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1.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 10110, 2024 05 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38698076

RESUMEN

After stroke rehabilitation, patients need to reintegrate back into their daily life, workplace and society. Reintegration involves complex processes depending on age, sex, stroke severity, cognitive, physical, as well as socioeconomic factors that impact long-term outcomes post-stroke. Moreover, post-stroke quality of life can be impacted by social risks of inadequate family, social, economic, housing and other supports needed by the patients. Social risks and barriers to successful reintegration are poorly understood yet critical for informing clinical or social interventions. Therefore, the aim of this work is to predict social risk at rehabilitation discharge using sociodemographic and clinical variables at rehabilitation admission and identify factors that contribute to this risk. A Gradient Boosting modelling methodology based on decision trees was applied to a Catalan 217-patient cohort of mostly young (mean age 52.7), male (66.4%), ischemic stroke survivors. The modelling task was to predict an individual's social risk upon discharge from rehabilitation based on 16 different demographic, diagnostic and social risk variables (family support, social support, economic status, cohabitation and home accessibility at admission). To correct for imbalance in patient sample numbers with high and low-risk levels (prediction target), five different datasets were prepared by varying the data subsampling methodology. For each of the five datasets a prediction model was trained and the analysis involves a comparison across these models. The training and validation results indicated that the models corrected for prediction target imbalance have similarly good performance (AUC 0.831-0.843) and validation (AUC 0.881 - 0.909). Furthermore, predictor variable importance ranked social support and economic status as the most important variables with the greatest contribution to social risk prediction, however, sex and age had a lesser, but still important, contribution. Due to the complex and multifactorial nature of social risk, factors in combination, including social support and economic status, drive social risk for individuals.


Asunto(s)
Accidente Cerebrovascular Isquémico , Rehabilitación de Accidente Cerebrovascular , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Accidente Cerebrovascular Isquémico/rehabilitación , Accidente Cerebrovascular Isquémico/psicología , Anciano , Apoyo Social , Calidad de Vida , Factores de Riesgo , Adulto , Factores Socioeconómicos
2.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37578924

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: There is a worldwide health crisis stemming from the rising incidence of various debilitating chronic diseases, with stroke as a leading contributor. Chronic stroke management encompasses rehabilitation and reintegration, and can require decades of personalized medicine and care. Information technology (IT) tools have the potential to support individuals managing chronic stroke symptoms. OBJECTIVES: This scoping review identifies prevalent topics and concepts in research literature on IT technology for stroke rehabilitation and reintegration, utilizing content analysis, based on topic modelling techniques from natural language processing to identify gaps in this literature. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Our methodological search initially identified over 14,000 publications of the last two decades in the Web of Science and Scopus databases, which we filter, using keywords and a qualitative review, to a core corpus of 1062 documents. RESULTS: We generate a 3-topic, 4-topic and 5-topic model and interpret the resulting topics as four distinct thematics in the literature, which we label as Robotics, Software, Functional and Cognitive. We analyze the prevalence and distinctiveness of each thematic and identify some areas relatively neglected by the field. These are mainly in the Cognitive thematic, especially for systems and devices for sensory loss rehabilitation, tasks of daily living performance and social participation. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that IT-enabled stroke literature has focused on Functional outcomes and Robotic technologies, with lesser emphasis on Cognitive outcomes and combined interventions. We hope this review broadens awareness, usage and mainstream acceptance of novel technologies in rehabilitation and reintegration among clinicians, carers and patients.


