Prevalence of menthol cigarette use among adults who smoke from the United States by census division and demographic subgroup, 2002-2020: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) project.

BACKGROUND: Targeted marketing of menthol cigarettes in the US influences disparities in the prevalence of menthol smoking. There has been no analysis of sub-national data documenting differences in use across demographic subgroups. This study estimated trends in the prevalence of menthol use among adults who smoke in the nine US census divisions by sex, age, and race/ethnicity from 2002 to 2020. METHODS: Data from 12 waves of the US ITC Survey were used to estimate the prevalence of menthol cigarette use across census divisions and demographic subgroups using multilevel regression and post-stratification (n = 12,020). Multilevel logistic regression was used to predict the prevalence of menthol cigarette use in 72 cross-classified groups of adults who smoke defined by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status; division-level effects were fit with a random intercept. Predicted prevalence was weighted by the total number of adults who smoke in each cross-classified group and aggregated to divisions within demographic subgroup. Estimates were validated against the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). RESULTS: Overall modeled prevalence of menthol cigarette use was similar to TUS-CPS estimates. Prevalence among adults who smoke increased in each division from 2002 to 2020. By 2020, prevalence was highest in the Middle (46.3%) and South Atlantic (42.7%) and lowest in the Pacific (25.9%) and Mountain (24.2%) divisions. Prevalence was higher among adults aged 18-29 (vs. 50+) and females (vs. males). Prevalence among non-Hispanic Black people exceeded 80% in the Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, and South Atlantic in all years and varied most among Hispanic people in 2020 (Pacific: 26.5%, New England: 55.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Significant geographic variation in the prevalence of menthol cigarette use among adults who smoke suggests the proposed US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) menthol cigarette ban will exert differential public health benefits and challenges across geographic and demographic subgroups.

Divergence in Cigarette Discontinuation Rates by Use of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS): Longitudinal Findings From the United States PATH Study Waves 1-6.

INTRODUCTION: We compare real-world trends in population-level cigarette discontinuation rates among adults (ages ≥21) who smoked cigarettes, by electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use. AIMS AND METHODS: U.S nationally representative data from adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study (2013/14-2021, Waves 1-6) who smoked cigarettes in the past 30 days (P30D) were analyzed (n = 13 640). The exposure was P30D ENDS use. The outcome was P30D cigarette discontinuation at biennial follow-up. Weighted trend analyses were conducted to test for differences in cigarette discontinuation trends by ENDS use. RESULTS: Between 2013/14 and 2015/16, cigarette discontinuation rates were both 16% for those who used ENDS and for those who did not; between 2018/19 and 2021, rates were ~30% for those who used ENDS and ~20% for those who did not; the time by ENDS use interaction was significant. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between adults' ENDS use and cigarette discontinuation in the context of an expanded ENDS marketplace, new tobacco regulatory actions, and COVID-19 differs from the relationship in earlier years. IMPLICATIONS: It is important for public health decisions to be informed by research based on the contemporary ENDS marketplace and circumstances.

Youth Use of e-Cigarette Flavor and Device Combinations and Brands Before vs After FDA Enforcement.

