Socio-economic, demographic, and contextual predictors of malnutrition among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria.

Malnutrition has remained a global public health issue, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Researchers have committed to studying malnutrition (especially in children under the age of five) to address the nine malnutrition targets, set by the WHO to be achieved by 2025. This study seeks to evaluate the prevalence, the individual and contextual predictors of malnutrition among children aged 6-59 months across Nigeria and its states. Two separates, independently collected, nationally representative cross-sectional surveys, the National Human Development Report (NHDR 2018) and the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (2018 NDHS) were linked for this study. Spatial map was used to describe the prevalence of malnutrition, a 3-level multivariate multilevel logistic regression models were fitted where children/individuals (at level 1) were nested in communities/clusters (at level 2) and nested in states (at level 3). A weighted sample of 7,770 children 6-59 months were considered in this study. The results showed that an estimated 43.6% of children aged 6-59 months are poorly nourished in Nigeria. The proportions of poorly nourished children were generally highest in the Northern Nigeria. Child's gender, age, birth size, preceding birth order, anaemia status, maternal education, work status, body weight, household wealth status, number of bedrooms were among individual/household predictors of malnutrition. On the community level, being from community with high wealth index, distance to nearest health facilities is no big problem. Regional variations and gender inequality index were the state level predictors of malnutrition among children in Nigeria. This study has shown that two-third of children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria were poorly nourished, an indication of a growing concern of double burden of malnutrition in Nigeria.

Estimating mortality and disability in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of the Disease Study 2019.

Background: Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region. Results: The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region. Conclusion: In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.

Risk Factors Associated with Multimorbidity among Children Aged Under-Five Years in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Globally, the prevalence of multimorbidity (defined as the cooccurrence of two or more diseases in an individual without reference to an index disease) is greater than 33%. Consequently, childhood multimorbidity, a growing public health concern in Low- and Middle-Income-Countries (LMICs), frequently has an impact on children's health. Therefore, the aim of this scoping review was to locate and describe studies that investigate the association between socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors and the prevalence of multimorbidity among children aged under five years in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS/DESIGN: We searched MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for papers written in English, and published between January 1990 and March 2022. The search included papers that focused on children aged under five years with multimorbidity from Sub-Saharan Africa and used classical regression methods in their analysis. RESULTS: A total of 261 articles were identified. Out of the 66 articles selected for full-text reading, 60 were removed for various reasons. Therefore, data from a sample of six articles were finally extracted and reported in this study. The sample size for the 6 studies included ranged from 2343 to 193,065 children under five years of age. There were six distinct disease conditions (Pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, being overweight, stunting, and anaemia) analysed in the included studies. One of the studies had three concurrent diseases, while the other five studies had two current diseases as their multimorbidity outcome of interest. The prevalence of multimorbidity in these six studies ranged from 1.2% to 24.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The relatively few studies found in this research area is an indication of an evidence deficit/knowledge gap yearning to be filled to help policymakers in coming up with integrated multimorbidity care for children in SSA.

Individual, household and area predictors of anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria.

Objectives: This study aims to determine the prevalence of anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in all states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and to quantify the predicted probabilities by individual, household and area factors. Study design: This study is a secondary analysis of data sets from two national representative cross-sectional surveys in Nigeria: the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (2018 NDHS) and the National Human Development Index (2018 NHDR). The state human development index (HDI) and the state multidimensional poverty index (MPI) from the 2018 NHDR were incorporated into the 2018 NDHS. Methods: The study included a weighted sample of 10,222 children aged 6-59 months. Both univariate and bivariate analyses were computed to determine the prevalence and factors associated with anaemia status, respectively. Multiple binary logistic regression analyses with adjusted predicted probabilities (APPs) were performed to quantify the predictors' probabilities. Results: The prevalence of anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria was 68.1% (6962/10,222). Zamfara state had the highest prevalence (84.0% [266/317]), while Kaduna state recorded the lowest (50.0% [283/572]). The APPs of being anaemic decreased from 82.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 80.0-85.8) for children aged 6-18 months to 60.6% (95% CI: 56.8-64.4) for children aged 43-59 months, when other predictors were held constant. The APP for a child of an anaemic mother is 10.2% points higher than the APP for a child whose mother is not anaemic. In addition, the APPs for children decreased as the age group of their mothers increased. A child from a state that is mildly deprived in the MPI has a lower APP (67.2% [95% CI: 62.2-72.2]) compared with a child from highly deprived MPI state (79.0% [95% CI: 73.4-84.5]). Conclusions: Health strategies, including supplementation programmes, should be carried out at both ante-natal and post-natal clinics to reduce the prevalence of anaemia, especially in vulnerable population groups.