Asunto(s)
Tecnología de la Información , Rehabilitación de Accidente Cerebrovascular , Rehabilitación de Accidente Cerebrovascular/métodos , Humanos , Tecnología de la Información/tendencias
3.
Top Stroke Rehabil ; 30(7): 714-726, 2023 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36934334

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Community integration (CI) is often regarded as the foundation of rehabilitation endeavors after stroke; nevertheless, few studies have investigated the relationship between inpatient rehabilitation (clinical and demographic) variables and long-term CI. OBJECTIVES: To identify novel classes of patients having similar temporal patterns in CI and relate them to baseline features. METHODS: Retrospective observational cohort study analyzing (n = 287) adult patients with stroke admitted to rehabilitation between 2003 and 2018, including baseline Functional Independence Measure (FIM) at discharge, follow-ups (m = 1264) of Community Integration Questionnaire (CIQ) between 2006 and 2022. Growth mixture models (GMMs) were fitted to identify CI trajectories, and baseline predictors were identified using multivariate logistic regression (reporting AUC) with 10-fold cross validation. RESULTS: Each patient was assessed at 2.7 (2.2-3.7), 4.4 (3.7-5.6), and 6.2 (5.4-7.4) years after injury, 66% had a fourth assessment at 7.9 (6.8-8.9) years. GMM identified three classes of trajectories.Lowest CI (n=105, 36.6%): The lowest mean total CIQ; highest proportion of dysphagia (47.6%) and aphasia (46.7%), oldest at injury, largest length of stay (LOS), largest time to admission, and lowest FIM.Highest CI (n=63, 21.9%): The highest mean total CIQ, youngest, shortest LOS, highest education (27% university) highest FIM, and Intermediate CI (n=119, 41.5%): Intermediate mean total CIQ and FIM scores. Age at injury OR: 0.89 (0.85-0.93), FIM OR: 1.04 (1.02-1.07), hypertension OR: 2.86 (1.25-6.87), LOS OR: 0.98 (0.97-0.99), and high education OR: 3.05 (1.22-7.65) predicted highest CI, and AUC was 0.84 (0.76-0.93). CONCLUSION: Novel clinical (e.g. hypertension) and demographic (e.g. education) variables characterized and predicted long-term CI trajectories.


Asunto(s)
Hipertensión , Rehabilitación de Accidente Cerebrovascular , Accidente Cerebrovascular , Adulto , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Pacientes Internos , Resultado del Tratamiento , Integración a la Comunidad , Tiempo de Internación , Recuperación de la Función
4.
J Cardiovasc Dev Dis ; 10(2)2023 Jan 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36826538

RESUMEN

While age is an important risk factor, there are some disadvantages to including it in a stroke risk model: age can dominate the risk score and lead to over- or under-predictions in some age groups. There is evidence to suggest that some of these disadvantages are due to the non-proportionality of other risk factors with age, e.g., risk factors contribute differently to stroke risk based on an individual's age. In this paper, we present a framework to test if risk factors are proportional with age. We then apply the framework to a set of risk factors using Framingham heart study data from the NHLBI Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center to determine if we can find evidence of non-proportionality. Using our framework, we find that a number of risk factors (diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, BMI, sex, high blood pressure treatment) may be non-proportional to age. This suggests that testing for the proportionality of risk factors with age should be something that is considered in stroke risk prediction modelling and traditional modelling methods may need to be adjusted to capture this non-proportionality.

5.
Front Neuroinform ; 16: 883762, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36465691

RESUMEN

Predicting an individual's risk of primary stroke is an important tool that can help to lower the burden of stroke for both the individual and society. There are a number of risk models and risk scores in existence but no review or classification designed to help the reader better understand how models differ and the reasoning behind these differences. In this paper we review the existing literature on primary stroke risk prediction models. From our literature review we identify key similarities and differences in the existing models. We find that models can differ in a number of ways, including the event type, the type of analysis, the model type and the time horizon. Based on these similarities and differences we have created a set of questions and a system to help answer those questions that modelers and readers alike can use to help classify and better understand the existing models as well as help to make necessary decisions when creating a new model.

