Benchmarking clinical risk prediction algorithms with ensemble machine learning for the non-invasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in NAFLD.

Ensemble machine learning methods, like the superlearner, combine multiple models into a single one to enhance predictive accuracy. Here we explore the potential of the superlearner as a benchmarking tool for clinical risk prediction, illustrating the approach in identifying significant liver fibrosis among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We used 23 demographic/clinical variables to train superlearner(s) on data from the NASH-CRN observational study (n=648) and validated models with data from the FLINT trial (n=270) and NHANES participants with NAFLD (n=1244). Comparing the superlearner's performance to existing models (FIB-4, NFS, Forns, APRI, BARD, and SAFE), it exhibited strong discriminative ability in the FLINT and NHANES validation sets, with AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73-0.84) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79) respectively. Notably, the SAFE score performed similarly to the superlearner, both of which outperformed FIB-4, APRI, Forns, and BARD scores in the validation datasets. Surprisingly, the superlearner derived from 12 base models matched the performance of one with 90 base models. Overall, the superlearner, being the "best-in-class" ML predictor, excelled in detecting fibrotic NASH, and this approach can be used to benchmark the performance of conventional clinical risk prediction models.

Enhancing the Usability of older DCD donors through strategic approaches in liver transplantation in the US.

BACKGROUND: The use of older donors after circulatory death(DCD) for liver transplantation(LT) has increased over the past decade. This study examined whether outcomes of LT using older DCD(≥50 y) have improved with advancements in surgical/perioperative care and normothermic machine perfusion(NMP) technology. METHOD: 7,602 DCD LT cases from the UNOS database(2003-2022) were reviewed. The impact of older DCD donors on graft survival(GS) was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and hazard ratio(HR) analyses. RESULTS: 1,447 LT cases(19.0%) involved older DCD donors. Although there was a decrease in their use from 2003-2014, a resurgence was noted post-2015 and reached 21.9% of all LT in the last four years(2019-2022). Initially, 90-day and one-year GS for older DCDs were worse than younger DCDs, but this difference decreased over time and there was no statistical difference after 2015. Similarly, HRs for graft loss in older DCD have recently become insignificant. In older DCD LT, NMP usage has increased recently, especially in cases with extended donor-recipient distances, while the median time from asystole to aortic cross-clamp has decreased. Multivariable Cox regression analyses revealed that in the early phase, asystole to cross-clamp time had the highest HR for graft loss in older DCD LT without NMP, while in the later phases, the CIT(>5.5 h) was a significant predictor. CONCLUSION: LT outcomes using older DCD donors have become comparable to those from young DCD donors, with recent HRs for graft loss becoming insignificant. The strategic approach in the recent period could mitigate risks, including managing CIT(≤5.5 h), reducing asystole to cross-clamp time, and adopting NMP for longer distances. Optimal use of older DCD donors may alleviate the donor shortage.

Chronic hepatitis B baseline viral load and on-treatment liver cancer risk: A multinational cohort study of HBeAg-positive patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A single-nation study reported that pretreatment HBV viral load is associated with on-treatment risk of HCC in patients who are HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B initiating antiviral treatment. We aimed to validate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in a larger, multinational cohort. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using a multinational cohort from Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan involving 7545 adult patients with HBeAg-positive, without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment with baseline HBV viral load ≥5.00 log 10 IU/mL, HCC risk was estimated by baseline viral load. HBV viral load was analyzed as a categorical variable. During continuous antiviral treatment (median, 4.28 y), HCC developed in 200 patients (incidence rate, 0.61 per 100 person-years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a nonlinear pattern. HCC risk was lowest with the highest baseline viral load (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL; incidence rate, 0.10 per 100 person-years), but increased sharply as baseline viral load decreased. The adjusted HCC risk was 8.05 times higher (95% CI, 3.34-19.35) with baseline viral load ≥6.00 and <7.00 log 10 IU/mL (incidence rate, 1.38 per 100 person-years) compared with high (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL) baseline viral load ( p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a multinational cohort of adult patients with HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B, baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk despite antiviral treatment. Patients with the highest viral load who initiated treatment had the lowest long-term risk of HCC development.