Individual and Contextual Factors Associated with Malaria among Children 6-59 Months in Nigeria: A Multilevel Mixed Effect Logistic Model Approach.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Over the last two decades, malaria has remained a major public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries leading to high morbidity and mortality among children. Nigeria is the world most burdened malaria endemic nation, contributing more than a quarter of global malaria cases. This study determined the prevalence of malaria among children at 6-59 months in Nigeria, and the effects of individual and contextual factors. METHODS: This study utilized data from 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) involving a weighted sample size of 10,185 children who were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Given the hierarchical structure of the data set, such that children at Level-1 were nested in communities at Level-2, and nested in states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) at Level-3, multilevel mixed effect logistic regression models were used for the analysis. RESULTS: The proportion of children 6-59 months of age in Nigeria that had malaria fever positive as assessed by RDTs was 35.5% (3418/10,185), (CI: 33.9-37.1). Kebbi State had 77.7%, (CI: 70.2-83.5), which was the highest proportion of 6-59 months who were malaria positive, next in line was Katsina State with 55.5%, (CI: 47.7-63.1). The Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja had the proportion of 29.6%, (CI: 21.6-39.0), malaria positive children of 6-59 months of age. Children between the age of 48 and 59 months were 2.68 times more likely to have malaria fever than children of ages 6-11 months (AOR = 2.68, 95% CI: 2.03-3.54). In addition, children from the rural area (AOR = 2.12, 95% CI: 1.75-2.57), were more likely to suffer from malaria infection compared to children from urban area. CONCLUSION: The study identified some individual and contextual predictors of malaria among children in Nigeria. These factors identified in this study are potential areas that need to be considered for policy designs and implementations toward control and total elimination of malaria-related morbidity and mortality among children in Nigeria.

A Scoping Review of Selected Studies on Predictor Variables Associated with the Malaria Status among Children under Five Years in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: In recent times, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) had been rated by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the most malaria-endemic region in the world. Evidence synthesis of the factors associated with malaria among children aged under-five in SSA is urgently needed. This would help to inform decisions that policymakers and executors in the region need to make for the effective distribution of scarce palliative resources to curb the spread of the illness. This scoping review is aimed at identifying studies that have used multivariate classical regression analysis to determine the predictors associated with malaria among children under five years old in SSA. METHODS/DESIGN: The search terms followed population, intervention, comparator, outcome, timing, setting (PICOTS), and were used in searching through the following databases: PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Scopus, and Measure DHS. The databases were searched for published articles from January 1990 to December 2020. RESULTS: Among the 1154 studies identified, only thirteen (13) studies met the study's inclusion criteria. Narrative syntheses were performed on the selected papers to synchronize the various predictors identified. Factors ranging from child-related (age, birth order and use of a bed net), parental/household-related (maternal age and education status, household wealth index) and community-related variables (community wealth status, free bed net distribution) were some of the identified significant predictors. CONCLUSIONS: It is timely to have a synthesis of predictors that influence the malaria status of children under-five in SSA. The outcome of the review will increase the knowledge of the epidemiology of morbidity that will form the basis for designing efficient and cost-effective distribution of palliatives and control of malaria in SSA.

Burden of Neurological Disorders Across the US From 1990-2017: A Global Burden of Disease Study.

Importance: Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US. Objective: To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Exposures: Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases. Main Outcome and Measure: Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated. Results: The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 [95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.25-3.92] million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 [95% UI, 2.43-2.68] million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 [95% UI, 1.53-3.44] million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (-29.1% [95% UI, -32.4% to -25.8%]); spinal cord injury prevalence (-38.5% [95% UI, -43.1% to -34.0%]); meningitis prevalence (-44.8% [95% UI, -47.3% to -42.3%]), deaths (-64.4% [95% UI, -67.7% to -50.3%]), and DALYs (-66.9% [95% UI, -70.1% to -55.9%]); and encephalitis DALYs (-25.8% [95% UI, -30.7% to -5.8%]). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Conclusions and Relevance: There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.

A Scoping Review of the Risk Factors Associated with Anaemia among Children Under Five Years in Sub-Saharan African Countries.

