Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a 12-month automated text message intervention for weight management in postpartum women with overweight or obesity: protocol for the Supporting MumS (SMS) multisite, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: The reproductive years can increase women's weight-related risk. Evidence for effective postpartum weight management interventions is lacking and engaging women during this life stage is challenging. Following a promising pilot evaluation of the Supporting MumS intervention, we assess if theory-based and bidirectional text messages to support diet and physical activity behaviour change for weight loss and weight loss maintenance, are effective and cost-effective for weight change in postpartum women with overweight or obesity, compared with an active control arm receiving text messages on child health and development. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Two-arm, parallel-group, assessor-blind randomised controlled trial with cost-effectiveness and process evaluations. Women (n=888) with body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2 and within 24 months of giving birth were recruited via community and National Health Service pathways through five UK sites targeting areas of ethnic and socioeconomic diversity. Women were 1:1 randomised to the intervention or active control groups, each receiving automated text messages for 12 months. Data are collected at 0, 6, 12 and 24 months. The primary outcome is weight change at 12 months from baseline, compared between groups. Secondary outcomes include weight change (24 months) and waist circumference (cm), proportional weight gain (>5 kg), BMI (kg/m2), dietary intake, physical activity, infant feeding and mental health (6, 12 and 24 months, respectively). Economic evaluation examines health service usage and personal expenditure, health-related quality of life and capability well-being to assess cost-effectiveness over the trial and modelled lifetime. Cost-utility analysis examines cost per quality-adjusted life-years gained over 24 months. Mixed-method process evaluation explores participants' experiences and contextual factors impacting outcomes and implementation. Stakeholder interviews examine scale-up and implementation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained before data collection (West of Scotland Research Ethics Service Research Ethics Committee (REC) 4 22/WS/0003). Results will be published via a range of outputs and audiences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN16299220.

Text Messages With Financial Incentives for Men With Obesity: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Effective weight loss interventions are needed for men with obesity. Objective: To determine whether an intervention that combined text messaging with financial incentives attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group and whether an intervention of text messaging alone attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group. Design, Setting, and Participants: An assessor-blinded randomized clinical trial conducted in Belfast, Bristol, and Glasgow areas in the UK. A total of 585 men with body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more were enrolled between July 2021 and May 2022. Final follow-up occurred June 2023. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to 12 months of behavioral focused text messages combined with financial incentives (n = 196), 12 months of behavioral focused text messages alone (n= 194), or a waiting list (control group; n= 195). The financial incentive consisted of a monetary reward that was lost if weight loss targets were not met. All participants received weight management information and a pedometer at baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: The 2 primary comparisons were the 12-month comparison of within-participant weight change between the text messaging with financial incentive group and the control group and the comparison between the text messaging alone group and the control group (minimum clinically important difference, 3%). The P value defined for statistical significance was P < .025 for each comparison. Results: Of the 585 men (mean [SD] age, 50.7 [13.3] years; mean weight, 118.5 [19.9] kg; mean BMI, 37.7 [5.7]; 525 [90%] White), 227 (39%) lived in postal code areas with lower socioeconomic status, and 426 (73%) completed the 12-month follow-up. At the 12-month follow-up, compared with the control group, the mean percent weight change was significantly greater in the text messaging with financial incentive group (mean difference, -3.2%; 97.5% CI, -4.6% to -1.9%; P < .001) but was not significantly greater in the text messaging alone group (mean difference, -1.4%; 97.5% CI, -2.9% to 0.0, P = .05). The mean (SD) weight changes were -5.7 (7.4) kg for the text messaging with financial incentives group, -3.0 (7.5) kg for the text messaging alone group, and -1.5 (6.6) kg for the control group. The 12-month mean (SD) percentage weight changes from baseline were -4.8% (6.1%) for the text messaging with financial incentives group, -2.7% (6.3%) for text messaging alone group, and -1.3% (5.5%) for the control group. Of 366 adverse events reported, the most common were infections (83 [23%]). Of the 23 serious adverse events (6.3%), 12 (52%) occurred in the text messaging with financial incentives group, 5 (22%) in the texts messaging alone group, and 6 (26%) in the control group. None were considered related to participating in a trial group. Conclusion and Relevance: Among men with obesity, an intervention with text messaging with financial incentive significantly improved weight loss compared with a control group, whereas text messaging alone was not significantly better than the control condition. These findings support text messaging combined with financial incentives to attain weight loss in men with obesity. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN91974895.

Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population.

Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years. Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses. Results: The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people. Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Mechanisms through which befriending services may impact the health of older adults: A dyadic qualitative investigation.

Befriending services are often delivered to older adults with a view to improving social connectedness, but they may also lead to improved health. The objective of the current study was to explore potential mechanisms through which befriending services might impact the health of older adults. Data were collected from 13 befriendee-befriender dyads (n = 26), using a constructivist grounded theory and dyadic analytic approach. Potential mechanisms were described, using a realist evaluative framework of mechanistic processes in a complex intervention context. Five mechanisms of action triggered by the intervention were identified: supporting health behaviours; providing emotional support; improving mood; getting cognitive stimulation and novelty; and providing opportunities for socialising. We identified five potential mechanisms through which befriending services might impact health for older people. Our results suggest potential mechanisms through which befriending might positively impact the health of older people, and which should be evaluated empirically in future research.

Frailty on the island of Ireland: evidence from the NICOLA and TILDA studies.

BACKGROUND: Aimed to compare the prevalence, characteristics, and associated mortality risk of frailty in Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI). METHODS: Secondary analysis of the first wave of two nationally representative cohorts, the Northern Ireland Cohort for the Longitudinal Study of Ageing or NICOLA study (N = 8504) and the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing or TILDA study (N = 8504). Frailty was assessed using a harmonized accumulation deficits frailty index (FI) containing 30 items. FI scores classified individuals as non-frail (<0.10), pre-frail (0.10-0.24) and frail (≥0.25). Linkage to respective administrative data sources provided mortality information with a follow-up time of 8 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of frailty was considerably higher in NI compared with the ROI (29.0% compared with 15.0%), though pre-frailty was slightly lower (35.8% and 37.3%, respectively). Age, female sex, and lower socio-economic status were consistently associated with a higher likelihood of both pre-frailty and frailty. In the pooled analysis, both frailty and pre-frailty were higher in NI (RR = 2.68, 95% CIs 2.45, 2.94 and RR = 1.30, 95% CIs 1.21, 1.40, respectively). Frailty was associated with an increased mortality risk in both cohorts, even after full adjustment for all other characteristics, being marginally higher in TILDA than in NICOLA (HR = 2.43, 95% CIs 2.03, 2.91 vs. HR = 2.31, 95% CIs 1.90, 2.79). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is a major public health concern for both jurisdictions. Further research and monitoring are required to elucidate why there is a higher prevalence in NI and to identify factors in early life that may be driving these differences.

C-reactive protein modifies lipoprotein(a)-related risk for coronary heart disease: the BiomarCaRE project.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recent investigations have suggested an interdependence of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)]-related risk for cardiovascular disease with background inflammatory burden. The aim the present analysis was to investigate whether high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) modulates the association between Lp(a) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. METHODS: Data from 71 678 participants from 8 European prospective population-based cohort studies were used (65 661 without/6017 with established CHD at baseline; median follow-up 9.8/13.8 years, respectively). Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted models were calculated according to accompanying hsCRP concentration (<2 and ≥2 mg/L). RESULTS: Among CHD-free individuals, increased Lp(a) levels were associated with incident CHD irrespective of hsCRP concentration: fully adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratios [sHRs (95% confidence interval)] for the highest vs. lowest fifth of Lp(a) distribution were 1.45 (1.23-1.72) and 1.48 (1.23-1.78) for a hsCRP group of <2 and ≥2 mg/L, respectively, with no interaction found between these two biomarkers on CHD risk (Pinteraction = 0.82). In those with established CHD, similar associations were seen only among individuals with hsCRP ≥ 2 mg/L [1.34 (1.03-1.76)], whereas among participants with a hsCRP concentration <2 mg/L, there was no clear association between Lp(a) and future CHD events [1.29 (0.98-1.71)] (highest vs. lowest fifth, fully adjusted models; Pinteraction = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: While among CHD-free individuals Lp(a) was significantly associated with incident CHD regardless of hsCRP, in participants with CHD at baseline, Lp(a) was related to recurrent CHD events only in those with residual inflammatory risk. These findings might guide adequate selection of high-risk patients for forthcoming Lp(a)-targeting compounds.

Investigating the prevalence of cognitive impairment and dementia in the Northern Ireland Cohort for the Longitudinal Study of Ageing (NICOLA): the Harmonised Cognitive Assessment Protocol (HCAP) cross-sectional substudy.