OPTN/SRTR 2022 Annual Data Report: Liver.

In 2022, liver transplant activity continued to increase in the United States, with an all-time high of 9,527 transplants performed, representing a 52% increase over the past decade (2012-2022). Of these transplants, 8,924 (93.7%) were from deceased donors and 603 (6.3%) were from living donors. Liver transplant recipients were 94.5% adult and 5.5% pediatric. The overall size of the liver transplant waiting list contracted, with more patients being removed than added, although 10,548 adult patients still remained on the waiting list at the end of 2022. Alcohol-associated liver disease continued to be the leading diagnosis among both candidates and recipients, followed by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis. Simultaneous liver-kidney transplant was the most common multiorgan combination, with 800 liver-kidney transplants performed in 2022; in addition, there were 303 new listings for kidney transplant via the safety net mechanism. Among adults added to the liver waiting list in 2021, 39.9% received a deceased donor liver transplant within 3 months; 45.7%, within 6 months; and 54.5%, within 1 year. Pretransplant mortality decreased to 12.3 deaths per 100 patient-years in 2022, although still 15.6% of removals from the waiting list were for death or being too sick for transplant. Graft and patient survival outcomes after deceased donor liver transplant improved, approximating pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, with 5.1% mortality observed at 6 months; 6.8%, at 1 year; 12.7%, at 3 years; 19.8%, at 5 years; and 35.7%, at 10 years. Five-year graft and patient survival rates after living donor liver transplant exceeded those of deceased donor liver transplant. Candidates receiving model for end-stage liver disease exception points for hepatocellular carcinoma constituted 15.5% of transplants performed in 2022, with similar transplant rates and posttransplant outcomes compared to cases without hepatocellular carcinoma exception. In 2022, more pediatric liver transplant candidates were added to the waiting list and underwent transplant compared with either of the preceding 2 years, with an uptick in living donor liver transplant volume. Although pretransplant mortality has improved after the recent policy change prioritizing pediatric donors for pediatric recipients, still, in 2022, 50 children died or were removed from the waiting list for being too sick to undergo transplant. Posttransplant mortality among pediatric liver transplant recipients remained notable, with death occurring in 4.0% at 6 months, 6.0% at 1 year, 8.2% at 3 years, 9.8% at 5 years, and 13.9% at 10 years. Similar to adult living donor recipients, pediatric living donor recipients had better 5-year patient survival compared with deceased donor recipients.

Diagnostic and prognostic performance of the SAFE score in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score was developed to detect clinically significant liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD in the United States. We compare the performance of the SAFE score and other non-invasive tests to diagnose liver fibrosis and to correlate the scores with liver-related outcomes in patients with NAFLD in Hong Kong. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study involving two data sets. The first cohort was a biopsy cohort of NAFLD patients (n = 279), and the second was a territory-wide cohort of NAFLD patients (n = 4603) retrieved from a territory-wide electronic healthcare database in Hong Kong. RESULTS: In detecting significant fibrosis, liver stiffness measured by transient elastography had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (.844), followed by SAFE score (.773). SAFE score had the highest AUROC among blood-based algorithms (.773 vs. .746 for FIB-4, .697 for APRI). Based on cut-off values of SAFE score (0 and 100 points), 854 (18.6%), 1596 (34.6%) and 2153 (46.8%) were in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively, in the territory-wide cohort. Six (.7%), 15 (.9%) and 59 (2.7%) developed liver-related events in those three groups respectively. Among patients who had liver-related events at 5 years, using the high cut-off, SAFE score could predict 84.9% of patients accurately, compared to 40.9% for FIB-4 and 27.2% for APRI. CONCLUSION: The SAFE score performed well and better than other blood-based markers in diagnosing significant fibrosis and predicting liver-related events in Asian patients with NAFLD.

Alcohol Use in Liver Transplant Recipients With Alcohol-related Liver Disease: A Comparative Assessment of Relapse Prediction Models.

