Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions.

We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.

Alpine treeline ecotones are potential refugia for a montane pine species threatened by bark beetle outbreaks.

Warming-induced mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) outbreaks have caused extensive mortality of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis; WBP) throughout the species' range. In the highest mountains where WBP occur, they cross alpine treeline ecotones (ATEs) where growth forms transition from trees to shrub-like krummholz, some of which survived recent MPB outbreaks. This observation motivated the hypothesis that ATEs are refugia for WBP because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack and have the potential to produce viable seed. To test this hypothesis, we surveyed WBP mortality along transects from the ATE edge (locally highest krummholz WBP) downslope into the forest and, to distinguish if survival mechanisms are unique to ATEs, across other forest ecotones (OFEs) from the edge of WBP occurrence into the forest. We replicated this design at 10 randomly selected sites in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains. We also surveyed reproduction in a subset of ATE sites. Mortality was nearly absent in upper ATEs (mean ± SE percent dead across all sites of 0.03% ± 0.03% 0-100 m from the edge and 14.1% ± 1.7% 100-500 m from the edge) but was above 20% along OFEs (21.4 ± 5.2% 0-100 m and 32.4 ± 2.7% 100-500 m from the edge). We observed lower reproduction in upper ATEs (16 ± 9.9 cones/ha and 12.9 ± 5.3 viable seeds/cone 0-100 m from the edge) compared to forests below (317.1 ± 64.4 cones/ha and 32.5 ± 2.5 viable seeds/cone 100-500 m from the edge). Uniquely high WBP survival supports the hypothesis that ATEs serve as refugia because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack. However, low reproduction suggests ATE refugia function over longer time periods. Beyond our WBP system, we propose that plant populations in marginal environments are candidate refugia if distinct phenotypes result in reduced disturbance impacts.

Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation of Earth's biological diversity will be achieved only by recognizing and responding to the critical role of fire. In the Anthropocene, this requires that conservation planning explicitly includes the combined effects of human activities and fire regimes. Improved forecasts for biodiversity must also integrate the connections among people, fire, and ecosystems. Such integration provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society sustains biodiversity in a time of changing fire activity.

Integrating Subjective and Objective Dimensions of Resilience in Fire-Prone Landscapes.

Resilience has become a common goal for science-based natural resource management, particularly in the context of changing climate and disturbance regimes. Integrating varying perspectives and definitions of resilience is a complex and often unrecognized challenge to applying resilience concepts to social-ecological systems (SESs) management. Using wildfire as an example, we develop a framework to expose and separate two important dimensions of resilience: the inherent properties that maintain structure, function, or states of an SES and the human perceptions of desirable or valued components of an SES. In doing so, the framework distinguishes between value-free and human-derived, value-explicit dimensions of resilience. Four archetypal scenarios highlight that ecological resilience and human values do not always align and that recognizing and anticipating potential misalignment is critical for developing effective management goals. Our framework clarifies existing resilience theory, connects literature across disciplines, and facilitates use of the resilience concept in research and land-management applications.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Slow lifelong growth predisposes Populus tremuloides trees to mortality.

Widespread dieback of aspen forests, sometimes called sudden aspen decline, has been observed throughout much of western North America, with the highest mortality rates in the southwestern United States. Recent aspen mortality has been linked to drought stress and elevated temperatures characteristic of conditions expected under climate change, but the role of individual aspen tree growth patterns in contributing to recent tree mortality is less well known. We used tree-ring data to investigate the relationship between an individual aspen tree's lifetime growth patterns and mortality. Surviving aspen trees had consistently higher average growth rates for at least 100 years than dead trees. Contrary to observations from late successional species, slow initial growth rates were not associated with a longer lifespan in aspen. Aspen trees that died had slower lifetime growth and slower growth at various stages of their lives than those that survived. Differences in average diameter growth between live and dead trees were significant (α = 0.05) across all time periods tested. Our best logistical model of aspen mortality indicates that younger aspen trees with lower recent growth rates and higher frequencies of abrupt growth declines had an increased risk of mortality. Our findings highlight the need for species-specific mortality functions in forest succession models. Size-dependent mortality functions suitable for late successional species may not be appropriate for species with different life history strategies. For some early successional species, like aspen, slow growth at various stages of the tree's life is associated with increased mortality risk.

Integrating satellite imagery with simulation modeling to improve burn severity mapping.

Both satellite imagery and spatial fire effects models are valuable tools for generating burn severity maps that are useful to fire scientists and resource managers. The purpose of this study was to test a new mapping approach that integrates imagery and modeling to create more accurate burn severity maps. We developed and assessed a statistical model that combines the Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio, a satellite image-based change detection procedure commonly used to map burn severity, with output from the Fire Hazard and Risk Model, a simulation model that estimates fire effects at a landscape scale. Using 285 Composite Burn Index (CBI) plots in Washington and Montana as ground reference, we found that an integrated model explained more variability in CBI (R (2) = 0.47) and had lower mean squared error (MSE = 0.28) than image (R (2) = 0.42 and MSE = 0.30) or simulation-based models (R (2) = 0.07 and MSE = 0.49) alone. Overall map accuracy was also highest for maps created with the Integrated Model (63 %). We suspect that Simulation Model performance would greatly improve with higher quality and more accurate spatial input data. Results of this study indicate the potential benefit of combining satellite image-based methods with a fire effects simulation model to create improved burn severity maps.