Chronic pain and COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality: a UK Biobank cohort study.

ABSTRACT: The risk of COVID-19 in those with chronic pain is unknown. We investigated whether self-reported chronic pain was associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation or mortality. UK Biobank recruited 502,624 participants aged 37 to 73 years between 2006 and 2010. Baseline exposure data, including chronic pain (>3 months, in at least 1 of 7 prespecified body sites) and chronic widespread pain (>3 months, all over body), were linked to COVID-19 hospitalisations or mortality. Univariable or multivariable Poisson regression analyses were performed on the association between chronic pain and COVID-19 hospitalisation and Cox regression analyses of the associations with COVID-19 mortality. Multivariable analyses adjusted incrementally for sociodemographic confounders, then lifestyle risk factors, and finally long-term condition count. Of 441,403 UK Biobank participants with complete data, 3180 (0.7%) were hospitalised for COVID-19 and 1040 (0.2%) died from COVID-19. Chronic pain was associated with hospital admission for COVID-19 even after adjustment for all covariates (incidence rate ratio 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.24; P < 0.001), as was chronic widespread pain (incidence rate ratio 1.33; 95% CI 1.06-1.66; P = 0.012). There was clear evidence of a dose-response relationship with number of pain sites (fully adjusted global P -value < 0.001). After adjustment for all covariates, there was no association between chronic pain (HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.89-1.15; P = 0.834) but attenuated association with chronic widespread pain (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.04-2.16, P -value = 0.032) and COVID-19 mortality. Chronic pain is associated with higher risk of hospitalisation for COVID-19, but the association with mortality is unclear. Future research is required to investigate these findings further and determine whether pain is associated with long COVID.

Studying the Long-term Impact of COVID-19 in Kids (SLICK). Healthcare use and costs in children and young people following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection: protocol for an observational study using linked primary and secondary routinely collected healthcare data from England, Scotland and Wales.

INTRODUCTION: SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely causes hospitalisation in children and young people (CYP), but mild or asymptomatic infections are common. Persistent symptoms following infection have been reported in CYP but subsequent healthcare use is unclear. We aim to describe healthcare use in CYP following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify those at risk of ongoing healthcare needs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will use anonymised individual-level, population-scale national data linking demographics, comorbidities, primary and secondary care use and mortality between 1 January 2019 and 1 May 2022. SARS-CoV-2 test data will be linked from 1 January 2020 to 1 May 2022. Analyses will use Trusted Research Environments: OpenSAFELY in England, Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank in Wales and Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 in Scotland (EAVE-II). CYP aged ≥4 and <18 years who underwent SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) testing between 1 January 2020 and 1 May 2021 and those untested CYP will be examined.The primary outcome measure is cumulative healthcare cost over 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 testing, stratified into primary or secondary care, and physical or mental healthcare. We will estimate the burden of healthcare use attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections in the 12 months after testing using a matched cohort study of RT-PCR positive, negative or untested CYP matched on testing date, with adjustment for confounders. We will identify factors associated with higher healthcare needs in the 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection using an unmatched cohort of RT-PCR positive CYP. Multivariable logistic regression and machine learning approaches will identify risk factors for high healthcare use and characterise patterns of healthcare use post infection. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the South-Central Oxford C Health Research Authority Ethics Committee (13/SC/0149). Findings will be preprinted and published in peer-reviewed journals. Analysis code and code lists will be available through public GitHub repositories and OpenCodelists with meta-data via HDR-UK Innovation Gateway.

PROTOCOL: Conflict of interest issues when engaging stakeholders in health and healthcare guideline development: a systematic review.

This is the protocol for a Campbell systematic review. The overall objective of this study is to gather and summarize the existing literature on conflict of interest issues when engaging stakeholders in guideline development.

Using candidacy theory to explore unemployed over-50s perceptions of suitability of a welfare to work programme: A longitudinal qualitative study.

Welfare to work interventions seek to move out-of-work individuals from claiming unemployment benefits towards paid work. However, previous research has highlighted that for over-50s, particularly those with chronic health conditions, participation in such activities are less likely to result in a return to work. Using longitudinal semi-structured interviews, we followed 26 over-50s during their experience of a mandated welfare to work intervention (the Work Programme) in the United Kingdom. Focusing on their perception of suitability, we utilise and adapt Candidacy Theory to explore how previous experiences of work, health, and interaction with staff (both in the intervention, and with healthcare practitioners) influence these perceptions. Despite many participants acknowledging the benefit of work, many described a pessimism regarding their own ability to return to work in the future, and therefore their lack of suitability for this intervention. This was particularly felt by those with chronic health conditions, who reflected on difficulties with managing their conditions (e.g., attending appointments, adhering to treatment regimens). By adapting Candidacy Theory, we highlighted the ways that mandatory intervention was navigated by all the participants, and how some discussed attempts to remove themselves from this intervention. We also discuss the role played by decision makers such as employment-support staff and healthcare practitioners in supporting or contesting these feelings. Findings suggest that greater effort is required by policy makers to understand the lived experience of chronic illness in terms of ability to RTW, and the importance of inter-agency work in shaping perceptions of those involved.

Proportionate universalism in practice? A quasi-experimental study (GoWell) of a UK neighbourhood renewal programme's impact on health inequalities.