6.
Front Neurol ; 13: 886477, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35911882

RESUMEN

Accurate early predictions of a patient's likely cognitive improvement as a result of a stroke rehabilitation programme can assist clinicians in assembling more effective therapeutic programs. In addition, sufficient levels of explainability, which can justify these predictions, are a crucial requirement, as reported by clinicians. This article presents a machine learning (ML) prediction model targeting cognitive improvement after therapy for stroke surviving patients. The prediction model relies on electronic health records from 201 ischemic stroke surviving patients containing demographic information, cognitive assessments at admission from 24 different standardized neuropsychology tests (e.g., TMT, WAIS-III, Stroop, RAVLT, etc.), and therapy information collected during rehabilitation (72,002 entries collected between March 2007 and September 2019). The study population covered young-adult patients with a mean age of 49.51 years and only 4.47% above 65 years of age at the stroke event (no age filter applied). Twenty different classification algorithms (from Python's Scikit-learn library) are trained and evaluated, varying their hyper-parameters and the number of features received as input. Best-performing models reported Recall scores around 0.7 and F1 scores of 0.6, showing the model's ability to identify patients with poor cognitive improvement. The study includes a detailed feature importance report that helps interpret the model's inner decision workings and exposes the most influential factors in the cognitive improvement prediction. The study showed that certain therapy variables (e.g., the proportion of memory and orientation executed tasks) had an important influence on the final prediction of the cognitive improvement of patients at individual and population levels. This type of evidence can serve clinicians in adjusting the therapeutic settings (e.g., type and load of therapy activities) and selecting the one that maximizes cognitive improvement.

7.
Arthritis Res Ther ; 24(1): 147, 2022 06 18.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35717248

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) and triggers of relapse are poorly understood. Vitamin D (vitD) is an important immunomodulator, potentially responsible for the observed latitudinal differences between granulomatous and non-granulomatous AAV phenotypes. A narrow ultraviolet B spectrum induces vitD synthesis (vitD-UVB) via the skin. We hypothesised that prolonged periods of low ambient UVB (and by extension vitD deficiency) are associated with the granulomatous form of the disease and an increased risk of AAV relapse. METHODS: Patients with AAV recruited to the Irish Rare Kidney Disease (RKD) (n = 439) and UKIVAS (n = 1961) registries were studied. Exposure variables comprised latitude and measures of ambient vitD-UVB, including cumulative weighted UVB dose (CW-D-UVB), a well-validated vitD proxy. An n-of-1 study design was used to examine the relapse risk using only the RKD dataset. Multi-level models and logistic regression were used to examine the effect of predictors on AAV relapse risk, phenotype and serotype. RESULTS: Residential latitude was positively correlated (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.14-1.74, p = 0.002) and average vitD-UVB negatively correlated (0.82, 0.70-0.99, p = 0.04) with relapse risk, with a stronger effect when restricting to winter measurements (0.71, 0.57-0.89, p = 0.002). However, these associations were not restricted to granulomatous phenotypes. We observed no clear relationship between latitude, vitD-UVB or CW-D-UVB and AAV phenotype or serotype. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that low winter ambient UVB and prolonged vitD status contribute to AAV relapse risk across all phenotypes. However, the development of a granulomatous phenotype does not appear to be directly vitD-mediated. Further research is needed to determine whether sufficient vitD status would reduce relapse propensity in AAV.


Asunto(s)
Vasculitis Asociada a Anticuerpos Citoplasmáticos Antineutrófilos , Deficiencia de Vitamina D , Vasculitis Asociada a Anticuerpos Citoplasmáticos Antineutrófilos/epidemiología , Enfermedad Crónica , Humanos , Recurrencia , Rayos Ultravioleta/efectos adversos , Vitamina D
8.
Front Artif Intell ; 5: 813967, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35360661

