Physical Activity and Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Men and Women.

Importance: Prior cross-sectional studies have suggested that very high levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with a higher prevalence of coronary artery calcium (CAC). However, less is known regarding the association between high-volume PA and progression of CAC over time. Objective: To explore the association between PA (measured at baseline and during follow-up) and the progression of CAC over time. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included data from 8771 apparently healthy men and women 40 years and older who had multiple preventive medicine visits at the Cooper Clinic (Dallas, Texas), with a mean (SD) follow-up time of 7.8 (4.7) years between the first and last clinic visit. Participants with reported PA and CAC measurements at each visit during 1998 to 2019 were included in the study. Data were analyzed from March 2023 to February 2024. Exposures: PA reported at baseline and follow-up, examined continuously per 500 metabolic equivalent of task minutes per week (MET-min/wk) and categorically: less than 1500, 1500 to 2999, 3000 or more MET-min/wk. Main Outcomes and Measures: Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the rate of mean CAC progression between visits, with potential modification by PA volume, calculated as the mean of PA at baseline and follow-up. In addition, proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for baseline PA as a predictor of CAC progression to 100 or more Agatston units (AU). Results: Among 8771 participants, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 50.2 (7.3) years for men and 51.1 (7.3) years for women. The rate of mean CAC progression per year from baseline was 28.5% in men and 32.1% in women, independent of mean PA during the same time period. That is, the difference in the rate of CAC progression per year was 0.0% per 500 MET-min/wk for men and women (men: 95% CI, -0.1% to 0.1%; women: 95% CI, -0.4% to 0.5%). Moreover, baseline PA was not associated with CAC progression to a clinically meaningful threshold of 100 AU or more over the follow-up period. The hazard ratio for a baseline PA value of 3000 or more MET-min/wk vs less than 1500 MET-min/wk to cross this threshold was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.08) in men and 1.16 (95% CI, 0.57 to 2.35) in women. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that PA volume was not associated with progression of CAC in a large cohort of healthy men and women who were initially free of overt cardiovascular disease.

Measurement and Application of Incidentally Detected Coronary Calcium: JACC Review Topic of the Week.

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is a powerful tool for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk stratification. The nongated, noncontrast chest computed tomography scan (NCCT) has emerged as a source of CAC characterization with tremendous potential due to the high volume of NCCT scans. Application of incidental CAC characterization from NCCT has raised questions around score accuracy, standardization of methodology including the possibility of deep learning to automate the process, and the risk stratification potential of an NCCT-derived score. In this review, the authors aim to summarize the role of NCCT-derived CAC in preventive cardiovascular health today as well as explore future avenues for eventual clinical applicability in specific patient populations and broader health systems.

US population qualifying for aspirin use for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Objective: Aspirin has been used for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) for decades, but this indication has become controversial with recent trial data. The 2022 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) provided a recommendation to consider aspirin use for primary prevention in adults 40-59 years with a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10 % and not at increased risk of bleeding, yet population estimates for the impact of this recommendation are unknown. The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence and demographics of the US population who meet eligibility criteria for aspirin under the new 2022 USPSTF guidelines. Methods: This is a serial cross-sectional study using data from the 2011-March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. Individuals aged 40-59 years without a self-reported history of ASCVD were included. 10-year estimated ASCVD risk ≥10 % as calculated by the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and increased bleeding risk determined using variables adapted from USPSTF guidelines were further applied as inclusion and exclusion criteria, respectively. The weighted frequencies of US adults aged 40-59 years qualifying for primary prevention aspirin, subgrouped by gender, age, and race/ethnicity, were calculated. Results: Among 72,840,734 US individuals aged 40-59 years, 7.2 million (10 %) are eligible for consideration of primary prevention aspirin by PCE criteria. Of these, approximately 30 % would be potentially excluded based on increased bleeding risks, resulting in a net eligible cohort of 5 million. This represents 7 % of US adults aged 40-59 years and only 2.6 % of adults ≥18 years. Men, age 50-59 years, and Black race have higher proportions meeting aspirin use eligibility. Conclusions: The overall prevalence of US individuals who qualify for aspirin for primary prevention under the 2022 USPSTF guidelines is modest, with larger proportional eligibility among men, older age, and Black individuals.

Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

Relationship of fat mass ratio - a biomarker for lipodystrophy - with cardiometabolic traits.

Familial partial lipodystrophy (FPLD) is a heterogenous group of syndromes associated with a high prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases. Prior work has proposed DEXA-derived fat mass ratio (FMR) - defined as trunk fat percentage (trunk fat %) divided by leg fat percentage (leg fat %) - as a biomarker of FPLD, but this metric has not previously been characterized in large cohort studies. We set out to (1) understand the cardiometabolic burden of individuals with high FMR in up to 40,796 participants in the UK Biobank and 9,408 participants in the Fenland study, (2) characterize the common variant genetic underpinnings of FMR, and (3) build and test a polygenic predictor for FMR. Participants with high FMR were at higher risk for type 2 diabetes (OR = 2.30, p = 3.5 × 10-41) and MASLD/MASH (OR = 2.55, p = 4.9 × 10-7) in UK Biobank, and had higher fasting insulin (difference = +19.8 pmol/L, p = 5.7 × 10-36) and fasting triglycerides (difference = +36.1 mg/dL, p = 2.5 × 10-28) in the Fenland Study. Across FMR and its component traits, 61 conditionally independent variant-trait pairs were discovered, including 13 newly-identified pairs. A polygenic score for FMR was associated with increased risk of cardiometabolic diseases. This work establishes the cardiometabolic significance of high FMR - a biomarker for FPLD - in two large cohort studies and may prove useful in increasing diagnosis rates of patients with metabolically unhealthy fat distribution to enable treatment or a preventive therapy.

Novel plasma biomarkers of coronary artery calcium incidence or progression: Insights from the prospective multi-ethnic Dallas Heart Study cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Identifying the association of novel plasma biomarkers with coronary artery calcium (CAC) incidence or progression may provide insights into the pathophysiology of atherogenesis and plaque formation. METHODS: Participants of the Dallas Heart Study (DHS), a multi-ethnic cohort of ambulatory individuals at low-intermediate risk for future atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), who had their blood tested for 31 biomarkers reflecting multiple pathophysiological pathways, underwent 2 serial non-contrast computed tomography assessments for CAC a median ∼7 years apart. The collected biomarkers were explored for association with CAC incidence or progression using univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1424 participants were included; mean age 43 years, 39 % male, and nearly half African-American. Over a 7-year interval between the two CAC measurements, 340 participants (23.9 %) had CAC incidence or progression, 105 (7.4 %) with incident CAC, and 309 (21.7 %) with CAC progression. Although several plasma biomarkers were associated with CAC incidence or progression in a univariate model, only soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), related to atherosclerosis by the inflammatory pathway, remained independently associated in a multivariate model adjusted for traditional risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Further studies are needed to characterize the role of sICAM-1 in CAC evolvement to establish whether it has a pivotal mechanistic contribution or is rather an innocent bystander. Alternate measures of coronary atherosclerosis may be needed to elucidate contributors to atherosclerosis incidence or progression.

Familial Hypercholesterolemia Variant and Cardiovascular Risk in Individuals With Elevated Cholesterol.

