Vibrio cholerae O1 experiences mild bottlenecks through the gastrointestinal tract in some but not all cholera patients.

Vibrio cholerae O1 causes the diarrheal disease cholera, and the small intestine is the site of active infection. During cholera, cholera toxin is secreted from V. cholerae and induces a massive fluid influx into the small intestine, which causes vomiting and diarrhea. Typically, V. cholerae genomes are sequenced from bacteria passed in stool, but rarely from vomit, a fluid that may more closely represents the site of active infection. We hypothesized that V. cholerae O1 population bottlenecks along the gastrointestinal tract would result in reduced genetic variation in stool compared to vomit. To test this, we sequenced V. cholerae genomes from 10 cholera patients with paired vomit and stool samples. Genetic diversity was low in both vomit and stool, consistent with a single infecting population rather than coinfection with divergent V. cholerae O1 lineages. The amount of single-nucleotide variation decreased from vomit to stool in four patients, increased in two, and remained unchanged in four. The variation in gene presence/absence decreased between vomit and stool in eight patients and increased in two. Pangenome analysis of assembled short-read sequencing demonstrated that the toxin-coregulated pilus operon more frequently contained deletions in genomes from vomit compared to stool. However, these deletions were not detected by PCR or long-read sequencing, indicating that interpreting gene presence or absence patterns from short-read data alone may be incomplete. Overall, we found that V. cholerae O1 isolated from stool is genetically similar to V. cholerae recovered from the upper intestinal tract. IMPORTANCE: Vibrio cholerae O1, the bacterium that causes cholera, is ingested in contaminated food or water and then colonizes the upper small intestine and is excreted in stool. Shed V. cholerae genomes from stool are usually studied, but V. cholerae isolated from vomit may be more representative of where V. cholerae colonizes in the upper intestinal epithelium. V. cholerae may experience bottlenecks, or large reductions in bacterial population sizes and genetic diversity, as it passes through the gut. Passage through the gut may select for distinct V. cholerae mutants that are adapted for survival and gut colonization. We did not find strong evidence for such adaptive mutations, and instead observed that passage through the gut results in modest reductions in V. cholerae genetic diversity, and only in some patients. These results fill a gap in our understanding of the V. cholerae life cycle, transmission, and evolution.

Phage predation, disease severity, and pathogen genetic diversity in cholera patients.

Despite an increasingly detailed picture of the molecular mechanisms of bacteriophage (phage)-bacterial interactions, we lack an understanding of how these interactions evolve and impact disease within patients. In this work, we report a year-long, nationwide study of diarrheal disease patients in Bangladesh. Among cholera patients, we quantified Vibrio cholerae (prey) and its virulent phages (predators) using metagenomics and quantitative polymerase chain reaction while accounting for antibiotic exposure using quantitative mass spectrometry. Virulent phage (ICP1) and antibiotics suppressed V. cholerae to varying degrees and were inversely associated with severe dehydration depending on resistance mechanisms. In the absence of antiphage defenses, predation was "effective," with a high predator:prey ratio that correlated with increased genetic diversity among the prey. In the presence of antiphage defenses, predation was "ineffective," with a lower predator:prey ratio that correlated with increased genetic diversity among the predators. Phage-bacteria coevolution within patients should therefore be considered in the deployment of phage-based therapies and diagnostics.

Drivers of inappropriate use of antimicrobials in South Asia: A systematic review of qualitative literature.

Antimicrobial resistance is a global public health crisis. Effective antimicrobial stewardship requires an understanding of the factors and context that contribute to inappropriate use of antimicrobials. The goal of this qualitative systematic review was to synthesize themes across levels of the social ecological framework that drive inappropriate use of antimicrobials in South Asia. In September 2023, we conducted a systematic search using the electronic databases PubMed and Embase. Search terms, identified a priori, were related to research methods, topic, and geographic location. We identified 165 articles from the initial search and 8 upon reference review (n = 173); after removing duplicates and preprints (n = 12) and excluding those that did not meet eligibility criteria (n = 115), 46 articles were included in the review. We assessed methodological quality using the qualitative Critical Appraisal Skills Program checklist. The studies represented 6 countries in South Asia, and included data from patients, health care providers, community members, and policy makers. For each manuscript, we wrote a summary memo to extract the factors that impede antimicrobial stewardship. We coded memos using NVivo software; codes were organized by levels of the social ecological framework. Barriers were identified at multiple levels including the patient (self-treatment with antimicrobials; perceived value of antimicrobials), the provider (antimicrobials as a universal therapy; gaps in knowledge and skills; financial or reputational incentives), the clinical setting (lack of resources; poor regulation of the facility), the community (access to formal health care; informal drug vendors; social norms), and policy (absence of a regulatory framework; poor implementation of existing policies). This study is the first to succinctly identify a range of norms, behaviors, and policy contexts driving inappropriate use of antimicrobials in South Asia, emphasizing the importance of working across multiple sectors to design and implement approaches specific to the region.

