ggMOB: Elucidation of genomic conjugative features and associated cargo genes across bacterial genera using genus-genus mobilization networks.

Horizontal gene transfer mediated by conjugation is considered an important evolutionary mechanism of bacteria. It allows organisms to quickly evolve new phenotypic properties including antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and virulence. The frequency of conjugation-mediated cargo gene exchange has not yet been comprehensively studied within and between bacterial taxa. We developed a frequency-based network of genus-genus conjugation features and candidate cargo genes from whole-genome sequence data of over 180,000 bacterial genomes, representing 1,345 genera. Using our method, which we refer to as ggMOB, we revealed that over half of the bacterial genomes contained one or more known conjugation features that matched exactly to at least one other genome. Moreover, the proportion of genomes containing these conjugation features varied substantially by genus and conjugation feature. These results and the genus-level network structure can be viewed interactively in the ggMOB interface, which allows for user-defined filtering of conjugation features and candidate cargo genes. Using the network data, we observed that the ratio of AMR gene representation in conjugative versus non-conjugative genomes exceeded 5:1, confirming that conjugation is a critical force for AMR spread across genera. Finally, we demonstrated that clustering genomes by conjugation profile sometimes correlated well with classical phylogenetic structuring; but that in some cases the clustering was highly discordant, suggesting that the importance of the accessory genome in driving bacterial evolution may be highly variable across both time and taxonomy. These results can advance scientific understanding of bacterial evolution, and can be used as a starting point for probing genus-genus gene exchange within complex microbial communities that include unculturable bacteria. ggMOB is publicly available under the GNU licence at https://ruiz-hci-lab.github.io/ggMOB/.

Predicting Epitope Candidates for SARS-CoV-2.

Epitopes are short amino acid sequences that define the antigen signature to which an antibody or T cell receptor binds. In light of the current pandemic, epitope analysis and prediction are paramount to improving serological testing and developing vaccines. In this paper, known epitope sequences from SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and other Coronaviridae were leveraged to identify additional antigen regions in 62K SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Additionally, we present epitope distribution across SARS-CoV-2 genomes, locate the most commonly found epitopes, and discuss where epitopes are located on proteins and how epitopes can be grouped into classes. The mutation density of different protein regions is presented using a big data approach. It was observed that there are 112 B cell and 279 T cell conserved epitopes between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, with more diverse sequences found in Nucleoprotein and Spike glycoprotein.

Functional Genomics Platform, A Cloud-Based Platform for Studying Microbial Life at Scale.

The rapid growth in biological sequence data is revolutionizing our understanding of genotypic diversity and challenging conventional approaches to informatics. With the increasing availability of genomic data, traditional bioinformatic tools require substantial computational time and the creation of ever-larger indices each time a researcher seeks to gain insight from the data. To address these challenges, we pre-computed important relationships between biological entities spanning the Central Dogma of Molecular Biology and captured this information in a relational database. The database can be queried across hundreds of millions of entities and returns results in a fraction of the time required by traditional methods. In this paper, we describe Functional Genomics Platform (formerly known as OMXWare), a comprehensive database relating genotype to phenotype for bacterial life. Continually updated, the Functional Genomics Platform today contains data derived from 200,000 curated, self-consistently assembled genomes. The database stores functional data for over 68 million genes, 52 million proteins, and 239 million domains with associated biological activity annotations from Gene Ontology, KEGG, MetaCyc, and Reactome. The Functional Genomics Platform maps all of the many-to-many connections between each biological entity including the originating genome, gene, protein, and protein domain. Various microbial studies, from infectious disease to environmental health, can benefit from the rich data and connections. We describe the data selection, the pipeline to create and update the Functional Genomics Platform, and the developer tools (Python SDK and REST APIs)which allow researchers to efficiently study microbial life at scale.