Importance: Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a genetic disorder that often results in severely high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high risk of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the impact of FH variants on CHD risk among individuals with moderately elevated LDL-C is not well quantified. Objective: To assess CHD risk associated with FH variants among individuals with moderately (130-189 mg/dL) and severely (≥190 mg/dL) elevated LDL-C and to quantify excess CHD deaths attributable to FH variants in US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 21 426 individuals without preexisting CHD from 6 US cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort, Jackson Heart Study, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were included, 63 of whom had an FH variant. Data were collected from 1971 to 2018, and the median (IQR) follow-up was 18 (13-28) years. Data were analyzed from March to May 2023. Exposures: LDL-C, cumulative past LDL-C, FH variant status. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cox proportional hazards models estimated associations between FH variants and incident CHD. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model projected excess CHD deaths associated with FH variants in US adults. Results: Of the 21 426 individuals without preexisting CHD (mean [SD] age 52.1 [15.5] years; 12 041 [56.2%] female), an FH variant was found in 22 individuals with moderately elevated LDL-C (0.3%) and in 33 individuals with severely elevated LDL-C (2.5%). The adjusted hazard ratios for incident CHD comparing those with and without FH variants were 2.9 (95% CI, 1.4-6.0) and 2.6 (95% CI, 1.4-4.9) among individuals with moderately and severely elevated LDL-C, respectively. The association between FH variants and CHD was slightly attenuated when further adjusting for baseline LDL-C level, whereas the association was no longer statistically significant after adjusting for cumulative past LDL-C exposure. Among US adults 20 years and older with no history of CHD and LDL-C 130 mg/dL or higher, more than 417 000 carry an FH variant and were projected to experience more than 12 000 excess CHD deaths in those with moderately elevated LDL-C and 15 000 in those with severely elevated LDL-C compared with individuals without an FH variant. Conclusions and Relevance: In this pooled cohort study, the presence of FH variants was associated with a 2-fold higher CHD risk, even when LDL-C was only moderately elevated. The increased CHD risk appeared to be largely explained by the higher cumulative LDL-C exposure in individuals with an FH variant compared to those without. Further research is needed to assess the value of adding genetic testing to traditional phenotypic FH screening.

Addressing Structural Racism Through Public Policy Advocacy: A Policy Statement From the American Heart Association.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the American Heart Association created a new 2024 Impact Goal with health equity at its core, in recognition of the increasing health disparities in our country and the overwhelming evidence of the damaging effect of structural racism on cardiovascular and stroke health. Concurrent with the announcement of the new Impact Goal was the release of an American Heart Association presidential advisory on structural racism, recognizing racism as a fundamental driver of health disparities and directing the American Heart Association to advance antiracist strategies regarding science, business operations, leadership, quality improvement, and advocacy. This policy statement builds on the call to action put forth in our presidential advisory, discussing specific opportunities to leverage public policy in promoting overall well-being and rectifying those long-standing structural barriers that impede the progress that we need and seek for the health of all communities. Although this policy statement discusses difficult aspects of our past, it is meant to provide a forward-looking blueprint that can be embraced by a broad spectrum of stakeholders who share the association's commitment to addressing structural racism and realizing true health equity.

Novel Size-Based High-Density Lipoprotein Subspecies and Incident Vascular Events.

Background High-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle concentration likely outperforms HDL cholesterol in predicting atherosclerotic cardiovascular events. Whether size-based HDL subspecies explain the atheroprotective associations of HDL particle concentration remains unknown. Our objective was to assess whether levels of specific size-based HDL subspecies associate with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in a multiethnic pooled cohort and improve risk prediction beyond traditional atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factors. Methods and Results Seven HDL size-based subspecies were quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance (LP4 algorithm; H1=smallest; H7=largest) among participants without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease), and DHS (Dallas Heart Study) cohorts (n=15 371 people). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between HDL subspecies and incident myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke at follow-up (average 8-10 years) adjusting for HDL cholesterol and risk factors. Improvement in risk prediction was assessed via discrimination and reclassification analysis. Within the pooled cohort (median age 57 years; female 54%; Black 22%) higher H1 (small) and H4 (medium) concentrations were inversely associated with incident MI (hazard ratio [HR]/SD, H1 0.88 [95% CI, 0.81-0.94]; H4 0.89 [95% CI, 0.82-0.97]). H4 but not H1 improved risk prediction indices for incident MI. Increasing H2 and H4 were inversely associated with improved risk prediction indices for composite end point of stroke, MI, and cardiovascular death (HR/SD, H2 0.94 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99]; H4 0.91 [95% CI, 0.85-0.98]). Levels of the large subspecies (H6 and H7) were not associated with any vascular end point. Conclusions Two of 7 HDL size-based subspecies modestly improved risk prediction for MI and composite vascular end points in a large multiethnic pooled cohort. These findings support assessment of precise HDL subspecies for future studies regarding clinical utility.