Importance: The US Food and Drug Administration's Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) prioritized its enforcement efforts against nontobacco, nonmenthol (ie, sweet)-flavored cartridge e-cigarettes in February 2020. Within-person e-cigarette initiation, continuation, and switching behaviors among youth are unknown following CTP's prioritized enforcement efforts. Objective: To describe transitions in youths' e-cigarette flavor/device combination use, brand use, nicotine use, and frequency of use following CTP's e-cigarette enforcement prioritization. Design, Setting, and Participants: The US population-based, nationally representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health cohort study included data collected in 2019 and 2021 from youth aged 12 to 17 years. The data were analyzed from February to June 2023. Exposure: e-cigarette use (past 30 days), flavor/device combination used, brand used, nicotine use, and frequency of use. Main Outcomes and Measures: Transitions in e-cigarette use, flavor/device combination used, brand used, nicotine use, and frequency of use between 2019 and 2021 among 9088 youth aged 12 to 17 years in 2019; prevalence of e-cigarette use, flavor/device combination used, and brand used in 2019 (n = 8771) and 2021 (n = 5574) among youth aged 14 to 17 years in each year. Results: The 2019 sample included 8771 youth. The population of those aged 12 to 17 years was 49.0% female (95% CI, 48.7%-49.3%) and 51.0% male (95% CI, 50.8%-51.3%). Participants were 15.4% Black (95% CI, 15.0%-15.7%), 24.1% Hispanic (95% CI, 23.9%-24.4%), 75.9% non-Hispanic (95% CI, 75.6%-76.1%), 69.1% White (95% CI, 68.5%-69.8%), and 15.5% another race (95% CI, 14.9%-16.1%). Among youth ages 12 to 17 years who did not use e-cigarettes in 2019, 531 (6.5%) initiated use in 2021 (95% CI, 5.9%-7.1%); among them, 415 (76.8%) initiated with a combination other than a sweet cartridge (95% CI, 72.2%-80.8%). Among youth ages 12 to 17 who used e-cigarettes in 2019, 360 (47.8%) continued use in 2021 (95% CI, 44.0%-51.1%). Continuation rates were similar for those who used sweet-cartridge e-cigarettes (144 [51.5%]; 95% CI, 45.7%-57.3%) and those who used other combinations (204 [47.6%]; 95% CI, 42.8%-52.4%) in 2019. Among those who continued e-cigarette use in 2021, 121 (84.0%) of those who used sweet-cartridge e-cigarettes in 2019 switched to a different combination (95% CI, 77.0%-89.2%). Overall, among youth who used e-cigarettes in 2021, 177 (53%) used a sweet-disposable combination, 32 (11%) used a sweet-cartridge, and no individual brand was used by more than 10%. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this longitudinal cohort study of youth in the US suggest that most youth who initiated or continued e-cigarette use in 2021 used flavor/device combinations that were excluded from CTP's enforcement priorities. Restrictions and enforcement efforts that only cover a subset of products may be ineffective at preventing youth flavored e-cigarette use.

Use of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems or Cigarette Smoking After US Food and Drug Administration-Prioritized Enforcement Against Fruit-Flavored Cartridges.

Importance: The Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) of the US Food and Drug Administration prioritized its enforcement efforts against non-tobacco-, non-menthol- (fruit-) flavored cartridge electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) in February 2020. Objective: To evaluate adults' use of ENDS and cigarette smoking following the CTP's prioritized enforcement efforts against fruit-flavored cartridge ENDS. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this population-based, nationally representative US cohort study, data were collected from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study from December 2018 to November 2019 (hereafter referred to as 2019) and/or from September 2020 to December 2020 (Adult Telephone Survey, hereafter referred to as 2020). Adults (aged ≥21 years) who used ENDS in the past 30 days and smoked cigarettes in the past 30 days or quit smoking cigarettes in the past year (n = 3173) were evaluated. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2022, to May 2, 2023. Exposure: ENDS flavor-device combinations used. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcome measures were cross-sectional prevalence of ENDS flavor-device combinations used in 2019 (n = 2654) and 2020 (n = 519) and longitudinal transitions in cigarette smoking (cessation [no smoking in the past 30 days in 2020 among those who smoked in 2019; n = 876] and relapse [smoking in the past 30 days in 2020 among those who recently quit in 2019; n = 137]) as a function of ENDS flavor-device combination used in 2019. Results: The sample in 2019 included 2654 individuals (55% male [95% CI, 53%-58%]). Among those who used ENDS and smoked cigarettes, fruit-flavored cartridge ENDS use decreased from 13.9% (95% CI, 12.1%-15.9%) in 2019 to 7.9% (95% CI, 5.1%-12.1%) in 2020 (P = .01), whereas fruit-flavored disposable ENDS use increased from 4.0% (95% CI, 3.1%-5.1%) in 2019 to 14.5% (95% CI, 11.6%-18.0%) in 2020 (P < .001). Patterns were similar among those who recently quit smoking. Neither cigarette cessation nor relapse rates differed between those who used ENDS that were vs were not prioritized for enforcement efforts (cessation: 23.4% [95% CI, 18.1%-29.7%] vs 26.4% [95% CI, 22.4%-30.8%]; adjusted odds ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.57-2.21; relapse: 32.7% [95% CI, 17.1%-53.4%] vs 29.8% [95% CI, 20.3%-41.3%]; adjusted odds ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.24-3.84). Conclusions and Relevance: In this nationally representative US cohort study of adults who smoked cigarettes and used ENDS, fruit-flavored cartridge ENDS use was nearly halved between 2019 and 2020. Cigarette cessation and relapse rates did not differ between those who used ENDS targeted by CTP and those who used other ENDS.

National longitudinal tobacco product discontinuation rates among US youth from the PATH Study: 2013-2019 (waves 1-5).

