Emergency admissions' diagnoses and risk of in-hospital death according to the primary ICD-10 chapter assigned at discharge and the National Early Warning Score on admission.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between diagnosis, illness severity, and mortality risk for unselected emergency admissions is poorly defined. AIM: To define primary ICD-10 diagnostic chapters at discharge, admission illness severity by the National Early Warning Score, and in-hospital mortality for all unselected emergency admissions. METHOD: Retrospective, observational, cohort study of 122,259 unselected, adult emergency admissions to Salford Royal Hospital between 2014 and 2022. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 4.3% but most patients had an ICD-10 chapter associated with a lower risk of death. 60% of in-hospital deaths were in four chapters, infections, circulatory and respiratory diseases, or neoplasms. An admission NEWS ≥3 was associated with earlier mortality and an eight-fold increased risk of in-hospital mortality. 45% of all in-hospital deaths occurred in patients with an admission NEWS <3. CONCLUSION: Mortality in emergency hospital admissions is associated with illness severity and four diagnostic chapters. NEWS should not be the only arbiter of hospital admission, as for certain diagnostic chapters the risk of death is high even if vital signs on presentation are normal.

Both acuity and long term prognosis are important Emergency Department metrics: comparison of mobility assessment with the Emergency Severity Index.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the SUHB mobility scale (i.e., stable(S), unstable gait(U), needing help to walk(H), or bedridden(B)) and the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) associations with admission and mortality outcomes. DESIGN: Post-hoc analysis of a prospective observational study including all consenting presenting to the ED over a period of 3 weeks. Odd ratios and AUCs were calculated to assess predictive performance of SUHB and compared with ESI. RESULTS: Out of 2422 patients, 65% presented with a stable gait, 45% with an ESI level 3. With increasing mobility impairment on the SUHB scale, the probability for admission and mortality increased. SUHB had a higher AUC than ESI for 1-year mortality. CONCLUSION: SUHB was a better predictor than ESI of long-term mortality. The scale, which is rapid, requires little additional training, and no extra costs, could be used as a useful supplement to the triage process.

A fast emergency department triage score based on mobility, mental status and oxygen saturation compared with the emergency severity index: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Waiting for triage in overburdened emergency departments (ED) has become an increasing problem, which endangers patients. A fast triage system to rapidly identify low-acuity patients should divert care and resources to more urgent cases. AIM: The objective of this study was to compare the performance of the Kitovu Hospital fast triage (KFT) score with the Emergency Severity Index (ESI), using mortality and hospital admission as proxies for the patients' acuity. DESIGN: This is a prospective observational study of consecutive patients presenting to a Swiss academic ED. METHODS: Patients were prospectively triaged into one of five ESI strata and retrospectively assessed by the KFT score, which awards one point each for altered mental status, impaired mobility and oxygen saturation <94%. RESULTS: The KFT score had a lower discrimination than the ESI for hospital admission, but a higher discrimination for mortality from 24 h to 1 year after ED presentation. A total of 5544 (67%) patients were assigned to the lowest acuity by the KFT score compared with 2374 (28.7%) by the ESI; there was no significant difference in the 24-h mortality of patients who were deemed low acuity by either score. CONCLUSION: Compared to the ESI, the KFT score identifies more than twice as many patients at low risk of early death. Therefore, this score might help to identify patients who could be managed through alternative pathways. This may be particularly helpful in situations of ED crowding and access block.

The prediction of early mortality by the ROX index of oxygenation and respiratory rate in diverse Canadian and Ugandan cohorts of unselected patient: a post-hoc retrospective analysis of 80,558 patient observations.

AIM: To investigate the association between in-hospital mortality and the ROX index of respiratory rate and oxygenation in diverse cohorts of unselected patient at different prediction windows. METHODS: A retrospective post-hoc analysis of data from a major regional referral Canadian hospital and a low-resource hospital in sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Four patient cohorts were examined: Canadian medical, surgical and intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and all patients admitted to an African hospital. In all patients in-hospital mortality rose as ROX declined. Apart from ICU patients, ROX had a high discrimination for death within 72 hours. For non-ICU patients the negative predictive value of death within 72 hours for a ROX value <22 ranged from 0.994 to 1.000 Conclusion: In diverse cohorts of unselected patients, the ROX index has a high discrimination for death within 72 hours. However, the index has little or no prognostic value for patient admitted to ICU.

