananas. Risk was lower with higher intakes of nuts and seeds (per 10 g/day 0.90, 0.82-0.98, P-trend = 0.020), total fibre (per 10 g/day 0.91, 0.85-0.98, P-trend = 0.015), fruit and vegetable fibre (per 4 g/day 0.95, 0.91-0.99, P-trend = 0.022) and fruit fibre (per 2 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.045). No associations were observed between vegetables, vegetables subtypes, legumes, cereals and IHD risk. CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective study, we found some small inverse associations between plant foods and IHD risk, with fruit and vegetables combined being the most strongly inversely associated with risk. Whether these small associations are causal remains unclear.