Citizen silence: Missed opportunities in citizen science.

Citizen science is personal. Participation is contingent on the citizens' connection to a topic or to interpersonal relationships meaningful to them. But from the peer-reviewed literature, scientists appear to have an acquisitive data-centered relationship with citizens. This has spurred ethical and pragmatic criticisms of extractive relationships with citizen scientists. We suggest five practical steps to shift citizen-science research from extractive to relational, reorienting the research process and providing reciprocal benefits to researchers and citizen scientists. By virtue of their interests and experience within their local environments, citizen scientists have expertise that, if engaged, can improve research methods and product design decisions. To boost the value of scientific outputs to society and participants, citizen-science research teams should rethink how they engage and value volunteers.

The role of abiotic and biotic factors in the unequal body shape diversification of a Gondwanan fish radiation (Otophysi: Characiformes).

Understanding why some clades diversify greatly while others do not is a major goal of evolutionary biology. Both abiotic and biotic factors are important in driving unequal morphological diversity across the tree of life. However, few studies have quantified how abiotic habitat and community composition differences influence unequal morphological diversification in spatiotemporally diffuse radiations. We use geometric morphometrics, abiotic habitat data generated by Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analyses, evolutionary simulations, and phylogenetic comparative methods to determine whether random evolution, habitat variation, competition for niches, or a combination of factors influenced the unequal body shape diversity of a Gondwanan freshwater fish radiation. We find that Neotropical characiform lineages, which exhibit substantially more body shape diversity than their African counterparts, occupy significantly more slope and elevation habitats than African lineages. Differences in habitat occupation between the continental radiations occur through a combination of likely competition with cypriniform fishes in Africa restricting access to higher slope and elevation habitats and significantly more low-elevation and slope habitats available in the Neotropics. Our findings suggest that spatiotemporally widespread radiations, like Characiformes, do not diversify across homogenized habitats and biotic assemblages, with differences in community structure and physical habitat playing an important role in driving unequal morphological diversification.

Long-term ecological research in freshwaters enabled by regional biodiversity collections, stable isotope analysis, and environmental informatics.

Biodiversity collections are experiencing a renaissance fueled by the intersection of informatics, emerging technologies, and the extended use and interpretation of specimens and archived databases. In this article, we explore the potential for transformative research in ecology integrating biodiversity collections, stable isotope analysis (SIA), and environmental informatics. Like genomic DNA, SIA provides a common currency interpreted in the context of biogeochemical principles. Integration of SIA data across collections allows for evaluation of long-term ecological change at local to continental scales. Challenges including the analysis of sparse samples, a lack of information about baseline isotopic composition, and the effects of preservation remain, but none of these challenges is insurmountable. The proposed research framework interfaces with existing databases and observatories to provide benchmarks for retrospective studies and ecological forecasting. Collections and SIA add historical context to fundamental questions in freshwater ecological research, reference points for ecosystem monitoring, and a means of quantitative assessment for ecosystem restoration.

Climate predicts wildland fire extent across China.

Wildland fire extent varies seasonally and interannually in response to climatic and landscape-level drivers, yet predicting wildfires remains a challenge. Existing linear models that characterize climate and wildland fire relationships fail to account for non-stationary and non-linear associations, thus limiting prediction accuracy. To account for non-stationary and non-linear effects, we use time-series climate and wildfire extent data from across China with unit root methods, thus providing an approach for improved wildfire prediction. Results from this approach suggest that wildland area burned is sensitive to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and maximum temperature changes over short and long-term scenarios. Moreover, repeated fires constrain system variability resulting in non-stationarity responses. We conclude that an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to dynamic simulation models better elucidates interactions between climate and wildfire compared to more commonly used linear models. We suggest that this approach will provide insights into a better understanding of complex ecological relationships and represents a significant step toward the development of guidance for regional planners hoping to address climate-driven increases in wildfire incidence and impacts.

Integrating land cover, point source pollution, and watershed hydrologic processes data to understand the distribution of microplastics in riverbed sediments.

Microplastics are emerging contaminants ubiquitously distributed in the environment, with rivers acting as their main mode of transport in surface freshwater systems. However, the relative importance of hydrologic processes and source-related variables for benthic microplastic distribution in river sediments is not well understood. We therefore sampled and characterized microplastics in river sediments across the Meramec River watershed (eastern Missouri, United States) and applied a hydrologic modeling approach to estimate the relative importance of river discharge, river sediment load, land cover, and point source pollution sites to understand how these environmental factors affect microplastic distribution in benthic sediments. We found that the best model for the Meramec River watershed includes both source-related variables (land cover and point sources) but excludes both hydrologic transport-related variables (discharge and sediment load). Prior work has drawn similar and dissimilar conclusions regarding the importance of anthropogenic versus hydrologic variables in microplastic distribution, though we acknowledge that comparisons are limited by methodological differences. Nevertheless, our findings highlight the complexity of microplastic pollution in freshwater systems. While generating a universal predictive model might be challenging to achieve, our study demonstrates the potential of using a modeling approach to determine the controlling factors for benthic microplastic distribution in fluvial systems.

