Revisiting recent trends in stroke death rates, United States, 1999-2020.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have reported a reversal or stalling of stroke mortality trends in the United States, but the literature has not been updated using recent data. A comprehensive examination of contemporary trends is crucial to informing public health intervention efforts, setting health priorities, and allocating limited health resources. This study assessed the temporal trends in stroke death rates in the United States from 1999 through 2020. METHODS: We used national mortality data from the Underlying Cause of Death files in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER). Stroke decedents were identified using the International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision- I60-I69. Crude/age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were abstracted overall and by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and US census region. Joinpoint analysis and five-year simple moving averages assessed mortality trends from 1999 through 2020. Results were expressed as annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Stroke mortality trends declined from 1999 to 2012 but increased by 0.5% annually from 2012 through 2020. Rates increased by 1.3% per year among Non-Hispanic Blacks from 2012 to 2020, 1.7% per year among Hispanics from 2012 to 2020, and stalled among Non-Hispanic Whites (2012-2020), Asians/Pacific Islanders (2014-2020), and American Indians/Alaska Natives (2013-2020). Recent rates have stalled among females from 2012 to 2020 and increased among males at an annual rate of 0.7% during the same period. Based on age, trends have stabilized among older adults since 2012 and grew at an annual rate of 7.1% among persons <35 years and 5.2% among persons 35 to 64 years since 2018. Declining trends were sustained in the Northeastern region only, with rates stalling in the Midwest and increasing in the South and West. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in US stroke mortality trends recorded during previous decades has not been sustained in recent years. While the reasons are unclear, findings might be attributed to changes in stroke risk factors in the US population. Further research should identify social, regional, and behavioral drivers to guide medical and public health intervention efforts.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dapagliflozin vs Empagliflozin for Treating Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction in the United States.

PURPOSE: Evidence suggests that adding dapagliflozin to the prior standard of care is cost-effective compared with the standard of care alone. The latest guideline by the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Heart Failure Society of America now recommends the use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, the relative cost-effectiveness of different SGLT2 inhibitors, including dapagliflozin and empagliflozin, has not been fully characterized. Therefore, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare dapagliflozin and empagliflozin in patients with HFrEF from the US health care perspective. METHODS: To compare the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin and empagliflozin in treating HFrEF, we used a state-transition Markov model. This model was used to estimate the expected lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for both medications. The model incorporated patients who were 65 years of age at entry and simulated their health outcomes over a lifetime horizon. The perspective of the analysis was based on the US health care system. To determine the health state transition probabilities, we used a network meta-analysis. All future costs and QALYs were discounted at an annual rate of 3%, and the costs were presented in 2022 US dollars. FINDINGS: The base case analysis found that the incremental expected lifetime cost of treating patients with dapagliflozin vs empagliflozin was $37,684, resulting in an ICER of $44,763 per QALY. A price threshold analysis indicated that for empagliflozin to be the most cost-effective SGLT2 inhibitor at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY, it may require a 12% discount on its current annual prices. IMPLICATIONS: The findings of this study indicate that dapagliflozin may offer greater lifetime economic value when compared with empagliflozin. Given that the current clinical practice guideline does not recommend one SGLT2 inhibitor over the other, it is essential to implement scalable strategies to ensure affordable access to both medications. By doing so, patients and health care practitioners can make informed decisions about their treatment options without being constrained by financial barriers.

HIV mortality trends among older adults in the United States, 1999-2020.

BACKGROUND: Despite the progress made in managing HIV, the mortality trends among older adults in the US remains understudied. The lack of evidence in this demographic hampers the ability to implement evidence-based interventions. Our aim is to analyze the trends in HIV-related mortality among US citizens aged 65 years and above by demographic characteristics such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, and census region. METHODS: We abstracted national mortality data from the underlying cause of death files in the CDC WONDER database. The ICD-10 Codes- B20-B24 were used to identify HIV deaths among US older adults from 1999 to 2020. Trends in age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) were assessed using a five-year simple moving average and Joinpoint analysis. Results were expressed as annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes, and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2020, a total of 15,694 older adults died from HIV in the US (AAMR= 1.7 per 100,000; 95% CI: 1.6 - 1.7). Overall mortality trends increased at an annual rate of 1.5% (95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) from 1999 through 2020. The trends increased among Non-Hispanic Whites, stabilized among Non-Hispanic Blacks, and decreased among Hispanics from 1999 to 2020. Further, the trends increased consistently across categories of age (65 to 74 years; 75 to 84 years), sex, and census region. CONCLUSIONS: HIV mortality among older adults in the US has risen overall from 1999 to 2020, but with varying trends by race and ethnicity. This highlights the need for enhanced public health surveillance to better understand the scope of HIV mortality among older adults and identify high-risk demographic and regional subgroups for targeted interventions. Improving timely diagnosis, managing comorbidities, and stigma surrounding HIV among older adults are crucial to reducing HIV mortality in this population.

Analysis of contemporary mortality trends in pulmonary embolism, United States, 1999-2020.

BACKGROUND: A contemporary and comprehensive examination of mortality trends in pulmonary embolism (PE) is needed for the United States (US), as previous studies were either based on preceding data or limited to specific demographic subgroups. We aimed to assess the trends in PE deaths by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and census region in the US from 1999 through 2020. METHODS: We analyzed national mortality data using the CDC WONDER database. PE deaths were identified using the ICD-10 Code- I-26. Age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were abstracted by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and census region. Temporal trends were assessed using five-year moving averages and Joinpoint regression models. Annual percentage changes (APC) in AAMR were estimated using Monte Carlo Permutation, and 95 % confidence intervals using the Parametric Method. RESULTS: Overall mortality trends have stabilized since 2009 (APC = 0.6; 95 % CI: -0.3, 1.6), as were trends among Non-Hispanic Whites (APC = 0.6; 95 % CI: -0.2, 1.4), Non-Hispanic Blacks (APC = 0.7; 95 % CI: -0.2, 1.6), and Hispanics (APC = 1.4; 95 % CI: -0.7, 3.6). AAMR declined by 1.7 % per year (95 % CI: -2.8, -0.7) among Asians/Pacific Islanders and by 1.4 % per year (95 % CI: -2.8, -0.0) among American Indians/Alaska Natives, from 1999 to 2020. Contemporary trends have increased among males (APC = 1.0; 95 % CI: 0.2, 1.9), persons below 65 years of age (APC = 18.6; 95 % CI: 18.6, 18.6; APC = 2.3; 95 % CI: 1.4, 3.1), and persons from the Northeastern (APC = 1.0; 95 % CI: 0.1, 2.0) and Western regions (APC = 1.6; 95 % CI: 0.7, 2.6). CONCLUSIONS: The decline in PE mortality recorded from 1999 through the mid-2000s has not been sustained in the last decade-overall trends have stabilized since 2009. However, there were differences by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and the US census region, with some subgroups demonstrating stationary, increasing, or declining trends. Further studies should examine the drivers of differential trends in the US population to inform evidence-based and culturally competent public health intervention efforts.