Developing priorities for quality improvement in acute medicine using a modified Delphi method A consensus process hosted by the Society for Acute Medicine Quality Improvement Committee (SAM-QI).

INTRODUCTION: The SAM Quality Improvement Committee (SAM-QI), set up in 2016, has worked over the last year to determine the priority Acute Medicine QI topics. They have also discussed and put forward proposals to improve QI training for Acute Medicine professionals. METHODS: A modified Delphi process was completed over four rounds to determine priority QI topics. Online meetings were also used to develop proposals for QI training. RESULTS: Same Day Emergency Care (SDEC) was chosen as the priority topic for QI work within Acute Medicine. CONCLUSION: The SAM-QI group settled on SDEC being the priority topic for Acute Medicine QI development. Throughout the Delphi process SAM-QI has also developed proposals for QI training that will help Acute Medicine professionals deliver coordinated meaningful improvements in care.

Can the ECG be used to estimate age-related survival?

BACKGROUND: There are few reports of the relationship between electrocardiogram (ECG) findings and the age-related survival of acutely ill patients. AIM: This study compared the 1-year survival curves of patients attending two Danish emergency departments (EDs) with normal and abnormal ECGs. Patients were divided into age groups from 20 to 90 years of age, and an abnormal ECG was defined as low QRS voltage (i.e. lead I + II <1.4 mV) or QTc interval prolongation >434 ms. METHODS: A retrospective register-based observational study on 35 496 patients attending two Danish EDs, with 100% follow-up for 1 year. RESULTS: ECG abnormality increases linearly with age, and between 30 and 70 years of age. Patients aged 20-29 years with ECG abnormalities are more than four times more likely to die within a year than patients of the same age with a normal ECG. An individual with an abnormal ECG has the same risk of dying within a year as an individual with a normal ECG who is 10 years older. After 70 years of age this tight relationship ends, but for younger individuals with an abnormal ECG the increase in mortality is even higher. CONCLUSION: An ECG may be a simple practical estimate of age-related survival. For a patient under 70 years, an abnormal QRS voltage or a prolonged QTc interval may increase 1-year mortality to that of a patient ∼10 years older.

D-dimer levels for Risk Stratification in Patients with Suspected COVID-19 - A Prospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated D-dimer levels have been observed in COVID-19 and are of prognostic value, but have not been compared to an appropriate control group. METHODS: Observational cohort study including emergency patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19. Logistic regression defined the association of D-dimer levels, COVID-19 positivity, age, and gender with 30-day-mortality. RESULTS: 953 consecutive patients (median age 58, 43% women) presented with suspected COVID-19: 12 (7.4%) patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infection died, compared with 28 (3.5%) patients without SARS-CoV-2-infection. Overall, most (56%) patients had elevated D-dimer levels (≥0.5mg/l). Age (OR 1.07, CI 1.05-1.10), D-dimer levels ≥0.5mg/l (OR 2.44, CI 0.98-7.39), and COVID-19 (OR 2.79, CI 1.28-5.80) were associated with 30-day-mortality. CONCLUSION: D-dimer levels are effective prognosticators in both patient groups.

Thermographic visualization of facial vasoconstriction is associated with 30-day all-cause mortality in medical patients; prospective observational two-site cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Quick and reliable assessment of acute patients is required for accurate triage. The temperature gradient between core and peripheral temperature could possibly instantly provide information on circulatory status. METHODS: Adult medical patients, who did not receive supplementary oxygen, attending two emergency departments, had a thermographic image taken on arrival. The association between 30-day mortality and gradients was tested using logistic regression. RESULTS: 726 patients were studied, median age was 64 years and 14 (1.9%) died within 30 days. There was a significant association between mortality and temperature gradient, comparable to vital signs, age, and clinical intuition. CONCLUSION: Temperature gradient between nose and eye had an acceptable discriminatory power for 30-day all-cause mortality.

