Unaccounted uncertainty from qPCR efficiency estimates entails uncontrolled false positive rates.

BACKGROUND: Accurate adjustment for the amplification efficiency (AE) is an important part of real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) experiments. The most commonly used correction strategy is to estimate the AE by dilution experiments and use this as a plug-in when efficiency correcting the Δ Δ C q . Currently, it is recommended to determine the AE with high precision as this plug-in approach does not account for the AE uncertainty, implicitly assuming an infinitely precise AE estimate. Determining the AE with such precision, however, requires tedious laboratory work and vast amounts of biological material. Violation of the assumption leads to overly optimistic standard errors of the Δ Δ C q , confidence intervals, and p-values which ultimately increase the type I error rate beyond the expected significance level. As qPCR is often used for validation it should be a high priority to account for the uncertainty of the AE estimate and thereby properly bounding the type I error rate and achieve the desired significance level. RESULTS: We suggest and benchmark different methods to obtain the standard error of the efficiency adjusted Δ Δ C q using the statistical delta method, Monte Carlo integration, or bootstrapping. Our suggested methods are founded in a linear mixed effects model (LMM) framework, but the problem and ideas apply in all qPCR experiments. The methods and impact of the AE uncertainty are illustrated in three qPCR applications and a simulation study. In addition, we validate findings suggesting that MGST1 is differentially expressed between high and low abundance culture initiating cells in multiple myeloma and that microRNA-127 is differentially expressed between testicular and nodal lymphomas. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude, that the commonly used efficiency corrected quantities disregard the uncertainty of the AE, which can drastically impact the standard error and lead to increased false positive rates. Our suggestions show that it is possible to easily perform statistical inference of Δ Δ C q , whilst properly accounting for the AE uncertainty and better controlling the false positive rate.

Predicting response to multidrug regimens in cancer patients using cell line experiments and regularised regression models.

BACKGROUND: Patients suffering from cancer are often treated with a range of chemotherapeutic agents, but the treatment efficacy varies greatly between patients. Based on recent popularisation of regularised regression models the goal of this study was to establish workflows for pharmacogenomic predictors of response to standard multidrug regimens using baseline gene expression data and origin specific cell lines. The proposed workflows are tested on diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with R-CHOP first-line therapy. METHODS: First, B-cell cancer cell lines were tested successively for resistance towards the chemotherapeutic components of R-CHOP: cyclophosphamide (C), doxorubicin (H), and vincristine (O). Second, baseline gene expression data were obtained for each cell line before treatment. Third, regularised multivariate regression models with cross-validated tuning parameters were used to generate classifier and predictor based resistance gene signatures (REGS) for the combination and individual chemotherapeutic drugs C, H, and O. Fourth, each developed REGS was used to assign resistance levels to individual patients in three clinical cohorts. RESULTS: Both classifier and predictor based REGS, for the combination CHO, were of prognostic value. For patients classified as resistant towards CHO the risk of progression was 2.33 (95% CI: 1.6, 3.3) times greater than for those classified as sensitive. Similarly, an increase in the predicted CHO resistance index of 10 was related to a 22% (9%, 36%) increased risk of progression. Furthermore, the REGS classifier performed significantly better than the REGS predictor. CONCLUSIONS: The regularised multivariate regression models provide a flexible workflow for drug resistance studies with promising potential. However, the gene expressions defining the REGSs should be functionally validated and correlated to known biomarkers to improve understanding of molecular mechanisms of drug resistance.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma classification system that associates normal B-cell subset phenotypes with prognosis.

PURPOSE: Current diagnostic tests for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma use the updated WHO criteria based on biologic, morphologic, and clinical heterogeneity. We propose a refined classification system based on subset-specific B-cell-associated gene signatures (BAGS) in the normal B-cell hierarchy, hypothesizing that it can provide new biologic insight and diagnostic and prognostic value. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We combined fluorescence-activated cell sorting, gene expression profiling, and statistical modeling to generate BAGS for naive, centrocyte, centroblast, memory, and plasmablast B cells from normal human tonsils. The impact of BAGS-assigned subtyping was analyzed using five clinical cohorts (treated with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone [CHOP], n = 270; treated with rituximab plus CHOP [R-CHOP], n = 869) gathered across geographic regions, time eras, and sampling methods. The analysis estimated subtype frequencies and drug-specific resistance and included a prognostic meta-analysis of patients treated with first-line R-CHOP therapy. RESULTS: Similar BAGS subtype frequencies were assigned across 1,139 samples from five different cohorts. Among R-CHOP-treated patients, BAGS assignment was significantly associated with overall survival and progression-free survival within the germinal center B-cell-like subclass; the centrocyte subtype had a superior prognosis compared with the centroblast subtype. In agreement with the observed therapeutic outcome, centrocyte subtypes were estimated as being less resistant than the centroblast subtype to doxorubicin and vincristine. The centroblast subtype had a complex genotype, whereas the centrocyte subtype had high TP53 mutation and insertion/deletion frequencies and expressed LMO2, CD58, and stromal-1-signature and major histocompatibility complex class II-signature genes, which are known to have a positive impact on prognosis. CONCLUSION: Further development of a diagnostic platform using BAGS-assigned subtypes may allow pathogenetic studies to improve disease management.

Proof of the concept to use a malignant B cell line drug screen strategy for identification and weight of melphalan resistance genes in multiple myeloma.

In a conceptual study of drug resistance we have used a preclinical model of malignant B-cell lines by combining drug induced growth inhibition and gene expression profiling. In the current report a melphalan resistance profile of 19 genes were weighted by microarray data from the MRC Myeloma IX trial and time to progression following high dose melphalan, to generate an individual melphalan resistance index. The resistance index was subsequently validated in the HOVON65/GMMG-HD4 trial data set to prove the concept. Biologically, the assigned resistance indices were differentially distributed among translocations and cyclin D expression classes. Clinically, the 25% most melphalan resistant, the intermediate 50% and the 25% most sensitive patients had a median progression free survival of 18, 32 and 28 months, respectively (log-rank P-value  = 0.05). Furthermore, the median overall survival was 45 months for the resistant group and not reached for the intermediate and sensitive groups (log-rank P-value  = 0.003) following 38 months median observation. In a multivariate analysis, correcting for age, sex and ISS-staging, we found a high resistance index to be an independent variable associated with inferior progression free survival and overall survival. This study provides clinical proof of concept to use in vitro drug screen for identification of melphalan resistance gene signatures for future functional analysis.