Human mobility patterns in Brazil to inform sampling sites for early pathogen detection and routes of spread: a network modelling and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Detecting and foreseeing pathogen dispersion is crucial in preventing widespread disease transmission. Human mobility is a fundamental issue in human transmission of infectious agents. Through a mobility data-driven approach, we aimed to identify municipalities in Brazil that could comprise an advanced sentinel network, allowing for early detection of circulating pathogens and their associated transmission routes. METHODS: In this modelling and validation study, we compiled a comprehensive dataset on intercity mobility spanning air, road, and waterway transport from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (2016 data), National Transport Confederation (2022), and National Civil Aviation Agency (2017-23). We constructed a graph-based representation of Brazil's mobility network. The Ford-Fulkerson algorithm was used to rank the 5570 Brazilian cities according to their suitability as sentinel locations, allowing us to predict the most suitable locations for early detection and to track the most likely trajectory of a newly emerged pathogen. We also obtained SARS-CoV-2 genetic data from Brazilian municipalities during the early stage (Feb 25-April 30, 2020) of the virus's introduction and the gamma (P.1) variant emergence in Manaus (Jan 6-March 1, 2021), for the purposes of model validation. FINDINGS: We found that flights alone transported 79·9 million (95% CI 58·3-101·4 million) passengers annually within Brazil during 2017-22, with seasonal peaks occurring in late spring and summer, and road and river networks had a maximum capacity of 78·3 million passengers weekly in 2016. By analysing the 7 746 479 most probable paths originating from source nodes, we found that 3857 cities fully cover the mobility pattern of all 5570 cities in Brazil, 557 (10·0%) of which cover 6 313 380 (81·5%) of the mobility patterns in our study. By strategically incorporating mobility patterns into Brazil's existing influenza-like illness surveillance network (ie, by switching the location of 111 of 199 sentinel sites to different municipalities), our model predicted that mobility coverage would have a 33·6% improvement from 4 059 155 (52·4%) mobility patterns to 5 422 535 (70·0%) without expanding the number of sentinel sites. Our findings are validated with genomic data collected during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic period. Our model accurately mapped 22 (51%) of 43 clade 1-affected cities and 28 (60%) of 47 clade 2-affected cities spread from São Paulo city, and 20 (49%) of 41 clade 1-affected cities and 28 (58%) of 48 clade 2-affected cities spread from Rio de Janeiro city, Feb 25-April 30, 2020. Additionally, 224 (73%) of the 307 suggested early-detection locations for pathogens emerging in Manaus corresponded with the first cities affected by the transmission of the gamma variant, Jan 6-16, 2021. INTERPRETATION: By providing essential clues for effective pathogen surveillance, our results have the potential to inform public health policy and improve future pandemic response efforts. Our results unlock the potential of designing country-wide clinical sample collection networks with mobility data-informed approaches, an innovative practice that can improve current surveillance systems. FUNDING: Rockefeller Foundation.

An integrated analysis of the structural changes and gene expression of spleen in human visceral leishmaniasis with and without HIV coinfection.

The spleen plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of visceral leishmaniasis. In severe forms of the disease, the spleen undergoes changes that can compromise its function in surveilling blood-circulating pathogens. In this study, we present an integrated analysis of the structural and gene expression alterations in the spleens of three patients with relapsing visceral leishmaniasis, two of whom were coinfected with HIV. Our findings reveal that the IL6 signaling pathway plays a significant role in the disorganization of the white pulp, while BCL10 and ICOSLG are associated with spleen organization. Patients coinfected with HIV and visceral leishmaniasis exhibited lower splenic CD4+ cell density and reduced expression of genes such as IL15. These effects may contribute to a compromised immune response against L. infantum in coinfected individuals, further impacting the structural organization of the spleen.