Background/Purpose: Globally, anaemia is a severe public health condition affecting over 24% of the world's population. Children under five years old and pregnant women are the most vulnerable to this disease. This scoping review aimed to evaluate studies that used classical statistical regression methods on nationally representative health survey data to identify the individual socioeconomic, demographic and contextual risk factors associated with developing anaemia among children under five years of age in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methods/Design: The reporting pattern followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines. The following databases were searched: MEDLINE, EMBASE (OVID platform), Web of Science, PUBMED, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PsycINFO, Scopus, Cochrane library, African Journal of online (AJOL), Google Scholar and Measure DHS. Results: The review identified 20 relevant studies and the risk factors for anaemia were classified as child-related, parental/household-related and community- or area-related factors. The risk factors for anaemia identified included age, birth order, sex, comorbidities (such as fever, diarrhoea and acute respiratory infection), malnutrition or stunting, maternal education, maternal age, mother's anaemia status, household wealth and place of residence. Conclusion: The outcome of this review is of significant value for health policy and planners to enable them to make informed decision that will correct any imbalances in anaemia across socioeconomic, demographic and contextual characteristics, with the view of making efficient distributions of health interventions.

Risk Factors Associated with Malnutrition among Children Under-Five Years in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Scoping Review.

Background/Purpose: Malnutrition is a significant global public health burden with greater concern among children under five years in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To effectively address the problem of malnutrition, especially in resource-scarce communities, knowing the prevalence, causes and risk factors associated with it are essential steps. This scoping review aimed to identify the existing literature that uses classical regression analysis on nationally representative health survey data sets to find the individual socioeconomic, demographic and contextual risk factors associated with malnutrition among children under five years of age in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). Methods: The electronic databases searched include EMBASE (OVID platform), PubMed (MEDLINE), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Scopus, Web of Science (WoS) and Cochrane Library. Only papers written in the English language, and for which the publication date was between 1 January 1990 and 31 July 2020, were included. Results: A total of 229 papers were identified, of which 26 were studies that have been included in the review. The risk factors for malnutrition identified were classified as child-related, parental/household-related and community or area-related. Conclusions: Study-interest bias toward stunting over other anthropometric indicators of malnutrition could be addressed with a holistic research approach to equally address the various dimension of the anthropometric indicators of malnutrition in a population.

Thermal Sensation in Older People with and without Dementia Living in Residential Care: New Assessment Approaches to Thermal Comfort Using Infrared Thermography.

The temperature of the indoor environment is important for health and wellbeing, especially at the extremes of age. The study aim was to understand the relationship between self-reported thermal sensation and extremity skin temperature in care home residents with and without dementia. The Abbreviated Mental Test (AMT) was used to discriminate residents to two categories, those with, and those without, dementia. After residents settled and further explanation of the study given (approximately 15 min), measurements included: tympanic membrane temperature, thermal sensation rating and infrared thermal mapping of non-dominant hand and forearm. Sixty-nine afebrile adults (60-101 years of age) were studied in groups of two to five, in mean ambient temperatures of 21.4-26.6 °C (median 23.6 °C). Significant differences were observed between groups; thermal sensation rating (p = 0.02), tympanic temperature (p = 0.01), fingertip skin temperature (p = 0.01) and temperature gradients; fingertip-wrist p = 0.001 and fingertip-distal forearm, p = 0.001. Residents with dementia were in significantly lower air temperatures (p = 0.001). Although equal numbers of residents per group rated the environment as 'neutral' (comfortable), resident ratings for 'cool/cold' were more frequent amongst those with dementia compared with no dementia. In parallel, extremity (hand) thermograms revealed visual temperature demarcation, variously across fingertip, wrist, and forearm commensurate with peripheral vasoconstriction. Infrared thermography provided a quantitative and qualitative method to measure and observe hand skin temperature across multiple regions of interest alongside thermal sensation self-report. As an imaging modality, infrared thermography has potential as an additional assessment technology with clinical utility to identify vulnerable residents who may be unable to communicate verbally, or reliably, their satisfaction with indoor environmental conditions.