Assessing the potential of riparian reforestation to facilitate watershed climate adaptation.

Transformations of forested areas to agricultural and urban uses are known to degrade freshwater ecosystems, in part, because of increased surface runoff and soil erosion. Changes in climate are expected to exacerbate these impacts, particularly through increases and intensification of precipitation events during various times of the year. While decreases in greenhouse gas emissions are ultimately necessary to minimize changes in climate, best management practices (BMPs), such as reforestation, can serve as watershed climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of changes in air temperature and precipitation. The Meramec River Basin (MRB) in eastern Missouri is of economic and recreational importance and supports high levels of biodiversity. While much of the MRB is forested, various land transformations are increasing sediment inputs throughout the basin, and these contributions are expected to increase as climate changes. To address the potential of riparian reforestation to serve as a climate adaptation strategy in the MRB, we developed a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to simulate streamflow and sediment transport throughout the basin. We then used model outputs characterizing spatial variation in sediment yields to identify critical source areas (CSAs) at the subbasin level. The application of a riparian buffer BMP was simulated in each CSA to quantify the effectiveness of this strategy in reducing sediment for contemporary conditions (1990-2009) as well as under three future climate scenarios for two time periods, 2040-2059 (mid-century) and 2080-2099 (late-century). For the contemporary period, the simulated addition of a riparian buffer BMP resulted in a projected 12.1% average reduction in surface sediment yield among CSAs. For the mid-century projection, subbasin surface sediment output is projected to increase by an average of 277.5% and 221.8% for the climate change scenario and the climate change + BMP scenario, respectively. In the late-century, respective increases in sediment for CSAs are estimated to be, on average, 690.7% and 528.3% for the climate change scenario and the climate change + BMP scenario. Results suggest that surface sediment yields will increase with climate change even with riparian buffer BMP applications. While adding a riparian buffer can potentially reduce sediment outputs, the reduction, on average, is likely inadequate to fully offset the impacts from changes in climate.

Differential effects of the urban heat island on thermal responses of freshwater fishes from unmanaged and managed systems.

A lack of understanding exists regarding how freshwater species will respond to increases in temperature associated with ongoing changes in climate. Non-urban to urban thermal gradients generated by urban heat islands can serve as models to characterize the effects of relatively consistent increases in temperature on freshwater ecosystems over several decades. This study investigates the apparent responses of two freshwater fish species, Campostoma anomalum (Central Stoneroller) and Lepomis macrochirus (Bluegill), to directional changes in temperature over the past century across the non-urban to urban gradient in the Saint Louis, Missouri region in the central United States. Differences in air temperature across this gradient have increased by approximately 3 °C since 1920. Critical thermal maximum (CTMax) assays were conducted on individuals from fish populations across this gradient from either streams (C. anomalum) or ponds (L. macrochirus) to assess whether thermal tolerance is associated with water temperature among sites. According to expectations based on the effect of an urban heat island, maximum water temperature at stream sites was positively correlated with percent urban landcover around the sites. Moreover, CTMax among populations of C. anomalum was positively correlated with maximum water temperature at each site, suggesting that this species has likely responded to increases in temperature over the past several decades. There was no relationship between percent urban landcover and maximum water temperature in the pond systems. There was also no relationship between CTMax and maximum water temperature among L. macrochirus populations. The pond systems and populations of L. macrochirus are highly managed, which may limit local physical and biological responses to increases in air temperature. Results suggest that freshwater habitats in urban environments and the species inhabiting these areas are responding differently to recent increases in air temperature, highlighting the complexity of the physical and biological components of these systems.

Comparison of Contributions to Chloride in Urban Stormwater from Winter Brine and Rock Salt Application.

