Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming.

The quality of lake ice is of uppermost importance for ice safety and under-ice ecology, but its temporal and spatial variability is largely unknown. Here we conducted a coordinated lake ice quality sampling campaign across the Northern Hemisphere during one of the warmest winters since 1880 and show that lake ice during 2020/2021 commonly consisted of unstable white ice, at times contributing up to 100% to the total ice thickness. We observed that white ice increased over the winter season, becoming thickest and constituting the largest proportion of the ice layer towards the end of the ice cover season when fatal winter drownings occur most often and light limits the growth and reproduction of primary producers. We attribute the dominance of white ice before ice-off to air temperatures varying around the freezing point, a condition which occurs more frequently during warmer winters. Thus, under continued global warming, the prevalence of white ice is likely to substantially increase during the critical period before ice-off, for which we adjusted commonly used equations for human ice safety and light transmittance through ice.

Long-term ice phenology records spanning up to 578 years for 78 lakes around the Northern Hemisphere.

In recent decades, lakes have experienced unprecedented ice loss with widespread ramifications for winter ecological processes. The rapid loss of ice, resurgence of winter biology, and proliferation of remote sensing technologies, presents a unique opportunity to integrate disciplines to further understand the broad spatial and temporal patterns in ice loss and its consequences. Here, we summarize ice phenology records for 78 lakes in 12 countries across North America, Europe, and Asia to permit the inclusion and harmonization of in situ ice phenology observations in future interdisciplinary studies. These ice records represent some of the longest climate observations directly collected by people. We highlight the importance of applying the same definition of ice-on and ice-off within a lake across the time-series, regardless of how the ice is observed, to broaden our understanding of ice loss across vast spatial and temporal scales.

Global data set of long-term summertime vertical temperature profiles in 153 lakes.

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have led to long-term changes in the thermal structure, including surface temperatures, deepwater temperatures, and vertical thermal gradients, in many lakes around the world. Though many studies highlight warming of surface water temperatures in lakes worldwide, less is known about long-term trends in full vertical thermal structure and deepwater temperatures, which have been changing less consistently in both direction and magnitude. Here, we present a globally-expansive data set of summertime in-situ vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, with one time series beginning as early as 1894. We also compiled lake geographic, morphometric, and water quality variables that can influence vertical thermal structure through a variety of potential mechanisms in these lakes. These long-term time series of vertical temperature profiles and corresponding lake characteristics serve as valuable data to help understand changes and drivers of lake thermal structure in a time of rapid global and ecological change.

Earlier winter/spring runoff and snowmelt during warmer winters lead to lower summer chlorophyll-a in north temperate lakes.

Winter conditions, such as ice cover and snow accumulation, are changing rapidly at northern latitudes and can have important implications for lake processes. For example, snowmelt in the watershed-a defining feature of lake hydrology because it delivers a large portion of annual nutrient inputs-is becoming earlier. Consequently, earlier and a shorter duration of snowmelt are expected to affect annual phytoplankton biomass. To test this hypothesis, we developed an index of runoff timing based on the date when 50% of cumulative runoff between January 1 and May 31 had occurred. The runoff index was computed using stream discharge for inflows, outflows, or for flows from nearby streams for 41 lakes in Europe and North America. The runoff index was then compared with summer chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton biomass) across 5-53 years for each lake. Earlier runoff generally corresponded to lower summer Chl-a. Furthermore, years with earlier runoff also had lower winter/spring runoff magnitude, more protracted runoff, and earlier ice-out. We examined several lake characteristics that may regulate the strength of the relationship between runoff timing and summer Chl-a concentrations; however, our tested covariates had little effect on the relationship. Date of ice-out was not clearly related to summer Chl-a concentrations. Our results indicate that ongoing changes in winter conditions may have important consequences for summer phytoplankton biomass and production.

Widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakes.