OBJECTIVE: Determine longitudinal tobacco product discontinuation rates among youth (ages 12-17 years) in the USA between 2013 and 2019. METHODS: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study, was used to determine annual/biennial rates of tobacco product discontinuation behaviours among youth across 2013-2019: (1) discontinuing product use (transition from past 30-day use to no past 30-day use), (2) attempting to quit product use and (3) discontinuing product use among those who attempted to quit. Discontinuing use was evaluated separately for cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah, smokeless tobacco and any tobacco. Attempting to quit and discontinuing use among those who attempted were each evaluated for cigarettes and ENDS. Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate linear and non-linear trends in rates across the study period. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2019, biennial rates of discontinuing tobacco product use among youth increased for cigarettes from 29% to 40%, increased for smokeless tobacco from 39% to 60%, and decreased for ENDS from 53% to 27%. By 2018/2019, rates of discontinuing use among attempters were 30% for those who used ENDS and 30% for those who smoked cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: Findings show decreasing rates of discontinuing ENDS use among youth in the USA alongside the changing ENDS marketplace and increasing rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco use. Findings will serve as benchmarks against which future tobacco product discontinuation rates can be compared with evaluating impacts of subsequent tobacco regulatory policies, ENDS product development and public education campaigns.

Associations between nicotine vaping uptake and cigarette smoking cessation vary by smokers' plans to quit: longitudinal findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most population studies that evaluate the relationship between nicotine vaping and cigarette cessation focus on limited segments of the smoker population. We evaluated vaping uptake and smoking cessation considering differences in smokers' plans to quit. DESIGN: Longitudinal International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys were conducted in 2016, 2018 and 2020. SETTING: This study was conducted in the United States, Canada, England and Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Participants of this study were adult daily cigarette smokers who had not vaped in the past 6 months at baseline and had participated in two or more consecutive waves of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys (n = 2815). MEASUREMENTS: Plans to quit cigarette smoking was assessed at baseline (within 6 months, beyond 6 months, not planning to quit) and at follow-up (within 6 months vs not within 6 months), cigarette smoking cessation was assessed at follow-up (smoking less than monthly [including complete cessation] vs daily/weekly/monthly smoking) and inter-wave vaping uptake was assesed between baseline and follow-up (none, only non-daily vaping and any daily vaping). Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate whether inter-wave vaping uptake was associated with smoking cessation at follow-up and with planning to quit at follow-up, each stratified by plans to quit smoking at baseline. FINDINGS: Overall, 12.7% of smokers quit smoking. Smokers not initially planning to quit within 6 months experienced higher odds of smoking cessation when they took up daily vaping (32.4%) versus no vaping (6.8%; adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 8.58; 95% CI, 5.06-14.54). Among smokers planning to quit, smoking cessation rates were similar between those who did and did not take up daily vaping (25.1% vs 16.8%; AOR, 1.91; 95% CI, 0.91-4.00), although we could not account for potential use of cessation aids. Daily vaping uptake was associated with planning to quit smoking at follow-up among those initially not planning to quit (AOR,6.32; 95% CI, 4.17-9.59). CONCLUSIONS: Uptake of nicotine vaping appears to be strongly associated with cigarette smoking cessation among smokers with no initial plans to quit smoking. Excluding smokers not planning to quit from studies on vaping and smoking cessation may underestimate potential benefit of daily vaping for daily smokers.

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) flavours and devices used by adults before and after the 2020 US FDA ENDS enforcement priority: findings from the 2018 and 2020 US ITC Smoking and Vaping Surveys.