BACKGROUND: The selection of liver transplant (LT) candidates with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is influenced by the risk of alcohol relapse (AR), yet the ability to predict AR is limited. We evaluate psychosocial factors associated with post-LT AR and compare the performance of high-risk alcoholism risk (HRAR), sustained alcohol use post-LT (SALT), and the Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplantation (SIPAT) scores in predicting relapse. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of ALD patients undergoing LT from 2015 to 2021 at a single US transplant center was performed. Risk factors associated with post-LT AR were evaluated and test characteristics of 3 prediction models were compared. RESULTS: Of 219 ALD LT recipients, 23 (11%) had AR during a median study follow-up of 37.5 mo. On multivariate analysis, comorbid psychiatric illness (odds ratio 5.22) and continued alcohol use after advice from a health care provider (odds ratio 3.8) were found to be significantly associated with post-LT AR. On sensitivity analysis, SIPAT of 30 was optimal on discriminating between ALD LT recipients with and without post-LT AR. SIPAT outperformed both the HRAR and SALT scores (c-statistic 0.67 versus 0.59 and 0.62, respectively) in identifying post-LT AR. However, all scores had poor positive predictive value (<25%). CONCLUSIONS: AR after LT is associated with comorbid psychiatric illness and lack of heeding health care provider advice to abstain from alcohol. Although SIPAT outperformed the HRAR and SALT scores in predicting AR, all are poor predictors. The current tools to predict post-LT AR should not be used to exclude LT candidacy.

Hepatitis C Screening in Post-Baby Boomer Generation Americans: One Size Does Not Fit All.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the impact of access to routine health care, as estimated by health insurance coverage, on hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection prevalence in US adults born after 1965 (post-baby boomer birth cohort [post-BBBC]) and to use the data to formulate strategies to optimize population screening for HCV. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Adult examinees in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with available anti-HCV data were divided into era 1 (1999-2008) and era 2 (2009-2016). The prevalence of HCV infection, as defined by detectable serum HCV RNA, was determined in post-BBBC adults. In low prevalence groups, prescreening modalities were considered to increase the pretest probability. RESULTS: Of 16,966 eligible post-BBBC examinees, 0.5% had HCV infection. In both eras, more than 50% had no insurance. In era 2, HCV prevalence was 0.26% and 0.83% in those with and without insurance, respectively (P<.01). As a prescreening test, low alanine aminotransferase level (<23 U/L in women and 32 U/L in men) would identify 54% of post-BBBC adults with an extremely low (0.02%) HCV prevalence. Based on these data, a tiered approach that tests all uninsured directly for HCV and prescreens the insured with alanine aminotransferase would reduce the number to test by 56.5 million while missing less than 1% infections. CONCLUSION: For HCV elimination, passive "universal" screening in routine health care settings is insufficient, although the efficiency of screening may be improved with alanine aminotransferase prescreening. Importantly, for individuals with limited access to health care, proactive outreach programs for HCV screening are still needed.

Benchmarking clinical risk prediction algorithms with ensemble machine learning: An illustration of the superlearner algorithm for the non-invasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Background and Aims: Ensemble machine learning (ML) methods can combine many individual models into a single 'super' model using an optimal weighted combination. Here we demonstrate how an underutilized ensemble model, the superlearner, can be used as a benchmark for model performance in clinical risk prediction. We illustrate this by implementing a superlearner to predict liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methods: We trained a superlearner based on 23 demographic and clinical variables, with the goal of predicting stage 2 or higher liver fibrosis. The superlearner was trained on data from the Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis - clinical research network observational study (NASH-CRN, n=648), and validated using data from participants in a randomized trial for NASH ('FLINT' trial, n=270) and data from examinees with NAFLD who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, n=1244). We compared the performance of the superlearner with existing models, including FIB-4, NFS, Forns, APRI, BARD and SAFE. Results: In the FLINT and NHANES validation sets, the superlearner (derived from 12 base models) discriminates patients with significant fibrosis from those without well, with AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73-0.84) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79). Among the existing scores considered, the SAFE score performed similarly to the superlearner, and the superlearner and SAFE scores outperformed FIB-4, APRI, Forns, and BARD scores in the validation datasets. A superlearner model derived from 12 base models performed as well as one derived from 90 base models. Conclusions: The superlearner, thought of as the "best-in-class" ML prediction, performed better than most existing models commonly used in practice in detecting fibrotic NASH. The superlearner can be used to benchmark the performance of conventional clinical risk prediction models.