The use of road salt to increase roadway safety during winter storms releases high concentrations of chloride into urban and suburban stormwater. This stormwater flows into nearby streams, resulting in concentrations of chloride that can exceed water quality standards intended to protect aquatic life. As chloride pollution is not readily filtered by soil or plants, mitigation will require reductions in the amount of salt used. In this study, cities in St. Louis County, Missouri, U.S., were used as a test case for brining as a best management practice (BMP) to reduce salt use relative to the standard practice of spreading solid rock salt. The practice of brining involves the dissolution of road salt in water and the application of the resulting brine solution to roadways in advance of a forecasted winter storm. During the winters of 2016-2017 and 2017-2018, stormwater runoff from residential areas was monitored in paired cities to determine if the availability of brining as a BMP for salt application on residential roads would result in a decrease in chloride in stormwater and, therefore, a decrease in chloride reaching urban streams. The use of brining by city governments resulted in a 45% average reduction of chloride loads conveyed to streams, demonstrating that brining is a highly viable BMP for local municipal operations.

Hydrology induces intraspecific variation in freshwater fish morphology under contemporary and future climate scenarios.

Predicting future changes in habitat-associated species traits is an important step in understanding the ecological and evolutionary consequences of environmental change. However, models projecting phenotypic responses to future climate change typically assume populations will respond similarly across the range of a species, while local adaptation and spatial variation in environmental changes are rarely considered. In this study, among-population phenotypic variability was coupled with geographic variation in anticipated hydrologic changes to examine patterns of population-level phenotypic changes expected under future climatic change. To estimate phenotypic responses to watershed hydrology, phenotype-environment associations between body shape and contemporary streamflow were quantified among populations of six species of fishes (Cyprinidae). Future streamflow estimates (2070-2099) were then used to project body shapes within populations, assuming the same phenotype-environment relationships. All species exhibited significant associations between body shape and contemporary streamflow discharge and variability. However, these relationships were not consistent, even among species occupying similar vertical positions in the water column. When these phenotype-environment relationships were projected into future streamflow conditions, populations are not expected to respond uniformly across the species' ranges, and all but one species exhibited projected morphologies outside of the current range of morphological variation. These findings suggest local adaptation and spatial heterogeneity in environmental changes interact to influence variation in the degree of expected phenotypic responses to climate change at both the species and population level.

Natural and managed watersheds show similar responses to recent climate change.

Changes in climate are driving an intensification of the hydrologic cycle and leading to alterations of natural streamflow regimes. Human disturbances such as dams, land-cover change, and water diversions are thought to obscure climate signals in hydrologic systems. As a result, most studies of changing hydroclimatic conditions are limited to areas with natural streamflow. Here, we compare trends in observed streamflow from natural and human-modified watersheds in the United States and Canada for the 1981-2015 water years to evaluate whether comparable responses to climate change are present in both systems. We find that patterns and magnitudes of trends in median daily streamflow, daily streamflow variability, and daily extremes in human-modified watersheds are similar to those from nearby natural watersheds. Streamflow in both systems show negative trends throughout the southern and western United States and positive trends throughout the northeastern United States, the northern Great Plains, and southern prairies of Canada. The trends in both natural and human-modified watersheds are linked to local trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, demonstrating that water management and land-cover change have not substantially altered the effects of climate change on human-modified watersheds compared with nearby natural watersheds.

Appropriate application of information from biodiversity databases is critical when investigating species distributions and diversity: a comment on Dallas et al. ().

Using data from biodiversity informatics resources, Dallas et al. (Ecol. Lett., 20, 2017, 1526-1533) suggested limited relationships between climate and local abundance among several taxonomic groups. Investigation of a subset of these data suggests that their results may be misleading due to inappropriate application of the biodiversity data.

Phylogeny and genetic variation within the widely distributed Bluntnose Minnow, Pimephales notatus (Cyprinidae), in North America.

This study represents a phylogenetic analysis of Pimephales notatus, a widely distributed North American cyprinid fish species, using one mitochondrial (cytb) and two nuclear (S7 and Rag1) genes. Despite the broad geographic distribution of this species that includes independent basins, results suggest a largely drainage-independent genetic structure. Results reveal a well-supported lineage in the Ozark Highlands, which is highly divergent from the remaining populations and may represent a long-term isolated lineage that should be considered as a separate conservation and management unit. All other remaining populations comprised a widely distributed lineage, covering most of the distribution for the species (from the Red River and tributaries of the Great Lakes in the north to the lower Mississippi and Mobile basin in the south, and from the Missouri River in the west to the Chesapeake and Albemarle Sound basins in the east). Phylogenetic, genetic diversity, and biogeographical data suggest that this wide-ranging lineage could have experienced a recent expansion to northern areas where populations exhibit little genetic variation. Results from molecular analyses reveal a distinctive lineage in the Ozarks and suggest that there is need for morphological analyses within P. notatus to determine its taxonomic status.

Climate and local abundance in freshwater fishes.