Detection of encephalitis-causing viruses reveals predominance of chikungunya virus in the state of Bahia, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: Encephalitis is a severe neurological syndrome for which herpesvirus and enteroviruses are the most common etiological agents. Arboviruses, a wildly diverse group of pathogens, are also critical epidemiological agents associated with encephalitis. In Brazil, little is known about the causative agents of encephalitis. METHODS: We conducted a hospital surveillance for encephalitis between 2020 and 2022. Molecular (RT-PCR and qPCR) and serological (virus-specific IgM and viral antigens) techniques were performed in cerebrospinal fluid and serum samples obtained from study participants. RESULTS: In the 43 participants evaluated, the etiologic agent or the presence of IgM was detected in 16 (37.2%). Nine (20.9%) cases were positive for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), three (7.0%) for dengue virus, two (4.7%) for human adenovirus, one (2.3%) for varicella-zoster virus, and one (2.3%) for enterovirus. Whole-genome sequencing revealed that the CHIKV identified belongs to the East/Central/South African lineage. CONCLUSION: Herein, CHIKV is a common pathogen identified in encephalitis cases. Our results reinforce previous evidence that chikungunya represents a significant cause of encephalitis during CHIKV outbreaks and epidemics and add to existing information on the epidemiology of encephalitis in Brazil.

Physical Activity at Different Life Stages and Its Consequence on the Initial Immunization and Inflammatory Response Against COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the influence of previous physical activity (PA) during childhood, adolescence, and current PA practice on the production of antibodies and inflammatory response between the first and second doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. METHODS: Fifty-nine men and 56 women were evaluated before the first vaccine, and 12 weeks later, blood samples were taken to quantify production of anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 immunoglobulin G antibodies and cytokines. Previous PA during childhood and adolescence was self-referred, and current PA was assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. RESULTS: A positive and significant association was observed only between PA practice during adolescence and an increase in antibody production in adulthood (ß = 2012.077, 95% confidence interval, 257.7953-3766.358, P = .025). Individuals who practiced PA during adolescence showed higher production of antibodies between the first and second vaccine dose compared to nonpractitioners (P = .025) and those that accumulated ≥150 minutes per week of current moderate-vigorous PA (MVPA), and presented higher antibody production in relation to who did <150 minutes per week of MVPA (P = .046). Individuals that were practitioners during childhood produced higher G-CSF (P = .047), and those that accumulated ≥150 minutes per week of current MVPA demonstrated lower IP-10 levels (P = .033). However, PA practitioners during adolescence presented higher G-CSF (P = .025), IL-17 (P = .038), IL-1RA (P = .005), IL-1ß (P = .020), and IL-2 (P = .026) levels. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that adults that accumulated at least 150 minutes of MVPA per week or practiced PA during adolescence developed an improved immune and inflammatory response against COVID-19 vaccination.

Overestimation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Household Transmission in Settings of High Community Transmission: Insights From an Informal Settlement Community in Salvador, Brazil.

Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has spread globally. However, the contribution of community versus household transmission to the overall risk of infection remains unclear. Methods: Between November 2021 and March 2022, we conducted an active case-finding study in an urban informal settlement with biweekly visits across 1174 households with 3364 residents. Individuals displaying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related symptoms were identified, interviewed along with household contacts, and defined as index and secondary cases based on reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and symptom onset. Results: In 61 households, we detected a total of 94 RT-PCR-positive cases. Of 69 sequenced samples, 67 cases (97.1%) were attributed to the Omicron BA.1* variant. Among 35 of their households, the secondary attack rate was 50.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.0%-63.0%). Women (relative risk [RR], 1.6 [95% CI, .9-2.7]), older individuals (median difference, 15 [95% CI, 2-21] years), and those reporting symptoms (RR, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.0-3.0]) had a significantly increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 secondary infection. Genomic analysis revealed substantial acquisition of viruses from the community even among households with other SARS-CoV-2 infections. After excluding community acquisition, we estimated a household secondary attack rate of 24.2% (95% CI, 11.9%-40.9%). Conclusions: These findings underscore the ongoing risk of community acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 among households with current infections. The observed high attack rate necessitates swift booster vaccination, rapid testing availability, and therapeutic options to mitigate the severe outcomes of COVID-19.

