Quantifying the potential epidemiological impact of a 2-year active case finding for tuberculosis in rural Nepal: a model-based analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Active case finding (ACF) is an important tuberculosis (TB) intervention in high-burden settings. However, empirical evidence garnered from field data has been equivocal about the long-term community-level impact, and more data at a finer geographic scale and data-informed methods to quantify their impact are necessary. METHODS: Using village development committee (VDC)-level data on TB notification and demography between 2016 and 2017 in four southern districts of Nepal, where ACF activities were implemented as a part of the IMPACT-TB study between 2017 and 2019, we developed VDC-level transmission models of TB and ACF. Using these models and ACF yield data collected in the study, we estimated the potential epidemiological impact of IMPACT-TB ACF and compared its efficiency across VDCs in each district. RESULTS: Cases were found in the majority of VDCs during IMPACT-TB ACF, but the number of cases detected within VDCs correlated weakly with historic case notification rates. We projected that this ACF intervention would reduce the TB incidence rate by 14% (12-16) in Chitwan, 8.6% (7.3-9.7) in Dhanusha, 8.3% (7.3-9.2) in Mahottari and 3% (2.5-3.2) in Makwanpur. Over the next 10 years, we projected that this intervention would avert 987 (746-1282), 422 (304-571), 598 (450-782) and 197 (172-240) cases in Chitwan, Dhanusha, Mahottari and Makwanpur, respectively. There was substantial variation in the efficiency of ACF across VDCs: there was up to twofold difference in the number of cases averted in the 10 years per case detected. CONCLUSION: ACF data confirm that TB is widely prevalent, including in VDCs with relatively low reporting rates. Although ACF is a highly efficient component of TB control, its impact can vary substantially at local levels and must be combined with other interventions to alter TB epidemiology significantly.

Comparing Additionality of Tuberculosis Cases Using GeneXpert or Smear-Based Active TB Case-Finding Strategies among Social Contacts of Index Cases in Nepal.

This study compares the yield and additionality of community-based active tuberculosis (TB) active case-finding strategies using either smear microscopy or GeneXpert as the TB diagnostic test. Active case-finding strategies screened social contacts of index cases and high-risk groups in four districts of Nepal in July 2017-2019. Two districts (Chitwan and Dhanusha) applied GeneXpert testing and two districts (Makwanpur and Mahotarri) used smear microscopy. Two control districts implemented standard national TB program activities. Districts implementing GeneXpert testing screened 23,657 people for TB, tested 17,114 and diagnosed 764 TB cases, producing a yield of 4.5%. Districts implementing smear microscopy screened 19,961 people for TB, tested 13,285 and diagnosed 437 cases, producing a yield of 3.3%. The screening numbers required were 31 for GeneXpert and 45.7 for smear districts. The test numbers required were 22.4 and 30.4 for GeneXpert and smear. Using the TB REACH additionality method, social contact tracing for TB through GeneXpert testing contributed to a 20% (3958/3322) increase in district-level TB notifications, smear microscopy 12.4% (3146/2798), and -0.5% (2553/2566) for control districts. Therefore, social contact tracing of TB index cases using GeneXpert testing should be implemented throughout Nepal within the TB FREE initiative to close the notification gap and accelerate progress toward END TB strategy targets.

Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal approaches to tuberculosis patient cost surveys using Nepalese data.

The World Health Organization has supported the development of national tuberculosis (TB) patient cost surveys to quantify the socio-economic impact of TB in high-burden countries. However, methodological differences in the study design (e.g. cross-sectional vs longitudinal) can generate different estimates making the design and impact evaluation of socio-economic protection strategies difficult. The objective of the study was to compare the socio-economic impacts of TB estimated by applying cross-sectional or longitudinal data collections in Nepal. We analysed the data from a longitudinal costing survey (patients interviewed at three time points) conducted between April 2018 and October 2019. We calculated both mean and median costs from patients interviewed during the intensive (cross-sectional 1) and continuation (cross-sectional 2) phases of treatment. We then compared costs, the prevalence of catastrophic costs and the socio-economic impact of TB generated by each approach. There were significant differences in the costs and social impacts calculated by each approach. The median total cost (intensive plus continuation phases) was significantly higher for the longitudinal compared with cross-sectional 2 (US$119.42 vs 91.63, P < 0.001). The prevalence of food insecurity, social exclusion and patients feeling poorer or much poorer were all significantly higher by applying a longitudinal approach. In conclusion, the longitudinal design captured important aspects of costs and socio-economic impacts, which were missed by applying a cross-sectional approach. If a cross-sectional approach is applied due to resource constraints, our data suggest that the start of the continuation phase is the optimal timing for a single interview. Further research to optimize methodologies to report patient-incurred expenditure during TB diagnosis and treatment is needed.