INTRODUCTION: The Northern Ireland Cohort for the Longitudinal Study of Ageing (NICOLA) study is the largest study of ageing in Northern Ireland (NI). The Harmonised Cognitive Assessment Protocol (HCAP) is a substudy of NICOLA designed to assess cognitive impairment and dementia in individuals aged 65 and over. The NICOLA-HCAP substudy is funded by the National Institute on Aging as part of a network for enhancing cross-national research within a worldwide group of population-based, longitudinal studies of ageing, all of which are centred around the US-based Health and Retirement Study. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The NICOLA-HCAP study will draw on the main NICOLA cohort (of 8283 participants) and randomly sample 1000 participants aged 65 and over to take part in the substudy. Participants will complete a series of cognitive tests (n=19) via a computer-assisted personal interview administered in their home (or alternatively within the research centre) and will be asked to nominate a family member or friend to complete an additional interview of validated instruments to provide information on respondent's prior and current cognitive and physical functioning and whether the individual requires help with daily activities. The objectives of the study are: to investigate the prevalence of dementia and cognitive impairment in NICOLA; harmonise scoring of the NICOLA-HCAP data to the HCAP studies conducted in Ireland, the USA and England; to explore the validity of dementia estimates; and investigate the risk factors for dementia and cognitive impairment. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study received ethical approval from the Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Research Ethics Committee, Queen's University Belfast. We will provide data from the Northern Irish HCAP to the research community via data repositories such as the Dementias Platform UK and Gateway to Global Aging to complement existing public data resources and support epidemiological research by others. Findings will also be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and at international conferences.

The feasibility and acceptability of a rewards system based on food purchasing behaviour in secondary school cashless canteens: the Eat4Treats (E4T) cluster feasibility, non-randomised, controlled intervention study.

BACKGROUND: Using rewards may be an effective method to positively influence children's eating behaviour but evidence to date is limited, particularly in older children. The cashless canteen systems in schools provides a unique opportunity to implement a food-based reward scheme but intervention development work and feasibility testing is needed. The overall aim of the E4T feasibility study was to examine the feasibility and acceptability of implementing a rewards scheme based on the food purchasing behaviour of pupils in cashless canteens in secondary schools. METHODS: A non-randomised, controlled, parallel-group cluster feasibility study conducted in four secondary schools (two intervention and two control) serving areas of the highest social deprivation in Northern Ireland. During the 4-month trial, pupils earned points for foods purchased at the school canteen, with better nutritional choices having a higher value. Pupils could exchange the points they earned for rewards (e.g. stationery, vouchers, sports equipment) via the E4T website. Qualitative and quantitative data was collected from year 9 and 10 pupils (boys and girls aged 12-14 years), teachers and canteen staff to address the feasibility questions. RESULTS: Two intervention (one urban, one rural) and one control (urban) school completed the study. Seventy-one percent of 12-14-year-old pupils consented to take part; 1% of parents opted their child out of the study. Questionnaire completion rates were high (6 and 11% of questionnaires were partially completed at baseline and follow-up respectively). Collecting data on food consumed in the canteen was challenging logistically. Focus groups with pupils indicated that the overall concept of E4T was well received and there was a high degree of satisfaction with the rewards available. Pupils and teachers made several suggestions for improvements. CONCLUSIONS: E4T was successfully implemented as a result of collaboration between schools, school canteens and cashless canteen providers working with a multidisciplinary research team. It was acceptable to pupils, teachers and canteen staff. The findings suggest a few areas for refining implementation and evaluation processes that would need to be considered in the design of a larger trial, particularly resources required to streamline implementation and ways to optimise pupil engagement. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Under review with https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov (retrospective registration-reg number and weblink to be added).

Regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease and its classic risk factors: an analysis of 49 cohorts from 11 European countries.

AIMS: The regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its classic risk factors are unknown. The current study examined these associations in different European regions over a 30-year period. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study sample comprised 553 818 individuals from 49 cohorts in 11 European countries (baseline: 1982-2012) who were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Risk factors [sex, smoking, diabetes, non-HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (BP), and body mass index (BMI)] and CVD events (coronary heart disease or stroke) were harmonized across cohorts. Risk factor-outcome associations were analysed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, and differences in associations were assessed using meta-regression. The differences in the risk factor-CVD associations between central Europe, northern Europe, southern Europe, and the UK were generally small. Men had a slightly higher hazard ratio (HR) in southern Europe (P = 0.043 for overall difference), and those with diabetes had a slightly lower HR in central Europe (P = 0.022 for overall difference) compared with the other regions. Of the six CVD risk factors, minor HR decreases per decade were observed for non-HDL cholesterol [7% per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3-10%] and systolic BP (4% per 20 mmHg; 95% CI, 1-8%), while a minor HR increase per decade was observed for BMI (7% per 10 kg/m2; 95% CI, 1-13%). CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate that all classic CVD risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. Preventive strategies should focus on risk factors with the greatest population attributable risk.