Semi-Supervised Pipeline for Autonomous Annotation of SARS-CoV-2 Genomes.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing efforts have scaled dramatically to address the current global pandemic and aid public health. However, autonomous genome annotation of SARS-CoV-2 genes, proteins, and domains is not readily accomplished by existing methods and results in missing or incorrect sequences. To overcome this limitation, we developed a novel semi-supervised pipeline for automated gene, protein, and functional domain annotation of SARS-CoV-2 genomes that differentiates itself by not relying on the use of a single reference genome and by overcoming atypical genomic traits that challenge traditional bioinformatic methods. We analyzed an initial corpus of 66,000 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected from labs across the world using our method and identified the comprehensive set of known proteins with 98.5% set membership accuracy and 99.1% accuracy in length prediction, compared to proteome references, including Replicase polyprotein 1ab (with its transcriptional slippage site). Compared to other published tools, such as Prokka (base) and VAPiD, we yielded a 6.4- and 1.8-fold increase in protein annotations. Our method generated 13,000,000 gene, protein, and domain sequences-some conserved across time and geography and others representing emerging variants. We observed 3362 non-redundant sequences per protein on average within this corpus and described key D614G and N501Y variants spatiotemporally in the initial genome corpus. For spike glycoprotein domains, we achieved greater than 97.9% sequence identity to references and characterized receptor binding domain variants. We further demonstrated the robustness and extensibility of our method on an additional 4000 variant diverse genomes containing all named variants of concern and interest as of August 2021. In this cohort, we successfully identified all keystone spike glycoprotein mutations in our predicted protein sequences with greater than 99% accuracy as well as demonstrating high accuracy of the protein and domain annotations. This work comprehensively presents the molecular targets to refine biomedical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 with a scalable, high-accuracy method to analyze newly sequenced infections as they arise.

Globally local: Hyper-local modeling for accurate forecast of COVID-19.

IMPORTANCE: Assumption of a well-mixed population during modeling is often erroneously made without due analysis of its validity. Ignoring the importance of the geo-spatial granularity at which the data is collected could have significant implications on the quality of forecasts and the actionable clinical recommendations that are based on it. OBJECTIVE: This paper's primary objective is to test the hypothesis that the characteristic dynamics defining the trajectory of the pandemic in a region is lost when the data is aggregated and modeled at higher geo-spatial levels. DESIGN: We use publicly available confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths from January 1st, 2020 to August 3rd, 2020 in the United States at different geo-spatial granularities to conduct our experiments. To understand the impact of this hypothesis, the output of this study was implemented in Tampa General Hospital (TGH) to provide resource demand forecast. RESULTS: The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in the forecast confirmed cases can be 30% higher for modeling at the state-level than aggregating model results at the scale of counties or clusters of counties. Similarly, modeling at a state-level and crafting policy decisions based on them may not be effective - county-level forecasts made by partitioning state-level forecasts are 3x worse for confirmed cases and 20x worse for deaths relative to the same model at the county level. By leveraging these results, TGH was able to accurately allocate clinical resources to tackle COVID-19 cases, continue elective surgical procedures largely uninterrupted and avoid costly construction of overflow capacity in the first two epidemic waves. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Accurate forecasting at the county level requires hyper-local modeling with county resolution. State-level modeling does not accurately predict community spread in smaller sub-regions because state populations are not well mixed, resulting in large prediction errors. Actionable decisions such as deciding whether to cancel planned surgeries or construct overflow capacity require models with local specificity.

A comparative analysis of two unrelated outbreaks in Latvia and Australia of acquired idiopathic megaesophagus in dogs fed two brands of commercial dry dog foods: 398 cases (2014-2018).

CASE DESCRIPTION: In Latvia in 2014, acquired idiopathic megaesophagus (AIME) was observed in increased numbers of dogs that consumed varieties of 1 brand of dog food. Within 2 years, 253 dogs were affected. In Australia in November 2017, 6 working dogs that consumed 1 diet of another brand of dog food developed AIME. In total, 145 Australian dogs were affected. CLINICAL FINDINGS: AIME was diagnosed predominantly in large-breed male dogs (> 25 kg [55 lb]). Regurgitation, weight loss, and occasionally signs consistent with aspiration pneumonia (coughing, dyspnea, or fever) were noted. Most Latvian dogs had mild to severe peripheral polyneuropathies as evidenced by laryngeal paralysis, dysphonia, weakness, and histopathologic findings consistent with distal axonopathy. In Australian dogs, peripheral polyneuropathies were not identified, and histopathologic findings suggested that the innervation of the esophagus and pharynx was disrupted locally, although limited samples were available. TREATMENT AND OUTCOME: Investigations in both countries included clinical, epidemiological, neuropathologic, and case-control studies. Strong associations between the dog foods and the presence of AIME were confirmed; however, toxicological analyses did not identify a root cause. In Latvia, the implicated dietary ingredients and formulations were unknown, whereas in Australia, extensive investigations were conducted into the food, its ingredients, the supply chain, and the manufacturing facilities, but a cause was not identified. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: A panel of international multidisciplinary experts concluded that the cause of AIME in both outbreaks was likely multifactorial, with the possibility of individualized sensitivities. Without a sentinel group, the outbreak in Australia may not have been recognized for months to years, as happened in Latvia. A better surveillance system for early identification of pet illnesses, including those associated with pet foods, is needed.

Analysis and forecasting of global real time RT-PCR primers and probes for SARS-CoV-2.