Evaluation of systemic vasoconstriction and prognosis using thermography: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: This systematic review investigates whether infrared thermography (IRT) can measure systemic vasoconstriction and addresses the value of IRT in assessing circulatory deficiency and prognoses. METHODS: Design was based on the PRISMA criteria and a systematic search of 6 databases was performed. RESULTS: Of 3,198 records, five articles were included. Three clinical studies were identified; two found significant correlations between IRT obtained temperatures and mortality. An experimental study found an association between peripheral temperature and stroke volume. An animal study found that central-peripheral temperature differences correlated with shock index, mean arterial pressure, and disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the most valid study suggests that central-peripheral temperature differences should be investigated further, both on its own, and integrated with other variables.

Presenting symptoms, diagnoses and in-hospital mortality in a low resource hospital environment.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between symptoms, signs and discharge diagnoses with in-hospital mortality is poorly defined in low-resource settings. AIM: To explore the prevalence of presenting symptoms, signs and discharge diagnoses of medical patients admitted to a low-resource sub-Saharan hospital and their association with in-hospital mortality. METHODS: In this prospective observational study, the presenting symptoms and signs of all medical patients admitted to a low-resource hospital in sub-Saharan Africa, their discharge diagnoses and in-hospital mortality were recorded. RESULTS: Pain, gastro-intestinal complaints and feverishness were the commonest presenting symptoms, but none were associated with in-hospital mortality. Only headache was associated with decreased mortality, and no symptom was associated with increased in-hospital mortality. Malaria was the commonest diagnosis. Vital signs, mobility, mental alertness and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) had the strongest association with in-hospital mortality. Tuberculosis and cancer were the only diagnoses associated with in-hospital mortality after adjustment for these signs. CONCLUSION: Vital signs, mobility, mental alertness and MUAC had the strongest association with in-hospital mortality. All these signs can easily be determined at the bedside at no additional cost and, after adjustment for them by logistic regression the only diagnoses that remain statistically associated with in-hospital mortality are tuberculosis and cancer.

Testing the effects of checklists on team behaviour during emergencies on general wards: An observational study using high-fidelity simulation.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical teams struggle on general wards with acute management of deteriorating patients. We hypothesized that the Crisis Checklist App, a mobile application containing checklists tailored to crisis-management, can improve teamwork and acute care management. METHODS: A before-and-after study was undertaken in high-fidelity simulation centres in the Netherlands, Denmark and United Kingdom. Clinical teams completed three scenarios with a deteriorating patient without checklists followed by three scenarios using the Crisis Checklist App. Teamwork performance as the primary outcome was assessed by the Mayo High Performance Teamwork scale. The secondary outcomes were the time required to complete all predefined safety-critical steps, percentage of omitted safety-critical steps, effects on other non-technical skills, and users' self-assessments. Linear mixed models and a non-parametric survival test were conducted to assess these outcomes. RESULTS: 32 teams completed 188 scenarios. The Mayo High Performance Teamwork scale mean scores improved to 23.4 out of 32 (95% CI: 22.4-24.3) with the Crisis Checklist App compared to 21.4 (20.4-22.3) with local standard of care. The mean difference was 1.97 (1.34-2.6; p < 0.001). Teams that used the checklists were able to complete all safety-critical steps of a scenario in more simulations (40/95 vs 21/93 scenarios) and these steps were completed faster (stratified log-rank test χ2 = 8.0; p = 0.005). The self-assessments of the observers and users showed favourable effects after checklist usage for other non-technical skills including situational awareness, decision making, task management and communication. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a novel mobile crisis checklist application among clinical teams was associated in a simulated general ward setting with improved teamwork performance, and a higher and faster completion rate of predetermined safety-critical steps.

Respiratory rates observed over 15 seconds compared with rates measured using the RRate app. Practice-based evidence from an observational study of acutely ill adult medical patients during their hospital admission.

BACKGROUND: counting respiratory rate over 60 seconds can be impractical in a busy clinical setting. METHODS: 870 respiratory rates of 272 acutely ill medical patients estimated from observations over 15 seconds and those calculated by a computer algorithm were compared. RESULTS: The bias of 15 seconds of observations was 1.85 breaths per minute and 0.11 breaths per minute for the algorithm derived rate, which took 16.2 SD 8.1 seconds. The algorithm assigned 88% of respiratory rates their correct National Early Warning Score points, compared with 80% for rates from 15 seconds of observation. CONCLUSION: The respiratory rates of acutely ill patients are measured nearly as quickly and more reliably by a computer algorithm than by observations over 15 seconds.