Pathophysiology of chikungunya virus infection associated with fatal outcomes.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes acute, subacute, and chronic human arthritogenic diseases and, in rare instances, can lead to neurological complications and death. Here, we combined epidemiological, virological, histopathological, cytokine, molecular dynamics, metabolomic, proteomic, and genomic analyses to investigate viral and host factors that contribute to chikungunya-associated (CHIK) death. Our results indicate that CHIK deaths are associated with multi-organ infection, central nervous system damage, and elevated serum levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines compared with survivors. The histopathologic, metabolite, and proteomic signatures of CHIK deaths reveal hemodynamic disorders and dysregulated immune responses. The CHIKV East-Central-South-African lineage infecting our study population causes both fatal and survival cases. Additionally, CHIKV infection impairs the integrity of the blood-brain barrier, as evidenced by an increase in permeability and altered tight junction protein expression. Overall, our findings improve the understanding of CHIK pathophysiology and the causes of fatal infections.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 XBB lineage dissemination in Brazil in 2023.

The SARS-CoV-2 XBB is a group of highly immune-evasive lineages of the Omicron variant of concern that emerged by recombining BA.2-descendent lineages and spread worldwide during 2023. In this study, we combine SARS-CoV-2 genomic data (n = 11,065 sequences) with epidemiological data of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases collected in Brazil between October 2022 and July 2023 to reconstruct the space-time dynamics and epidemiologic impact of XBB dissemination in the country. Our analyses revealed that the introduction and local emergence of lineages carrying convergent mutations within the Spike protein, especially F486P, F456L, and L455F, propelled the spread of XBB* lineages in Brazil. The average relative instantaneous reproduction numbers of XBB* + F486P, XBB* + F486P + F456L, and XBB* + F486P + F456L + L455F lineages in Brazil were estimated to be 1.24, 1.33, and 1.48 higher than that of other co-circulating lineages (mainly BQ.1*/BE*), respectively. Despite such a growth advantage, the dissemination of these XBB* lineages had a reduced impact on Brazil's epidemiological scenario concerning previous Omicron subvariants. The peak number of SARI cases from SARS-CoV-2 during the XBB wave was approximately 90%, 80%, and 70% lower than that observed during the previous BA.1*, BA.5*, and BQ.1* waves, respectively. These findings revealed the emergence of multiple XBB lineages with progressively increasing growth advantage, yet with relatively limited epidemiological impact in Brazil throughout 2023. The XBB* + F486P + F456L + L455F lineages stand out for their heightened transmissibility, warranting close monitoring in the months ahead. IMPORTANCE: Brazil was one the most affected countries by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with more than 700,000 deaths by mid-2023. This study reconstructs the dissemination of the virus in the country in the first half of 2023, a period characterized by the dissemination of descendants of XBB.1, a recombinant of Omicron BA.2 lineages evolved in late 2022. The analysis supports that XBB dissemination was marked by the continuous emergence of indigenous lineages bearing similar mutations in key sites of their Spike protein, a process followed by continuous increments in transmissibility, and without repercussions in the incidence of severe cases. Thus, the results suggest that the epidemiological impact of the spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant is influenced by an intricate interplay of factors that extend beyond the virus's transmissibility alone. The study also underlines the need for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance that allows the monitoring of its ever-shifting composition.

High production MBL2 polymorphisms protect against COVID-19 complications in critically ill patients: A retrospective cohort study.

Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) binds to SARS-CoV-2, inhibits infection of susceptible cells, and activates the complement system via the lectin pathway. In this study, we investigated the association of MBL2 polymorphisms with the risk of hospitalization and clinical worsening in patients with COVID-19. A total of 550 patients with COVID-19 were included (94 non-hospitalized and 456 hospitalized). Polymorphisms in MBL2 exon 1 (codons 52, 54 and 57) and promoter region (-550, -221, and +4) were determined by real-time PCR. MBL and complement proteins were measured by Luminex. A higher frequency of the H/H genotype and the HYPA haplotype was observed in non-hospitalized patients when compared to hospitalized. In addition, critically ill patients carrying haplotypes associated with high MBL levels (HYPA/HYPA + HYPA/LYPA + HYPA/LYQA + LYPA/LYQA + LYPA/LYPA + LYQA/LYQA + LXPA/HYPA + LXPA/LYQA + LXPA/LYPA) were protected against lower oxygen saturation levels (P = 0.02), use of invasive ventilation use (P = 0.02, OR 0.38), and shock (P = 0.01, OR 0.40), independent of other potential confounders adjusted by multivariate analysis. Our results suggest that variants in MBL2 associated with high MBL levels may play a protective role in the clinical course of COVID-19.