Identifying factors regulating variation in numbers of individuals among populations across a species' distribution is a fundamental goal in ecology. A common prediction, often referred to as the abundant-centre hypothesis, suggests that abundance is highest near the centre of a species' range. However, because of the primary focus on the geographical position of a population, this framework provides little insight into the environmental factors regulating local abundance. While range-wide variation in population abundance associated with environmental conditions has been investigated in terrestrial species, the relationship between climate and local abundance in freshwater taxa across species' distributions is not well understood. We used GIS-based temperature and precipitation data to determine the relationships between climatic conditions and range-wide variation in local abundance for 19 species of North American freshwater fishes. Climate predicted a portion of the variation in local abundance among populations for 18 species. In addition, the relationship between climatic conditions and local abundance varied among species, which is expected as lineages partition the environment across geographical space. The influence of local habitat quality on species persistence is well documented; however, our results also indicate the importance of climate in regulating population sizes across a species geographical range, even in aquatic taxa.

Evolution of phenotype-environment associations by genetic responses to selection and phenotypic plasticity in a temporally autocorrelated environment.

Covariation between population-mean phenotypes and environmental variables, sometimes termed a "phenotype-environment association" (PEA), can result from phenotypic plasticity, genetic responses to natural selection, or both. PEAs can potentially provide information on the evolutionary dynamics of a particular set of populations, but this requires a full theoretical characterization of PEAs and their evolution. Here, we derive formulas for the expected PEA in a temporally fluctuating environment for a quantitative trait with a linear reaction norm. We compare several biologically relevant scenarios, including constant versus evolving plasticity, and the situation in which an environment affects both development and selection but at different time periods. We find that PEAs are determined not only by biological factors (e.g., magnitude of plasticity, genetic variation), but also environmental factors, such as the association between the environments of development and of selection, and in some cases the level of temporal autocorrelation. We also describe how a PEA can be used to estimate the relationship between an optimum phenotype and an environmental variable (i.e., the environmental sensitivity of selection), an important parameter for determining the extinction risk of populations experiencing environmental change. We illustrate this ability using published data on the predator-induced morphological responses of tadpoles to predation risk.

Niche variability and its consequences for species distribution modeling.

When species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how a species will respond to environmental change, an important assumption is that the environmental niche of the species is conserved over evolutionary time-scales. Empirical studies conducted at ecological time-scales, however, demonstrate that the niche of some species can vary in response to environmental change. We use habitat and locality data of five species of stream fishes collected across seasons to examine the effects of niche variability on the accuracy of projections from Maxent, a popular SDM. We then compare these predictions to those from an alternate method of creating SDM projections in which a transformation of the environmental data to similar scales is applied. The niche of each species varied to some degree in response to seasonal variation in environmental variables, with most species shifting habitat use in response to changes in canopy cover or flow rate. SDMs constructed from the original environmental data accurately predicted the occurrences of one species across all seasons and a subset of seasons for two other species. A similar result was found for SDMs constructed from the transformed environmental data. However, the transformed SDMs produced better models in ten of the 14 total SDMs, as judged by ratios of mean probability values at known presences to mean probability values at all other locations. Niche variability should be an important consideration when using SDMs to predict future distributions of species because of its prevalence among natural populations. The framework we present here may potentially improve these predictions by accounting for such variability.

Phylogenetic analysis of the evolution of the niche in lizards of the Anolis sagrei group.

Recent advances in ecological niche modeling (ENM) algorithms, in conjunction with increasing availability of geographic information system (GIS) data, allow species' niches to be predicted over broad geographic areas using environmental characteristics associated with point localities for a given species. Consequently, the examination of how niches evolve is now possible using a regionally inclusive multivariate approach to characterize the environmental requirements of a species. Initial work that uses this approach has suggested that niche evolution is characterized by conservatism: the more closely related species are, the more similar are their niches. We applied a phylogenetic approach to examine niche evolution during the radiation of Cuban trunk-ground anoles (Anolis sagrei group), which has produced 15 species in Cuba. We modeled the niche of 11 species within this group using the WhyWhere ENM algorithm and examined the evolution of the niche using a phylogeny based on approximately 1500 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA. No general relationship exists between phylogenetic similarity and niche similarity. Examination of species pairs indicates some examples in which closely related species display niche conservatism and some in which they exhibit highly divergent niches. In addition, some distantly related species exhibit significant niche similarity. Comparisons also revealed a specialist-generalist sister species pair in which the niche of one species is nested within, and much narrower than, the niche of another closely related species.

Shared and unique features of diversification in Greater Antillean Anolis ecomorphs.