All classic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. The differences in the associations of CVD risk factors with overt CVD between regions of Europe are generally small. Minor temporal hazard decreases were observed for non-HDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure, while a minor hazard increase was observed for body mass index.

A discrete choice experiment to quantify the influence of trial features on the decision to participate in cystic fibrosis trials.

BACKGROUND: Patient-centred trial design optimises recruitment and retention, reduces trial failure rates and increases the diversity of trial cohorts. This allows safe and effective treatments to reach clinic more quickly. To achieve this, patients' views must be incorporated into trial design. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment was used to quantify preferences of pwCF for trials features; medicine type, trial location, stipend, washout, drug access on trial completion and trial design. Respondents were presented pairs of hypothetical trial scenarios with different level combinations assigned through experimental design. Respondents were asked to pick their preferred option or decline both. The cross-sectional data were explored using a Random Parameters Logit model. RESULTS: We received 207 eligible responses between Oct2020-Jan2021. The strongest influence on the decision to participate was trial location; pwCF favour participation at their usual clinical centre. Greater travel distances made respondents less willing to participate. Post-trial drug access ranked second. pwCF would rather participate in modulator trials than trials of other drugs. In general, pwCF did not favour a washout period, but were more prepared to washout non-modulators than modulators. Stipend provision was not ranked highly, but higher stipends increased intention to participate. Trial design (placebo vs open-label) had minimal influence on the decision to participate. There are complex interactions between placebos and washouts. CONCLUSIONS: We used quantitative methods to systematically elicit preferences of pwCF for clinical trials' features. We explore the relevance of our findings to trial design and delivery in the current CF trials landscape.

Identifying the severity of diabetic retinopathy by visual function measures using both traditional statistical methods and interpretable machine learning: a cross-sectional study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine the extent to which diabetic retinopathy severity stage may be classified using machine learning (ML) and commonly used clinical measures of visual function together with age and sex. METHODS: We measured the visual function of 1901 eyes from 1032 participants in the Northern Ireland Sensory Ageing Study, deriving 12 variables from nine visual function tests. Missing values were imputed using chained equations. Participants were divided into four groups using clinical measures and grading of ophthalmic images: no diabetes mellitus (no DM), diabetes but no diabetic retinopathy (DM no DR), diabetic retinopathy without diabetic macular oedema (DR no DMO) and diabetic retinopathy with DMO (DR with DMO). Ensemble ML models were fitted to classify group membership for three tasks, distinguishing (A) the DM no DR group from the no DM group; (B) the DR no DMO group from the DM no DR group; and (C) the DR with DMO group from the DR no DMO group. More conventional multiple logistic regression models were also fitted for comparison. An interpretable ML technique was used to rank the contribution of visual function variables to predictions and to disentangle associations between diabetic eye disease and visual function from artefacts of the data collection process. RESULTS: The performance of the ensemble ML models was good across all three classification tasks, with accuracies of 0.92, 1.00 and 0.84, respectively, for tasks A-C, substantially exceeding the accuracies for logistic regression (0.84, 0.61 and 0.80, respectively). Reading index was highly ranked for tasks A and B, whereas near visual acuity and Moorfields chart acuity were important for task C. Microperimetry variables ranked highly for all three tasks, but this was partly due to a data artefact (a large proportion of missing values). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Ensemble ML models predicted status of diabetic eye disease with high accuracy using just age, sex and measures of visual function. Interpretable ML methods enabled us to identify profiles of visual function associated with different stages of diabetic eye disease, and to disentangle associations from artefacts of the data collection process. Together, these two techniques have great potential for developing prediction models using untidy real-world clinical data.