BACKGROUND: In February 2020, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) prioritised enforcement efforts against flavoured prefilled cartridge/pod electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), with the exception of tobacco and menthol. This study examined changes between prepriority enforcement (2018) and early postenforcement (February-June 2020) among adults on: ENDS flavours and devices used most often; location of last purchase of fruit/other-flavoured cartridges (covered under the enforcement priority); and smoking and vaping. METHODS: Prevalence estimates came from 1608 adult frequent (≥weekly) ENDS users (current smokers (n=1072), ex-smokers (n=536)) who participated in the 2018 and/or 2020 US ITC Smoking and Vaping Surveys. Transitions between flavours/devices and changes in smoking/vaping were assessed among baseline respondents who were followed up in 2020 (n=360). Respondents self-reported the ENDS device (disposable, cartridge/pod or tank) and the flavor that they used most often: (1) tobacco flavors (tobacco/tobacco-menthol mix) or unflavored; (2) menthol/mint; (3) fruit/other flavors. RESULTS: Compared to 2018, in the first 5 months of the 2020 enforcement priority, there were significant increases in the prevalence of fruit/other-flavoured cartridges (7.9% to 12.4%,p=0.026) and menthol/mint cartridges (7.1% to 13.0%, p<0.01) and decreases in tobacco-flavoured tanks (15.5% to 10.0%,p=0.002) and fruit/other-flavoured tanks (38.7% to 33.6%,p=0.038). Fewer than 10% of adults used disposables in 2018 and 2020. Among the cohort sample, the most pronounced transitions between flavours/devices occurred among those who used flavoured cartridges covered under the enforcement priority (54.6% switched to a flavour and/or device excluded from enforcement). There was an increase in purchasing fruit/other-flavoured cartridges online and a decrease in retail locations except for vape shops. Overall, there were few changes in smoking and vaping behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2018 and the early phase of the FDA's 2020 enforcement priority, prevalence of menthol/mint and fruit/other-flavoured cartridges increased among adults. Half of vapers using cartridge flavours covered in the enforcement switched to other flavours and/or devices that were exempt, with the exception of disposables. The extent to which more comprehensive restrictions may be problematic for adults who prefer a range of ENDS flavours remains uncertain.

E-cigarette and tobacco product use among NYS youth before and after a state-wide vaping flavour restriction policy, 2020-2021.

SIGNIFICANCE: Reducing youth e-cigarette use is a New York State (NYS) public health priority. In May 2020, a state-wide restriction on flavoured e-cigarettes, except tobacco flavour, was passed. This study examines changes in nicotine product use behaviour among youth around the time of the state-wide vaping flavour restriction. METHODS: NYS data from the US International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Youth Tobacco and E-cigarette Tobacco and Vaping Survey were analysed cross-sectionally from February 2020 (n=955), August 2020 (n=946), February 2021 (n=1030) and August 2021 (n=753). Online surveys were conducted among youth 16-19 years. Weighted descriptive statistics and regression models were used to describe changes in nicotine product use behaviour. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity and perceived family socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Significant decreases in past 30-day e-cigarette use (20%-11%), cigarette (7%-4%), and dual use of e-cigarettes and cigarettes (5%-2%) were observed over the 2-year period in NYS. Over 95% of vapers still reported using a non-tobacco-flavoured e-cigarette following the restriction, with fruit-flavoured being the most popular at each time point. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly all NYS youth continued to vape flavours that were restricted in NYS. While youth past 30-day vaping prevalence decreased significantly from 2020 to 2021, increased flavour restriction compliance could result in an even greater decrease. Continuous monitoring is important to better understand perceptions, use patterns and access at the individual level, retail level and population level to inform future enforcement and restrictions.

National longitudinal tobacco product cessation rates among US adults from the PATH Study: 2013-2019 (waves 1-5).

OBJECTIVE: To report on longitudinal tobacco product cessation rates, by product type, among adults (ages 18+ years) in the USA between 2013 and 2019. METHODS: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study was used to report on annual and biennial rates of the following three cessation behaviours across 2013-2019: (1) discontinuing tobacco product use (ie, transition from past 30-day use to no past 30-day use), (2) attempting to quit tobacco product use and (3) quitting tobacco product use among those who attempted to quit. Each cessation behaviour was evaluated separately for cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco. Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate linear and nonlinear trends in cessation rates across the study period. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2019, rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking among adults in the USA statistically increased from 16% to 18%, though these were consistently lower than rates of discontinuing use of other tobacco products. Similarly, quit attempt rates and rates of quitting among attempters increased for cigarette smokers. However, rates of discontinuing ENDS use sharply declined across the study period, from 62% to 44%. CONCLUSIONS: Findings show that tobacco product cessation rates have been changing in recent years in the USA alongside the changing tobacco product marketplace and regulatory environment, though rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking remain relatively low. Findings can serve as a benchmark against which future cessation rates can be compared with evaluate the impacts of future tobacco regulatory policies.

Electronic Nicotine Delivery System (ENDS) Device Types and Flavors Used by Youth in the PATH Study, 2016-2019.