Normal gait, albumin and d-dimer levels identify low risk emergency department patients: a prospective observational cohort study with 365-day 100% follow-up.

BACKGROUND: If survival could be reliably predicted many patients could be safely managed outside of hospital in an ambulatory care setting. AIM: Comparison of common laboratory findings, co-morbidities, mobility and vital signs as predictors of mortality of acutely ill emergency department (ED) attendees. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 1334 consenting acutely ill patients attending a Danish ED. RESULTS: 67 (5%) out of 1334 patients died within 100 days. After logistic regression seven predictors of 100 days mortality remained significant: an albumin level ≤34 gm/l, D-dimer level >0.51 mg/l, an Asadollahi score (based on admission laboratory data and age) ≥12, a platelet count <159 X 1000/ml, impaired mobility on presentation, a respiratory rate ≥30 bpm and a Charlson co-morbidity index ≥3. Only 5 of the 442 without any of these variables died within 365 days. Only one of the 517 patients with a stable independent gait and normal d-dimer and albumin levels died within 100 days, none died within 30 days of assessment and 12 died within 365 days. Of the remaining 817 patients 66 (8%) died within 100 days. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that normal gait, albumin and d-dimer levels are the most parsimonious way of identifying low risk ED patients.

Fever increases heart rate and respiratory rate; a prospective observational study of acutely admitted medical patients.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between increase in body temperature, heart rate, and respiratory rate has only been studied in young, healthy subjects. AIM: To show the changes in heart and respiratory rate associated with fever in acutely admitted medical patients. DESIGN: A prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: Vital parameters from 4,493 patients were retrospectively extracted. Linear and multiple variable regression analysis was used to calculate the change in heart and temperature rate for every degree rise in temperature (i.e. ΔHR/°C and ΔRR/°C) in the entire study group and in those with low (<36.1°C), normal (36.1-38°C) and high (>38°C) body temperatures. RESULTS: The ΔHR/°C and ΔRR/°C was 7.2±0.4 beats per minute (bpm) and 1.4 ±0.1 (1.2 to 1.62) breaths per minute (bpm). Adjusting for age, oxygen saturation and mean blood pressure, the results were 6.4±0.4 (5.7 to 7.1) bpm and 1.2±0.1 (1.0 to 1.4) bpm. In low, normal and high body temperature the ΔHR/°C were 2.7±1.9, 6.9±1.9 and 7.4±0.9 bpm, respectively; for ΔRR/°C the values were -0.5±0.5, 1.5±0.5 and 2.3±0.3 bpm, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We only found a modest association between fever and changes in heart rate and respiratory rate.

How well are heart rates measured by pulse oximeters and electronic sphygmomanometers? Practice-based evidence from an observational study of acutely ill medical patients during hospital admission.

BACKGROUND: heart rates generated by pulse oximeters and electronic sphygmomanometers in acutely ill patients may not be the same as those recorded by ECG. METHODS: heart rates recorded by an oximeter and an electronic sphygmomanometer were compared with electrocardiogram (ECG) heart rates measured on acutely ill medical patients. RESULTS: 1010 ECGs were performed on 217 patients while they were in the hospital. The bias between the oximeter and the ECG measured heart rate was -1.37 beats per minute (limits of agreement -22.6 to 19.9 beats per minute), and the bias between the sphygmomanometer and the ECG measured heart rate was -0.14 beats per minute (limits of agreement -22.2 to 21.9 beats per minute). Both devices failed to identify more than half the ECG recordings that awarded 3 NEWS points for heart rate. CONCLUSION: Heart rates of acutely ill patients are not reliably measured by pulse oximeter or electronic sphygmomanometers.