RESUMEN

This article examines the basis of Natural Language Understanding of transformer based language models, such as BERT. It does this through a case study on idiom token classification. We use idiom token identification as a basis for our analysis because of the variety of information types that have previously been explored in the literature for this task, including: topic, lexical, and syntactic features. This variety of relevant information types means that the task of idiom token identification enables us to explore the forms of linguistic information that a BERT language model captures and encodes in its representations. The core of this article presents three experiments. The first experiment analyzes the effectiveness of BERT sentence embeddings for creating a general idiom token identification model and the results indicate that the BERT sentence embeddings outperform Skip-Thought. In the second and third experiment we use the game theory concept of Shapley Values to rank the usefulness of individual idiomatic expressions for model training and use this ranking to analyse the type of information that the model finds useful. We find that a combination of idiom-intrinsic and topic-based properties contribute to an expression's usefulness in idiom token identification. Overall our results indicate that BERT efficiently encodes a variety of information from topic, through lexical and syntactic information. Based on these results we argue that notwithstanding recent criticisms of language model based semantics, the ability of BERT to efficiently encode a variety of linguistic information types does represent a significant step forward in natural language understanding.

9.
Front Neurol ; 13: 803749, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35250810

RESUMEN

Age is one of the most important risk factors when it comes to stroke risk prediction. However, including age as a risk factor in a stroke prediction model can give rise to a number of difficulties. Age often dominates the risk score, and also not all risk factors contribute proportionally to stroke risk by age. In this study we investigate a number of common stroke risk factors, using Framingham heart study data from the NHLBI Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center to determine if they appear to contribute proportionally by age to a stroke risk score. As we find evidence that there is some non-proportionality by age, we then create a set of logistic regression risk models that each predict the 5 year stroke risk for a different age group. The age group models are shown to be better calibrated when compared to a model for all ages that includes age as a risk factor. This suggests that to get better predictions for stroke risk it may be necessary to consider alternative methods for including age in stroke risk prediction models that account for the non-proportionality of the other risk factors as age changes.

10.
NeuroRehabilitation ; 50(4): 453-465, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35147566

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a major worldwide cause of serious long-term disability. Most previous studies addressing functional independence included only inpatients with limited follow-up. OBJECTIVE: To identify novel classes of patients having similar temporal patterns in motor functional independence and relate them to baseline clinical features. METHODS: Retrospective observational cohort study, data were obtained for n = 428 adult patients with ischemic stroke admitted to rehabilitation (March 2005-March 2020), including baseline clinical features and follow-ups of motor Functional Independence Measure (mFIM) categorized as poor, fair or good. Growth mixture models (GMMs) were fitted to identify classes of patients with similar mFIM trajectories. RESULTS: GMM identified three classes of trajectories (1,664 mFIM assessments):C1 (11.2 %), 97.9% having poor admission mFIM, at 4.93 years 61.1% still poor, with the largest percentage of hypertension, neglect, dysphagia, diabetes and dyslipidemia of all three classes.C2 (23.1%), 99% had poor admission mFIM, 25% poor discharge mFIM, the largest percentage of aphasia and greatest mFIM gain, at 4.93 years only 6.2% still poor.C3 (65.7%) the youngest, lowest NIHSS, 37.7% poor admission mFIM, 73% good discharge mFIM, only 4.6% poor discharge mFIM, 90% good at 4.93 years. CONCLUSIONS: GMM identified novel motor functional classes characterized by baseline features.


Asunto(s)
Accidente Cerebrovascular Isquémico , Rehabilitación de Accidente Cerebrovascular , Accidente Cerebrovascular , Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Estado Funcional , Humanos , Pacientes Internos , Alta del Paciente , Recuperación de la Función , Estudios Retrospectivos , Accidente Cerebrovascular/complicaciones , Resultado del Tratamiento , Adulto Joven
11.
JMIR Med Inform ; 9(11): e28090, 2021 Nov 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34757325

