RESUMEN
This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community. Themes among these topics include new mechanisms driving the emergence and geographic expansion of diseases, innovative biotechnologies, reassessments of global change, and the development of strategic infrastructure to facilitate global economic priorities.
Asunto(s)
Biodiversidad , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , EcosistemaRESUMEN
We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.
Asunto(s)
Biodiversidad , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Predicción , Especies IntroducidasRESUMEN
This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.
Asunto(s)
Biodiversidad , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/tendencias , Animales , Abejas , China , Política AmbientalRESUMEN
This paper presents the results of our sixth annual horizon scan, which aims to identify phenomena that may have substantial effects on the global environment, but are not widely known or well understood. A group of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The topics include a novel class of insecticide compounds, legalisation of recreational drugs, and the emergence of a new ecosystem associated with ice retreat in the Antarctic.
Asunto(s)
Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/tendencias , Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Ambiente , Contaminación Ambiental , InsecticidasRESUMEN
This paper presents the output of our fifth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity, but have yet to be widely considered. A team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics which were identified via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The 15 topics include a carbon market induced financial crash, rapid geographic expansion of macroalgal cultivation, genetic control of invasive species, probiotic therapy for amphibians, and an emerging snake fungal disease.
Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Enfermedades Transmisibles/transmisión , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Especies Introducidas , Biodiversidad , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/tendenciasRESUMEN
This paper presents the findings of our fourth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity. The 15 issues were identified via an iterative, transferable process by a team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist. The 15 topics include the commercial use of antimicrobial peptides, thorium-fuelled nuclear power, and undersea oil production.
Asunto(s)
Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/tendencias , Animales , Péptidos Catiónicos Antimicrobianos , Acuicultura/tendencias , Organismos Acuáticos , Enfermedades Autoinmunes/etiología , Biodiversidad , Cocos , Arrecifes de Coral , ADN/análisis , Extinción Biológica , Industria Procesadora y de Extracción/tendencias , Agricultura Forestal/tendencias , Humanos , Hipersensibilidad/etiología , Plantas de Energía Nuclear/estadística & datos numéricos , Ácidos Nucleicos/síntesis química , Impresión/tendencias , Energía Solar/estadística & datos numéricos , Torio , Ciclo HidrológicoRESUMEN
Our aim in conducting annual horizon scans is to identify issues that, although currently receiving little attention, may be of increasing importance to the conservation of biological diversity in the future. The 15 issues presented here were identified by a diverse team of 22 experts in horizon scanning, and conservation science and its application. Methods for identifying and refining issues were the same as in two previous annual scans and are widely transferable to other disciplines. The issues highlight potential changes in climate, technology and human behaviour. Examples include warming of the deep sea, increased cultivation of perennial grains, burning of Arctic tundra, and the development of nuclear batteries and hydrokinetic in-stream turbines.