Effects of Climatic Factors on Diarrheal Diseases among Children below 5 Years of Age at National and Subnational Levels in Nepal: An Ecological Study.

Introduction: The incidence of diarrhea, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries such as Nepal, is temperature-sensitive, suggesting it could be associated with climate change. With climate change fueled increases in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation, the incidence of water and food-borne diseases are increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This national-level ecological study was undertaken to provide evidence linking weather and climate with diarrhea incidence in Nepal. Method: We analyzed monthly diarrheal disease count and meteorological data from all districts, spanning 15 eco-development regions of Nepal. Meteorological data and monthly data on diarrheal disease were sourced, respectively, from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Health Management Information System (HMIS) of the Government of Nepal for the period from 2002 to 2014. Time-series log-linear regression models assessed the relationship between maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and diarrhea burden. Predictors with p-values < 0.25 were retained in the fitted models. Results: Overall, diarrheal disease incidence in Nepal significantly increased with 1 °C increase in mean temperature (4.4%; 95% CI: 3.95, 4.85) and 1 cm increase in rainfall (0.28%; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.41). Seasonal variation of diarrheal incidence was prominent at the national level (11.63% rise in diarrheal cases in summer (95% CI: 4.17, 19.61) and 14.5% decrease in spring (95% CI: −18.81, −10.02) compared to winter season). Moreover, the effects of temperature and rainfall were highest in the mountain region compared to other ecological regions of Nepal. Conclusion: Our study provides empirical evidence linking weather factors and diarrheal disease burden in Nepal. This evidence suggests that additional climate change could increase diarrheal disease incidence across the nation. Mountainous regions are more sensitive to climate variability and consequently the burden of diarrheal diseases. These findings can be utilized to allocate necessary resources and envision a weather-based early warning system for the prevention and control of diarrheal diseases in Nepal.

Protocol for the Addressing the Social Determinants and Consequences of Tuberculosis in Nepal (ASCOT) pilot trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's End TB (tuberculosis) Strategy advocates social and economic support for TB-affected households but evidence from low-income settings is scarce. We will evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of a locally-appropriate socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households in Nepal. METHODS: We will conduct a pilot randomised-controlled trial with mixed-methods process evaluation in four TB-endemic, impoverished districts of Nepal: Pyuthan, Chitwan, Mahottari, and Morang. We will recruit 128 people with TB notified to the Nepal National TB Program (NTP) and 40 multisectoral stakeholders including NTP staff, civil-society members, policy-makers, and ASCOT (Addressing the Social Determinants and Consequences of Tuberculosis) team members. People with TB will be randomised 1:1:1:1 to four study arms (n=32 each): control; social support; economic support; and combined social and economic (socioeconomic) support. Social support will be TB education and peer-led mutual-support TB Clubs providing TB education and stigma-reduction counselling. Economic support will be monthly unconditional cash transfers during TB treatment with expectations (not conditions) of meeting NTP goals. At 0, 2, and 6 months following TB treatment initiation, participants will be asked to complete a survey detailing the social determinants and consequences of TB and their feedback on ASCOT. Complementary process evaluation will use focus group discussions (FGD), key informant interviews (KII), and a workshop with multi-sectoral stakeholders to consider the challenges to ASCOT's implementation and scale-up. A sample of ~100 people with TB is recommended to estimate TB-related costs. Information power is estimated to be reached with approximately 25 FGD and 15 KII participants. CONCLUSIONS: The ASCOT pilot trial will both generate robust evidence on a locally-appropriate, socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households in Nepal and inform a large-scale future ASCOT trial, which will evaluate the intervention's impact on catastrophic costs mitigation and TB outcomes. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN ( ISRCTN17025974).

Prevalence and correlates of postabortion long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) use among young women (24 and below) in Nepal: Strategy in the search for improvements.