A negative D-dimer identifies patients at low risk of death within 30 days: a prospective observational emergency department cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of a normal D-dimer level (<0.5 mg/l) to identify emergency department (ED) patients at low risk of 30-day all-cause mortality. DESIGN: In this prospective observational study, D-dimer levels of adult medical patients were assessed at arrival to the ED. Data on 30-day survival status were extracted from the Danish Civil Registration System with complete follow-up. SETTING: The Hospital of South West Jutland. PATIENTS: All patients aged 18 years or older who required any blood sample on a clinical indication on arrival to the ED. Participants were required to give written informed consent before enrollment. MAIN RESULTS: The study population of 1 518 patients with median age 66 years of which 49.4% were female. Of the 791 (52.1%) patients with normal D-dimer levels, 3 (0.4%) died within 30 days; one death resulted from an unrelated traumatic accident. Of the 727 (47.9%) patients with abnormal D-dimer levels (≥0.50 mg/l), 32 (4.4%) died within 30 days. Patients with normal D-dimer levels had a significantly lower 30-day mortality compared to patients with abnormal D-dimer levels (odds ratio 0.08, 95% CI 0.02-0.28): of the 35 patients who died within 30 days, 19 (54.3%) had normal or near normal vital signs when first assessed. CONCLUSION: Normal D-dimer levels identified patients at low risk of 30-day mortality. Since most patients who died within 30 days presented with normal or near normal vital signs, D-dimer levels appear to provide additional prognostic information.

Differences in identification of patients' deterioration may hamper the success of clinical escalation protocols.

BACKGROUND: Timely and consistent recognition of a 'clinical crisis', a life threatening condition that demands immediate intervention, is essential to reduce 'failure to rescue' rates in general wards. AIM: To determine how different clinical caregivers define a 'clinical crisis' and how they respond to it. DESIGN: An international survey. METHODS: Clinicians working on general wards, intensive care units or emergency departments in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Denmark were asked to review ten scenarios based on common real-life cases. Then they were asked to grade the urgency and severity of the scenario, their degree of concern, their estimate for the risk for death and indicate their preferred action for escalation. The primary outcome was the scenarios with a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) ≥7 considered to be a 'clinical crisis'. Secondary outcomes included how often a rapid response system (RRS) was activated, and if this was influenced by the participant's professional role or experience. The data from all participants in all three countries was pooled for analysis. RESULTS: A total of 150 clinicians participated in the survey. The highest percentage of clinicians that considered one of the three scenarios with a NEWS ≥7 as a 'clinical crisis' was 52%, while a RRS was activated by <50% of participants. Professional roles and job experience only had a minor influence on the recognition of a 'clinical crisis' and how it should be responded to. CONCLUSION: This international survey indicates that clinicians differ on what they consider to be a 'clinical crisis' and on how it should be managed. Even in cases with a markedly abnormal physiology (i.e. NEWS ≥7) many clinicians do not consider immediate activation of a RRS is required.

Respiratory rates observed over 15 and 30 s compared with rates measured over 60 s: practice-based evidence from an observational study of acutely ill adult medical patients during hospital admission.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory rate is often measured over a period shorter than 1 min and then multiplied to produce a rate per minute. There are few reports of the performance of such estimates compared with rates measured over a full minute. AIM: Compare performance of respiratory rates calculated from 15 and 30 s of observations with measurements over 1 min. DESIGN: A prospective single center observational study. METHODS: The respiratory rates calculated from observations for 15 and 30 s were compared with simultaneous respiratory rates measured for a full minute on acutely ill medical patients during their admission to a resource poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa using a novel respiratory rate tap counting software app. RESULTS: There were 770 respiratory rates recorded on 321 patients while they were in the hospital. The bias (limits of agreement) between the rate derived from 15 s of observations and the full minute was -1.22 breaths per minute (bpm) (-7.16 to 4.72 bpm), and between the rate derived from 30 s and the full minute was -0.46 bpm (-3.89 to 2.97 bpm). Rates observed over 1 min that scored 3 National Early Warning Score points were not identified by half the rates derived from 15 s and a quarter of the rates derived from 30 s. CONCLUSION: Practice-based evidence shows that abnormal respiratory rates are more reliably detected with measurements made over a full minute, and respiratory rate measurement 'short-cuts' often fail to identify sick patients.

Which patients should be monitored, how should they be monitored, and why should they be monitored?

Intensively monitoring severely ill patients is like placing a smoke alarm in a burning building: it makes no sense. Smoke alarms only makes sense if they are placed in buildings before a fire starts, or after a fire has been extinguished in order to make sure it does not start again. Therefore, logic suggests that it is more important to monitor sick patients with normal vital signs in order to detect any deterioration as early as possible, or AFTER a severe illness in order to ensure they do not relapse, and it is safe for them to be discharged from hospital and return home.