How Do Adolescent Smoking Prevention Interventions Work in Different Contextual Settings? A Qualitative Comparative Study Between the UK and Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent smoking is associated with significant health and social risks. Previous research has demonstrated the effectiveness of interventions based on behavior change theories in preventing adolescent smoking uptake. However, evidence from the theory-based perspective of evaluation is limited, especially for how such complex interventions work, and how they work when implemented in different contextual settings. METHOD: A comparative qualitative analysis was conducted to explore various influences on behavior change among participants taking part in two smoking prevention interventions in Northern Ireland and Bogotá. Twenty-seven focus groups were conducted in 12 schools (6 in Northern Ireland and 6 in Bogota, n = 195 pupils participated; aged 11-15 years). The Theoretical Domains Framework guided a content analysis of the data. RESULTS: We found similarities across settings in terms of knowledge, skills, and beliefs related to smoking or vaping behavior change, as well as differences in contextual resources and social influence. Different environmental resources included availability to purchase tobacco products in the neighborhoods and previous information about tobacco risk. Participants in both interventions perceived behavioral change outcomes related to personal skills and intention to not smoke or vape. CONCLUSION: These findings have highlighted how both individual factors and contextual resources influence behavior change for smoking prevention in practice. Local contextual factors and social influences affecting pupils should be taken into account in the implementation and evaluation of health behavior change interventions. In particular, this study supports using social and contextual influence strategies in interventions to reduce the onset of adolescent smoking and vaping.

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Effects of non-pharmacological interventions on loneliness among community-dwelling older adults: A systematic review, network meta-analysis, and meta-regression.

BACKGROUND: The highly prevalent late-life loneliness, together with its deleterious health impacts, calls for increasing attention to the need for effective interventions targeting on this growing public health problem. With the increasing evidence on interventions for combating loneliness, it is timely to identify their comparative effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review, meta-analysis and network meta-analysis was to identify and compare the effects of various non-pharmacological interventions on loneliness in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Systematic search was conducted in nine electronic databases from inception to 30th March 2023 for studies investigating the effects of non-pharmacological interventions on loneliness among community-dwelling older adults. The interventions were categorized according to the nature and purpose of use. Pairwise meta-analysis and network meta-analyses were sequentially performed to identify the effects of each category of interventions and their comparative intervention effectiveness, respectively. Meta-regression was performed to examine any influence of study design and participants' characteristics on the intervention effectiveness. The study protocol was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42022307621). RESULTS: A total of 60 studies with 13,295 participants were included. The interventions were categorized as psychological interventions, social support interventions (by digital and non-digital means), behavioral activation, exercise intervention with and without social engagement, multi-component intervention and health promotion. Pairwise meta-analysis identified the positive effect of psychological interventions (Hedges' g = -2.33; 95%CI [-4.40, -0.25]; Z = -2.20, p = 0.003), non-digital social support interventions (Hedges' g = -0.63; 95%CI [-1.16, -0.10]; Z = 2.33, p = 0.02) and multi-component interventions (Hedges' g = -0.28 95%CI [-0.54, -0.03]; Z = -2.15, p = 0.03) on reducing loneliness. Subgroup analysis provided additional insights: i) social support and exercise interventions which integrated active strategies to optimize the social engagement demonstrated more promising intervention effects; ii) behavioral activation and multicomponent interventions worked better for older adults who were male or reported loneliness, respectively, and iii) counseling-based psychological interventions was more effective than mind-body practice. Network meta-analysis consistently pointed to the greatest therapeutic benefits of psychological interventions, and this was followed by exercise-based interventions, non-digital social support interventions and behavioral activation. Meta-regression further suggested that the therapeutic effects of the tested interventions were independent of the various factors relating to study design and participants' characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: This review highlights the more superior effects of psychological interventions in improving loneliness among older adults. Interventions which have an attribute to optimize social dynamic and connectivity may also be effective. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Psychological intervention is the best to beat late-life loneliness, but increasing social dynamic and connectivity may add an impact.

Drinking alcohol in moderation is associated with lower rate of all-cause mortality in individuals with higher rather than lower educational level: findings from the MORGAM project.

The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and alcohol-related diseases has been widely explored. Less is known, however, on whether the association of moderate drinking with all-cause mortality is modified by educational level (EL). Using harmonized data from 16 cohorts in the MORGAM Project (N = 142,066) the association of pattern of alcohol intake with hazard of all-cause mortality across EL (lower = primary-school; middle = secondary-school; higher = university/college degree) was assessed using multivariable Cox-regression and spline curves. A total of 16,695 deaths occurred in 11.8 years (median). In comparison with life-long abstainers, participants drinking 0.1-10 g/d of ethanol had 13% (HR = 0.87; 95%CI: 0.74-1.02), 11% (HR = 0.89; 0.84-0.95) and 5% (HR = 0.95; 0.89-1.02) lower rate of death in higher, middle and lower EL, respectively. Conversely, drinkers > 20 g/d had 1% (HR = 1.01; 0.82-1.25), 10% (HR = 1.10; 1.02-1.19) and 17% (HR = 1.17; 1.09-1.26) higher rate of death. The association of alcohol consumption with all-cause mortality was nonlinear, with a different J-shape by EL levels. It was consistent across both sexes and in various approaches of measuring alcohol consumption, including combining quantity and frequency and it was more evident when the beverage of preference was wine. We observed that drinking in moderation (≤ 10 g/d) is associated with lower mortality rate more evidently in individuals with higher EL than in people with lower EL, while heavy drinking is associated with higher mortality rate more evidently in individuals with lower EL than in people with higher EL, suggesting that advice on reducing alcohol intake should especially target individuals of low EL.