OPTN/SRTR 2021 Annual Data Report: Liver.

In 2021, liver transplant volume continued to grow, with a record 9,234 transplants performed in the United States, 8,665 (93.8%) from deceased donors and 569 (6.2%) from living donors. There were 8,733 (94.6%) adult and 501 (5.4%) pediatric liver transplant recipients. An increase in the number of deceased donor livers corresponded to an increase in the overall transplant rate and shorter waiting times, although still 10.0% of livers that were recovered were not transplanted. Alcohol-associated liver disease was the leading indication for both waitlist registration and liver transplant in adults, outpacing nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, while biliary atresia remained the leading indication for children. Related to allocation policy changes implemented in 2019, the proportion of liver transplants performed for hepatocellular carcinoma has decreased. Among adult candidates listed for liver transplant in 2020, 37.7% received a deceased donor liver transplant within 3 months, 43.8% within 6 months, and 53.3% within 1 year. Pretransplant mortality improved for children following implementation of acuity circle-based distribution. Short-term graft and patient survival outcomes up to 1 year worsened for adult deceased and living donor liver transplant recipients, which is a reversal of previous trends and coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Longer-term outcomes among adult deceased donor liver transplant recipients were unaffected, with overall posttransplant mortality rates of 13.3% at 3 years, 18.6% at 5 years, and 35.9% at 10 years. Pretransplant mortality improved for children following implementation of acuity circle-based distribution and prioritization of pediatric donors to pediatric recipients in 2020. Pediatric living donor recipients had superior graft and patient survival outcomes compared with deceased donor recipients at all time points.

Evidence for Benefits of Early Treatment Initiation for Chronic Hepatitis B.

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is the most common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Antiviral treatment reduces the risk of HCC and mortality; nonetheless, globally in 2019, only 2.2% of CHB patients received treatment. Current international CHB guidelines recommend antiviral treatment only in subsets of patients with clear evidence of liver damage. This contrasts with hepatitis C or HIV where early treatment is recommended in all infected patients, regardless of end-organ damage. This narrative review aims to provide an overview of data on the early initiation of antiviral treatment and its related potential economic impact. Literature searches were performed using PubMed and abstracts from international liver congresses (2019-2021). Data on risk of disease progression and HCC and the impact of antiviral treatment in currently ineligible patients were summarized. Cost-effectiveness data on early antiviral treatment initiation were also collated. Accumulating molecular, clinical, and economic data suggest that early initiation of antiviral treatment could save many lives through HCC prevention in a highly cost-effective manner. In light of these data, we consider several alternative expanded treatment strategies that might further a simplified 'treatment as prevention' approach.