Rapid tests for active SARS-CoV-2 infections rely on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). RT-PCR uses reverse transcription of RNA into complementary DNA (cDNA) and amplification of specific DNA (primer and probe) targets using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The technology makes rapid and specific identification of the virus possible based on sequence homology of nucleic acid sequence and is much faster than tissue culture or animal cell models. However the technique can lose sensitivity over time as the virus evolves and the target sequences diverge from the selective primer sequences. Different primer sequences have been adopted in different geographic regions. As we rely on these existing RT-PCR primers to track and manage the spread of the Coronavirus, it is imperative to understand how SARS-CoV-2 mutations, over time and geographically, diverge from existing primers used today. In this study, we analyze the performance of the SARS-CoV-2 primers in use today by measuring the number of mismatches between primer sequence and genome targets over time and spatially. We find that there is a growing number of mismatches, an increase by 2% per month, as well as a high specificity of virus based on geographic location.

Re-purposing software for functional characterization of the microbiome.

BACKGROUND: Widespread bioinformatic resource development generates a constantly evolving and abundant landscape of workflows and software. For analysis of the microbiome, workflows typically begin with taxonomic classification of the microorganisms that are present in a given environment. Additional investigation is then required to uncover the functionality of the microbial community, in order to characterize its currently or potentially active biological processes. Such functional analysis of metagenomic data can be computationally demanding for high-throughput sequencing experiments. Instead, we can directly compare sequencing reads to a functionally annotated database. However, since reads frequently match multiple sequences equally well, analyses benefit from a hierarchical annotation tree, e.g. for taxonomic classification where reads are assigned to the lowest taxonomic unit. RESULTS: To facilitate functional microbiome analysis, we re-purpose well-known taxonomic classification tools to allow us to perform direct functional sequencing read classification with the added benefit of a functional hierarchy. To enable this, we develop and present a tree-shaped functional hierarchy representing the molecular function subset of the Gene Ontology annotation structure. We use this functional hierarchy to replace the standard phylogenetic taxonomy used by the classification tools and assign query sequences accurately to the lowest possible molecular function in the tree. We demonstrate this with simulated and experimental datasets, where we reveal new biological insights. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that improved functional classification of metagenomic sequencing reads is possible by re-purposing a range of taxonomic classification tools that are already well-established, in conjunction with either protein or nucleotide reference databases. We leverage the advances in speed, accuracy and efficiency that have been made for taxonomic classification and translate these benefits for the rapid functional classification of microbiomes. While we focus on a specific set of commonly used methods, the functional annotation approach has broad applicability across other sequence classification tools. We hope that re-purposing becomes a routine consideration during bioinformatic resource development. Video abstract.

Hierarchically Labeled Database Indexing Allows Scalable Characterization of Microbiomes.

Increasingly available microbial reference data allow interpreting the composition and function of previously uncharacterized microbial communities in detail, via high-throughput sequencing analysis. However, efficient methods for read classification are required when the best database matches for short sequence reads are often shared among multiple reference sequences. Here, we take advantage of the fact that microbial sequences can be annotated relative to established tree structures, and we develop a highly scalable read classifier, PRROMenade, by enhancing the generalized Burrows-Wheeler transform with a labeling step to directly assign reads to the corresponding lowest taxonomic unit in an annotation tree. PRROMenade solves the multi-matching problem while allowing fast variable-size sequence classification for phylogenetic or functional annotation. Our simulations with 5% added differences from reference indicated only 1.5% error rate for PRROMenade functional classification. On metatranscriptomic data PRROMenade highlighted biologically relevant functional pathways related to diet-induced changes in the human gut microbiome.

Insular Microbiogeography: Three Pathogens as Exemplars.

Traditional taxonomy in biology assumes that life is organized in a simple tree. Attempts to classify microorganisms in this way in the genomics era led microbiologists to look for finite sets of 'core' genes that uniquely group taxa as clades in the tree. However, the diversity revealed by large-scale whole genome sequencing is calling into question the long-held model of a hierarchical tree of life, which leads to questioning of the definition of a species. Large-scale studies of microbial genome diversity reveal that the cumulative number of new genes discovered increases with the number of genomes studied as a power law and subsequently leads to the lack of evidence for a unique core genome within closely related organisms. Sampling 'enough' new genomes leads to the discovery of a replacement or alternative to any gene. This power law behaviour points to an underlying self-organizing critical process that may be guided by mutation and niche selection. Microbes in any particular niche exist within a local web of organism interdependence known as the microbiome. The same mechanism that underpins the macro-ecological scaling first observed by MacArthur and Wilson also applies to microbial communities. Recent metagenomic studies of a food microbiome demonstrate the diverse distribution of community members, but also genotypes for a single species within a more complex community. Collectively, these results suggest that traditional taxonomic classification of bacteria could be replaced with a quasispecies model. This model is commonly accepted in virology and better describes the diversity and dynamic exchange of genes that also hold true for bacteria. This model will enable microbiologists to conduct population-scale studies to describe microbial behaviour, as opposed to a single isolate as a representative.

