A Benford's law-based framework to determine the threshold of occurrence sites for species distribution modelling from ecological monitoring databases.

The use of data-based species distribution models (SDMs) has increased significantly in recent years. However, studies of determining the minimum requirements of occurrence sites from ecological monitoring datasets used in species distribution modelling remain insufficient. Therefore, this study proposed a framework to determine the threshold of minimum occurrence sites for SDMs by assessing compliance with Benford's law. The compliance test verified that the national-scale freshwater fish monitoring dataset was natural and reliable. Results derived from true skill statistics (TSS) determined the minimum number of occurrence sites for reliable species distribution modelling was 20 with a TSS value of 0.793 and an overall accuracy of 0.804. The Benford compliance test has shown to be a useful tool for swift and efficient evaluation of the reliability of species occurrence datasets, or the determination of the threshold of occurrence sites before species distribution modelling. Further studies regarding the evaluation of this method's transferability to other species and validation using SDM performance are required. Overall, the framework proposed in this study demonstrates that Benford compliance test applied to species monitoring datasets can be used to derive a universal and model-independent minimum occurrence threshold for SDMs.

The potential invasion into North America and Europe by non-native mosquito, Aedes koreicus (Diptera: Culicidae).

Aedes koreicus (Edward, 1917) (Diptera: Culicidae), a mosquito species native to East Asia, has spread to parts of Europe and Central Asia since 2008. The species shares ecological characteristics with Aedes japonicus (Theobald, 1901) (Diptera: Culicidae), which has already successfully invaded and established in North America and Europe. Given these similarities, it is plausible that Ae. koreicus may also invade North America in the future. However, the invasion of Ae. koreicus may be masked or have delayed detection due to their similar morphologies with Ae. japonicus. This study highlights the potential risks of invasion of Ae. koreicus into North America, especially in the northeastern United States, and for further expansion in Europe. We used the maximum entropy model to identify areas with a high likelihood of presence in North America and Europe using comprehensive occurrence records from East Asia, Central Asia, and Europe. We have identified 15 additional countries in Europe and 7 states in the United States that will likely have suitable environments for Ae. koreicus. Additionally, we reviewed the morphological characteristics of Ae. koreicus and Ae. japonicus and provided morphological keys to distinguish the 2 species. Morphological results contradicting previous studies suggested that finding the origin by morphological comparison between Ae. koreicus populations may need re-evaluation. The information presented here will be useful for researchers and public health professionals in high-risk areas to be informed about morphological characteristics to distinguish Ae. koreicus from similar-looking Ae. japonicus. These tools will allow more careful monitoring of the potential introduction of this highly invasive species.