MELD 3.0 for adolescent liver transplant candidates.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Adolescents constitute a unique waitlist cohort that is distinct from younger children. Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0, which was developed in an adult population of liver transplant candidates, is planned to replace MELD-Sodium in the current liver allocation system for both adults and adolescents aged 12-17. We evaluated the predictive performance of MELD-Sodium, MELD 3.0, and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease for 90-day waitlist mortality risk among adolescent liver transplant registrants. APPROACH AND RESULTS: New waitlist registrations for primary liver transplants among individuals aged 12-17 and 18-25 for comparison were identified using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) data from November 17, 2004, to December 31, 2021. The predictive performance of the current and proposed MELD and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease scores was assessed using Harrell's concordance ( c ) statistic. There were 1238 eligible listings for adolescents aged 12-17 and 1740 young adults aged 18-25. In the adolescent group, 90-day survival was 97.8%, compared with 95.9% in those aged 18-25 (log-rank p = 0.005), with no significant differences when stratified by sex or indication. Among adolescents, increasing MELD 3.0 was associated with an increased hazard of mortality (HR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.18-1.37), and the c -statistic for 90-day waitlist survival using MELD 3.0 was 0.893 compared with 0.871 using MELD-Sodium and 0.852 using Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease. CONCLUSIONS: The discriminative ability of MELD 3.0 to rank adolescents according to the risk of death within 90 days was robust. Although MELD 3.0 was initially developed and validated in adults, MELD 3.0 may also improve the prediction of waitlist mortality in adolescents and better represent their urgency for liver transplants.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving tenofovir- vs. entecavir-based regimens: Individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The comparative risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs. entecavir (ETV) remains controversial. In this individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis, we aimed to compare HCC risk between the two drugs and identify subgroups who may benefit more from one treatment than the other. METHODS: Published meta-analyses, electronic databases and congress proceedings were searched to identify eligible studies through January 2021. We compared HCC risk between the two drugs using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with anonymised IPD from treatment-naïve patients with CHB receiving TDF or ETV for ≥1 year. Treatment effect consistency was explored in propensity score matching (PSM), weighting (PSW) and subgroup analyses for age, sex, hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg) positivity, cirrhosis and diabetes status. RESULTS: We included 11 studies from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong involving 42,939 patients receiving TDF (n = 6,979) or ETV (n = 35,960) monotherapy. Patients receiving TDF had significantly lower HCC risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.77; 95% CI 0.61-0.98; p = 0.03). Lower HCC risk with TDF was consistently observed in PSM (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59-0.88; p <0.01) and PSW (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.67-1.03; p = 0.10) analyses and in all subgroups, with statistical significance in the ≥50 years of age (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.58-1.00; p <0.05), male (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.58-0.96; p = 0.02), HBeAg-positive (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49-0.97; p = 0.03) and non-diabetic (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.63-1.00; p <0.05) subgroups. CONCLUSION: TDF was associated with significantly lower HCC risk than ETV in patients with CHB, particularly those with HBeAg positivity. Longer follow-up may be needed to better define incidence differences between the treatments in various subgroups. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Previous aggregate data meta-analyses have reported inconsistent conclusions on the relative effectiveness of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and entecavir in reducing hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This individual patient data meta-analysis on 11 studies involving 42,939 patients from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong suggested that tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-treated patients have a significantly lower hepatocellular carcinoma risk than entecavir-treated patients, which was observed in all subgroups of clinical interest and by different analytical methodologies. These findings should be taken into account by healthcare providers when determining the optimal course of treatment for patients with CHB and may be considered in ensuring that treatment guidelines for CHB remain pertinent.

Mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease above model for end-stage liver disease 3.0 of 40.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since the implementation of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score to determine waitlist priority for liver transplant (LT) in 2002, the score has been capped at 40. Recently, the MELD 3.0 score was proposed to improve upon MELD-Na. Here, we examine waitlist mortality and LT outcomes in patients with MELD 3.0 ≥ 40 to assess the potential impact of uncapping the score. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Adult waitlist registrations for LT from January 2016 to December 2021 were identified in the registry data from the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network. All MELD 3.0 scores were calculated at registration and thereafter. Waitlist mortality for up to 30 days was calculated as well as post-LT survival. There were 54,060 new waitlist registrations during the study period, of whom 2820 (5.2%) had MELD 3.0 ≥ 40 at listing. The 30-day waitlist mortality was high in these patients, yet it increased further in proportion with MELD 3.0 up to a score of 55 with 30-day mortality of 58.3% for MELD 3.0 of 40-44 and 82.4% for ≥50. The multivariable hazard ratio was 1.13 for each point of MELD 3.0, adjusting for several variables including acute-on-chronic liver failure. The number of LT recipients with MELD 40 at transplant increased from 155 in 2002 to 752 in 2021. Posttransplant survival was comparable across MELD strata including MELD of 35-39. CONCLUSION: MELD 3.0 scores beyond 40 are associated with increasing waitlist mortality without adversely affecting posttransplant outcome. Uncapping the MELD score in waitlist candidates may lead to greater survival benefit from LT.