Concordance of a High Lipoprotein(a) Concentration Among Relatives.

Importance: Lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) concentrations are a highly heritable and potential causal risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Recent consensus statements by the European Atherosclerosis Society and American Heart Association recommend screening of relatives of individuals with high Lp(a) concentrations, but the expected yield of this approach has not been quantified in large populations. Objective: To measure the prevalence of high Lp(a) concentrations among first- and second-degree relatives of individuals with high Lp(a) concentrations compared with unrelated participants. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional analysis, pairs of first-degree (n = 19 899) and second-degree (n = 9715) relatives with measured Lp(a) levels from the UK Biobank study and random pairs of unrelated individuals (n = 184 764) were compared. Data for this study were collected from March 2006 to August 2010 and analyzed from December 2021 to August 2023. Exposure: Serum Lp(a) levels, with a high Lp(a) level defined as at least 125 nmol/L. Main Outcome and Measure: Concordance of clinically relevant high Lp(a) levels in first- and second-degree relatives of index participants with high Lp(a) levels. Results: A total of 52 418 participants were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 57.3 [8.0] years; 29 825 [56.9%] women). Levels of Lp(a) were correlated among pairs of first-degree (Spearman ρ = 0.45; P < .001) and second-degree (Spearman ρ = 0.22; P < .001) relatives. A total of 1607 of 3420 (47.0% [95% CI, 45.3%-48.7%]) first-degree and 514 of 1614 (31.8% [95% CI, 29.6%-34.2%]) second-degree relatives of index participants with high Lp(a) levels also had elevated concentrations compared with 4974 of 30 258 (16.4% [95% CI, 16.0%-16.9%]) pairs of unrelated individuals. The concordance in high Lp(a) levels was generally consistent among subgroups (eg, those with prior ASCVD, postmenopausal women, and statin users). The odds ratios for relatives to have high Lp(a) levels if their index relative had a high Lp(a) level compared with those whose index relatives did not have high Lp(a) levels were 7.4 (95% CI, 6.8-8.1) for first-degree relatives and 3.0 (95% CI, 2.7-3.4) for second-degree relatives. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that the yield of cascade screening of first-degree relatives of individuals with high Lp(a) levels is over 40%. These findings support recent recommendations to use this approach to identify additional individuals at ASCVD risk based on Lp(a) concentrations.

A Synopsis of the Evidence for the Science and Clinical Management of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) Syndrome: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

A growing appreciation of the pathophysiological interrelatedness of metabolic risk factors such as obesity and diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease has led to the conceptualization of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome. The confluence of metabolic risk factors and chronic kidney disease within cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome is strongly linked to risk for adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. In addition, there are unique management considerations for individuals with established cardiovascular disease and coexisting metabolic risk factors, chronic kidney disease, or both. An extensive body of literature supports our scientific understanding of, and approach to, prevention and management for individuals with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome. However, there are critical gaps in knowledge related to cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome in terms of mechanisms of disease development, heterogeneity within clinical phenotypes, interplay between social determinants of health and biological risk factors, and accurate assessments of disease incidence in the context of competing risks. There are also key limitations in the data supporting the clinical care for cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome, particularly in terms of early-life prevention, screening for risk factors, interdisciplinary care models, optimal strategies for supporting lifestyle modification and weight loss, targeting of emerging cardioprotective and kidney-protective therapies, management of patients with both cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, and the impact of systematically assessing and addressing social determinants of health. This scientific statement uses a crosswalk of major guidelines, in addition to a review of the scientific literature, to summarize the evidence and fundamental gaps related to the science, screening, prevention, and management of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome.

Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health reflects the interplay among metabolic risk factors, chronic kidney disease, and the cardiovascular system and has profound impacts on morbidity and mortality. There are multisystem consequences of poor cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health, with the most significant clinical impact being the high associated incidence of cardiovascular disease events and cardiovascular mortality. There is a high prevalence of poor cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health in the population, with a disproportionate burden seen among those with adverse social determinants of health. However, there is also a growing number of therapeutic options that favorably affect metabolic risk factors, kidney function, or both that also have cardioprotective effects. To improve cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health and related outcomes in the population, there is a critical need for (1) more clarity on the definition of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome; (2) an approach to cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic staging that promotes prevention across the life course; (3) prediction algorithms that include the exposures and outcomes most relevant to cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health; and (4) strategies for the prevention and management of cardiovascular disease in relation to cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health that reflect harmonization across major subspecialty guidelines and emerging scientific evidence. It is also critical to incorporate considerations of social determinants of health into care models for cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome and to reduce care fragmentation by facilitating approaches for patient-centered interdisciplinary care. This presidential advisory provides guidance on the definition, staging, prediction paradigms, and holistic approaches to care for patients with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome and details a multicomponent vision for effectively and equitably enhancing cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health in the population.

Clinical utility of polygenic scores for cardiometabolic disease in Arabs.

Arabs account for 5% of the world population and have a high burden of cardiometabolic disease, yet clinical utility of polygenic risk prediction in Arabs remains understudied. Among 5399 Arab patients, we optimize polygenic scores for 10 cardiometabolic traits, achieving a performance that is better than published scores and on par with performance in European-ancestry individuals. Odds ratio per standard deviation (OR per SD) for a type 2 diabetes score was 1.83 (95% CI 1.74-1.92), and each SD of body mass index (BMI) score was associated with 1.18 kg/m2 difference in BMI. Polygenic scores associated with disease independent of conventional risk factors, and also associated with disease severity-OR per SD for coronary artery disease (CAD) was 1.78 (95% CI 1.66-1.90) for three-vessel CAD and 1.41 (95% CI 1.29-1.53) for one-vessel CAD. We propose a pragmatic framework leveraging public data as one way to advance equitable clinical implementation of polygenic scores in non-European populations.

Accuracy of incidental visual coronary artery calcium assessment compared with dedicated coronary artery calcium scoring.

INTRODUCTION: CAC can be detected on routine chest computed tomography (CT) scans and may contribute to CVD risk estimation, but the accuracy of visual CAC scoring may be affected by the specialty of the interpreting radiologist and/or the use of contrast. METHODS: The accuracy of visual CAC estimation on non-gated CT scans was evaluated at UT Southwestern Medical Center (UTSW) and Parkland Health and Hospital System (PHHS). All adults who underwent CAC scanning and a non-gated CT scan within 6 months were identified and the scores from the two CTs were compared overall and stratified by type of reader and whether contrast was used. Visual CAC categories of none, small, moderate, and large were compared to CAC â€‹= â€‹0, 1-99, 100-399, and ≥400, respectively. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2021, 934 patients (mean age 60 â€‹± â€‹12 â€‹y, 43% male, 61% White, 34% Black, 24% Hispanic, 54% from PHHS) had both CT scans. Of these, 441 (47%) had no CAC, 278 (30%) small, 147 (16%) moderate, and 66 (7%) large CAC on non-gated CT. Visual CAC estimates were highly correlated with CAC scores (Kendalls tau-b â€‹= â€‹0.76, p â€‹< â€‹0.0001). Among those with no visual CAC, 76% had CAC â€‹= â€‹0 (72% of contrast-enhanced vs 85% of non-contrast scans, 88% of scans interpreted by CT radiologist vs 78% of those interpreted by other radiologist). In those with moderate-to-large visual CAC, 99% had CAC >0 and 88% had CAC ≥100, including 89% of those with contrast, 90% of those without contrast, 80% of those read by a CT radiologist, and 88% of those read by a non-CT radiologist. DISCUSSION: Visual CAC estimates on non-gated CT scans are concordant with Agatston score categories from cardiac CT scans. A lack of visual CAC on non-gated CT scans may not be sufficient to "de-risk" patients, particularly for contrast-enhanced scans and those read by non-CT radiologists. However, the presence of moderate-to-large CAC, including on contrasted scans and regardless of radiologist type, is highly predictive of CAC and may be used to identify high-risk patients for prevention interventions.