Diversity of Vibrio cholerae O1 through the human gastrointestinal tract during cholera.

Vibrio cholerae O1 causes the diarrheal disease cholera, and the small intestine is the site of active infection. During cholera, cholera toxin is secreted from V. cholerae and induces a massive fluid influx into the small intestine, which causes vomiting and diarrhea. Typically, V. cholerae genomes are sequenced from bacteria passed in stool, but rarely from vomit, a fluid that may more closely represents the site of active infection. We hypothesized that the V. cholerae O1 population bottlenecks along the gastrointestinal tract would result in reduced genetic variation in stool compared to vomit. To test this, we sequenced V. cholerae genomes from ten cholera patients with paired vomit and stool samples. Genetic diversity was low in both vomit and stool, consistent with a single infecting population rather than co-infection with divergent V. cholerae O1 lineages. The number of single nucleotide variants decreased between vomit and stool in four patients, increased in two, and remained unchanged in four. The number of genes encoded in the V. cholerae genome decreased between vomit and stool in eight patients and increased in two. Pangenome analysis of assembled short-read sequencing demonstrated that the toxin-coregulated pilus operon more frequently contained deletions in genomes from vomit compared to stool. However, these deletions were not detected by PCR or long-read sequencing, indicating that interpreting gene presence or absence patterns from short-read data alone may be incomplete. Overall, we found that V. cholerae O1 isolated from stool is genetically similar to V. cholerae recovered from the upper intestinal tract.

Phage predation, disease severity and pathogen genetic diversity in cholera patients.

Despite an increasingly detailed picture of the molecular mechanisms of phage-bacterial interactions, we lack an understanding of how these interactions evolve and impact disease within patients. Here we report a year-long, nation-wide study of diarrheal disease patients in Bangladesh. Among cholera patients, we quantified Vibrio cholerae (prey) and its virulent phages (predators) using metagenomics and quantitative PCR, while accounting for antibiotic exposure using quantitative mass spectrometry. Virulent phage (ICP1) and antibiotics suppressed V. cholerae to varying degrees and were inversely associated with severe dehydration depending on resistance mechanisms. In the absence of anti-phage defenses, predation was 'effective,' with a high predator:prey ratio that correlated with increased genetic diversity among the prey. In the presence of anti-phage defenses, predation was 'ineffective,' with a lower predator:prey ratio that correlated with increased genetic diversity among the predators. Phage-bacteria coevolution within patients should therefore be considered in the deployment of phage-based therapies and diagnostics.

Drivers of inappropriate use of antimicrobials in South Asia: A systematic review of qualitative literature.

Antimicrobial resistance is a global public health crisis. Effective antimicrobial stewardship requires an understanding of the factors and context that contribute to inappropriate use of antimicrobials. The goal of this qualitative systematic review was to synthesize themes across levels of the social ecological framework that drive inappropriate use of antimicrobials in South Asia. In September 2023, we conducted a systematic search using the electronic databases PubMed and Embase. Search terms, identified a priori, were related to research methods, topic, and geographic location. We identified 165 articles from the initial search and 8 upon reference review (n=173); after removing duplicates and preprints (n=12) and excluding those that did not meet eligibility criteria (n=115), 46 articles were included in the review. We assessed methodological quality using the qualitative Critical Appraisal Skills Program checklist. The studies represented 6 countries in South Asia, and included data from patients, health care providers, community members, and policy makers. For each manuscript, we wrote a summary memo to extract the factors that impede antimicrobial stewardship. We coded memos using NVivo software; codes were organized by levels of the social ecological framework. Barriers were identified at multiple levels including the patient (self-treatment with antimicrobials; perceived value of antimicrobials), the provider (antimicrobials as a universal therapy; gaps in knowledge and skills; financial or reputational incentives), the clinical setting (lack of resources; poor regulation of the facility), the community (access to formal health care; informal drug vendors; social norms), and policy (absence of a regulatory framework; poor implementation of existing policies). The findings highlight the importance of working across multiple sectors to design and implement approaches to antimicrobial stewardship in South Asia.