Combining Digital and Molecular Approaches Using Health and Alternate Data Sources in a Next-Generation Surveillance System for Anticipating Outbreaks of Pandemic Potential.

Globally, millions of lives are impacted every year by infectious diseases outbreaks. Comprehensive and innovative surveillance strategies aiming at early alert and timely containment of emerging and reemerging pathogens are a pressing priority. Shortcomings and delays in current pathogen surveillance practices further disturbed informing responses, interventions, and mitigation of recent pandemics, including H1N1 influenza and SARS-CoV-2. We present the design principles of the architecture for an early-alert surveillance system that leverages the vast available data landscape, including syndromic data from primary health care, drug sales, and rumors from the lay media and social media to identify areas with an increased number of cases of respiratory disease. In these potentially affected areas, an intensive and fast sample collection and advanced high-throughput genome sequencing analyses would inform on circulating known or novel pathogens by metagenomics-enabled pathogen characterization. Concurrently, the integration of bioclimatic and socioeconomic data, as well as transportation and mobility network data, into a data analytics platform, coupled with advanced mathematical modeling using artificial intelligence or machine learning, will enable more accurate estimation of outbreak spread risk. Such an approach aims to readily identify and characterize regions in the early stages of an outbreak development, as well as model risk and patterns of spread, informing targeted mitigation and control measures. A fully operational system must integrate diverse and robust data streams to translate data into actionable intelligence and actions, ultimately paving the way toward constructing next-generation surveillance systems.

Malaria and COVID-19 coinfection in a non-malaria-endemic area in Brazil

ABSTRACT Differential diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from other febrile diseases is one of several challenges imposed by the pandemic. We present a case of severe malaria and COVID-19 coinfection in a non-malaria-endemic region. A 44-year-old female with malaise, fever, hypotension, jaundice, and enlarged liver and spleen was admitted to the intensive care unit. Reverse transcription-quantitative PCR results for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 were positive. Rapid tests, microscopy, and quantitative PCR were positive for Plasmodium vivax. Cytokine storm profiles were identified. We could not determine whether the severe vivax malaria in our patient was triggered by COVID-19 coinfection.

Tecnologia digital como instrumento de saúde em uma comunidade indígena no Vale de São Francisco / Digital technology as a tool for health promotion in an indigenous community in the Vale de São Francisco

Resumo: Introdução: As comunidades tradicionais são grupos de indivíduos socialmente organizados que partilham comportamentos econômicos, socioambientais e culturais comuns. Entre elas, destacam-se as comunidades indígenas no Brasil, que vêm sofrendo o impacto da urbanização, do crescimento de doenças crônicas e epidemias e do aumento da insegurança alimentar. Relato de experiência: Este estudo teve como objetivo descrever as experiências da equipe de saúde, quanto ao uso de uma ferramenta de gestão de dados na assistência, em uma comunidade indígena no Nordeste brasileiro. Trata-se de um relato de experiência do uso de uma ferramenta digital nas ações assistenciais em uma comunidade tradicional. A equipe de saúde foi dividida em dois grupos: agentes comunitários de saúde e estudantes de Medicina. Discussão: A descrição das experiências e a análise das narrativas resultaram na identificação de 258 citações, que foram classificadas em 12 categorias, relacionadas ao objeto de estudo. Dentre estas, as questões ligadas aos benefícios da ferramenta foram as mais mencionadas (43,41%), em que os subgrupos abordaram diferentes reflexões. A segunda categoria mais citada se referia às limitações da ferramenta (15,11%), sendo a necessidade do sinal de internet o ponto crítico. Ou seja, esta pesquisa mostra vantagens da ferramenta na atenção à saúde, mas também explicita fragilidades inerentes ao seu uso, de modo a trazer questões importantes dessa vivência e estimular práticas semelhantes. Conclusão: Esse relato de experiência, como método científico, traz importantes questões vivenciadas, relacionadas à aplicabilidade prática de uma ferramenta digital em uma comunidade indígena. Apesar de ser inegável que há pontos de fragilidade evidentes, eles não comprometeram o resultado afirmativo da vivência, melhorando a assistência.

