Prediction of Relapse After Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Cessation in Crohn's Disease: Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis of 1317 Patients From 14 Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tools for stratification of relapse risk of Crohn's disease (CD) after anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy cessation are needed. We aimed to validate a previously developed prediction model from the diSconTinuation in CrOhn's disease patients in stable Remission on combined therapy with Immunosuppressants (STORI) trial, and to develop an updated model. METHODS: Cohort studies were selected that reported on anti-TNF cessation in 30 or more CD patients in remission. Individual participant data were requested for luminal CD patients and anti-TNF treatment duration of 6 months or longer. The discriminative ability (concordance-statistic [C-statistic]) and calibration (agreement between observed and predicted risks) were explored for the STORI model. Next, an updated prognostic model was constructed, with performance assessment by cross-validation. RESULTS: This individual participant data meta-analysis included 1317 patients from 14 studies in 11 countries. Relapses after anti-TNF cessation occurred in 632 of 1317 patients after a median of 13 months. The pooled 1-year relapse rate was 38%. The STORI prediction model showed poor discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.51). The updated model reached a moderate discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.59), and included clinical symptoms at cessation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4), younger age at diagnosis (HR, 1.5 for A1 (age at diagnosis ≤16 years) vs A2 (age at diagnosis 17 - 40 years); 95% CI, 1.11-1.89), no concomitant immunosuppressants (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.18-172), smoking (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.15-1.67), second line anti-TNF (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69), upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (HR, 1.3 for L4 vs non-L4; 95% CI, 0.96-1.79), adalimumab (HR, 1.22 vs infliximab; 95% CI, 0.99-1.50), age at cessation (HR, 1.2 per 10 years younger; 95% CI, 1-1.33), C-reactive protein (HR, 1.04 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08), and longer disease duration (HR, 1.07 per 5 years; 95% CI, 0.98-1.17). In subanalysis, the discriminative ability of the model improved by adding fecal calprotectin (C-statistic, 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: This updated prediction model showed a reasonable discriminative ability, exceeding the performance of a previously published model. It might be useful to guide clinical decisions on anti-TNF therapy cessation in CD patients after further validation.

Factors associated with depression in people with inflammatory bowel disease: The relationship between active disease and biases in neurocognitive processing.

BACKGROUND: Depression is common among people with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), though the causes remain unclear. We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the role of emotional processing biases in contributing to depression among people with IBD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred and twenty outpatients with IBD were recruited and: (a) completed questionnaires to record: age, sex, social support, socioeconomic status, anxiety and depression (n = 104), (b) underwent assessments of biases in emotional recognition (n = 112), emotional memory and reinforcement learning (c) had recorded from clinical records: type of IBD, duration of IBD, IBD activity and (d) provided blood for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels (n = 99). KEY RESULTS: Sixty-eight participants had Crohn's disease and 49 had ulcerative colitis. Of these, 35 had active disease and 26 had depression. Those with depression were more likely to be female, lack social support, have active disease, be taking corticosteroids but not TNF-alpha inhibitors and exhibit less positive emotional recognition bias. On multivariable regression analysis, depression was associated independently with lack of social support (unstandardized regression coefficient (B) = -1.40, P = 0.02) and increased disease activity (B = 1.29, P = 0.03). Causal steps analysis was consistent with less positive emotional recognition bias partially mediating the effects of disease activity on depression. CONCLUSIONS AND INFERENCES: This is the first study to demonstrate links between disease activity and less positive biases in emotional recognition that could explain higher rates of depression among people with active IBD. Future prospective studies are required to confirm the effects of emotional processing biases in depression and allow stronger causal inferences to be drawn.

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients with hepatitis C and sustained viral response: Role of the treatment regimen.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Previous studies have reported a high frequency of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with advanced liver disease, after receipt of interferon (IFN)-free therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Our objective was to verify and account for this phenomenon using data from the Scottish HCV clinical database. METHODS: We identified HCC-naïve individuals with liver cirrhosis receiving a course of antiviral therapy in Scotland from 1997-2016 resulting in a sustained virologic response. Patients were followed-up from their treatment start date to the earliest of: date of death, date of HCC occurrence, or 31 January 2017. We used Cox regression to compare the risk of HCC occurrence according to treatment regimen after adjusting for relevant co-factors (including: demographic factors; baseline liver disease stage; comorbidities/health behaviours, virology, and previous treatment experience). HCC occurrence was ascertained through both the HCV clinical database and medical chart review. For our main analysis, treatment regimen was defined as IFN-free vs. IFN-containing. RESULTS: A total of 857 patients met the study criteria, of whom 31.7% received an IFN-free regimen. Individuals receiving IFN-free therapy were more likely to be: older; of white ethnicity, Child-Turcotte-Pugh B/C vs. Child-Turcotte-Pugh A; thrombocytopenic; non-genotype 3; and treatment experienced. HCC occurrence was observed in 46 individuals during follow-up. In univariate analysis, IFN-free therapy was associated with a significantly increased risk of HCC (HR: 2.48; p = 0.021). However, after multivariate adjustment for baseline factors, no significant risk attributable to IFN-free therapy persisted (aHR: 1.15, p = 0.744). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the higher incidence of HCC following sustained virologic response with IFN-free therapy relates to baseline risk factors/patient selection, and not the use of IFN-free therapy per se. LAY SUMMARY: We examined the risk of liver cancer in 857 patients with cirrhosis in Scotland who received hepatitis C antiviral therapy and achieved a cure. We compared the risk of first-time liver cancer in patients treated with the newest interferon-free regimens, to patients treated with interferon. After accounting for the different characteristics of these two treatment groups, we found no evidence that interferon-free therapy is associated with a higher risk of liver cancer.