Predicting Vibrio cholerae infection and symptomatic disease: a systems serology study.

BACKGROUND: Vibriocidal antibodies are currently the best characterised correlate of protection against cholera and are used to gauge immunogenicity in vaccine trials. Although other circulating antibody responses have been associated with a decreased risk of infection, the correlates of protection against cholera have not been comprehensively compared. We aimed to analyse antibody-mediated correlates of protection from both V cholerae infection and cholera-related diarrhoea. METHODS: We conducted a systems serology study that analysed 58 serum antibody biomarkers as correlates of protection against V cholerae O1 infection or diarrhoea. We used serum samples from two cohorts: household contacts of people with confirmed cholera in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and cholera-naive volunteers who were recruited at three centres in the USA, vaccinated with a single dose of CVD 103-HgR live oral cholera vaccine, and then challenged with V cholerae O1 El Tor Inaba strain N16961. We measured antigen-specific immunoglobulin responses against antigens using a customised Luminex assay and used conditional random forest models to examine which baseline biomarkers were most important for classifying individuals who went on to develop infection versus those who remained uninfected or asymptomatic. V cholerae infection was defined as having a positive stool culture result on days 2-7 or day 30 after enrolment of the household's index cholera case and, in the vaccine challenge cohort, was the development of symptomatic diarrhoea (defined as two or more loose stools of ≥200 mL each, or a single loose stool of ≥300 mL over a 48-h period). FINDINGS: In the household contact cohort (261 participants from 180 households), 20 (34%) of the 58 studied biomarkers were associated with protection against V cholerae infection. We identified serum antibody-dependent complement deposition targeting the O1 antigen as the most predictive correlate of protection from infection in the household contacts, whereas vibriocidal antibody titres ranked lower. A five-biomarker model predicted protection from V cholerae infection with a cross-validated area under the curve (cvAUC) of 79% (95% CI 73-85). This model also predicted protection against diarrhoea in unvaccinated volunteers challenged with V cholerae O1 after vaccination (n=67; area under the curve [AUC] 77%, 95% CI 64-90). Although a different five-biomarker model best predicted protection from the development of cholera diarrhoea in the challenged vaccinees (cvAUC 78%, 95% CI 66-91), this model did poorly at predicting protection against infection in the household contacts (AUC 60%, 52-67). INTERPRETATION: Several biomarkers predict protection better than vibriocidal titres. A model based on protection against infection among household contacts was predictive of protection against both infection and diarrhoeal illness in challenged vaccinees, suggesting that models based on observed conditions in a cholera-endemic population might be more likely to identify broadly applicable correlates of protection than models trained on single experimental settings. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health.

Identifying Recent Cholera Infections Using a Multiplex Bead Serological Assay.

Estimates of incidence based on medically attended cholera can be severely biased. Vibrio cholerae O1 leaves a lasting antibody signal and recent advances showed that these can be used to estimate infection incidence rates from cross-sectional serologic data. Current laboratory methods are resource intensive and challenging to standardize across laboratories. A multiplex bead assay (MBA) could efficiently expand the breadth of measured antibody responses and improve seroincidence accuracy. We tested 305 serum samples from confirmed cholera cases (4 to 1083 d postinfection) and uninfected contacts in Bangladesh using an MBA (IgG/IgA/IgM for 7 Vibrio cholerae O1-specific antigens) as well as traditional vibriocidal and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (2 antigens, IgG, and IgA). While postinfection vibriocidal responses were larger than other markers, several MBA-measured antibodies demonstrated robust responses with similar half-lives. Random forest models combining all MBA antibody measures allowed for accurate identification of recent cholera infections (e.g., past 200 days) including a cross-validated area under the curve (cvAUC200) of 92%, with simpler 3 IgG antibody models having similar accuracy. Across infection windows between 45 and 300 days, the accuracy of models trained on MBA measurements was non-inferior to models based on traditional assays. Our results illustrated a scalable cholera serosurveillance tool that can be incorporated into multipathogen serosurveillance platforms. IMPORTANCE Reliable estimates of cholera incidence are challenged by poor clinical surveillance and health-seeking behavior biases. We showed that cross-sectional serologic profiles measured with a high-throughput multiplex bead assay can lead to accurate identification of those infected with pandemic Vibrio cholerae O1, thus allowing for estimates of seroincidence. This provides a new avenue for understanding the epidemiology of cholera, identifying priority areas for cholera prevention/control investments, and tracking progress in the global fight against this ancient disease.

