Noninvasive risk assessment of hepatic decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Hepatic decompensation is a major complication of liver cirrhosis. We validated the predictive performance of the newly proposed CHESS-ALARM model to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis and compared it with other transient elastography (TE)-based models such as liver stiffness-spleen size-to-platelet (LSPS), portal hypertension (PH), varices risk scores, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and albumin-bilirubin-fibrosis-4 (ALBI-FIB-4). METHODS: Four hundred eighty-two patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis between 2006 and 2014 were recruited. Liver cirrhosis was clinically or morphologically defined. The predictive performance of the models was assessed using a time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). RESULTS: During the study period, 48 patients (10.0%) developed hepatic decompensation (median 93 months). The 1-year predictive performance of the LSPS model (tAUC = 0.8405) was higher than those of the PH model (tAUC = 0.8255), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC = 0.8168), ALBI (tAUC = 0.8153), CHESS-ALARM (tAUC = 0.8090), and variceal risk score (tAUC = 0.7990). The 3-year predictive performance of the LSPS model (tAUC = 0.8673) was higher than those of the PH risk score (tAUC = 0.8670), CHESS-ALARM (tAUC = 0.8329), variceal risk score (tAUC = 0.8290), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC = 0.7730), and ALBI (tAUC = 0.7451). The 5-year predictive performance of the PH risk score (tAUC = 0.8521) was higher than those of the LSPS (tAUC = 0.8465), varices risk score (tAUC = 0.8261), CHESS-ALARM (tAUC = 0.7971), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC = 0.7743), and ALBI (tAUC = 0.7541). However, there was no significant difference in the predictive performance among all models at 1, 3, and 5 years (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The CHESS-ALARM score was able to reliably predict hepatic decompensation in patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis and showed similar performance to the LSPS, PH, varices risk scores, ALBI, and ALBI-FIB-4.

Revised Korean Antiviral Guideline Reduces the Hepatitis B-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Cirrhotic Patients.

BACKGROUND: Since September 2015, the initiation of antiviral therapy (AVT) for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis has been reimbursed according to the revised Korean Association for the Study of Liver (KASL) guideline, if the patient had hepatitis B virus DNA level ≥ 2,000 IU/L, regardless of aminotransferase or alanine aminotransferase levels. This study investigated whether the KASL guideline implementation reduced the risk of CHB-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis in South Korea. METHODS: A total of 429 patients with CHB-related cirrhosis who initiated AVT between 2014 and 2016 were recruited. The risk of HCC development was compared between patients who initiated AVT before and after September 2015 (pre-guideline [n = 196, 45.7%] vs. post-guideline implementation [n = 233, 54.3%]). RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation, older age, male gender, and diabetes significantly predicted increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Subsequent multivariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation (HR = 1.941), older age (HR = 5.762), male gender (HR = 2.555), and diabetes (HR = 1.568) independently predicted increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Additionally, multivariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation (HR = 2.309), male gender (HR = 3.058), and lower platelet count (HR = 0.989) independently predicted mortality (P < 0.05). The cumulative incidences of HCC and mortality were significantly higher in patients who initiated AVT before guideline implementation than in those who initiated AVT after guideline implementation (all P < 0.05, log-rank test). CONCLUSION: The prognosis of patients with CHB-related cirrhosis who initiated AVT improved after guideline implementation according to the revised KASL guideline.

Validation of Pre-/Post-TACE-Predict Models among Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Receiving Transarterial Chemoembolization.

