Association of Dynamic Trajectories of Time-Series Data and Life-Threatening Mass Effect in Large Middle Cerebral Artery Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Life-threatening, space-occupying mass effect due to cerebral edema and/or hemorrhagic transformation is an early complication of patients with middle cerebral artery stroke. Little is known about longitudinal trajectories of laboratory and vital signs leading up to radiographic and clinical deterioration related to this mass effect. METHODS: We curated a retrospective data set of 635 patients with large middle cerebral artery stroke totaling 95,463 data points for 10 longitudinal covariates and 40 time-independent covariates. We assessed trajectories of the 10 longitudinal variables during the 72 h preceding three outcomes representative of life-threatening mass effect: midline shift ≥ 5 mm, pineal gland shift (PGS) > 4 mm, and decompressive hemicraniectomy (DHC). We used a "backward-looking" trajectory approach. Patients were aligned based on outcome occurrence time and the trajectory of each variable was assessed before that outcome by accounting for cases and noncases, adjusting for confounders. We evaluated longitudinal trajectories with Cox proportional time-dependent regression. RESULTS: Of 635 patients, 49.0% were female, and the mean age was 69 years. Thirty five percent of patients had midline shift ≥ 5 mm, 24.3% of patients had PGS > 4 mm, and 10.7% of patients underwent DHC. Backward-looking trajectories showed mild increases in white blood cell count (10-11 K/UL within 72 h), temperature (up to half a degree within 24 h), and sodium levels (1-3 mEq/L within 24 h) before the three outcomes of interest. We also observed a decrease in heart rate (75-65 beats per minute) 24 h before DHC. We found a significant association between increased white blood cell count with PGS > 4 mm (hazard ratio 1.05, p value 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal profiling adjusted for confounders demonstrated that white blood cell count, temperature, and sodium levels appear to increase before radiographic and clinical indicators of space-occupying mass effect. These findings will inform the development of multivariable dynamic risk models to aid prediction of life-threatening, space-occupying mass effect.

Association of large core middle cerebral artery stroke and hemorrhagic transformation with hospitalization outcomes.

Historically, investigators have not differentiated between patients with and without hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in large core ischemic stroke at risk for life-threatening mass effect (LTME) from cerebral edema. Our objective was to determine whether LTME occurs faster in those with HT compared to those without. We conducted a two-center retrospective study of patients with ≥ 1/2 MCA territory infarct between 2006 and 2021. We tested the association of time-to-LTME and HT subtype (parenchymal, petechial) using Cox regression, controlling for age, mean arterial pressure, glucose, tissue plasminogen activator, mechanical thrombectomy, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale, antiplatelets, anticoagulation, temperature, and stroke side. Secondary and exploratory outcomes included mass effect-related death, all-cause death, disposition, and decompressive hemicraniectomy. Of 840 patients, 358 (42.6%) had no HT, 403 (48.0%) patients had petechial HT, and 79 (9.4%) patients had parenchymal HT. LTME occurred in 317 (37.7%) and 100 (11.9%) had mass effect-related deaths. Parenchymal (HR 8.24, 95% CI 5.46-12.42, p < 0.01) and petechial HT (HR 2.47, 95% CI 1.92-3.17, p < 0.01) were significantly associated with time-to-LTME and mass effect-related death. Understanding different risk factors and sequelae of mass effect with and without HT is critical for informed clinical decisions.

Later Midline Shift Is Associated with Better Outcomes after Large Middle Cerebral Artery Stroke.

Background/Objective: Space occupying cerebral edema is the most feared early complication after large ischemic stroke, occurring in up to 30% of patients with middle cerebral artery (MCA) occlusion, and is reported to peak 2-4 days after injury. Little is known about the factors and outcomes associated with peak edema timing, especially when it occurs after 96 hours. We aimed to characterize differences between patients who experienced maximum midline shift (MLS) or decompressive hemicraniectomy (DHC) in the acute (<48 hours), average (48-96 hours), and subacute (>96 hours) groups and determine whether patients with subacute peak edema timing have improved discharge dispositions. Methods: We performed a two-center, retrospective study of patients with ≥1/2 MCA territory infarct and MLS. We constructed a multivariable model to test the association of subacute peak edema and favorable discharge disposition, adjusting for age, admission Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS), National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), acute thrombolytic intervention, cerebral atrophy, maximum MLS, parenchymal hemorrhagic transformation, DHC, and osmotic therapy receipt. Results: Of 321 eligible patients with MLS, 32%, 36%, and 32% experienced acute, average, and subacute peak edema. Subacute peak edema was significantly associated with higher odds of favorable discharge than non-subacute swelling, adjusting for confounders (aOR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.05-3.31). Conclusions: Subacute peak edema after large MCA stroke is associated with better discharge disposition compared to earlier peak edema courses. Understanding how the timing of cerebral edema affects risk of unfavorable discharge has important implications for treatment decisions and prognostication.

Follow-up ASPECTS improves prediction of potentially lethal malignant edema in patients with large middle cerebral artery stroke.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that follow-up head CT is a strong predictor of functional outcomes in patients with middle cerebral artery stroke and mechanical thrombectomy. We sought to determine whether total and/or regional follow-up Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTSfu) are associated with important clinical outcomes during hospitalization and improve the performance of clinical prediction models of potentially lethal malignant edema (PLME). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of patients at three medical centers in a major North American metropolitan area with baseline and follow-up head CTs after large middle cerebral artery stroke between 2006 and 2022. We used multivariable logistic regression to test the association of total and regional ASPECTSfu with PLME (cerebral edema related death or surgery), adjusting for total baseline ASPECTS, age, sex, admission glucose, tissue plasminogen activator, and mechanical thrombectomy. We compared existing clinical risk models with and without total or regional ASPECTSfu using area under the curve. RESULTS: In our 560 patient cohort, lower total ASPECTSfu was significantly associated with higher odds of PLME when adjusting for confounders (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.49 to 2.0), and improved model discrimination compared with existing models and models using baseline ASPECTS. Deep territory involvement (OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.53 to 4.01) and anterior territory involvement (OR 3.23, 95% CI 1.88 to 5.71) were significantly associated with PLME. CONCLUSIONS: Lower ASPECTSfu and certain locations on regional ASPECTSfu, including deep and anterior areas, were significantly associated with PLME. Including ASPECTSfu information improved discrimination of established edema prediction models and could be used immediately to help facilitate clinical management decisions and prognostication.