External validation of a prediction model for estimating fat mass in children and adolescents in 19 countries: individual participant data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of a UK based prediction model for estimating fat-free mass (and indirectly fat mass) in children and adolescents in non-UK settings. DESIGN: Individual participant data meta-analysis. SETTING: 19 countries. PARTICIPANTS: 5693 children and adolescents (49.7% boys) aged 4 to 15 years with complete data on the predictors included in the UK based model (weight, height, age, sex, and ethnicity) and on the independently assessed outcome measure (fat-free mass determined by deuterium dilution assessment). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome of the UK based prediction model was natural log transformed fat-free mass (lnFFM). Predictive performance statistics of R2, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and root mean square error were assessed in each of the 19 countries and then pooled through random effects meta-analysis. Calibration plots were also derived for each country, including flexible calibration curves. RESULTS: The model showed good predictive ability in non-UK populations of children and adolescents, providing R2 values of >75% in all countries and >90% in 11 of the 19 countries, and with good calibration (ie, agreement) of observed and predicted values. Root mean square error values (on fat-free mass scale) were <4 kg in 17 of the 19 settings. Pooled values (95% confidence intervals) of R2, calibration slope, and calibration-in-the-large were 88.7% (85.9% to 91.4%), 0.98 (0.97 to 1.00), and 0.01 (-0.02 to 0.04), respectively. Heterogeneity was evident in the R2 and calibration-in-the-large values across settings, but not in the calibration slope. Model performance did not vary markedly between boys and girls, age, ethnicity, and national income groups. To further improve the accuracy of the predictions, the model equation was recalibrated for the intercept in each setting so that country specific equations are available for future use. CONCLUSION: The UK based prediction model, which is based on readily available measures, provides predictions of childhood fat-free mass, and hence fat mass, in a range of non-UK settings that explain a large proportion of the variability in observed fat-free mass, and exhibit good calibration performance, especially after recalibration of the intercept for each population. The model demonstrates good generalisability in both low-middle income and high income populations of healthy children and adolescents aged 4-15 years.

Improving Antibiotic Stewardship for Diarrheal Disease With Probability-Based Electronic Clinical Decision Support: A Randomized Crossover Trial.

Importance: Inappropriate use of antibiotics for diarrheal illness can result in adverse effects and increase in antimicrobial resistance. Objective: To determine whether the diarrheal etiology prediction (DEP) algorithm, which uses patient-specific and location-specific features to estimate the probability that diarrhea etiology is exclusively viral, impacts antibiotic prescriptions in patients with acute diarrhea. Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized crossover study was conducted to evaluate the DEP incorporated into a smartphone-based electronic clinical decision-support (eCDS) tool. The DEP calculated the probability of viral etiology of diarrhea, based on dynamic patient-specific and location-specific features. Physicians were randomized in the first 4-week study period to the intervention arm (eCDS with the DEP) or control arm (eCDS without the DEP), followed by a 1-week washout period before a subsequent 4-week crossover period. The study was conducted at 3 sites in Bangladesh from November 17, 2021, to January 21, 2021, and at 4 sites in Mali from January 6, 2021, to March 5, 2021. Eligible physicians were those who treated children with diarrhea. Eligible patients were children between ages 2 and 59 months with acute diarrhea and household access to a cell phone for follow-up. Interventions: Use of the eCDS with the DEP (intervention arm) vs use of the eCDS without the DEP (control arm). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the proportion of children prescribed an antibiotic. Results: A total of 30 physician participants and 941 patient participants (57.1% male; median [IQR] age, 12 [8-18] months) were enrolled. There was no evidence of a difference in the proportion of children prescribed antibiotics by physicians using the DEP (risk difference [RD], -4.2%; 95% CI, -10.7% to 1.0%). In a post hoc analysis that accounted for the predicted probability of a viral-only etiology, there was a statistically significant difference in risk of antibiotic prescription between the DEP and control arms (RD, -0.056; 95% CI, -0.128 to -0.01). No known adverse effects of the DEP were detected at 10-day postdischarge. Conclusions and Relevance: Use of a tool that provides an estimate of etiological likelihood did not result in a significant change in overall antibiotic prescriptions. Post hoc analysis suggests that a higher predicted probability of viral etiology was linked to reductions in antibiotic use. Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04602676.