Investigation of Suspected Pulmonary Embolism at Hutt Valley Hospital with CT Pulmonary Angiography: Current Practice and Opportunities for Improvement.

Aims. To study the use of CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA) at Hutt Hospital and investigate the use of pretest probability scoring in the assessment of patients with suspected pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods. We studied patients with suspected PE that underwent CTPA between January and May 2012 and collected data on demographics, use of pretest probability scoring, and use of D Dimer and compared our practice with the British Thoracic Society (BTS) guideline. Results. 105 patients underwent CTPA and 15% of patients had PE. 13% of patients had a Wells score prior to their scan. Wells score calculated by researchers revealed 54%, 36%, and 8% patients had low, medium, and high risk pretest probabilities and 8%, 20%, and 50% of these patients had positive scans. D Dimer was performed in 58% of patients and no patients with a negative D Dimer had a PE. Conclusion. The CTPA positive rate was similar to other contemporary studies but lower than previous New Zealand studies and some international guidelines. Risk stratification of suspected PE using Wells score and D Dimer was underutilised. A number of scans could have been safely avoided by using accepted guidelines reducing resources use and improving patient safety.

Characterisation of osteoprotegerin autoantibodies in coeliac disease.

Autoantibodies neutralising the effect of the bone regulatory cytokine osteoprotegerin (OPG) have been described in a patient with severe osteoporosis and coeliac disease. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and epitope specificity of autoantibodies to OPG in patients with coeliac disease, and correlate their presence with bone mineral density. A direct enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was developed and used to screen patients with coeliac disease for autoantibodies to OPG. Recombinant fragments of OPG were made to evaluate the epitope specificity and affinity of these antibodies. Phenotype information of the patients was obtained by case note review. Raised titres of antibodies to OPG were found in 7/71 (9.8 %) patients with coeliac disease, compared with 1/72 (1.4 %) non-coeliac osteoporosis clinic control patients (p < 0.05). Our results suggest that a polyclonal antibody response to OPG is raised in these patients capable of recognising different epitopes of OPG with varying affinity. The titre of OPG antibodies was associated with lower bone mineral density Z-score of the hip in coeliac patients on univariate (p < 0.05) and multivariate analysis including age, sex height and weight as covariates (p < 0.01). Polyclonal antibodies to OPG are more common in patients with coeliac disease and are independently associated with lower bone mineral density Z-scores of the hip. Further work is required to establish the clinical utility of testing for OPG antibodies.

Nationwide linkage analysis in Scotland-Has mortality following hospital admission for Crohn's disease changed in the early 21st century?

BACKGROUND: National Scottish data were used to compare 3-year mortality in patients hospitalized for Crohn's disease (CD) between 1998-2000 and 2007-2009. METHODS: The linked Scottish Morbidity Records database was used to identify patients admitted with CD during two periods: Period 1 (1998-2000) and Period 2 (2007-2009). 3-year mortality and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were determined and multivariable logistic regression analysis of associated factors was performed. Mortality was determined following four admission types: surgery-elective, surgery-emergency, medical-elective and medical-emergency. 3-year mortality was compared between study periods using age-standardized rates. RESULTS: The number of patients per 100,000 population hospitalized with CD per year was unchanged (15.7 [Period 1]; 14.4 [Period 2]). Overall crude and adjusted 3-year mortality rates were also unchanged (crude mortality 9.0%-9.1%, adjusted mortality odds ratio [OR]=0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-1.17; p=0.36). The adjusted 3-year mortality increased following elective surgery (Period 1: 1/303 [0.3%]; Period 2: 9/261 [3.4%]); OR=13.5 [CI 1.66-109.99]) and decreased following emergency medical admission (Period 1: 99/779 [12.7%]; Period 2:86/802 [10.7%]; OR=0.68 [CI 0.47-0.97]). Directly age-standardized mortality rates were similar (Period 1:338/10,000 person years [CI 282-394]; Period 2:333/10,000 person years [CI 276-390], p=0.2). On multivariable regression, age, deprivation status, comorbidity and the length of hospital stay were associated with mortality in both periods. High 3-year mortality was observed during both periods in patients between 50 and 64years (Period 1: 33/298 [11.1%, SMR=4.8 [CI 3.44-6.63], Period 2: 33/296 [11.1%, SMR=5.9 [4.14-8.22]) and over 65years(Period 1: 94/275 [34.2%, SMR=2.78 [CI 2.42-3.62], Period 2: 78/251 [31.1%, SMR=3.31 [2.64-4.11]). CONCLUSION: Nationwide linkage data demonstrate that overall 3-year mortality after hospitalization for CD is high, especially in patients over 50years, and has not altered between the time periods 1998-2000 and 2007-2009.

The Women's Health Initiative. What is on trial: nutrition and chronic disease? Or misinterpreted science, media havoc and the sound of silence from peers?

The first results of the Women's Health Initiative dietary intervention trial were published in the USA in February. This is a colossal intervention designed to see if diets lower in fat and higher in fruits, vegetables and grains than is usual in high-income countries reduce the incidence of breast cancer, colorectal cancer, heart disease and other chronic diseases, in women aged 50-79 years. As interpreted by US government media releases, the results were unimpressive. As interpreted by a global media blitz, the results indicate that food and nutrition has little or nothing to do with health and disease. But the trial was in key respects not reaching its aims, was methodologically controversial, and in any case has not produced the reported null results. What should the public health nutrition profession do about such messes?