Food authentication from shotgun sequencing reads with an application on high protein powders.

Here we propose that using shotgun sequencing to examine food leads to accurate authentication of ingredients and detection of contaminants. To demonstrate this, we developed a bioinformatic pipeline, FASER (Food Authentication from SEquencing Reads), designed to resolve the relative composition of mixtures of eukaryotic species using RNA or DNA sequencing. Our comprehensive database includes >6000 plants and animals that may be present in food. FASER accurately identified eukaryotic species with 0.4% median absolute difference between observed and expected proportions on sequence data from various sources including sausage meat, plants, and fish. FASER was applied to 31 high protein powder raw factory ingredient total RNA samples. The samples mostly contained the expected source ingredient, chicken, while three samples unexpectedly contained pork and beef. Our results demonstrate that DNA/RNA sequencing of food ingredients, combined with a robust analysis, can be used to find contaminants and authenticate food ingredients in a single assay.

STEM: An Open Source Tool for Disease Modeling.

The Spatiotemporal Epidemiologic Modeler (STEM) is an open source software project supported by the Eclipse Foundation and used by a global community of researchers and public health officials working to track and, when possible, control outbreaks of infectious disease in human and animal populations. STEM is not a model or a tool designed for a specific disease; it is a flexible, modular framework supporting exchange and integration of community models, reusable plug-in components, and denominator data, available to researchers worldwide at www.eclipse.org/stem. A review of multiple projects illustrates its capabilities. STEM has been used to study variations in transmission of seasonal influenza in Israel by strains; evaluate social distancing measures taken to curb the H1N1 epidemic in Mexico City; study measles outbreaks in part of London and inform local policy on immunization; and gain insights into H7N9 avian influenza transmission in China. A multistrain dengue fever model explored the roles of the mosquito vector, cross-strain immunity, and antibody response in the frequency of dengue outbreaks. STEM has also been used to study the impact of variations in climate on malaria incidence. During the Ebola epidemic, a weekly conference call supported the global modeling community; subsequent work modeled the impact of behavioral change and tested disease reintroduction via animal reservoirs. Work in Germany tracked salmonella in pork from farm to fork; and a recent doctoral dissertation used the air travel feature to compare the potential threats posed by weaponizing infectious diseases. Current projects include work in Great Britain to evaluate control strategies for parasitic disease in sheep, and in Germany and Hungary, to validate the model and inform policy decisions for African swine fever. STEM Version 4.0.0, released in early 2019, includes tools used in these projects and updates technical aspects of the framework to ease its use and re-use.

Extinction pathways and outbreak vulnerability in a stochastic Ebola model.

A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed from animals to humans. Zoonotic viruses may adapt to a human host eventually becoming endemic in humans, but before doing so punctuated outbreaks of the zoonotic virus may be observed. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) is an example of such a disease. The animal population in which the disease agent is able to reproduce in sufficient number to be able to transmit to a susceptible human host is called a reservoir. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic population dynamics in the presence of a reservoir, specifically the phenomena of disease extinction and reintroduction. Here, we build a stochastic EVD model and explicitly consider the impacts of an animal reservoir on the disease persistence. Our modelling approach enables the analysis of invasion and fade-out dynamics, including the efficacy of possible intervention strategies. We investigate outbreak vulnerability and the probability of local extinction and quantify the effective basic reproduction number. We also consider the effects of dynamic population size. Our results provide an improved understanding of outbreak and extinction dynamics in zoonotic diseases, such as EVD.

Statistical Mechanics and Thermodynamics of Viral Evolution.

This paper uses methods drawn from physics to study the life cycle of viruses. The paper analyzes a model of viral infection and evolution using the "grand canonical ensemble" and formalisms from statistical mechanics and thermodynamics. Using this approach we enumerate all possible genetic states of a model virus and host as a function of two independent pressures-immune response and system temperature. We prove the system has a real thermodynamic temperature, and discover a new phase transition between a positive temperature regime of normal replication and a negative temperature "disordered" phase of the virus. We distinguish this from previous observations of a phase transition that arises as a function of mutation rate. From an evolutionary biology point of view, at steady state the viruses naturally evolve to distinct quasispecies. This paper also reveals a universal relationship that relates the order parameter (as a measure of mutational robustness) to evolvability in agreement with recent experimental and theoretical work. Given that real viruses have finite length RNA segments that encode proteins which determine virus fitness, the approach used here could be refined to apply to real biological systems, perhaps providing insight into immune escape, the emergence of novel pathogens and other results of viral evolution.