A systematic review to identify and collate factors influencing patient journeys through clinical trials.

Patient-centred trial design and delivery; improves recruitment and retention; increases participant satisfaction; encourages participation by a more representative cohort; and allows researchers to better meet participants' needs. Research in this area mostly focusses on narrow facets of trial participation. We aimed to systematically identify the breadth of patient-centred factors influencing participation and engagement in trials, and collate them into a framework. Through this we hoped to assist researchers to identify factors that could improve patient-centred trial design and delivery. Robust qualitative and mixed methods systematic reviews are becoming increasingly common in health research. The protocol for this review was prospectively registered on PROSPERO, CRD42020184886. We used the SPIDER (Sample, Phenomenon of Interest, Design, Evaluation, Research Type) framework as a standardised systematic search strategy tool. 3 databases were searched as well as references checking, and thematic synthesis was conducted. Screening agreement was performed and code and theme checking were conducted by 2 independent researchers. Data were drawn from 285 peer-reviewed articles. 300 discrete factors were identified, and sorted into 13 themes and subthemes. The full catalogue of factors is included in the Supplementary Material. A summary framework is included in the body of the article. This paper focusses on outlining common ground that themes share, highlighting critical features, and exploring interesting points from the data. Through this, we hope researchers from multiple specialities may be better able to meet patients' needs, protect patients' psychosocial wellbeing, and optimise trial recruitment and retention, with direct positive impact on research time and cost efficiency.

An external validation of the QCOVID3 risk prediction algorithm for risk of hospitalisation and death from COVID-19: An observational, prospective cohort study of 1.66m vaccinated adults in Wales, UK.

INTRODUCTION: At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic there was an urgent need to identify individuals at highest risk of severe outcomes, such as hospitalisation and death following infection. The QCOVID risk prediction algorithms emerged as key tools in facilitating this which were further developed during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic to identify groups of people at highest risk of severe COVID-19 related outcomes following one or two doses of vaccine. OBJECTIVES: To externally validate the QCOVID3 algorithm based on primary and secondary care records for Wales, UK. METHODS: We conducted an observational, prospective cohort based on electronic health care records for 1.66m vaccinated adults living in Wales on 8th December 2020, with follow-up until 15th June 2021. Follow-up started from day 14 post vaccination to allow the full effect of the vaccine. RESULTS: The scores produced by the QCOVID3 risk algorithm showed high levels of discrimination for both COVID-19 related deaths and hospital admissions and good calibration (Harrell C statistic: ≥ 0.828). CONCLUSION: This validation of the updated QCOVID3 risk algorithms in the adult vaccinated Welsh population has shown that the algorithms are valid for use in the Welsh population, and applicable on a population independent of the original study, which has not been previously reported. This study provides further evidence that the QCOVID algorithms can help inform public health risk management on the ongoing surveillance and intervention to manage COVID-19 related risks.

Time and risk preferences and the perceived effectiveness of incentives to comply with diabetic retinopathy screening among older adults with type 2 diabetes.

Behavioral economics has the potential to inform the design of incentives to improve disease screening programs by accounting for various behavioral biases. We investigate the association between multiple behavioral economics concepts and the perceived effectiveness of incentive strategies for behavioral change among older patients with a chronic disease. This association is examined by focusing on diabetic retinopathy screening, which is recommended but very variably followed by persons living with diabetes. Five time and risk preference concepts (i.e., utility curvature, probability weighting, loss aversion, discount rate, and present-bias) are estimated simultaneously in a structural econometric framework, based on a series of deliberately-designed economic experiments offering real money. We find that higher discount rates and loss aversion and lower probability weighting are significantly associated with lower perceived effectiveness of intervention strategies whereas present-bias and utility curvature have an insignificant association with it. Finally, we also observe strong urban vs. rural heterogeneity in the association between our behavioral economic concepts and the perceived effectiveness of intervention strategies.