Impact of Pruritus on Quality of Life and Current Treatment Patterns in Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) often suffer with pruritus. We describe the impact of pruritus on quality of life and how it is managed in a real-world cohort. METHODS: TARGET-PBC is a longitudinal observational cohort of patients with PBC across the USA. Data include information from medical records for three years prior to the date of consent up to 5 years of follow-up. Enrolled patients were asked to complete patient-reported outcome surveys: PBC-40, 5-D itch, and the PROMIS fatigue survey. Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to compare differences in symptoms between groups. RESULTS: A total of 211 patients with completed PRO surveys were included in the current study. PRO respondents were compared with non-respondents in the TARGET-PBC population and were broadly similar. Pruritus was reported in 170 patients (81%), with those reporting clinically significant pruritus (30%) scoring worse across each domain of the PBC-40 and 5-D itch, more frequently having cirrhosis, and having significantly greater levels of fatigue. Patients reporting clinically significant pruritus were more likely to receive treatment, but 33% had never received treatment (no itch = 43.9%, mild itch = 38.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of pruritus was high in this population, and those reporting clinically significant pruritus had a higher likelihood of having advanced disease and worse quality of life. However, this study found that pruritus in PBC is under-treated. This may be due in part to ineffectiveness of current treatments, poor tolerance, or the lack of FDA-approved medications for pruritus.

The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score: A tool to detect low-risk NAFLD in primary care.

BACKGROUND: NAFLD is common in primary care. Liver fibrosis stage 2 or higher (≥F2) increases future risk of morbidity and mortality. We developed and validated a score to aid in the initial assessment of liver fibrosis for NAFLD in primary care. METHODS: Data from patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were extracted from the NASH Clinical Research Network observational study ( n = 676). Using logistic regression and machine-learning methods, we constructed prediction models to distinguish ≥F2 from F0/1. The models were tested in participants in a trial ("FLINT," n = 280) and local patients with NAFLD with magnetic resonance elastography data ( n = 130). The final model was applied to examinees in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III ( n = 11,953) to correlate with long-term mortality. RESULTS: A multivariable logistic regression model was selected as the Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score, which consists of age, body mass index, diabetes, platelets, aspartate and alanine aminotransferases, and globulins (total serum protein minus albumin). The model yielded areas under receiver operating characteristic curves ≥0.80 in distinguishing F0/1 from ≥F2 in testing data sets, consistently higher than those of Fibrosis-4 and NAFLD Fibrosis Scores. The negative predictive values in ruling out ≥F2 at SAFE of 0 were 88% and 92% in the two testing sets. In the NHANES III set, survival up to 25 years of subjects with SAFE < 0 was comparable to that of those without steatosis ( p = 0.34), whereas increasing SAFE scores correlated with shorter survival with an adjusted HR of 1.53 ( p < 0.01) for subjects with SAFE > 100. CONCLUSION: The SAFE score, which uses widely available variables to estimate liver fibrosis in patients diagnosed with NAFLD, may be used in primary care to recognize low-risk NAFLD.

Impact of Donor Liver Macrovesicular Steatosis on Deceased Donor Yield and Posttransplant Outcome.