The evolving electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) marketplace and recent regulatory actions may influence youth ENDS device preferences. Using data from Waves (W) 4, 4.5, and 5 (2016-2019) of the nationally representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, this study estimated the prevalence of open and closed system primary ENDS use by youth (12-17 years) current (past 30-day) ENDS users, and compared demographics, tobacco use characteristics, and patterns of ENDS use, including flavors, by device type. Among current ENDS users, closed system use was significantly higher than open system use in W4.5 (68.3% vs. 31.7%) and W5 (60.5% vs. 39.5%). In W5, closed system users were more likely to have a regular ENDS brand, believe their ENDS had nicotine, and use tobacco and mint or menthol flavors in the past 30 days compared to open system users. In W5, users of closed systems were less likely to use fruit, non-alcoholic drink, and candy, desserts, or other sweets flavors in the past 30 days than users of open systems. Youth were more likely to use closed over open system ENDS in 2017-2019. Differences were observed between device types, particularly with flavor use, reflecting recent changes in flavored product availability.

Differences in cigarette smoking quit attempts and cessation between adults who did and did not take up nicotine vaping: Findings from the ITC four country smoking and vaping surveys.

INTRODUCTION: There is mixed evidence as to whether nicotine vaping products (NVPs) can help adults who smoke transition away from cigarettes. This study investigated if self-reported attempts to quit smoking and smoking cessation, over a period of either 18 or 24 months, differed between respondents who initiated nicotine vaping versus those who did not. Outcome comparisons were made between those who: (1) initiated vaping vs. those who did not; (2) initiated daily or non-daily vaping vs. those who did not; and (3) initiated daily or non-daily vaping between surveys and continued to vape at follow-up (daily or non-daily) vs. those who did not initiate vaping. METHODS: This cohort study included 3516 respondents from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys (Australia, Canada, England, United Sates), recruited at Wave 1 (2016) or 2 (2018) and followed up at Wave 2 (18 months) and/or 3 (2020, 24 months). Adults who smoked daily at baseline and did not have a history of regular vaping were included. Initiation of vaping was defined as beginning to vape at least monthly between surveys. Respondents indicated whether they made an attempt to quit smoking between surveys. Smoking cessation was defined as those who self-reported no longer smoking cigarettes at follow-up. RESULTS: Relative to those who did not initiate vaping, initiation of any daily vaping between surveys was associated with a greater likelihood of smokers making a cigarette quit attempt (p < 0.001) and quitting smoking (p < 0.001). Among smokers who attempted to quit smoking, initiation of daily vaping was associated with a greater likelihood of being abstinent from smoking at follow-up (p = 0.001). Respondents who initiated vaping between surveys and were vaping daily at follow up were significantly more likely to have attempted to quit smoking (p < 0.001) and to have quit smoking (p < 0.001) than those who did not initiate vaping. Respondents who initiated non-daily vaping did not differ significantly from those who did not initiate vaping on any of the outcome measures. CONCLUSIONS: Daily NVP use was associated with increased attempts to quit smoking and abstinence from smoking cigarettes. These findings are consistent with the concept that complete cigarette substitution may be more likely to be achieved when smokers vape nicotine daily.

Was COVID-19 associated with increased cigarette purchasing, consumption, and smoking at home among US smokers in early 2020? Findings from the US arm of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey.

Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 and mandatory stay-at-home orders on cigarette smoking is mixed. In the United States, household tobacco purchases increased in early 2020, but it is unclear whether this was associated with increased smoking. Using individual-level, longitudinal data from a representative cohort of US smokers (n = 3046), this study tested whether (1) carton purchases of cigarettes increased in early 2020 relative to the same calendar period in 2018, (2) more smokers permitted smoking inside their homes, and (3) smokers increased the number of cigarettes they smoked per day. Weighted multivariable logistic regression tested whether trends in carton purchasing and smoke-free homes differed in 2020 compared to 2018 while weighted multivariable linear regression tested whether trends in cigarette consumption differed in 2020 compared to 2018. Overall, 24.0% of US smokers last purchased cigarettes by the carton in early 2018; this increased to 28.8% in early 2020 (p = 0.007). Average daily cigarette consumption and the percentage of smokers reporting that smoking was not allowed inside their homes did not differ between 2018 and 2020 (p = 0.92 and p = 0.054, respectively). Overall, these findings suggest that COVID-19 mitigation measures implemented in the spring of 2020 had limited impact on the smoking behavior of US adult smokers.