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a worldwide cause of disability; 40% of stroke survivors sustain cognitive impairments, most of them following inpatient rehabilitation at specialized clinical centers. Web-based cognitive rehabilitation tasks are extensively used in clinical settings. The impact of task execution depends on the ratio between the skills of the treated patient and the challenges imposed by the task itself. Thus, treatment personalization requires a trade-off between patients' skills and task difficulties, which is still an open issue. In this study, we propose Elo ratings to support clinicians in tasks assignations and representing patients' skills to optimize rehabilitation outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to stratify patients with ischemic stroke at an early stage of rehabilitation into three levels according to their Elo rating; to show the relationships between the Elo rating levels, task difficulty levels, and rehabilitation outcomes; and to determine if the Elo rating obtained at early stages of rehabilitation is a significant predictor of rehabilitation outcomes. METHODS: The PlayerRatings R library was used to obtain the Elo rating for each patient. Working memory was assessed using the DIGITS subtest of the Barcelona test, and the Rey Auditory Verbal Memory Test (RAVLT) was used to assess verbal memory. Three subtests of RAVLT were used: RAVLT learning (RAVLT075), free-recall memory (RAVLT015), and recognition (RAVLT015R). Memory predictors were identified using forward stepwise selection to add covariates to the models, which were evaluated by assessing discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for logistic regressions and adjusted R2 for linear regressions. RESULTS: Three Elo levels (low, middle, and high) with the same number of patients (n=96) in each Elo group were obtained using the 50 initial task executions (from a total of 38,177) for N=288 adult patients consecutively admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in a clinical setting. The mid-Elo level showed the highest proportions of patients that improved in all four memory items: 56% (54/96) of them improved in DIGITS, 67% (64/96) in RAVLT075, 58% (56/96) in RAVLT015, and 53% (51/96) in RAVLT015R (P<.001). The proportions of patients from the mid-Elo level that performed tasks at difficulty levels 1, 2, and 3 were 32.1% (3997/12,449), 31.% (3997/12,449), and 36.9% (4595/12,449), respectively (P<.001), showing the highest match between skills (represented by Elo level) and task difficulties, considering the set of 38,177 task executions. Elo ratings were significant predictors in three of the four models and quasi-significant in the fourth. When predicting RAVLT075 and DIGITS at discharge, we obtained R2=0.54 and 0.43, respectively; meanwhile, we obtained AUC=0.73 (95% CI 0.64-0.82) and AUC=0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.89) in RAVLT075 and DIGITS improvement predictions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Elo ratings can support clinicians in early rehabilitation stages in identifying cognitive profiles to be used for assigning task difficulty levels.

12.
Neuroimage Clin ; 31: 102694, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34000646

RESUMEN

Stroke is an example of a complex and multi-factorial disease involving multiple organs, timescales, and disease mechanisms. To deal with this complexity, and to realize Precision Medicine of stroke, mathematical models are needed. Such approaches include: 1) machine learning, 2) bioinformatic network models, and 3) mechanistic models. Since these three approaches have complementary strengths and weaknesses, a hybrid modelling approach combining them would be the most beneficial. However, no concrete approach ready to be implemented for a specific disease has been presented to date. In this paper, we both review the strengths and weaknesses of the three approaches, and propose a roadmap for hybrid modelling in the case of stroke care. We focus on two main tasks needed for the clinical setting: a) For stroke risk calculation, we propose a new two-step approach, where non-linear mixed effects models and bioinformatic network models yield biomarkers which are used as input to a machine learning model and b) For simulation of care scenarios, we propose a new four-step approach, which revolves around iterations between simulations of the mechanistic models and imputations of non-modelled or non-measured variables. We illustrate and discuss the different approaches in the context of Precision Medicine for stroke.


