A dynamic model to estimate the activity concentration and whole body dose rate of marine biota as consequences of a nuclear accident.

This paper describes a dynamic compartment model (K-BIOTA-DYN-M) to assess the activity concentration and whole body dose rate of marine biota as a result of a nuclear accident. The model considers the transport of radioactivity between the marine biota through the food chain, and applies the first order kinetic model for the sedimentation of radionuclides from seawater onto sediment. A set of ordinary differential equations representing the model are simultaneously solved to calculate the activity concentration of the biota and the sediment, and subsequently the dose rates, given the seawater activity concentration. The model was applied to investigate the long-term effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the marine biota using (131)I, (134)Cs, and, (137)Cs activity concentrations of seawater measured for up to about 2.5 years after the accident at two locations in the port of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) which was the most highly contaminated area. The predicted results showed that the accumulated dose for 3 months after the accident was about 4-4.5Gy, indicating the possibility of occurrence of an acute radiation effect in the early phase after the Fukushima accident; however, the total dose rate for most organisms studied was usually below the UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation)'s bench mark level for chronic exposure except for the initial phase of the accident, suggesting a very limited radiological effect on the marine biota at the population level. The predicted Cs sediment activity by the first-order kinetic model for the sedimentation was in a good agreement with the measured activity concentration. By varying the ecological parameter values, the present model was able to predict the very scattered (137)Cs activity concentrations of fishes measured in the port of FDNPS. Conclusively, the present dynamic model can be usefully applied to estimate the activity concentration and whole body dose rate of the marine biota as the consequence of a nuclear accident.

Radiation exposure to marine biota around the Fukushima Daiichi NPP.

The dose rates for six marine organisms, pelagic fish, benthic fish, mollusks, crustaceans, macroalgae, and polychaete worms, representative in marine ecosystems, have been predicted by the equilibrium model with the measured seawater activity concentrations at three locations around the Fukushima Daiich nuclear power plant after the accident on March 11, 2011. Model prediction showed that total dose rates for the biota in the costal sea reached 4.8E4 µGy/d for pelagic fish, 3.6E6 µGy/d for crustaceans, 3.8E6 µGy/d for benthic fish, 5.2E6 µGy/d for macroalgae, 6.6E6 µGy/d for mollusks, and 8.0E6 µGy/d for polychaete worms. The predicted total dose rates remained above the UNSCEAR's (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effect of Atomic Radiation) benchmark level (1.0E4 µGy/d for an individual aquatic organism), for only the initial short period, which seems to be insufficiently long to bring about any detrimental effect on the marine biota at the population level. Furthermore, the total dose rates for benthic fish and crustaceans approximated using the measured activity concentration of the biota and bottom sediment was well below the benchmark level. From these results, it may be concluded that the impact of the ionizing radiation on the marine biota around the Fukushima NPP as a consequence of the accident would be insignificant.