Spatial variability in herbaceous plant phenology is mostly explained by variability in temperature but also by photoperiod and functional traits.

Whereas temporal variability of plant phenology in response to climate change has already been well studied, the spatial variability of phenology is not well understood. Given that phenological shifts may affect biotic interactions, there is a need to investigate how the variability in environmental factors relates to the spatial variability in herbaceous species' phenology by at the same time considering their functional traits to predict their general and species-specific responses to future climate change. In this project, we analysed phenology records of 148 herbaceous species, which were observed for a single year by the PhenObs network in 15 botanical gardens. For each species, we characterised the spatial variability in six different phenological stages across gardens. We used boosted regression trees to link these variabilities in phenology to the variability in environmental parameters (temperature, latitude and local habitat conditions) as well as species traits (seed mass, vegetative height, specific leaf area and temporal niche) hypothesised to be related to phenology variability. We found that spatial variability in the phenology of herbaceous species was mainly driven by the variability in temperature but also photoperiod was an important driving factor for some phenological stages. In addition, we found that early-flowering and less competitive species characterised by small specific leaf area and vegetative height were more variable in their phenology. Our findings contribute to the field of phenology by showing that besides temperature, photoperiod and functional traits are important to be included when spatial variability of herbaceous species is investigated.

Substantial shifts in flowering phenology of Sternbergia vernalis in the Himalaya: Supplementing decadal field records with historical and experimental evidences.

In an age of anthropocene, shifting plant phenology is one of the most striking biological indicators of global environmental change. Majority of the studies reporting shifts in plant phenology are available from the North America and Europe and largely scarce from the developing world, including the Himalaya; and studies integrating multiple methodological approaches to investigate the climate-driven phenological shifts are too rare. Here, we report the shifts in spring flowering phenology of model plant species, Sternbergia vernalis in response to the changing climate in Kashmir Himalaya, by integrating decadal field observational records with long-term herbarium and dated-photograph data, and supported with experimental evidences. Our results revealed a significant increasing trend of 0.038, 0.016 and 0.023 °C/year in the annual mean maximum temperature (Tmax), mean minimum temperature (Tmin) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) respectively; but an insignificant decreasing trend in annual precipitation of -1.24 mm/year over the last four decades (1980-2019) in this Himalayan region. The flowering phenology of S. vernalis has significantly advanced by 11.8 days/°C and 27.8 days/°C increase in Tmax and Tmin respectively, indicating that the climate warming has led to substantial shifts in flowering phenology of the model plant species. We also observed a strong association of seasonal Tmax (December-February) and DTR on the early onset of spring flowering, however precipitation had no significant effect on the timing of flowering. The greenhouse experiment results further supported a significant effect of temperature in triggering the phenological shifts, wherein the model plant grown under different temperature treatments flowered 9-20 days earlier compared to the control. Our study showcases the integrated use of multiple methodological approaches for unravelling the long-term phenological shifts in response to climate change, and contributes in filling the knowledge gaps in the phenological research from the developing world in general and the Himalaya in particular.

Plant invasion alters the physico-chemical dynamics of soil system: insights from invasive Leucanthemum vulgare in the Indian Himalaya.

Understanding the impact of plant invasions on the terrestrial ecosystems, particularly below-ground soil system dynamics can be vital for successful management and restoration of invaded landscapes. Here, we report the impacts of a global plant invader, Leucanthemum vulgare Lam. (ox-eye daisy), on the key physico-chemical soil properties across four sites selected along an altitudinal gradient (1600-2550 m) in Kashmir Himalaya, India. At each site, two types of spatially separated but environmentally similar sampling plots: invaded (IN) and uninvaded (UN) were selected for soil sampling. The results revealed that invasion by L. vulgare had a significant impact on key soil properties in the IN plots. The soil pH, water content, organic carbon and total nitrogen were significantly higher in the IN plots as compared with the UN plots. In contrast, the electrical conductivity, phosphorous and micronutrients, viz. iron, copper, manganese and zinc, were significantly lower in the IN plots as compared with the UN plots. These changes in the soil system dynamics associated with L. vulgare invasion were consistent across all the sites. Also, among the sites, soil properties of low-altitude site (1600 m) were different from the rest of the sampling sites. Overall, the results of the present study indicate that L. vulgare, by altering key properties of the soil system, is likely to influence nutrient cycling processes and facilitates positive feedback for itself. Furthermore, the research insights from this study have wide management implications in the effective ecological restoration of the invaded landscapes.

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change.

In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.

Altitudinal distribution patterns of the native and alien woody flora in Kashmir Himalaya, India.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have shown that alien species richness pattern follows that of native species richness patterns along environmental gradients, without taking the specific composition of the two groups into account. OBJECTIVES: To compare species richness patterns of native and alien woody plants along an altitudinal gradient in Kashmir Himalaya, India, and to analyse the specific composition, e.g. proportion of life forms. METHODS: Analysis of secondary data from published floristic inventories. The gradient (500-4800m asl) was split into 100m bands and presence/absence data for each species were obtained, for each band. RESULTS: Species richness of both native and alien species followed a hump-shaped distribution. Alien species richness dropped faster above 2000masl than the native did. The ratio of trees to shrubs decreased monotonically along the gradient in native species, but showed a peak at c. 2500masl in alien species. Alien species flowered in average earlier than native species. CONCLUSIONS: The change of species richness of native and alien species along altitude is similar, but the proportion of life forms is not. Most likely both climatic and socio-economic factors affect alien species richness and its specific composition in the Kashmir Himalaya.

Towards an integrated research framework and policy agenda on biological invasions in the developing world: a case-study of India.

BACKGROUND: Scientific literature on biological invasions in the developing world is currently scarce. India, a fast-globalizing country, faces a high risk of biological invasions. However, research and policy efforts on biological invasions in India are presently inadequate. OBJECTIVES: To propose an integrated research framework and policy agenda on biological invasions for India. METHODS: The framework and agenda, drawn from research insights gained from plant invasion studies in the Kashmir Himalaya (India), adopts a stage-based model for characterization of invasive alien biota in India. RESULTS: The research framework explicates crucial information on the origin, purpose and pathway of introduction, residence time, species invasiveness, invasiveness elsewhere, habitat invasibility, latitudinal and altitudinal ranges and ecological and economic impacts of invasive species. The policy agenda highlights an urgent need for regulation of introduction pathways, prioritization of the worst invasive species, shifting from species- to biota-centric approaches, looking beyond political borders, forging interdisciplinary collaboration, launching a national network, and generating public awareness. CONCLUSIONS: Adoption of such an integrated framework and agenda in India, and in other developing countries, can significantly fill the geographical knowledge gaps in invasion biology research-which is crucial in winning the global battle against harmful biological invasions.