BACKGROUND: The Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) had not traditionally considered biopsy results in risk-adjustment models, yet biopsy results may influence outcomes and thus decisions regarding organ acceptance. METHODS: Using SRTR data, which includes data on all donors, waitlisted candidates, and transplant recipients in the United States, we assessed (1) the impact of macrovesicular steatosis on deceased donor yield (defined as number of livers transplanted per donor) and 1-y posttransplant graft failure and (2) the effect of incorporating this variable into existing SRTR risk-adjustment models. RESULTS: There were 21 559 donors with any recovered organ and 17 801 liver transplant recipients included for analysis. Increasing levels of macrovesicular steatosis on donor liver biopsy predicted lower organ yield: ≥31% macrovesicular steatosis on liver biopsy was associated with 87% to 95% lower odds of utilization, with 55% of these livers being discarded. The hazard ratio for graft failure with these livers was 1.53, compared with those with no pretransplant liver biopsy and 0% to 10% steatosis. There was minimal change on organ procurement organization-specific deceased donor yield or program-specific posttransplant outcome assessments when macrovesicular steatosis was added to the risk-adjustment models. CONCLUSIONS: Donor livers with macrovesicular steatosis are disproportionately not transplanted relative to their risk for graft failure. To avoid undue risk aversion, SRTR now accounts for macrovesicular steatosis in the SRTR risk-adjustment models to help facilitate use of these higher-risk organs. Increased recognition of this variable may also encourage further efforts to standardize the reporting of liver biopsy results.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes in those with primary extrahepatic malignancy and malignant ascites.

BACKGROUND: Malignancy-related ascites accounts for approximately 10% of causes of ascites. Our AIM was to characterize the ascites fluid and correlate clinical outcomes in those with extrahepatic malignancy and ascites. METHODS: 241 subjects with extrahepatic solid tumors and ascites were reviewed from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2019, 119 without liver metastasis and 122 with liver metastasis. RESULTS: Ascites fluid consistent with peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) was most common, 150/241 (62%), followed by fluid reflecting the presence of portal hypertension (PH), 69/241 (29%). 22/241 (9%) had low SAAG and low ascites fluid total protein, with evidence of PC on cytology and or imaging in 20/22. Lung cancer was the most common malignancy in subjects with ascites due to PC at 36/150 (24%), pancreatic cancer was the most common in subjects with ascites with features of PH at 16/69 (23%). Chemotherapy or immunotherapy alone was the most common management approach. Significantly higher 5-year, 3-year and 1-year mortality rate were noted in subjects with evidence of PC on cytology/imaging versus subjects with no evidence of PC, and in subjects with liver metastasis compared to subjects without liver metastasis. Subjects with pancreatic cancer and evidence of PC on cytology/imaging had higher 1 and 5-year mortality rates compared to subjects without PC. CONCLUSIONS: Ascites in solid tumor malignancy is most commonly due to PC. We also observed ascites fluid with characteristics of PH in 29% of subjects. Higher mortality rates in subjects with peritoneal carcinomatosis and liver metastasis were noted. These findings may help inform prognosis and treatment strategies.

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B virus infection in those not meeting criteria for antiviral therapy.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the leading risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to explore the incidence of HCC in a cohort of subjects with HBV and correlate with HBV treatment current guidance. We identified 2846 subjects with HBV over the study period. HCC was diagnosed in 386 of 2846 (14%) subjects; 209 of 386 (54%) were on nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy at time of HCC diagnosis, and 177 of 386 (46%) were not on NA therapy. Of the 177 subjects not on NAs who developed HCC during follow-up, 153 of 177 (86%) had cirrhosis. Within the 177 subjects not on NAs, 158 of 177 (89%) had undetectable HBV DNA, 10 of 177 (6%) had detectable HBV DNA < 2000 IU/L, and 9 of 177 (5%) had HBV DNA > 2000 IU/L. Of those with cirrhosis and undetectable HBV DNA, 115 of 141 had compensated cirrhosis, and 26 of 141 had decompensated cirrhosis. Significant predictors of HCC on time to event analysis included cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] 10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.8-17.5; p < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level (HR 1.004, 95% CI 1.002-1.006; p < 0.001), age (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.03-1.06; p < 0.001), (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.1; p 0.007), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.8; p 0.02). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated the cumulative incidence of HCC in subjects with compensated cirrhosis receiving NA therapy was significantly lower compared to subjects with compensated cirrhosis outside current HBV treatment practice guidance (undetectable HBV DNA) (32% vs. 51%; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Those with untreated compensated cirrhosis with undetectable HBV DNA who do not meet current guidance for treatment had higher rates of HCC than those with compensated cirrhosis and suppressed HBV DNA by NA therapy. This study highlights the need for earlier diagnosis and treatment of HBV.