The concentration of dissolved oxygen in aquatic systems helps to regulate biodiversity1,2, nutrient biogeochemistry3, greenhouse gas emissions4, and the quality of drinking water5. The long-term declines in dissolved oxygen concentrations in coastal and ocean waters have been linked to climate warming and human activity6,7, but little is known about the changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations in lakes. Although the solubility of dissolved oxygen decreases with increasing water temperatures, long-term lake trajectories are difficult to predict. Oxygen losses in warming lakes may be amplified by enhanced decomposition and stronger thermal stratification8,9 or oxygen may increase as a result of enhanced primary production10. Here we analyse a combined total of 45,148 dissolved oxygen and temperature profiles and calculate trends for 393 temperate lakes that span 1941 to 2017. We find that a decline in dissolved oxygen is widespread in surface and deep-water habitats. The decline in surface waters is primarily associated with reduced solubility under warmer water temperatures, although dissolved oxygen in surface waters increased in a subset of highly productive warming lakes, probably owing to increasing production of phytoplankton. By contrast, the decline in deep waters is associated with stronger thermal stratification and loss of water clarity, but not with changes in gas solubility. Our results suggest that climate change and declining water clarity have altered the physical and chemical environment of lakes. Declines in dissolved oxygen in freshwater are 2.75 to 9.3 times greater than observed in the world's oceans6,7 and could threaten essential lake ecosystem services2,3,5,11.

Patterns of CO2 concentration and inorganic carbon limitation of phytoplankton biomass in agriculturally eutrophic lakes.

Lake eutrophication is a pervasive problem globally, particularly serious in agricultural and densely populated areas. Whenever nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus do not limit phytoplankton growth directly, high growth rates will rapidly lead to biomass increases causing self-shading and light-limitation, and eventually CO2 depletion. The paradigm of phytoplankton limitation by nutrients and light is so pervasively established, that the lack of nutrient limitation is ordinarily interpreted as sufficient evidence for the condition of light limitation, without considering the possibility of limitation by inorganic carbon. Here, we firstly evaluated how frequently CO2 undersaturation occurs in a set of eutrophic lakes in the Pampa plains. Our results confirm that conditions of CO2 undersaturation develop much more frequently (yearly 34%, summer 44%) in these agriculturally impacted lakes than in deep, temperate lakes in forested watersheds. Secondly, we used Generalized Additive Models to fit trends in CO2 concentration considering three drivers: total incident irradiance, chlorophyll a concentration, and lake depth; in eight multi-year datasets from eutrophic lakes from Europe, North and South America, Asia and New Zealand. CO2 depletion was more often observed at high irradiance levels, and shallow water. CO2 depletion also occurred at high chlorophyll concentration. Finally, we identified occurrences of light- and carbon-limitation at the whole-lake scale. The different responses of chlorophyll a and CO2 allowed us to develop criteria for detecting conditions of CO2 limitation. For the first time, we provided whole-lake evidence of carbon limitation of phytoplankton biomass. CO2 increases and eutrophication represent two major and converging environmental problems that have additive and contrasting effects, promoting phytoplankton, and also leading to carbon depletion. Their interactions deserve further exploration and imaginative approaches to deal with their effects.

Increased winter drownings in ice-covered regions with warmer winters.

Winter activities on ice are culturally important for many countries, yet they constitute a high safety risk depending upon the stability of the ice. Because consistently cold periods are required to form stable and thick ice, warmer winters could degrade ice conditions and increase the likelihood of falling through the ice. This study provides the first large-scale assessment of winter drowning from 10 Northern Hemisphere countries. We documented over 4000 winter drowning events. Winter drownings increased exponentially in regions with warmer winters when air temperatures neared 0°C. The largest number of drownings occurred when winter air temperatures were between -5°C and 0°C, when ice is less stable, and also in regions where indigenous traditions and livelihood require extended time on ice. Rates of drowning were greatest late in the winter season when ice stability declines. Children and adults up to the age of 39 were at the highest risk of winter drownings. Beyond temperature, differences in cultures, regulations, and human behaviours can be important additional risk factors. Our findings indicate the potential for increased human mortality with warmer winter air temperatures. Incorporating drowning prevention plans would improve adaptation strategies to a changing climate.

Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes.

Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970-2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade-1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m-3 decade-1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade-1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from - 0.68 °C decade-1 to + 0.65 °C decade-1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

Stream Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loads Are Differentially Affected by Storm Events and the Difference May Be Exacerbated by Conservation Tillage.

Storm events disproportionately mobilize dissolved phosphorus (P) compared to nitrogen (N), contributing to reduction in load N:P. In agricultural watersheds, conservation tillage may lead to even further declines in load N:P due to dissolved P accumulation in the top soil layers. Due to an increase in this management activity, we were interested in the impacts of conservation tillage on N and P loads during storm events. Using a 20 year data set of nutrient loads to a hypereutrophic reservoir, we observed disproportionately increasing P loads relative to base flow during storm events, whereas N loads were proportional to discharge. We also observed a change in that relationship, i.e., even greater P load relative to base flow with more conservation tillage in the watershed. This suggests conservation tillage may contribute to significantly reduced N:P loads during storms with potential implications for the water quality of receiving water bodies.

Ecological consequences of long-term browning in lakes.

Increases in terrestrially-derived dissolved organic matter (DOM) have led to the browning of inland waters across regions of northeastern North America and Europe. Short-term experimental and comparative studies highlight the important ecological consequences of browning. These range from transparency-induced increases in thermal stratification and oxygen (O2) depletion to changes in pelagic food web structure and alteration of the important role of inland waters in the global carbon cycle. However, multi-decadal studies that document the net ecological consequences of long-term browning are lacking. Here we show that browning over a 27 year period in two lakes of differing transparency resulted in fundamental changes in vertical habitat gradients and food web structure, and that these responses were stronger in the more transparent lake. Surface water temperatures increased by 2-3 °C in both lakes in the absence of any changes in air temperature. Water transparency to ultraviolet (UV) radiation showed a fivefold decrease in the more transparent lake. The primary zooplankton grazers decreased, and in the more transparent lake were largely replaced by a two trophic level zooplankton community. These findings provide new insights into the net effects of the complex and contrasting mechanisms that underlie the ecosystem consequences of browning.

Nutrient cycling by fish supports relatively more primary production as lake productivity increases.

Animals can be important in nutrient cycling in particular ecosystems, but few studies have examined how this importance varies along environmental gradients. In this study we quantified the nutrient cycling role of an abundant detritivorous fish species, the gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum), in reservoir ecosystems along a gradient of ecosystem productivity. Gizzard shad feed mostly on sediment detritus and excrete sediment-derived nutrients into the water column, thereby mediating a cross-habitat translocation of nutrients to phytoplankton. We quantified nitrogen and phosphorus cycling (excretion) rates of gizzard shad, as well as nutrient demand by phytoplankton, in seven lakes over a four-year period (16 lake-years). The lakes span a gradient of watershed land use (the relative amounts of land used for agriculture vs. forest) and productivity. As the watersheds of these lakes became increasingly dominated by agricultural land, primary production rates, lake trophic state indicators (total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations), and nutrient flux through gizzard shad populations all increased. Nutrient cycling by gizzard shad supported a substantial proportion of primary production in these ecosystems, and this proportion increased as watershed agriculture (and ecosystem productivity) increased. In the four productive lakes with agricultural watersheds (>78% agricultural land), gizzard shad supported on average 51% of phytoplankton primary production (range 27-67%). In contrast, in the three relatively unproductive lakes in forested or mixed-land-use watersheds (>47% forest, <52% agricultural land), gizzard shad supported 18% of primary production (range 14-23%). Thus, along a gradient of forested to agricultural landscapes, both watershed nutrient inputs and nutrient translocation by gizzard shad increase, but our data indicate that the importance of nutrient translocation by gizzard shad increases more rapidly. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that watersheds and gizzard shad jointly regulate primary production in reservoir ecosystems.