Asunto(s)
Accidente Cerebrovascular , Simulación por Computador , Humanos , Aprendizaje Automático , Modelos Teóricos , Medición de Riesgo , Accidente Cerebrovascular/terapia
13.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 499, 2021 03 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33711969

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest effect on an outbreak. METHODS: To test the effects of a school closure policy on the spread of an infectious disease (in this case measles) we run simulations closing schools based on either the proximity of the town to the initial outbreak or the centrality of the town within the network of towns in the simulation. To do this we use a hybrid model that combines an agent-based model with an equation-based model. In our analysis, we use three measures to compare the effects of different intervention strategies: the total number of model runs leading to an outbreak, the total number of infected agents, and the geographic spread of outbreaks. RESULTS: Our results show that closing down the schools in the town where an outbreak begins and the town with the highest in degree centrality provides the largest reduction in percent of runs leading to an outbreak as well as a reduction in the geographic spread of the outbreak compared to only closing down the town where the outbreak begins. Although closing down schools in the town with the closest proximity to the town where the outbreak begins also provides a reduction in the chance of an outbreak, we do not find the reduction to be as large as when the schools in the high in degree centrality town are closed. CONCLUSIONS: Thus we believe that focusing on high in degree centrality towns during an outbreak is important in reducing the overall size of an outbreak.


Asunto(s)
Sarampión , Ciudades , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Humanos , Sarampión/epidemiología , Sarampión/prevención & control , Políticas , Instituciones Académicas
14.
Eur J Phys Rehabil Med ; 57(2): 216-226, 2021 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33263247

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the most relevant cause of acquired persistent disability in adulthood. The relationship between patient's weight during rehabilitation and stroke functional outcome is controversial, previous research reported positive, negative and no effects, with scarce studies specifically addressing working-age patients. AIM: To evaluate the association between Body Mass Index (BMI) and the functional progress of adult (<65 years) patients with stroke admitted to a rehabilitation hospital. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Inpatient rehabilitation center. POPULATION: 178 stroke patients (ischemic or hemorrhagic). METHODS: Point-biserial and Spearman's correlations, multivariate linear regressions and analysis of covariance were used to describe differences in functional outcomes after adjusting for age, sex, severity, dysphagia, depression and BMI category. Functional Independence Measure (FIM), FIM gain, efficiency and effectiveness were assessed. RESULTS: Participants were separated in 3 BMI categories: normal weight (47%), overweight (33%) and obese (20%). There were no significant differences between BMI categories in any functional outcome (total FIM [T-FIM], cognitive [C-FIM]), motor [M-FIM]) at discharge, admission, gain, efficiency or effectiveness. In regression models BMI (as continuous variable) was not significant predictor of T-FIM at discharge after adjusting for age, sex, severity, dysphagia, depression and ataxia (R2=0.4813), significant predictors were T-FIM at admission (ß=0.528) and NIHSS (ß=-0.208). M-FIM efficiency did not significantly differ by BMI subgroups, neither did C-FIM efficiency. Length of stay (LOS) and T-FIM effectiveness were associated for normal (r=0.33) and overweight (r=0.43), but not for obese. LOS and T-FIM efficiency were strongly negatively associated only for obese (r=-0.50). CONCLUSIONS: FIM outcomes were not associated to BMI, nevertheless each BMI category when individually considered (normal weight, overweight or obese) was characterized by different associations involving FIM outcomes and clinical factors. CLINICAL REHABILITATION IMPACT: In subacute post-stroke working-age patients undergoing rehabilitation, BMI was not associated to FIM outcomes (no obesity paradox was reported in this sample). Distinctive significant associations emerged within each BMI category, (supporting their characterization) such as length of stay and T-FIM effectiveness were associated for normal weight and overweight, but not for obese. Length of stay and T-FIM efficiency were strongly negatively associated only for obese.