Introduction of an Electronic Clinical Decision Support Tool to Inform Prescribing for Pediatric Diarrhea in Bangladesh and Mali: Do Provider Expectations Predict Experiences?

Nonindicated antibiotics for childhood diarrhea is a major contributor to global antimicrobial resistance. Electronic clinical decision support tools (eCDSTs) may reduce unnecessary antibiotics. This study examined how providers' expectations of an eCDST to predict diarrhea etiology compared with their experiences using the tool. Providers were enrolled from public hospitals in Bangladesh (n = 15) and Mali (n = 15), and surveys were completed at baseline and after using the eCDST. Baseline surveys assessed expectations (utility, ease of use, and threat to autonomy), and post surveys assessed experiences in the same domains. Providers' experiences with ease of use exceeded their baseline expectations, and providers reported less experienced threat to autonomy after use, compared with baseline expectations. Providers' expectations of threat to autonomy significantly predicted their experienced threat to autonomy. Findings suggest that an eCDST to inform antimicrobial prescribing for diarrhea is feasible and acceptable, but training should promote local ownership for sustainability.

Mucosal-Associated Invariant T (MAIT) cells are highly activated in duodenal tissue of humans with Vibrio cholerae O1 infection: A preliminary report.

Mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cells are unconventional T lymphocytes with a semi-conserved TCRα, activated by the presentation of vitamin B metabolites by the MHC-I related protein, MR1, and with diverse innate and adaptive effector functions. The role of MAIT cells in acute intestinal infections, especially at the mucosal level, is not well known. Here, we analyzed the presence and phenotype of MAIT cells in duodenal biopsies and paired peripheral blood samples, in patients during and after culture-confirmed Vibrio cholerae O1 infection. Immunohistochemical staining of duodenal biopsies from cholera patients (n = 5, median age 32 years, range 26-44, 1 female) identified MAIT cells in the lamina propria of the crypts, but not the villi. By flow cytometry (n = 10, median age 31 years, range 23-36, 1 female), we showed that duodenal MAIT cells are more activated than peripheral MAIT cells (p < 0.01 across time points), although there were no significant differences between duodenal MAIT cells at day 2 and day 30. We found fecal markers of intestinal permeability and inflammation to be correlated with the loss of duodenal (but not peripheral) MAIT cells, and single-cell sequencing revealed differing T cell receptor usage between the duodenal and peripheral blood MAIT cells. In this preliminary report limited by a small sample size, we show that MAIT cells are present in the lamina propria of the duodenum during V. cholerae infection, and more activated than those in the blood. Future work into the trafficking and tissue-resident function of MAIT cells is warranted.

Genome-wide association studies reveal distinct genetic correlates and increased heritability of antimicrobial resistance in Vibrio cholerae under anaerobic conditions.

The antibiotic formulary is threatened by high rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) among enteropathogens. Enteric bacteria are exposed to anaerobic conditions within the gastrointestinal tract, yet little is known about how oxygen exposure influences AMR. The facultative anaerobe Vibrio cholerae was chosen as a model to address this knowledge gap. We obtained V. cholerae isolates from 66 cholera patients, sequenced their genomes, and grew them under anaerobic and aerobic conditions with and without three clinically relevant antibiotics (ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, doxycycline). For ciprofloxacin and azithromycin, the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) increased under anaerobic conditions compared to aerobic conditions. Using standard resistance breakpoints, the odds of classifying isolates as resistant increased over 10 times for ciprofloxacin and 100 times for azithromycin under anaerobic conditions compared to aerobic conditions. For doxycycline, nearly all isolates were sensitive under both conditions. Using genome-wide association studies, we found associations between genetic elements and AMR phenotypes that varied by oxygen exposure and antibiotic concentrations. These AMR phenotypes were more heritable, and the AMR-associated genetic elements were more often discovered, under anaerobic conditions. These AMR-associated genetic elements are promising targets for future mechanistic research. Our findings provide a rationale to determine whether increased MICs under anaerobic conditions are associated with therapeutic failures and/or microbial escape in cholera patients. If so, there may be a need to determine new AMR breakpoints for anaerobic conditions.