Age-Related Differences in the Contribution of Systolic Blood Pressure and Biomarkers to Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

We sought to determine how biomarkers known to be associated with hypertension-induced end-organ injury complement the use of systolic blood pressure (SBP) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction at different ages. Using data from visits 2 (1990 to 1992) and 5 (2011 to 2013) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, 3 models were used to predict CVD (composite of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure). Model A included traditional risk factors (TRFs) except SBP, model B-TRF plus SBP, and model C-TRF plus biomarkers (high-sensitivity troponin T [hsTnT] and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]). Harrel's C-statistics were used to assess risk discrimination for CVD comparing models B and A and C and B. At visit 2, the addition of SBP to TRF (model B vs model A) significantly improved the C-statistic (∆C-statistic, 95% confidence interval 0.010, 0.007 to 0.013) whereas the addition of hsTnT to TRF (model C vs model B) decreased the C-statistic (∆C-statistic -0.0038, -0.0075 to -0.0001) compared with SBP. At visit 5, the addition of SBP to TRF did not significantly improve the C-statistic (∆C-statistic 0.001, -0.002 to 0.005) whereas the addition of both hsTnT and NT-proBNP to TRF significantly improved the C-statistic compared with SBP (∆C-statistic 0.028, 0.015 to 0.041 and 0.055, 0.036 to 0.074, respectively). In summary, the incremental value of SBP for CVD risk prediction diminishes with age whereas the incremental value of hsTnT and NT-proBNP increases with age.

A multi-ancestry polygenic risk score improves risk prediction for coronary artery disease.

Identification of individuals at highest risk of coronary artery disease (CAD)-ideally before onset-remains an important public health need. Prior studies have developed genome-wide polygenic scores to enable risk stratification, reflecting the substantial inherited component to CAD risk. Here we develop a new and significantly improved polygenic score for CAD, termed GPSMult, that incorporates genome-wide association data across five ancestries for CAD (>269,000 cases and >1,178,000 controls) and ten CAD risk factors. GPSMult strongly associated with prevalent CAD (odds ratio per standard deviation 2.14, 95% confidence interval 2.10-2.19, P < 0.001) in UK Biobank participants of European ancestry, identifying 20.0% of the population with 3-fold increased risk and conversely 13.9% with 3-fold decreased risk as compared with those in the middle quintile. GPSMult was also associated with incident CAD events (hazard ratio per standard deviation 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.70-1.76, P < 0.001), identifying 3% of healthy individuals with risk of future CAD events equivalent to those with existing disease and significantly improving risk discrimination and reclassification. Across multiethnic, external validation datasets inclusive of 33,096, 124,467, 16,433 and 16,874 participants of African, European, Hispanic and South Asian ancestry, respectively, GPSMult demonstrated increased strength of associations across all ancestries and outperformed all available previously published CAD polygenic scores. These data contribute a new GPSMult for CAD to the field and provide a generalizable framework for how large-scale integration of genetic association data for CAD and related traits from diverse populations can meaningfully improve polygenic risk prediction.

Human gain-of-function variants in HNF1A confer protection from diabetes but independently increase hepatic secretion of atherogenic lipoproteins.

Loss-of-function mutations in hepatocyte nuclear factor 1A (HNF1A) are known to cause rare forms of diabetes and alter hepatic physiology through unclear mechanisms. In the general population, 1:100 individuals carry a rare, protein-coding HNF1A variant, most of unknown functional consequence. To characterize the full allelic series, we performed deep mutational scanning of 11,970 protein-coding HNF1A variants in human hepatocytes and clinical correlation with 553,246 exome-sequenced individuals. Surprisingly, we found that ∼1:5 rare protein-coding HNF1A variants in the general population cause molecular gain of function (GOF), increasing the transcriptional activity of HNF1A by up to 50% and conferring protection from type 2 diabetes (odds ratio [OR] = 0.77, p = 0.007). Increased hepatic expression of HNF1A promoted a pro-atherogenic serum profile mediated in part by enhanced transcription of risk genes including ANGPTL3 and PCSK9. In summary, ∼1:300 individuals carry a GOF variant in HNF1A that protects carriers from diabetes but enhances hepatic secretion of atherogenic lipoproteins.