Responses to potential nicotine vaping product flavor restrictions among regular vapers using non-tobacco flavors: Findings from the 2020 ITC Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, England and the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Some jurisdictions have implemented nicotine vaping product (NVP) flavor restrictions because of concerns about rising adolescent use. However, little is known how these restrictions may impact adult vapers. This study describes the level of support and predictive behavioral responses to a hypothetical NVP ban on non-tobacco flavors among regular adult vapers who only use flavors that would be banned. METHODS: Data came from 851 regular vapers (all current or ex-smokers) participating in the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, England, and the United States (US). A random sample of respondents in each country received and completed the questions about flavor bans: (1) do you support or oppose a ban on all non-tobacco flavors; and (2) what would you do if all flavors were banned, with the exception of tobacco in the US, and tobacco and menthol in Canada and England. Those who used tobacco-flavored or unflavored NVPs were excluded from all analyses, and additionally, vapers of menthol flavor in Canada and England were excluded from Aim 2. RESULTS: Overall, 53.6% of vapers were strongly opposed to flavor bans, 28.2% were opposed, 9.3% were in support, 3.6% were in strong support, and 5.2% did not know. Predicted behavioral responses were: 28.8% would continue vaping an available flavor, 28.3% would find a way to get their banned flavor(s), 17.1% would stop vaping and smoke instead, 12.9% said that they would stop vaping and not smoke, and 12.9% do not know what they would do. Responses to a potential flavor ban largely varied by smoking and vaping status, and by the level of support of a flavor restriction policy. CONCLUSIONS: At this time, it is not clear what net population-level consequences would occur if non-tobacco flavored NVPs were prohibited. While a majority of vapers in this study opposed this policy, and many vapers would not be willing to switch to available flavors, there was considerable variability in predicted behavioral responses.

E-cigarette use and change in plans to quit cigarette smoking among adult smokers in the United States: Longitudinal findings from the PATH Study 2014-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Much of the population-based e-cigarette use and cigarette cessation literature is restricted to smokers who have expressed intention to quit smoking, though experimental studies suggest e-cigarette use might motivate some smokers to change their quit intentions. We used U.S. nationally representative data to evaluate whether e-cigarette use by smokers initially not planning to ever quit is associated with change in plans to quit. METHODS: Longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data collected between 2014 and 2019 were analyzed. Main analyses were conducted among adult daily cigarette smokers not currently using e-cigarettes with no plans to ever quit smoking (n = 2366 observations from n = 1532 individuals). Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between change in e-cigarette use and change in plans to quit smoking within the next six months, over three assessment pairs. RESULTS: Daily cigarette smokers with no plans to quit had a higher rate of change to plan to quit if at follow-up they used e-cigarettes daily (41.4%, 95% CI: 27.1-57.3%) versus not at all (12.4%, 95% CI: 10.6-14.5%; aOR = 5.7, 95% CI: 2.9-11.2). Rate of change to plan to quit did not statistically differ between those who at follow-up used e-cigarettes some days versus not at all. CONCLUSIONS: Among adult daily cigarette smokers initially not planning to ever quit, subsequent daily e-cigarette use is associated with subsequent plans to quit smoking. Population-level research on e-cigarette use that is focused on smokers already motivated to quit may limit a complete evaluation of the smoker population.

Association of e-Cigarette Use With Discontinuation of Cigarette Smoking Among Adult Smokers Who Were Initially Never Planning to Quit.