This study attempted to validate the prognostic performance of the proposed Pre- and Post-TACE (transarterial chemoembolization)-Predict models, in comparison with other models for prognostication. One-hundred-and-eighty-seven patients with HCC who underwent TACE were recruited. Regarding overall survival (OS), the predictive performance of the Pre-TACE-Predict model (one-year integrated area under the curve (iAUC) 0.685 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.593-0.772)) was better than that of the Post-TACE-Predict model (iAUC 0.659 (95% CI 0.580-0.742)). However, there was no significant statistical difference between two models at any time point. For comparison between models using pre-treatment factors, the modified hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic (mHAP)-II model demonstrated significantly better predictive performance at one year (iAUC 0.767 (95% CI 0.683-0.847)) compared with Pre-TACE-Predict. For comparison between models using first TACE response, the SNACOR model was significantly more predictive at one year (iAUC 0.778 (95% CI 0.687-0.866) vs. 0.659 (95% CI 0.580-0.742), respectively) and three years (iAUC 0.707 (95% CI 0.646-0.770) vs. 0.624 (95% CI 0.564-0.688), respectively) than the Post-TACE-Predict model. mHAP-II and SNACOR may be preferred over the Pre- and Post-TACE-Predict models, respectively, considering their similar or better performance and the ease of application.

Transarterial Chemoembolization in Treatment-Naïve and Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Propensity-Matched Outcome Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) improves the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, TACE treatment outcomes of patients with treatment-naïve HCC (TN-HCC) and those with recurrent HCC after curative resection (R-HCC) have not yet been compared. METHODS: We recruited 448 patients with TN-HCC, and 275 patients with R-HCC treated with TACE as first-line anti-cancer treatment. RESULTS: At first TACE, patients with TN-HCC showed a significantly lower proportion of male gender (74.9% vs. 84.3%), higher proportion of liver cirrhosis (61.9% vs. 49.3%), higher aspartate aminotransferase (median 48 vs. 31 IU/L), alanine aminotransferase (median 38 vs. 26 IU/L), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (median 96.6 vs. 7.7 ng/mL), and total bilirubin (mean 1.0 vs. 0.8 mg/dL) levels, longer prothrombin time (median 1.05 vs. 1.01 international normalized ratio), higher tumor number (mean 2.1 vs. 1.7), larger tumor size (median 3.1 vs. 1.6 cm), and lower proportion of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0-A (55.6% vs. 71.9%) than patients with R-HCC (all P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that TACE for TN-HCC (vs. R-HCC) was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 1.328; P = 0.024) with AFP level and tumor number (all P < 0.05). However, treatment outcomes between TN-HCC and R-HCC became statistically similar after propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis using liver cirrhosis, tumor size, and multiple tumors (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the similar TACE treatment outcomes observed with the PSM analysis, the current TACE treatment guideline for patients with TN-HCC might similarly be applied for patients with R-HCC.

Influence of hepatic steatosis on the outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir and tenofovir.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The influence of hepatic steatosis (HS) on chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is unclear. We evaluated the influence of the degree of HS, assessed using the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) of transient elastography (TE), on treatment outcomes in CHB patients initiated on antiviral therapy. METHODS: A total of 334 patients who were initiated on entecavir or tenofovir between 2007 and 2016 with available TE results were recruited. RESULTS: Of the total study population, 146 (43.7%) patients had HS (CAP > 238 dB/m). Three-hundred-three patients (90.7%) achieved complete virological response (CVR) (hepatitis B virus DNA<12 IU/L), and 25 patients (7.5%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Among hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive patients (n=172, 51.5%), 37 (21.5%) experienced HBeAg loss. On univariate analysis, CAP value was not associated with the probability of HCC development (P=0.380). However, lower CAP value was independently associated with higher probability of HBeAg loss among HBeAg-positive patients (hazard ratio [HR]=0.991, P=0.026) and with CVR achievement in the entire study population (HR=0.996, P=0.004). The cumulative incidence of HBeAg loss among HBeAg-positive patients was significantly higher in patients without HS than in those with HS (log-rank, P=0.022). CONCLUSION: CAP values were not correlated with HCC development in patients initiated on entecavir and tenofovir. However, CAP values were negatively correlated with the probability of HBeAg loss among HBeAg-positive patients and with CVR achievement.