Spatial patterns and climatic drivers of leaf spring phenology of maple in eastern North America.

The resurgent frequency of extreme weather events and their strongly distinctive spatial patterns lead to a growing interest in phenology as an indicator of tree susceptibility. Using a long-term chronology of observations collected in situ, we predicted and investigated the spatial patterns and environmental drivers of spring leaf phenology across maple stand polygons dominated by Acer saccharum Marsh. and/or Acer rubra L. in eastern North America for 2000-2018. Model' calibration was based on Bayesian ordinal regressions relating the timing of the phenological events' observations to the MODIS vegetation indices EVI, NDVI and LAI. DAYMET data have been extracted to compute temperature and precipitation during spring phenology. Model accuracy increased as the season progressed, with prediction uncertainty spanning from 9 days for bud swelling to 4 days for leaf unfolding. NDVI and LAI were the best predictors for the onset and ending of spring phenology, respectively. Bud swelling occurred at the end of March in the early stands and at the onset of May in the late stands, while leaf unfolding was completed at the beginning of April for the early and in mid-June for the late stands. Early and late stands polarized towards a south-west-north-east gradient. In the south-western regions, which are also the driest, total precipitation and minimum temperature explained respectively 73 % and 25 % of the duration of spring phenology. In the north-eastern regions, precipitation and minimum temperature explained 62 % and 26 % of the duration of spring phenology. Our results suggest high vulnerability to extreme weather events in stands located in the south-west of the species distribution. The increasing incidence of drought in these locations might affect spring phenology, decreasing net primary production in these stands. Warmer nights might expose the buds to late frosts, events that are expected to become more frequent in the coming years.

Minimum spring temperatures at the provenance origin drive leaf phenology in sugar maple populations.

Late frost can cause damage to trees, especially to the developing bud of broadleaf species in spring. Through long-term adaptation, plants adjust leaf phenology to achieve an optimal trade-off between growing season length and frost avoidance. In this study, we aim to assess ecotypic differentiation in leaf development of sugar maple populations planted in a common garden. A total of 272 sugar maple seedlings from 29 Canadian provenances were planted at the northern boundary of the natural range, and the phenological phases of bud and leaf development were monitored during spring 2019. The wide geographical area under evaluation showed a complex seasonal pattern of temperature, with spring warming occurring later in the north and close to the sea. Overall, leaf development lasted between 20 and 36 days, from the end of May to end of June. We observed different timings and rates of leaf development among provenances, demonstrating the occurrence of ecotypes in this species. Minimum April temperatures of the original sites were able to explain such differences, while maximum April temperatures were not significant. Seedlings from sites with colder minimum April temperatures completed leaf development earlier and faster. On average, leaf development diverged by up to 6 days among provenances, with minimum April temperatures ranging from -3 to 3 °C. Our results demonstrated that the avoidance of late spring frost is a driving force of leaf development in sugar maple populations. In the colder sites, the growing season is a limiting factor for tree growth. Thus, when thermal conditions become favorable in spring, an earlier growth reactivation and high metabolic activity ensure a fast leaf emission, which maximizes the period available for photosynthesis and growth. These patterns demonstrate the long-term phenological adaptation of sugar maple populations to local climatic conditions and suggest the importance of frost events for leaf development.