Importance: Cigarette smokers not planning to quit are often overlooked in population studies evaluating the risk-benefit potential of electronic nicotine delivery products (e-cigarettes). Objective: To evaluate whether e-cigarette use is associated with discontinuing cigarette smoking among smokers who were initially never planning to quit. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used US nationally representative data from the longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (waves 2-5 conducted between October 2014 and November 2019), with participants evaluated in 3 pairs of interviews. Adult daily cigarette smokers initially not using e-cigarettes and with no plans to ever quit smoking for good (2489 observations from 1600 individuals) were included. Exposures: e-Cigarette use (ie, daily use, nondaily use, or no use) at follow-up interview among smokers not using e-cigarettes at baseline interview. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were discontinuation of cigarette smoking (ie, no cigarette smoking) and discontinuation of daily cigarette smoking (ie, no daily cigarette smoking) at follow-up interview. Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between the exposure and each outcome, controlling for demographic characteristics and cigarettes smoked per day at baseline interview; all estimates were weighted. Results: The weighted population of adult daily cigarette smokers who were not using e-cigarettes and had no plans to ever quit smoking, based on data from 1600 participants, was 56.1% male (95% CI, 53.4%-58.7%), 10.1% Hispanic (95% CI, 8.2%-12.3%), 10.1% non-Hispanic Black (95% CI, 8.7%-11.7%), 75.6% non-Hispanic White (95% CI, 72.9%-78.2%), and 4.2% of other non-Hispanic race (95% CI, 3.3%-5.4%); 29.3% were aged 55 to 69 years (95% CI, 26.2%-32.6%), 8.9% were aged 70 years or older (95% CI, 6.8%-11.5%), 36.8% did not graduate from high school (95% CI, 34.1%-39.6%), 55.2% had an annual household income of less than $25 000 (95% CI, 52.3%-58.1%), 37.6% smoked 20 to 29 cigarettes per day (95% CI, 34.7%-40.6%), and 12.7% smoked 30 or more cigarettes per day (95% CI, 10.9%-14.7%). Overall, 6.2% of the population (95% CI, 5.0%-7.5%) discontinued cigarette smoking. Discontinuation rates were higher among those who used e-cigarettes daily (28.0%; 95% CI, 15.2%-45.9%) compared with not at all (5.8%; 95% CI, 4.7%-7.2%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 8.11; 95% CI, 3.14-20.97). Furthermore, 10.7% (95% CI, 9.1%-12.5%) discontinued daily cigarette smoking, with higher rates of discontinuation observed among those who used e-cigarettes daily (45.5%; 95% CI, 27.4%-64.9%) compared with not at all (9.9%; 95% CI, 8.2%-11.8%; aOR, 9.67; 95% CI, 4.02-23.25). Nondaily e-cigarette use was not associated with cigarette discontinuation (aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.08-3.35) or daily cigarette discontinuation (aOR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.44-2.09). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, daily e-cigarette use was associated with greater odds of cigarette discontinuation among smokers who initially had no plans to ever quit smoking. These findings support the consideration of smokers who are not planning to quit when evaluating the risk-benefit potential of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation in the population.

E-Cigarette Flavors and Frequency of E-Cigarette Use among Adult Dual Users Who Attempt to Quit Cigarette Smoking in the United States: Longitudinal Findings from the PATH Study 2015/16-2016/17.

Potential mechanisms by which e-cigarette use may relate to combustible cigarette smoking cessation are not well-understood. We used U.S. nationally representative data to prospectively evaluate the relationship between e-cigarette flavor use and frequency of e-cigarette use among adult cigarette/e-cigarette dual users who attempted to quit smoking cigarettes. Analyses used Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data from adult dual users (2015/16) who attempted to quit smoking between 2015/16 and 2016/17 (Wave 3-Wave 4, n = 685, including those who did/did not quit by 2016/17). E-cigarette flavor use (usual/last flavor, past 30-day flavor; assessed in 2015/16) was categorized into Only tobacco; Only menthol/mint; Only non-tobacco, non-menthol/mint; and Any combination of tobacco, menthol/mint, other flavor(s). The key outcome, evaluated at follow-up in 2016/17, was frequent e-cigarette use, which was defined as use on 20+ of past 30 days. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between e-cigarette flavor use in 2015/16 and frequent e-cigarette use at follow-up in 2016/17. Dual users who attempted to quit smoking had greater odds of frequent e-cigarette use at follow-up when they used only non-tobacco, non-menthol/mint flavor than when they used only tobacco flavor as their regular/last e-cigarette flavor (OR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1-3.4); findings were no longer significant when adjusted for factors including e-cigarette device type (AOR = 1.4, 95% CI: 0.7-2.8). Past 30-day e-cigarette flavor use results were generally similar, although frequent e-cigarette use at follow-up was highest among those who used any combination of tobacco, menthol/mint, or other flavors. Findings indicate that e-cigarette flavor use among dual users who attempt to quit smoking may be related to e-cigarette use frequency overall, which may indicate a mechanism underlying findings for e-cigarette use and smoking cessation. Further longitudinal research may help to disentangle how e-cigarette characteristics uniquely impact e-cigarette use frequency and smoking cessation/sustained use.

Changes in Smoking and Vaping over 18 Months among Smokers and Recent Ex-Smokers: Longitudinal Findings from the 2016 and 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys.