A Combination of Metagenomic and Cultivation Approaches Reveals Hypermutator Phenotypes within Vibrio cholerae-Infected Patients.

Vibrio cholerae can cause a range of symptoms, from severe diarrhea to asymptomatic infection. Previous studies using whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of multiple bacterial isolates per patient showed that V. cholerae can evolve modest genetic diversity during symptomatic infection. To further explore the extent of V. cholerae within-host diversity, we applied culture-based WGS and metagenomics to a cohort of both symptomatic and asymptomatic cholera patients from Bangladesh. While metagenomics allowed us to detect more mutations in symptomatic patients, WGS of cultured isolates was necessary to detect V. cholerae diversity in asymptomatic carriers, likely due to their low V. cholerae load. Using both metagenomics and isolate WGS, we report three lines of evidence that V. cholerae hypermutators evolve within patients. First, we identified nonsynonymous mutations in V. cholerae DNA repair genes in 5 out of 11 patient metagenomes sequenced with sufficient coverage of the V. cholerae genome and in 1 of 3 patients with isolate genomes sequenced. Second, these mutations in DNA repair genes tended to be accompanied by an excess of intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNVs). Third, these iSNVs were enriched in transversion mutations, a known hallmark of hypermutator phenotypes. While hypermutators appeared to generate mostly selectively neutral mutations, nonmutators showed signs of convergent mutation across multiple patients, suggesting V. cholerae adaptation within hosts. Our results highlight the power and limitations of metagenomics combined with isolate sequencing to characterize within-patient diversity in acute V. cholerae infections, while providing evidence for hypermutator phenotypes within cholera patients. IMPORTANCE Pathogen evolution within patients can impact phenotypes such as drug resistance and virulence, potentially affecting clinical outcomes. V. cholerae infection can result in life-threatening diarrheal disease or asymptomatic infection. Here, we describe whole-genome sequencing of V. cholerae isolates and culture-free metagenomic sequencing from stool of symptomatic cholera patients and asymptomatic carriers. Despite the typically short duration of cholera, we found evidence for adaptive mutations in the V. cholerae genome that occur independently and repeatedly within multiple symptomatic patients. We also identified V. cholerae hypermutator phenotypes within several patients, which appear to generate mainly neutral or deleterious mutations. Our work sets the stage for future studies of the role of hypermutators and within-patient evolution in explaining the variation from asymptomatic carriage to symptomatic cholera.

Correction: Plasma and memory B cell responses targeting O-specific polysaccharide (OSP) are associated with protection against Vibrio cholerae O1 infection among household contacts of cholera patients in Bangladesh.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006399.].

Gut Microbiota and Development of Vibrio cholerae-Specific Long-Term Memory B Cells in Adults after Whole-Cell Killed Oral Cholera Vaccine.

Cholera is a diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae that continues to be a major public health concern in populations without access to safe water. IgG- and IgA-secreting memory B cells (MBC) targeting the V. cholerae O-specific polysaccharide (OSP) correlate with protection from infection in persons exposed to V. cholerae and may be a major determinant of long-term protection against cholera. Shanchol, a widely used oral cholera vaccine (OCV), stimulates OSP MBC responses in only some people after vaccination, and the gut microbiota is a possible determinant of variable immune responses observed after OCV. Using 16S rRNA sequencing of feces from the time of vaccination, we compared the gut microbiota among adults with and without MBC responses to OCV. Gut microbial diversity measures were not associated with MBC isotype or OSP-specific responses, but individuals with a higher abundance of Clostridiales and lower abundance of Enterobacterales were more likely to develop an MBC response. We applied protein-normalized fecal supernatants of high and low MBC responders to THP-1-derived human macrophages to investigate the effect of microbial factors at the time of vaccination. Feces from individuals with higher MBC responses induced significantly different IL-1ß and IL-6 levels than individuals with lower responses, indicating that the gut microbiota at the time of vaccination may "prime" the mucosal immune response to vaccine antigens. Our results suggest the gut microbiota could impact immune responses to OCVs, and further study of microbial metabolites as potential vaccine adjuvants is warranted.

