A simplified clinical prediction score of chronic kidney disease: a cross-sectional-survey study.

BACKGROUND: Knowing the risk factors of CKD should be able to identify at risk populations. We thus aimed to develop and validate a simplified clinical prediction score capable of indicating those at risk. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey study was conducted. Ten provinces and 20 districts were stratified-cluster randomly selected across four regions in Thailand and Bangkok. The outcome of interest was chronic kidney disease stage I to V versus non-CKD. Logistic regression was applied to assess the risk factors. Scoring was created using odds ratios of significant variables. The ROC curve analysis was used to calibrate the cut-off of the scores. Bootstrap was applied to internally validate the performance of this prediction score. RESULTS: Three-thousand, four-hundred and fifty-nine subjects were included to derive the prediction scores. Four (i.e., age, diabetes, hypertension, and history of kidney stones) were significantly associated with the CKD. Total scores ranged from 4 to 16 and the score discrimination was 77.0%. The scores of 4-5, 6-8, 9-11, and ≥ 12 correspond to low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high probabilities of CKD with the likelihood ratio positive (LR+) of 1, 2.5 (95% CI: 2.2-2.7), 4.9 (95% CI: 3.9 - 6.3), and 7.5 (95% CI: 5.6 - 10.1), respectively. Internal validity was performed using 200 repetitions of a bootstrap technique. Calibration was assessed and the difference between observed and predicted values was 0.045. The concordance C statistic of the derivative and validated models were similar, i.e., 0.770 and 0.741. CONCLUSIONS: A simplified clinical prediction score for estimating risk of having CKD was created. The prediction score may be useful in identifying and classifying at riskpatients. However, further external validation is needed to confirm this.

Prevalence and risk factors of chronic kidney disease in the Thai adult population: Thai SEEK study.

BACKGROUND: Previous reports of chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence in Thailand varied from 4.3% to 13.8%. However, there were methodological concerns with these reports in terms of generalization and the accuracy of estimation. This study was, therefore, conducted to determine CKD prevalence and its risk factors in Thai adult populations. METHODS: The population-based Thai Screening and Early Evaluation of Kidney Disease (SEEK) study was conducted with cross-sectional stratified-cluster sampling. Serum creatinine was analysed using the modified Jaffe method and then standardized with isotope dilution mass spectrometry. RESULTS: The study included 3,459 subjects were included in the study. The mean age was 45.2 years (SE = 0.8), and 54.5% were female. Six hundred and twenty-six subjects were identified as having CKD, which evidenced an overall CKD prevalence of 17.5% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 14.6-20.4%]. The CKD prevalence of Stages I, II, III and IV were 3.3% (95% CI = 2.5%, 4.1%), 5.6% (95% CI = 4.2%, 7.0%), 7.5% (95% CI = 6.2%, 8.8%) and 1.1% (95% CI = 0.7%, 1.5%), respectively. The prevalence of CKD was higher in Bangkok, the Northern and Northeastern regions than in the Central and Southern regions. Seven factors (i.e. age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, hyperuricaemia, history of kidney stones and the use of traditional medicines) were associated with CKD. Only 1.9% of the subjects were aware that they had CKD. CONCLUSIONS: CKD prevalence in the Thai population is much higher than previously known and published. Early stages of CKD seem to be as common as later stages. However, albuminuria measurement was not confirmed and adjusting for persistent positive rates resulted in the prevalence of 14.4%. Furthermore, the awareness of CKD was quite low in the Thai population.