INTRODUCTION: Postabortion contraceptive use differs across countries, suggesting the need for country-level research to identify barriers and suggest appropriate interventions. This study aimed to identify the prevalence and correlates of postabortion long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) use among women aged 24 or younger in Nepal. METHODS: This is a cohort study using Health Management Information System (HMIS) data where individual case records of women seeking induced abortion or postabortion care were documented using structured HMIS 3.7 records. Analysis was performed on the individual case records of 20,307 women 24 years or younger who received induced abortion or postabortion care services in the three-year period from July 2014 to June 2017 at 433 public and private health facilities. FINDINGS: Overall, LARC uptake during the study period was 11% (IUD: 3% and implant: 8%). The odds of LARC acceptance was higher for young women (24 and below) who belonged to Brahmin/Chhetri (AOR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.02-1.47) and Janajatis (AOR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.01-1.43) as compared to Dalits; young women who had an induced abortion (AOR = 3.75; 95% CI: 1.75-8.06) compared with postabortion care; and those receiving service from public sector health facilities (AOR = 4.00; 95% CI: 2.06-7.75) compared with private sector health facilities. CONCLUSION: The findings from this study indicate the need to focus on barriers to acceptance of LARC among several groups of young women (24 and below) receiving abortion care in Nepal: Dalits, Madhesis and Muslims; nulliparous women; and those receiving services at private sector health facilities.

Developing and deploying a community healthcare worker-driven, digitally- enabled integrated care system for municipalities in rural Nepal.

Integrating care at the home and facility level is a critical yet neglected function of healthcare delivery systems. There are few examples in practice or in the academic literature of affordable, digitally-enabled integrated care approaches embedded within healthcare delivery systems in low- and middle-income countries. Simultaneous advances in affordable digital technologies and community healthcare workers offer an opportunity to address this challenge. We describe the development of an integrated care system involving community healthcare worker networks that utilize a home-to-facility electronic health record platform for rural municipalities in Nepal. Key aspects of our approach of relevance to a global audience include: community healthcare workers continuously engaging with populations through household visits every three months; community healthcare workers using digital tools during the routine course of clinical care; individual and population-level data generated routinely being utilized for program improvement; and being responsive to privacy, security, and human rights concerns. We discuss implementation, lessons learned, challenges, and opportunities for future directions in integrated care delivery systems.

Trends and Inequalities in Use of Maternal Health Care Services in Nepal: Strategy in the Search for Improvements.

BACKGROUND: Nepal has made significant progress against the Millennium Development Goals for maternal and child health over the past two decades. However, disparities in use of maternal health services persist along geographic, economic, and sociocultural lines. METHODS: Trends and inequalities in the use of maternal health services in Nepal between 1994 and 2011 were examined using four Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS), nationally representative cross-sectional surveys conducted by interviewing women who gave birth 3-5 years prior to the survey. Sociodemographic disparities in maternal health service utilization were measured. Rate difference, rate ratios, and concentration index were calculated to measure income inequalities. FINDINGS: The percentage of mothers that received four antenatal care (ANC) consultations increased from 9% to 54%, the institutional delivery rate increased from 6% to 47%, and the cesarean section (C-section) rate increased from 1% in 1994 to 6% in 2011. The ratio of the richest and the poorest quintile mothers for use of four ANC, institutional delivery, and C-section delivery were 5.08 (95% CI: 3.82-6.76), 9.00 (95% CI: 6.55-12.37), and 9.37 (95% CI: 4.22-20.83), respectively. However, inequality is reducing over time; for the use of four ANC services, the concentration index fell from 0.60 (95% CI: 0.56-0.64) in 1994-1996 to 0.31 (95% CI: 0.29-0.33) in 2009-2011. For institutional delivery, the concentration index fell from 0.65 (95% CI: 0.62-0.70) to 0.40 (95% CI: 0.38-0.40) between 1994-1996 and 2009-2011. For C-section deliveries, an increase in concentration index was observed, 0.64 (95% CI: 0.51-0.77); 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64-0.88); 0.77 (95% CI: 0.71-0.84); and 0.66 (95% CI: 0.60-0.72) in the periods 1994-1996, 1999-2001, 2004-2006, and 2009-2011, respectively. All sociodemographic variables were significant predictors of use of maternal health services, out of which maternal education was the most powerful. CONCLUSION: To increase equitable use of maternal health services in Nepal there is a need to strengthen the health system to increase access to and utilization of services among poorer women, those with less education, and those living in remote areas. Beyond the health sector stronger efforts are needed to tackle the root causes of health inequality, reduce poverty, increase female education, eradicate caste/ethnicity based social discrimination, and invest in the development of remote areas.