This descriptive study of smokers (smoked at least monthly) and recent ex-smokers (quit for ≤2 years) examined transitions over an 18 month period in their smoking and vaping behaviors. Data are from Waves 1 (W1: 2016) and 2 (W2: 2018) of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey, a cohort study of adult (≥18+) smokers, concurrent users (smoke and vape), and recent ex-smokers from Australia, Canada, England, and the United States (US). Respondents (N = 5016) were classified according to their smoking and vaping status, which resulted in eight subgroups: (1) exclusive daily smokers (2) exclusive non-daily smokers; (3-6) concurrent users (subdivided into four groups by each combination of daily/non-daily smoking and daily/non-daily vaping); (7) ex-smokers who vape; (8) ex-smokers not vaping. The analyses focused first on describing changes between groups from W1 to W2. Second, transition outcomes were assessed based on changes in smoking and vaping between W1 and W2. Transitions focused on smoking were: no change in smoking (continued smoking at the same frequency); decreased smoking; increased smoking; discontinued smoking; relapsed (ex-smokers at W1 who were smoking at W2). Transitions focused on vaping were: initiated vaping; switched from smoking to vaping. Overall, this study found that the vast majority of smokers were smoking 18 months later. Non-daily smokers were more likely than daily smokers to have discontinued smoking (p < 0.0001) and to have switched to exclusive vaping (p = 0.034). Exclusive non-daily smokers were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have initiated vaping (p = 0.04). Among all W1 daily smokers, there were no differences in discontinued smoking between daily smokers who vaped (concurrent users) and exclusive daily smokers; however, concurrent users were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have decreased to non-daily smoking (p < 0.001) or to have switched to vaping by W2 (p < 0.001). Among all W1 non-daily smokers, there were no significant differences in increased smoking or discontinued smoking between concurrent users or exclusive smokers. Most ex-smokers remained abstinent from smoking, and there was no difference in relapse back to smoking between those who vaped and those who did not.

Role of e-cigarettes and pharmacotherapy during attempts to quit cigarette smoking: The PATH Study 2013-16.

BACKGROUND: More smokers report using e-cigarettes to help them quit than FDA-approved pharmacotherapy. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of e-cigarettes with future abstinence from cigarette and tobacco use. DESIGN: Cohort study of US sample, with annual follow-up. PARTICIPANTS: US adult (ages 18+) daily cigarette smokers identified at Wave 1 (W1; 2013-14) of the PATH Study, who reported a quit attempt before W2 and completed W3 (n = 2443). EXPOSURES: Use of e-cigarettes, pharmacotherapy (including nicotine replacement therapy), or no product for last quit attempt (LQA), and current daily e-cigarette use at W2. ANALYSIS: Propensity score matching (PSM) of groups using different methods to quit. OUTCOME MEASURES: 12+ months abstinence at W3 from cigarettes and from all tobacco (including e-cigarettes). 30+ days abstinence at W3 was a secondary outcome. RESULTS: Among daily smokers with an LQA, 23.5% used e-cigarettes, 19.3% used pharmacotherapy only (including NRT) and 57.2% used no product. Cigarette abstinence for 12+ months at W3 was ~10% in each group. Half of the cigarette abstainers in the e-cigarette group were using e-cigarettes at W3. Different methods to help quitting had statistically comparable 12+ month cigarette abstinence at W3 (e-cigarettes vs no product: Risk Difference (RD) = 0.01, 95% CI: -0.04 to 0.06; e-cigarettes vs pharmacotherapy: RD = 0.02, 95% CI:-0.04 to 0.09). Likewise, daily e-cigarette users at W2 did not show a cessation benefit over comparable no-e-cigarette users and this finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. Abstinence for 30+ days at W3 was also similar across products. LIMITATIONS: The frequency of e-cigarette use during the LQA was not assessed, nor was it possible to assess continuous abstinence from the LQA. CONCLUSION: Among US daily smokers who quit cigarettes in 2014-15, use of e-cigarettes in that attempt compared to approved cessation aids or no products showed similar abstinence rates 1-2 years later.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco cigarette use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016).

OBJECTIVE: Cigarettes are the most harmful and most prevalent tobacco product in the USA. This study examines cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of cigarette use among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older). DESIGN: Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US adults and youth. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, N=11 046; young adults, N=6478; adults 25+, N=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Among Wave 1 (W1) any past 30-day (P30D) cigarette users, more than 60%, persistently used cigarettes across three waves in all age groups. Exclusive cigarette use was more common among adult 25+ W1 P30D cigarette users (62.6%), while cigarette polytobacco use was more common among youth (57.1%) and young adults (65.2%). Persistent exclusive cigarette use was the most common pathway among adults 25+ and young adults; transitioning from exclusive cigarette use to cigarette polytobacco use was most common among youth W1 exclusive cigarette users. For W1 youth and young adult cigarette polytobacco users, the most common pattern of use was persistent cigarette polytobacco use. CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette use remains persistent across time, regardless of age, with most W1 P30D smokers continuing to smoke at all three waves. Policy efforts need to continue focusing on cigarettes, in addition to products such as electronic nicotine delivery systems that are becoming more prevalent.