A generic open-source software framework supporting scenario simulations in bioterrorist crises.

Since the 2001 anthrax attack in the United States, awareness of threats originating from bioterrorism has grown. This led internationally to increased research efforts to improve knowledge of and approaches to protecting human and animal populations against the threat from such attacks. A collaborative effort in this context is the extension of the open-source Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) simulation and modeling software for agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios. STEM, originally designed to enable community-driven public health disease models and simulations, was extended with new features that enable integration of proprietary data as well as visualization of agent spread along supply and production chains. STEM now provides a fully developed open-source software infrastructure supporting critical modeling tasks such as ad hoc model generation, parameter estimation, simulation of scenario evolution, estimation of effects of mitigation or management measures, and documentation. This open-source software resource can be used free of charge. Additionally, STEM provides critical features like built-in worldwide data on administrative boundaries, transportation networks, or environmental conditions (eg, rainfall, temperature, elevation, vegetation). Users can easily combine their own confidential data with built-in public data to create customized models of desired resolution. STEM also supports collaborative and joint efforts in crisis situations by extended import and export functionalities. In this article we demonstrate specifically those new software features implemented to accomplish STEM application in agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios.

A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence.

BACKGROUND: The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. METHODS: This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence) built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data). The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation's Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM). RESULTS: Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS) error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166-2 national subdivisions and with monthly time sampling. CONCLUSIONS: The high spatial resolution possible with state-of-the-art numerical models can identify regions most likely to require intervention due to climate changes. Higher-resolution surveillance data can provide a better understanding of how climate fluctuations affect malaria incidence and improve predictions. An open-source modelling framework, such as STEM, can be a valuable tool for the scientific community and provide a collaborative platform for developing such models.

The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

BACKGROUND: Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

Lowering the barrier to a decentralized NHIN using the open healthcare framework.

In this paper, we discuss two important elements to lowering the barrier to creation of a National Health Information Network. The first element is the adoption of standards that will enable interoperability while guarantee open interfaces (and preventing vendor lock-in). The second element is the role of open source. While adoption of open standards by large EMR vendors is critically important to enterprise healthcare providers and payors, the availability of inexpensive (or free) standardized Healthcare Information Technology for small physician practices is critical. By analogy to the emergence of the World Wide Web, a framework for creating inexpensive and open source applications for physicians will be as important to realizing a National Health Information Network as availability of free browser technology was to the growth of the internet.

Perceptual distance and the constancy of size and stereoscopic depth.

The relationship between distance and size perception is unclear because of conflicting results of tests investigating the size-distance invariance hypothesis (SDIH), according to which perceived size is proportional to perceived distance. We propose that response bias with regard to measures of perceived distance is at the root of the conflict. Rather than employ the usual method of magnitude estimation, the bias-free two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) method was used to determine the precision (1/sigma) of discriminating depth at different distances. The results led us to define perceptual distance as a bias free power function of physical distance, with an exponent of approximately 0.5. Similar measures involving size differences among stimuli of equal angular size yield the same power function of distance. In addition, size discrimination is noisier than depth discrimination, suggesting that distance information is processed prior to angular size. Size constancy implies that the perceived size is proportional to perceptual distance. Moreover, given a constant relative disparity, depth constancy implies that perceived depth is proportional to the square of perceptual distance. However, the function relating the uncertainties of depth and of size discrimination to distance is the same. Hence, depth and size constancy may be accounted for by the same underlying law.

An extensible spatial and temporal epidemiological modelling system.

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM) which is an extensible software system and framework for modelling the spatial and temporal progression of multiple diseases affecting multiple populations in geographically distributed locations. STEM is an experiment in developing a software system that can model complex epidemiological scenarios while also being extensible by the research community. The ultimate goal of STEM is to provide a common modelling platform powerful enough to be sufficient for all modelling scenarios and extensible in a way that allows different researchers to combine their efforts in developing exceptionally good models. RESULTS: STEM is a powerful modelling system that allows researchers to model scenarios with unmixed populations that are not uniformly distributed and in which multiple populations exist that are being infected with multiple diseases. It's underlying representational framework, a graph, and its software architecture allow the system to be extended by incorporating software components developed by different researchers. CONCLUSION: This approach taken in the design of STEM creates a powerful platform for epidemiological research collaboration. Future versions of the system will make such collaborative efforts easy and common.