Prevalence and risk factors for child labour and violence against children in Egypt using Bayesian geospatial modelling with multiple imputation.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of child labour, especially across developing nations, is of global concern. The use of children in employment in developing economies constitutes a major threat to the societies, and concerted efforts are made by the relevant stakeholders towards addressing some of the factors and issues responsible. Significant risk factors include socio-demographic and economic factors such as poverty, neglect, lack of adequate care, exposure of children to various grades of violence, parental education status, gender, place of residence, household size, residence type or size, wealth index, parental survivorship and household size. Egypt is the largest country in Africa by population. Although UNCIF 2017 reported that the worst forms of child labour in Egypt are concentrated in domestic work, forced begging and commercial sexual exploitation, the situation has received little attention. There are still very few studies initiated specifically to look at child labour in domestic service in Egypt and those that exist have been limited in the scope of their methodology. Geographical coverage and research for child labour in Egypt is also limited, as are accurate statistics and data. There was, therefore, a strong case for looking again at the domestic child labour phenomenon in Egypt, especially after the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) released the first data about child labour in Egypt in 2014. This study builds on the few findings of earlier work, and broadens coverage by including advanced methods and geographical effects of this problem. OBJECTIVES: This study focuses on identifying socio-demographic, economic and geospatial factors associated with child labour participation. METHODS: We used the 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) from the Ministry of Health and Population in Egypt, with the record of 20,560 never-married children aged 5-17 years engaging in economic activities, in and out of their home. The data focused on demographic and socio-economic characteristics of household members. Multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models were employed to examine the demographical and socio-economic factors for children working less than 16 hrs; between 16 and less 45 hrs; and over 45 hrs weekly. RESULTS: The results showed that at least 31.6% of the children in the age group from 5-10 were working, 68.5% of children aged 11-17 years were engaged in child labour for a wage, and 44.7% of the children in the age group from 5-10 were engaged in hazardous work. From the multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, female children (with male children as reference category) working at least 16 hrs (OR: 1.3; with 95% CI: 1.2-1.5) were more likely to be engaged in child labour than girls working 16 to 45 hrs (OR: 1; 95% CI: 0.3-1.5). Children born to women without formal education, in non-hazardous jobs, irrespective of the hours spent at work, were more likely to be involved in child labour (52.9%, 56.8%, 62.4%) compared to children of mothers with some level of education. Finally, children who have experienced psychological aggression and physical punishment are more likely to be used as child labour than those without such experience across the job types and hours spent. North-eastern Egypt has a higher likelihood of child labour than most other regions, while children who live in the Delta are more engaged in hazardous work. CONCLUSION: This study revealed a significant influence of socio-demographic and economic factors on child labour and violence against children in Egypt. Poverty, neglect, lack of adequate care and exposure of children to various grades of violence are major drivers of child labour across the country. The spatial effect suggests the need to give more attention to some areas that have high rates of child labour, such as the Nile Delta, Upper Egypt, and North-eastern Egypt.

Social and Demographic Factors Associated with Morbidities in Young Children in Egypt: A Bayesian Geo-Additive Semi-Parametric Multinomial Model.

BACKGROUND: Globally, the burden of mortality in children, especially in poor developing countries, is alarming and has precipitated concern and calls for concerted efforts in combating such health problems. Examples of diseases that contribute to this burden of mortality include diarrhoea, cough, fever, and the overlap between these illnesses, causing childhood morbidity and mortality. METHODS: To gain insight into these health issues, we employed the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey Data of Egypt, which recorded details from 10,872 children under five. This data focused on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of household members. We applied a Bayesian multinomial model to assess the area-specific spatial effects and risk factors of co-morbidity of fever, diarrhoea and cough for children under the age of five. RESULTS: The results showed that children under 20 months of age were more likely to have the three diseases (OR: 6.8; 95% CI: 4.6-10.2) than children between 20 and 40 months (OR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.38-3.3). In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, the children of mothers who were over 20 years of age were more likely to have only cough (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.9-1.5) and only fever (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.91-1.51) compared with their counterparts. Spatial results showed that the North-eastern region of Egypt has a higher incidence than most of other regions. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed geographic patterns of Egyptian governorates in the combined prevalence of morbidity among Egyptian children. It is obvious that the Nile Delta, Upper Egypt, and south-eastern Egypt have high rates of diseases and are more affected. Therefore, more attention is needed in these areas.

Changes of mesothelin and osteopontin levels over time in formerly asbestos-exposed power industry workers.

PURPOSE: In patients developing malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) or lung cancer, using effective tumour markers is the quickest way to ensure early diagnosis and improve survival time. The aim of our study was to assess the influence of age and asbestos exposure on the blood levels of the proposed tumour markers, mesothelin and osteopontin, and to determine the change of these markers over time. METHODS: We analysed 3,329 blood samples of 2,262 participants including 1,894 formerly asbestos-exposed power industry workers, a mixed group of 266 participants with an unknown history of asbestos exposure and a group of 102 non-asbestos-exposed controls. Marker concentrations were determined using commercial ELISA kits. RESULTS: While age had a strong influence on marker levels, there was no association between exposure duration or benign asbestos-related disease and marker levels. In order to assess the maximum increase that can be expected to occur in asbestos-exposed workers those with an at least 10 % increase were selected (n = 290 for mesothelin and n = 81 for osteopontin). The 95th percentile of the annual change was 0.402 nmol/l for mesothelin and 334 ng/ml for osteopontin. In two patients with MPM and five with lung cancer, we could obtain more than one marker result before the diagnosis was made. Both MPM patients showed a steep increase of mesothelin levels. CONCLUSIONS: Fixed cut-off values for deciding between intensive clinical work-up and continued surveillance appeared inadequate for the evaluated markers. While general conclusions cannot be drawn, we can say that the results of the two patients would be consistent with a mesothelin increase between 6 and 18 months before clinical symptoms developed.