Examples of convergent evolution suggest that natural selection can often produce predictable evolutionary outcomes. However, unique histories among species can lead to divergent evolution regardless of their shared selective pressures-and some contend that such historical contingencies produce the dominant features of evolution. A classic example of convergent evolution is the set of Anolis lizard ecomorphs of the Greater Antilles. On each of four islands, anole species partition the structural habitat into at least four categories, exhibiting similar morphologies within each category. We assessed the relative importance of shared selection due to habitat similarity, unique island histories, and unique effects of similar habitats on different islands in the generation of morphological variation in anole ecomorphs. We found that shared features of diversification across habitats were of greatest importance, but island effects on morphology (reflecting either island effects per se or phylogenetic relationships) and unique aspects of habitat diversification on different islands were also important. There were three distinct cases of island-specific habitat diversification, and only one was confounded by phylogenetic relatedness. The other two unique aspects were not related to shared ancestry but might reflect as-yet-unmeasured environmental differences between islands in habitat characteristics. Quantifying the relative importance of shared and unique responses to similar selective regimes provides a more complete understanding of phenotypic diversification, even in this much-studied system.

Abundance patterns of two Oropsylla (Ceratophyllidae: Siphonaptera) species on black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) hosts.

Behavioral, genetic, and immune variation within a host population may lead to aggregation of parasites whereby a small proportion of hosts harbor a majority of parasites. In situations where two or more parasite species infect the same host population there is the potential for interaction among parasites that could potentially influence patterns of aggregation through either competition or facilitation. We studied the occurrence and abundance patterns of two congeneric flea species on black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) hosts to test for interactions among parasite species. We live-trapped prairie dogs on ten sites in Boulder County, CO and collected their fleas. We found a non-random, positive association between the two flea species, Oropsylla hirsuta and O. tuberculata cynomuris; hosts with high loads of one flea species had high loads of the second species. This result suggests that there is no interspecific competition among fleas on prairie dog hosts. Host weight had a weak negative relationship to flea load and host sex did not influence flea load, though there were slight differences in flea prevalence and abundance between male and female C. ludovicianus. While genetic and behavioral variation among hosts may predispose certain individuals to infection, our results indicate apparent facilitation among flea species that may result from immune suppression or other flea-mediated factors.

GIS-based characterization of the geographic distributions of wild and cultivated populations of the Mesoamerican fruit tree Spondias purpurea (Anacardiaceae).

Humans are having a profound impact on the geographic distributions of plant populations. In crop species, domestication has been accompanied by the geographic expansion of cultivated populations relative to their wild ancestors. We used a geographical information system (GIS)-based approach to investigate differences in the environmental factors characterizing the geographic distributions of cultivated and wild populations of the Mesoamerican fruit tree Spondias purpurea. Locality data for 86 cultivated and 28 wild S. purpurea populations were used in conjunction with environmental data layers and Maxent, a maximum entropy application for predicting species distributions. Interpredictivity analyses and principal components analysis revealed that the predicted distribution of wild S. purpurea is nested within the cultivated distribution and that the ecological niche (defined by environmental characteristics) of cultivated S. purpurea has expanded relative to that of wild populations. Significant differences between wild and cultivated populations were detected for five environmental variables, corresponding to the expansion of S. purpurea during the domestication process from its native habitat in the Mesoamerican tropical dry forests into less seasonal habitats. These data suggest that humans have altered the range of habitats occupied by cultivated S. purpurea populations relative to their wild progenitors.

Latitudinal variation in the shape of the species body size distribution: an analysis using freshwater fishes.

Many taxonomic and ecological assemblages of species exhibit a right-skewed body size-frequency distribution when characterized at a regional scale. Although this distribution has been frequently described, factors influencing geographic variation in the distribution are not well understood, nor are mechanisms responsible for distribution shape. In this study, variation in the species body size-frequency distributions of 344 regional communities of North American freshwater fishes is examined in relation to latitude, species richness, and taxonomic composition. Although the distribution of all species of North American fishes is right-skewed, a negative correlation exists between latitude and regional community size distribution skewness, with size distributions becoming left-skewed at high latitudes. This relationship is not an artifact of the confounding relationship between latitude and species richness in North American fishes. The negative correlation between latitude and regional community size distribution skewness is partially due to the geographic distribution of families of fishes and apparently enhanced by a nonrandom geographic distribution of species within families. These results are discussed in the context of previous explanations of factors responsible for the generation of species size-frequency distributions related to the fractal nature of the environment, energetics, and evolutionary patterns of body size in North American fishes.