An evaluation of the national testing response during the COVID-19 pandemic in England: a multistage mixed-methods study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: In 2020, the UK government established a large-scale testing programme to rapidly identify individuals in England who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had COVID-19. This comprised part of the UK government's COVID-19 response strategy, to protect those at risk of severe COVID-19 disease and death and to reduce the burden on the health system. To assess the success of this approach, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) commissioned an independent evaluation of the activities delivered by the National Health System testing programme in England. The primary purpose of this evaluation will be to capture key learnings from the roll-out of testing to different target populations via various testing services between October 2020 and March 2022 and to use these insights to formulate recommendations for future pandemic preparedness strategy. In this protocol, we detail the rationale, approach and study design. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The proposed study involves a stepwise mixed-methods approach, aligned with established methods for the evaluation of complex interventions in health, to retrospectively assess the combined impact of key asymptomatic and symptomatic testing services nationally. The research team will first develop a theory of change, formulated in collaboration with testing service stakeholders, to understand the causal pathways and intended and unintended outcomes of each testing service and explore contextual impacts on each testing service's intended outcomes. Insights gained will help identify indicators to evaluate how the combined aims of the testing programme were achieved, using a mixed-methods approach. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol was granted ethics approval by the UKHSA Research Ethics and Governance Group (reference NR0347). All relevant ethics guidelines will be followed throughout. Findings arising from this evaluation will be used to inform lessons learnt and recommendations for UKHSA on appropriate pandemic preparedness testing programme designs; findings will also be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals, a publicly available report to be published online and at academic conferences. The final report of findings from the evaluation will be used as part of a portfolio of evidence produced for the independent COVID-19 government inquiry in the UK. TRANSPARENCY DECLARATION: The lead author (the manuscript's guarantor) affirms that the manuscript is an honest, accurate and transparent account of the study being reported; no important aspects of the study have been omitted, and any discrepancies from the study as planned have been explained.

The cyclical cascade of HIV care: Temporal care engagement trends within a population-wide cohort.

BACKGROUND: The traditional HIV treatment cascade aims to visualise the journey of each person living with HIV from diagnosis, through initiation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to treatment success, represented by virological suppression. This representation has been a pivotal tool in highlighting and quantifying sequential gaps along the care continuum. There is longstanding recognition, however, that this may oversimplify the complexity of real-world engagement with HIV services in settings with mature high-burden HIV epidemics. A complementary "cyclical" cascade has been proposed to represent the processes of disengagement at different points on the care continuum, with multiple pathways to re-engagement, although the feasibility of implementing this at scale has been uncertain. This study aimed to populate, refine, and explore the utility of a cyclical representation of the HIV cascade, using routine data from a high-burden HIV setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This observational cohort study leveraged person-level data on all people living with HIV in the Western Cape (WC), South Africa, who accessed public health services in the 2 years prior to 31 December 2023. Programme data from disease registers were complemented by data from pharmacy and laboratory systems. At study closure, 494 370 people were included, constituting 93% of those of those estimated to be living with HIV in the province, of whom 355 104 were on ART. Substantial disengagement from HIV care was evident at every point on the cascade. Early treatment emerged as a period of higher risk of disengagement, but it did not account for the majority of disengagement. Almost all those currently disengaged had prior experience of treatment. While re-engagement was also common, overall treatment coverage had increased slowly over 5 years. The transition to dolutegravir-based regimens was dramatic with good virological outcomes for those in care, notwithstanding a clearly discernible impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on viral load (VL) testing. People currently engaged and disengaged in care are similar with respect to age and gender. Those who died or disengaged recently were previously distributed across a range of cascade statuses, and a substantial proportion of those newly initiating and re-initiating treatment were no longer on treatment 6 months later. The main limitation of this study was incomplete evidence of HIV testing, linkage to HIV-specific services, and out-of-facility mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Using routine data, it was possible to populate and automate a cyclical cascade of HIV care that continuously captured the nonlinear care journeys of individuals living with HIV. In this generalised mature HIV epidemic, most people are treatment experienced. Disengagement is common and occurs at various points along the cascade, making it challenging to identify high-impact intervention opportunities. While historical HIV cascades remain valuable for target setting and service monitoring, they can be complemented with insights from more detailed cyclical cascades.

Decision to self-isolate during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK: a rapid scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: Testing for COVID-19 was a key component of the UK's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This strategy relied on positive individuals self-isolating to reduce transmission, making isolation the lynchpin in the public health approach. Therefore, we scoped evidence to systematically identify and categorise barriers and facilitators to compliance with self-isolation guidance during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, to inform public health strategies in future pandemics. DESIGN: A rapid scoping review was conducted. SEARCH STRATEGY: Key terms were used to search literature databases (PubMed, Scopus and the WHO COVID-19 Research Database, on 7 November 2022), Google Scholar and stakeholder-identified manuscripts, ultimately including evidence published in English from UK-based studies conducted between 2020 and 2022. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Data were extracted and synthesised into themes, organised broadly into capability, opportunity and motivation, and reviewed with key stakeholders from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). RESULTS: We included 105 sources, with 63 identified from UKHSA and used to inform their decision-making during the pandemic. Influences on the decision to comply with isolation guidance were categorised into six themes: perceived ability to isolate; information and guidance; logistics; social influences, including trust; perceived value; and perceived consequences. Individuals continuously assessed these factors in deciding whether or not to comply with guidance and self-isolate. CONCLUSIONS: Decisions to self-isolate after a positive test were influenced by multiple factors, including individuals' beliefs, concerns, priorities and personal circumstances. Future testing strategies must facilitate meaningful financial, practical and mental health support to allow individuals to overcome the perceived and actual negative consequences of isolating. Clear, consistent communication of the purpose and procedures of isolating will also be critical to support compliance with self-isolation guidance, and should leverage people's perceived value in protecting others. Building public trust is also essential, but requires investment before the next pandemic starts.