Recommendations to reduce health inequalities frequently emphasise improvements to socio-environmental determinants of health. Proponents of 'proportionate universalism' argue that such improvements should be allocated proportionally to population need. We tested whether city-wide investment in urban renewal in Glasgow (UK) was allocated to 'need' and whether this reduced health inequalities. We identified a longitudinal cohort (n = 1006) through data linkage across surveys conducted in 2006 and 2011 in 14 differentially disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Each neighbourhood received renewal investment during that time, allocated on the basis of housing need. We grouped neighbourhoods into those receiving 'higher', 'medium' or 'lower' levels of investment. We compared residents' self-reported physical and mental health between these three groups over time using the SF-12 version 2 instrument. Multiple linear regression adjusted for baseline gender, age, education, household structure, housing tenure, building type, country of birth and clustering. Areas receiving higher investment tended to be most disadvantaged in terms of baseline health, income deprivation and markers of social disadvantage. After five years, mean mental health scores improved in 'higher investment' areas relative to 'lower investment' areas (b = 4.26; 95% CI = 0.29, 8.22; P = 0.036). Similarly, mean physical health scores declined less in high investment compared to low investment areas (b = 3.86; 95% CI = 1.96, 5.76; P < 0.001). Relative improvements for medium investment (compared to lower investment) areas were not statistically significant. Findings suggest that investment in housing-led renewal was allocated according to population need and this led to modest reductions in area-based inequalities in health after five years. Study limitations include a risk of selection bias. This study demonstrates how non-health interventions can, and we believe should, be evaluated to better understand if and how health inequalities can be reduced through strategies of allocating investment in social determinants of health according to need.

Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol.

BACKGROUND: Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the 'Sheffield model'). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders' views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy. METHODS: In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed. RESULTS: Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the 'real life' world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process. CONCLUSION: Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence.

A comparison of trends in caesarean section rates in former communist (transition) countries and other European countries.

Caesarean section rates are rising across Europe, and concerns exist that increases are not clinically indicated. Societal, cultural and health system factors have been identified as influential. Former communist (transition) countries have experienced radical changes in these potential determinants, and we, therefore, hypothesized they may exhibit differing trends to non-transition countries. By analysing data from the WHO Europe Health for All Database, we find transition countries had a relatively low caesarean section rate in 2000 but have since experienced more rapid increases than other countries (average annual percentage change 7.9 vs. 2.4).

Life course socio-economic position and quality of life in adulthood: a systematic review of life course models.

BACKGROUND: A relationship between current socio-economic position and subjective quality of life has been demonstrated, using wellbeing, life and needs satisfaction approaches. Less is known regarding the influence of different life course socio-economic trajectories on later quality of life. Several conceptual models have been proposed to help explain potential life course effects on health, including accumulation, latent, pathway and social mobility models. This systematic review aimed to assess whether evidence supported an overall relationship between life course socio-economic position and quality of life during adulthood and if so, whether there was support for one or more life course models. METHODS: A review protocol was developed detailing explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria, search terms, data extraction items and quality appraisal procedures. Literature searches were performed in 12 electronic databases during January 2012 and the references and citations of included articles were checked for additional relevant articles. Narrative synthesis was used to analyze extracted data and studies were categorized based on the life course model analyzed. RESULTS: Twelve studies met the eligibility criteria and used data from 10 datasets and five countries. Study quality varied and heterogeneity between studies was high. Seven studies assessed social mobility models, five assessed the latent model, two assessed the pathway model and three tested the accumulation model. Evidence indicated an overall relationship, but mixed results were found for each life course model. Some evidence was found to support the latent model among women, but not men. Social mobility models were supported in some studies, but overall evidence suggested little to no effect. Few studies addressed accumulation and pathway effects and study heterogeneity limited synthesis. CONCLUSIONS: To improve potential for synthesis in this area, future research should aim to increase study comparability. Recommendations include testing all life course models within individual studies and the use of multiple measures of socio-economic position and quality of life. Comparable cross-national data would be beneficial to enable investigation of between-country differences.

Is there a divergence in time trends in the prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes? A systematic review in South Asian populations.

OBJECTIVE: Recently, diabetes prevalence has increased in South Asians making it a global public health priority. There are suggestions that pre-diabetes, including impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), may not be increasing. We conducted a systematic review to explore the paradox. Research Design and Methods We searched electronic databases from inception to June 2009 for cross-sectional studies providing prevalence of pre-diabetes (using WHO criteria) in South Asian adult populations. Two reviewers independently screened articles, performed data extraction, quality appraisal and study classification with any discrepancies resolved by consensus. Repeated cross-sectional studies, categorized by pre-specified criteria, were used for the primary analysis, supplemented by analysis of comparable and all studies. RESULTS: In total, 79 cross-sectional data sets (from 69 published studies) were identified resulting in the inclusion of 179 408 people. Four sets of repeated cross-sectional studies, conducted in Chennai, rural Tamil Nadu, Mauritius and Singapore (n = 30,399), provided time trend information. Three of them showed an increase in diabetes prevalence (P < 0.001) whereas IGT fell in two (P < 0.05), and was stable in the remainder. A similar pattern was seen among three other sets of comparable studies (n = 58,820) and in scatterplots of all 79 data sets. CONCLUSION: This novel systematic review is the first to assess secular trends of pre-diabetes in any population. The data show diabetes prevalence is rising, whereas IGT prevalence is stable or falling. Explanations include: recent environmental or lifestyle changes favouring an increased rate of conversion from IGT to diabetes, or a cohort effect with improving maternal and infant nutrition resulting in reduced IGT with a fall in diabetes to follow.