Retrospective exposure assessment to airborne asbestos among power industry workers.

BACKGROUND: A method of individually assessing former exposure to asbestos fibres is a precondition of risk-differentiated health surveillance. The main aims of our study were to assess former levels of airborne asbestos exposure in the power industry in Germany and to propose a basic strategy for health surveillance and the early detection of asbestos related diseases. METHODS: Between March 2002 and the end of 2006, we conducted a retrospective questionnaire based survey of occupational tasks and exposures with airborne asbestos fibres in a cohort of 8632 formerly asbestos exposed power industry workers. The data on exposure and occupation were entered into a specially designed computer programme, based on ambient monitoring of airborne asbestos fibre concentrations. The cumulative asbestos exposure was expressed as the product of the eight-hour time weighted average and the total duration of exposure in fibre years (fibres/cubic centimetre-years). RESULTS: Data of 7775 (90% of the total) participants working in installations for power generation, power distribution or gas supply could be evaluated. The power generation group (n = 5284) had a mean age of 56 years, were exposed for 20 years and had an average cumulative asbestos exposure of 42 fibre years. The occupational group of "metalworkers" (n = 1600) had the highest mean value of 79 fibre years. The corresponding results for the power distribution group (n = 2491) were a mean age of 45 years, a mean exposure duration of 12 years and an average cumulative asbestos exposure of only 2.5 fibre years. The gas supply workers (n = 512) had a mean age of 54 years and a mean duration of exposure of 15 years. CONCLUSIONS: While the surveyed cohort as a whole was heavily exposed to asbestos dust, the power distribution group had a mean cumulative exposure of only 6% of that found in the power generation group. Based on the presented data, risk-differentiated disease surveillance focusing on metalworkers and electricians from the power generating industry seems justified. That combined with a sensitive examination technique would allow detecting asbestos related diseases early and efficiently.

Childhood malnutrition in Egypt using geoadditive Gaussian and latent variable models.

Major progress has been made over the last 30 years in reducing the prevalence of malnutrition amongst children less than 5 years of age in developing countries. However, approximately 27% of children under the age of 5 in these countries are still malnourished. This work focuses on the childhood malnutrition in one of the biggest developing countries, Egypt. This study examined the association between bio-demographic and socioeconomic determinants and the malnutrition problem in children less than 5 years of age using the 2003 Demographic and Health survey data for Egypt. In the first step, we use separate geoadditive Gaussian models with the continuous response variables stunting (height-for-age), underweight (weight-for-age), and wasting (weight-for-height) as indicators of nutritional status in our case study. In a second step, based on the results of the first step, we apply the geoadditive Gaussian latent variable model for continuous indicators in which the 3 measurements of the malnutrition status of children are assumed as indicators for the latent variable "nutritional status".

Analysis of childhood morbidity with geoadditive probit and latent variable model: a case study for Egypt.

This work applies geoadditive latent variable models to analyze the impact of risk factors and the spatial effects on the latent, unobservable variable "health status" or "frailty" of a child less than 5 years of age using the 2003 Demographic and Health survey (DHS) data from Egypt. Childhood diseases are a major cause of death of children in the developing world. In developing countries a quarter of infant and childhood mortality is related to childhood disease, particularly to diarrhea. Our case study is based on the 2003 Demographic and Health Survey for Egypt (EDHS). It provided data on the prevalence and treatment of common childhood disease such as diarrhea, cough, and fever, which are seen as symptoms or indicators of children's health status, causing increased morbidity and mortality. These causes are often associated with a number of risk factors, including inadequate antenatal care, lack of or inadequate vaccination, and environmental factors that affected the health of the child in early years, various bio-demographic and socioeconomic variables. In this work, we investigate the impact of such factors on childhood disease with flexible geoadditive models. These models allow us to analyze usual linear effects of covariates, nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, and small-area regional effects within a unified, semi-parametric Bayesian framework for modeling and inference. As a first step, we use separate geoadditive probit models the binary target variables for diarrhea, cough, and fever using covariate information from the EDHS. Based on these results, we then apply recently developed geoadditive latent variable models where the three observable disease variables are taken as indicators for the latent individual variable "health status" or "frailty" of a child. This modeling approach allows us to study the common influence of risk factors on individual frailties of children, thereby automatically accounting for association between diseases as indicators for health status.