Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

Predicting exposure of wildlife in radionuclide contaminated wetland ecosystems.

Many wetlands support high biodiversity and are protected sites, but some are contaminated with radionuclides from routine or accidental releases from nuclear facilities. This radiation exposure needs to be assessed to demonstrate radiological protection of the environment. Existing biota dose models cover generic terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, not wetlands specifically. This paper, which was produced under IAEA's Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety (EMRAS) II programme, describes an evaluation of how models can be applied to radionuclide contaminated wetlands. Participants used combinations of aquatic and terrestrial model parameters to assess exposure. Results show the importance of occupancy factor and food source (aquatic or terrestrial) included. The influence of soil saturation conditions on external dose rates is also apparent. In general, terrestrial parameters provided acceptable predictions for wetland organisms. However, occasionally predictions varied by three orders of magnitude between assessors. Possible further developments for biota dose models and research needs are identified.

Assessing doses to terrestrial wildlife at a radioactive waste disposal site: inter-comparison of modelling approaches.

Radiological doses to terrestrial wildlife were examined in this model inter-comparison study that emphasised factors causing variability in dose estimation. The study participants used varying modelling approaches and information sources to estimate dose rates and tissue concentrations for a range of biota types exposed to soil contamination at a shallow radionuclide waste burial site in Australia. Results indicated that the dominant factor causing variation in dose rate estimates (up to three orders of magnitude on mean total dose rates) was the soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides that included variation in transfer parameter values as well as transfer calculation methods. Additional variation was associated with other modelling factors including: how participants conceptualised and modelled the exposure configurations (two orders of magnitude); which progeny to include with the parent radionuclide (typically less than one order of magnitude); and dose calculation parameters, including radiation weighting factors and dose conversion coefficients (typically less than one order of magnitude). Probabilistic approaches to model parameterisation were used to encompass and describe variable model parameters and outcomes. The study confirms the need for continued evaluation of the underlying mechanisms governing soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides to improve estimation of dose rates to terrestrial wildlife. The exposure pathways and configurations available in most current codes are limited when considering instances where organisms access subsurface contamination through rooting, burrowing, or using different localised waste areas as part of their habitual routines.

The estimation of absorbed dose rates for non-human biota: an extended intercomparison.

An exercise to compare 10 approaches for the calculation of unweighted whole-body absorbed dose rates was conducted for 74 radionuclides and five of the ICRP's Reference Animals and Plants, or RAPs (duck, frog, flatfish egg, rat and elongated earthworm), selected for this exercise to cover a range of body sizes, dimensions and exposure scenarios. Results were analysed using a non-parametric method requiring no specific hypotheses about the statistical distribution of data. The obtained unweighted absorbed dose rates for internal exposure compare well between the different approaches, with 70% of the results falling within a range of variation of ±20%. The variation is greater for external exposure, although 90% of the estimates are within an order of magnitude of one another. There are some discernible patterns where specific models over- or under-predicted. These are explained based on the methodological differences including number of daughter products included in the calculation of dose rate for a parent nuclide; source-target geometry; databases for discrete energy and yield of radionuclides; rounding errors in integration algorithms; and intrinsic differences in calculation methods. For certain radionuclides, these factors combine to generate systematic variations between approaches. Overall, the technique chosen to interpret the data enabled methodological differences in dosimetry calculations to be quantified and compared, allowing the identification of common issues between different approaches and providing greater assurance on the fundamental dose conversion coefficient approaches used in available models for assessing radiological effects to biota.

Clinical features associated with improvement of fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: We presumed that identification of the factors associated with improvement of fatty livers disease (FLD) would support the therapeutic options for FLD. The goal of this study was to clarify what clinical characteristics are associated with biochemical and sonographic improvements in the non-alcoholic population with fatty livers. METHODS: A total of 615 non-alcoholic men had elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (> or = 40 IU/L) levels and sonographic evidence of a fatty liver, and their clinical characteristics were assessed at the beginning of the study and after 1 year of follow up. The improvement was defined as combination of normal ALT level and negative sonography for hepatic fat after 1 year. Programmed intervention or medications were not applied in this study population. RESULTS: The overall rate of improvement of FLD after a 1-year follow up was 37/615 (6.0%). The improvement was strongly associated with decrement of changes in bodyweight, body mass index, waist circumference, gamma-glutamyltransferase, fasting blood sugar, total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and homeostasis model assessment. Multivariate analysis showed that decrement of changes in bodyweight (odds ratio (OR) = 1.56; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.27-1.92) per 1 kg, body mass index (OR = 2.42; 95%CI: 1.58-3.71) per 1 SD (0.8 kg/m2), waist circumference (OR = 2.13; 95%CI: 1.02-4.54) per 1 cm, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR = 1.64; 95%CI: 1.05-2.56) per 1 SD (22 mg/dL) were all independent predictors for improvement of FLD. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the reduction of bodyweight is a major key point for the improvement of FLD.