Asunto(s)
Índice de Masa Corporal , Sobrepeso/complicaciones , Rehabilitación de Accidente Cerebrovascular , Adulto , Estudios de Cohortes , Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Femenino , Humanos , Pacientes Internos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Resultado del Tratamiento
15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32365775

RESUMEN

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town's place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town within a network influences the outbreak. Our main finding is that the commuters coming into a town have a greater effect on whether an outbreak will spread to a town than the commuters going out. The findings on centrality of a town and how it influences an outbreak could potentially be used to help influence future policy and intervention strategies such as school closure policies.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles , Ciudades , Enfermedades Transmisibles/transmisión , Brotes de Enfermedades , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Instituciones Académicas
16.
Front Neurosci ; 13: 97, 2019.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30872986

RESUMEN

Brain vessel status is a promising biomarker for better prevention and treatment in cerebrovascular disease. However, classic rule-based vessel segmentation algorithms need to be hand-crafted and are insufficiently validated. A specialized deep learning method-the U-net-is a promising alternative. Using labeled data from 66 patients with cerebrovascular disease, the U-net framework was optimized and evaluated with three metrics: Dice coefficient, 95% Hausdorff distance (95HD) and average Hausdorff distance (AVD). The model performance was compared with the traditional segmentation method of graph-cuts. Training and reconstruction was performed using 2D patches. A full and a reduced architecture with less parameters were trained. We performed both quantitative and qualitative analyses. The U-net models yielded high performance for both the full and the reduced architecture: A Dice value of ~0.88, a 95HD of ~47 voxels and an AVD of ~0.4 voxels. The visual analysis revealed excellent performance in large vessels and sufficient performance in small vessels. Pathologies like cortical laminar necrosis and a rete mirabile led to limited segmentation performance in few patients. The U-net outperfomed the traditional graph-cuts method (Dice ~0.76, 95HD ~59, AVD ~1.97). Our work highly encourages the development of clinically applicable segmentation tools based on deep learning. Future works should focus on improved segmentation of small vessels and methodologies to deal with specific pathologies.

17.
Entropy (Basel) ; 21(4)2019 Apr 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33267146

RESUMEN

We challenge the upper bound of human-mobility predictability that is widely used to corroborate the accuracy of mobility prediction models. We observe that extensions of recurrent-neural network architectures achieve significantly higher prediction accuracy, surpassing this upper bound. Given this discrepancy, the central objective of our work is to show that the methodology behind the estimation of the predictability upper bound is erroneous and identify the reasons behind this discrepancy. In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying assumptions that have contributed to this bias. In particular, we highlight the consequences of the assumed Markovian nature of human-mobility on deriving this upper bound on maximum mobility predictability. By using several statistical tests on three real-world mobility datasets, we show that human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-distance dependencies, contrasting with the initial Markovian assumption. We show that this assumption of exponential decay of information in mobility trajectories, coupled with the inadequate usage of encoding techniques results in entropy inflation, consequently lowering the upper bound on predictability. We highlight that the current upper bound computation methodology based on Fano's inequality tends to overlook the presence of long-range structural correlations inherent to mobility behaviors and we demonstrate its significance using an alternate encoding scheme. We further show the manifestation of not accounting for these dependencies by probing the mutual information decay in mobility trajectories. We expose the systematic bias that culminates into an inaccurate upper bound and further explain as to why the recurrent-neural architectures, designed to handle long-range structural correlations, surpass this upper limit on human mobility predictability.

18.
Cogn Process ; 12(1): 95-108, 2011 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21140190

RESUMEN

Although data-driven spatial template models provide a practical and cognitively motivated mechanism for characterizing spatial term meaning, the influence of perceptual rather than solely geometric and functional properties has yet to be systematically investigated. In the light of this, in this paper, we investigate the effects of the perceptual phenomenon of object occlusion on the semantics of projective terms. We did this by conducting a study to test whether object occlusion had a noticeable effect on the acceptance values assigned to projective terms with respect to a 2.5-dimensional visual stimulus. Based on the data collected, a regression model was constructed and presented. Subsequent analysis showed that the regression model that included the occlusion factor outperformed an adaptation of Regier & Carlson's well-regarded AVS model for that same spatial configuration.


Asunto(s)
Lenguaje , Orientación , Percepción Espacial , Adulto , Cognición , Simulación por Computador , Femenino , Humanos , Internet , Masculino , Modelos Teóricos , Estimulación Luminosa
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