A modular approach to integrating multiple data sources into real-time clinical prediction for pediatric diarrhea.

Traditional clinical prediction models focus on parameters of the individual patient. For infectious diseases, sources external to the patient, including characteristics of prior patients and seasonal factors, may improve predictive performance. We describe the development of a predictive model that integrates multiple sources of data in a principled statistical framework using a post-test odds formulation. Our method enables electronic real-time updating and flexibility, such that components can be included or excluded according to data availability. We apply this method to the prediction of etiology of pediatric diarrhea, where 'pre-test' epidemiologic data may be highly informative. Diarrhea has a high burden in low-resource settings, and antibiotics are often over-prescribed. We demonstrate that our integrative method outperforms traditional prediction in accurately identifying cases with a viral etiology, and show that its clinical application, especially when used with an additional diagnostic test, could result in a 61% reduction in inappropriately prescribed antibiotics.

Predicting Vibrio cholerae Infection and Disease Severity Using Metagenomics in a Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Susceptibility to Vibrio cholerae infection is affected by blood group, age, and preexisting immunity, but these factors only partially explain who becomes infected. A recent study used 16S ribosomal RNA amplicon sequencing to quantify the composition of the gut microbiome and identify predictive biomarkers of infection with limited taxonomic resolution. METHODS: To achieve increased resolution of gut microbial factors associated with V. cholerae susceptibility and identify predictors of symptomatic disease, we applied deep shotgun metagenomic sequencing to a cohort of household contacts of patients with cholera. RESULTS: Using machine learning, we resolved species, strains, gene families, and cellular pathways in the microbiome at the time of exposure to V. cholerae to identify markers that predict infection and symptoms. Use of metagenomic features improved the precision and accuracy of prediction relative to 16S sequencing. We also predicted disease severity, although with greater uncertainty than our infection prediction. Species within the genera Prevotella and Bifidobacterium predicted protection from infection, and genes involved in iron metabolism were also correlated with protection. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the power of metagenomics to predict disease outcomes and suggest specific species and genes for experimental testing to investigate mechanisms of microbiome-related protection from cholera.

Electronic decision support and diarrhoeal disease guideline adherence (mHDM): a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Acute diarrhoeal disease management often requires rehydration alone without antibiotics. However, non-indicated antibiotics are frequently ordered and this is an important driver of antimicrobial resistance. The mHealth Diarrhoea Management (mHDM) trial aimed to establish whether electronic decision support improves rehydration and antibiotic guideline adherence in resource-limited settings. METHODS: A cluster randomised controlled trial was done at ten district hospitals in Bangladesh. Inclusion criteria were patients aged 2 months or older with uncomplicated acute diarrhoea. Admission orders were observed without intervention in the pre-intervention period, followed by randomisation to electronic (rehydration calculator) or paper formatted WHO guidelines for the intervention period. The primary outcome was rate of intravenous fluid ordered as a binary variable. Generalised linear mixed-effect models, accounting for hospital clustering, served as the analytical framework; the analysis was intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03154229) and is completed. FINDINGS: From March 11 to Sept 10, 2018, 4975 patients (75·6%) of 6577 screened patients were enrolled. The intervention effect for the primary outcome showed no significant differences in rates of intravenous fluids ordered as a function of decision-support type. Intravenous fluid orders decreased by 0·9 percentage points for paper electronic decision support and 4·2 percentage points for electronic decision support, with a 4·2-point difference between decision-support types in the intervention period (paper 98·7% [95% CI 91·8-99·8] vs electronic 94·5% [72·2-99·1]; pinteraction=0·31). Adverse events such as complications and mortality events were uncommon and could not be statistically estimated. INTERPRETATION: Although intravenous fluid orders did not change, electronic decision support was associated with increases in the volume of intravenous fluid ordered and decreases in antibiotics ordered, which are consistent with WHO guidelines. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.