Abstract: Introduction: Traditional communities are groups of socially organized individuals with common economic, socio-environmental, and cultural behaviors. Brazil's indigenous communities are a prime example of these groups, suffering the impact of urbanization, the growth of chronic diseases, epidemics, and increased food insecurity. Experience report: To describe the health team's experiences in the use of a data management tool for care in an indigenous community in northeastern Brazil. Methodology: This is an experience report on the use of a digital tool to assist actions in a traditional community. The health team was divided into community health agents and medical students. Discussion: The description of the experiences and analysis of the narratives resulted in identifying 258 citations, classified into 12 categories related to the study scope. Of these, issues related to benefits of the tool were the most commonly mentioned (43.41%), where the subgroups addressed different reflections. The second most cited category referred to the tool's limitations (15.11%), with the need for an internet connection being the critical point. This research, therefore, shows the tool's advantages in health care but also explains weaknesses inherent to its use, raising important issues of this experience and stimulating similar practices. Conclusion: This experience report, as a scientific method, addresses essential experienced issues related to the practical applicability of a digital tool in an indigenous community. Although it is undeniable that there are obvious points of weakness, these did not compromise the positive result of the experience, and care was improved.

Social determinants associated with Zika virus infection in pregnant women

This study aims to describe the sociodemographic determinants associated with exposure to Zika Virus (ZIKV) in pregnant women during the 2015–2016 epidemic in Salvador, Brazil. Methods We recruited women who gave birth between October 2015 and January 2016 to a cross-sectional study at a referral maternity hospital in Salvador, Brazil. We collected information on their demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical characteristics, and evaluated their ZIKV exposure using a plaque reduction neutralization test. Logistic regression was then used to assess the relationship between these social determinants and ZIKV exposure status. Results We included 469 pregnant women, of whom 61% had a positive ZIKV result. Multivariate analysis found that lower education (adjusted Prevalence Rate [aPR] 1.21; 95%CI 1.04–1.35) and food insecurity (aPR 1.17; 95%CI 1.01–1.30) were positively associated with ZIKV exposure. Additionally, age was negatively associated with the infection risk (aPR 0.99; 95%CI 0.97–0.998). Conclusion Eve after controlling for age, differences in key social determinants, as education and food security, were associated with the risk of ZIKV infection among pregnant women in Brazil. Our findings elucidate risk factors that can be targeted by future interventions to reduce the impact of ZIKV infection in this vulnerable population.

A Potential SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest (VOI) Harboring Mutation E484K in the Spike Protein Was Identified within Lineage B 1 1 33 Circulating in Brazil

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in Brazil was dominated by two lineages designated as B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33. The two SARS-CoV-2 variants harboring mutations at the receptor-binding domain of the Spike (S) protein, designated as lineages P.1 and P.2, evolved from lineage B.1.1.28 and are rapidly spreading in Brazil. Lineage P.1 is considered a Variant of Concern (VOC) because of the presence of multiple mutations in the S protein (including K417T, E484K, N501Y), while lineage P.2 only harbors mutation S:E484K and is considered a Variant of Interest (VOI). On the other hand, epidemiologically relevant B.1.1.33 deriving lineages have not been described so far. Here we report the identification of a new SARS-CoV-2 VOI within lineage B.1.1.33 that also harbors mutation S:E484K and was detected in Brazil between November 2020 and February 2021. This VOI displayed four non-synonymous lineage-defining mutations (NSP3:A1711V, NSP6:F36L, S:E484K, and NS7b:E33A) and was designated as lineage N.9. The VOI N.9 probably emerged in August 2020 and has spread across different Brazilian states from the Southeast, South, North, and Northeast regions.