Relationship Between Tenofovir Diphosphate Concentrations in Dried Blood Spots and Virological Outcomes After Initiating Tenofovir-Lamivudine-Dolutegravir as First-Line or Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentration in dried blood spots is a marker of long-term adherence. We investigated the relationship between TFV-DP concentrations and virological outcomes in participants initiating tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir (TLD) as first-line or second-line antiretroviral therapy. SETTING: Three primary care clinics in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS: We conducted a post hoc analysis of 2 randomized controlled trials of participants initiating TLD. TFV-DP concentrations and viral loads were measured at 12, 24, and 48 weeks. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess the association with virological suppression (<50 copies/mL) per natural logarithm increase in TFV-DP concentration. Generalized estimating equations with logit link were used to assess associations with virological rebound. The Akaike Information Criterion and Quasi-likelihood Information Criteria were used to compare models built on continuous TFV-DP data to 4 previously defined concentration categories. RESULTS: We included 294 participants in the analysis, 188 (64%) of whom initiated TLD as second-line therapy. Adjusted odds ratios (95% CIs) of virological suppression were 2.12 (1.23, 3.75), 3.11 (1.84, 5.65), and 4.69 (2.81, 8.68) per natural logarithm increase in TFV-DP concentration at weeks 12, 24, and 48, respectively. In participants with virological suppression at week 12, the adjusted odds ratio for remaining virologically suppressed was 3.63 (95% CI: 2.21 to 5.69) per natural logarithm increase in TFV-DP concentration. Models using continuous TFV-DP data had lower Akaike Information Criterion and Quasi-likelihood Information Criteria values than those using categorical data for predicting virological outcomes. CONCLUSION: TFV-DP concentrations in dried blood spots exhibit a dose-response relationship with viral load. Analyzing TFV-DP concentrations as continuous variables rather than conventional categorization may be appropriate.

'Only twice a year': a qualitative exploration of 6-month antiretroviral treatment refills in adherence clubs for people living with HIV in Khayelitsha, South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: Longer intervals between routine clinic visits and medication refills are part of patient-centred, differentiated service delivery (DSD). They have been shown to improve patient outcomes as well as optimise health services-vital as 'universal test-and-treat' targets increase numbers of HIV patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART). This qualitative study explored patient, healthcare worker and key informant experiences and perceptions of extending ART refills to 6 months in adherence clubs in Khayelitsha, South Africa. DESIGN AND SETTING: In-depth interviews were conducted in isiXhosa with purposively selected patients and in English with healthcare workers and key informants. All transcripts were audio-recorded, transcribed and translated to English, manually coded and thematically analysed. The participants had been involved in a randomised controlled trial evaluating multi-month ART dispensing in adherence clubs, comparing 6-month and 2-month refills. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-three patients, seven healthcare workers and six key informants. RESULTS: Patients found that 6-month refills increased convenience and reduced unintended disclosure. Contrary to key informant concerns about patients' responsibility to manage larger quantities of ART, patients receiving 6-month refills were highly motivated and did not face challenges transporting, storing or adhering to treatment. All participant groups suggested that strict eligibility criteria were necessary for patients to realise the benefits of extended dispensing intervals. Six-month refills were felt to increase health system efficiency, but there were concerns about whether the existing drug supply system could adapt to 6-month refills on a larger scale. CONCLUSIONS: Patients, healthcare workers and key informants found 6-month refills within adherence clubs acceptable and beneficial, but concerns were raised about the reliability of the supply chain to manage extended multi-month dispensing. Stepwise, slow expansion could avoid overstressing supply and allow time for the health system to adapt, permitting 6-month ART refills to enhance current DSD options to be more efficient and patient-centred within current health system constraints.

Developing recommendations for neonatal inpatient care service categories: reflections from the research, policy and practice interface in Kenya.

Neonatal deaths contribute a growing proportion to childhood mortality, and increasing access to inpatient newborn care has been identified as a potential driver of improvements in child health. However, previous work by this research team identified substantial gaps in the coverage and standardisation of inpatient newborn care in Nairobi City County, Kenya. To address the issue in this particular setting, we sought to draft recommendations on the categorisation of neonatal inpatient services through a process of policy review, evidence collation and examination of guidance in other countries. This work supported discussions by a panel of local experts representing a diverse set of stakeholders, who focused on formulating pragmatic, context-relevant guidance. Experts in the discussions rapidly agreed on overarching priorities guiding their decision-making, and that three categories of inpatient neonatal care (standard, intermediate and intensive care) were appropriate. Through a modified nominal group technique, they achieved consensus on allocating 36 of the 38 proposed services to these categories and made linked recommendations on minimum healthcare worker requirements (skill mix and staff numbers). This process was embedded in the local context where the need had been identified, and required only modest resources to produce recommendations on the categorisation of newborn inpatient care that the experts agreed could be relevant in other Kenyan settings. Recommendations prioritised the strengthening of existing facilities linked to a need to develop effective referral systems. In particular, expansion of access to the standard category of inpatient neonatal care was recommended. The process and the agreed categorisations could inform discussion in other low-resource settings seeking to address unmet needs for inpatient neonatal care.