Risk Factors for Mortality From Aortic Aneurysm and Dissection: Results From a 26-Year Follow-Up of a Community-Based Population.

Background Aortic aneurysm rupture and acute aortic dissection are life-threatening conditions and represent an ever-growing public health challenge. Comprehensive epidemiologic investigations for their risk factors are scant. We aimed to investigate risk factors associated with mortality from aortic diseases through analysis of a community-based Japanese cohort. Methods and Results IPHS (Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study) comprises 95 723 participants who took part in municipal health checkups in 1993. Factors considered for analysis included age, sex, body mass index, blood pressure, serum lipids (high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides), diabetes, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drug use, and smoking and drinking habits. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the associations between these variables and mortality from aortic diseases. During the median 26-year follow-up, 190 participants died of aortic aneurysm rupture, and 188 died of aortic dissection. An increased multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for mortality from total aortic diseases was observed for high systolic blood pressure (1.61 [1.00-2.59]), diastolic blood pressure (2.95 [1.95-4.48]), high non-HDL cholesterol (1.63 [1.19-2.24]), low HDL cholesterol (1.86 [1.29-2.68]), and heavy (>20 cigarettes/day) smoking habit (2.46 [1.66-3.63]). A lower multivariable HR was observed for diabetes (0.50 [0.28-0.89]). Conclusions Smoking habit, higher systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure levels, higher non-HDL, and lower HDL cholesterol levels were positively associated with mortality from total aortic diseases, whereas diabetes was inversely associated.

Diabetes Mellitus Modifies the Association of Serum Triglycerides with Ischemic Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study (IPHS).

AIM: Diabetes mellitus and hypertriglyceridemia may adversely interact with the development of ischemic cardiovascular disease, but epidemiological evidence on this issue is scarce. We hypothesized that the impact of hypertriglyceridemia on ischemic cardiovascular disease (ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke) would differ according to the presence or absence of diabetes mellitus and tested our a priori hypothesis under a large population-based prospective study. METHODS: A total of 90,468 men and women aged 40-79 years in 1993 were enrolled in the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study (IPHS), a community-based cohort study of Japanese. The participants' serum triglyceride levels (mostly nonfasting) were measured every 5 years, and the participants were followed up for mortality from ischemic cardiovascular disease through 2016. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were calculated according to 5-year updated triglyceride levels (＜100, 100-149, 150-199, 200-299, and ≥ 300 mg/dl). RESULTS: During 1,795,877 person-years, there were 3,323 deaths from ischemic cardiovascular diseases (1,968 ischemic heart diseases and 1,355 ischemic strokes). We found no association between triglyceride levels and the risk of mortality from ischemic cardiovascular disease after adjustment for known cardiovascular risk factors. However, when stratified by the presence or absence of diabetes mellitus, excess mortality from ischemic cardiovascular disease appeared among participants with diabetes mellitus with triglyceride levels of ≥ 300 mg/dl. Further adjustment for high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol attenuated the association toward being statistically nonsignificant. CONCLUSION: The impact of high serum triglyceride levels on the risk of ischemic cardiovascular disease mortality was confined to participants with diabetes mellitus.

Atrial Fibrillation With and Without Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Stroke Mortality.

AIM: The association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and risk of stroke mortality among men and women without traditional cerebrocardiovascular risk factors (TCVRFs) is unclear. This study aimed to determine whether AF was a risk factor for stroke and total cardiovascular disease mortality among individuals without TCVRFs. METHODS: A total of 90,629 Japanese subjects from the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study aged 40-79 years, with and without TCVRFs, were studied from 1993 to 2013. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard regression model stratified by sex and the presence of TCVRFs. Covariates were age, systolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive medication use, and serum total cholesterol levels. A standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at rest was used to screen AF. Cause-specific mortality was classified according to the International Classification of Disease code. RESULTS: Compared with participants without AF, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) for stroke mortality among participants without TCVRFs were 4.3 (1.1-17.8) and 15.0 (5.5-40.8) for men and women with AF, respectively. HRs for total cardiovascular disease mortality were 6.2 (2.8-14.2) for men and 10.7 (4.8-24.1) for women. For participants with TCVRFs, multivariable-adjusted HRs for stroke mortality were 3.1 (2.2-4.6) and 4.3 (2.6-7.3), whereas HRs for total cardiovascular disease mortality were 2.9 (2.2-3.8) and 3.5 (2.4-5.1) for men and women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: AF was found to be an independent risk factor for stroke and total cardiovascular mortality even in individuals without other TCVRFs.

Age-Specific Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Cardiovascular Mortality Among Japanese Men and Women (The Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study [IPHS]).

The age-specific impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) on cardiovascular diseases remains unclear. A total of 90,629 participants who were from 40 to 79 years of age in 1993 were followed up until 2013 as part of the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study. Hazard ratios for mortality stratified by gender and age groups were calculated using Cox's proportional hazards regression models. A total of 22,794 patients (11,329 men and 11,465 women) died during the follow-up period, including 6,684 patients who died of cardiovascular causes (2,951 men and 3,733 women). On multivariable analysis, participants with AF had an increased risk of cardiovascular-related mortality compared with those without AF. Among participants aged 40 to 64 years, the adjusted hazard ratios were 3.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0 to 5.3) for men and 7.1 (95% CI 3.2 to 16.0) for women; the corresponding adjusted hazard ratios among participants aged 65 to 79 years were 3.0 (95% CI 2.2 to 4.0) for men and 3.7 (95% CI 2.5 to 5.4) for women. No significant difference in hazard ratios between age groups was found for either gender. AF was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in each age and gender group; again, no significant difference in hazard ratios between the age groups was found in terms of AF. AF may be an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and all-cause mortalities regardless of age.

Cytomegalovirus viremia as a risk factor for mortality prior to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected gold miners in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia has been shown to be an independent risk factor for increased mortality among HIV-infected individuals in the developing world. While CMV infection is nearly ubiquitous in resource-poor settings, few data are available on the role of subclinical CMV reactivation on HIV. METHODS: Using a cohort of mineworkers with stored plasma samples, we investigated the association between CMV DNA concentration and mortality prior to antiretroviral therapy availability. RESULTS: Among 1341 individuals (median CD4 count 345 cells/µl, 70% WHO stage 1 or 2, median follow-up 0.9 years), 70 (5.2%) had CMV viremia at baseline; 71 deaths occurred. In univariable analysis CMV viremia at baseline was associated with a three-fold increase in mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.37; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.60, 7.10). After adjustment for CD4 count, WHO stage and HIV viral load (N = 429 with complete data), the association was attenuated (HR 2.27; 95%CI 0.88, 5.83). Mortality increased with higher CMV viremia (≥1,000 copies/ml vs. no viremia, adjusted HR 3.65, 95%CI: 1.29, 10.41). Results were similar using time-updated CMV viremia. CONCLUSIONS: High copy number, subclinical CMV viremia was an independent risk factor for mortality among male HIV-infected adults in South Africa with relatively early HIV disease. Studies to determine whether anti-CMV therapy to mitigate high copy number viremia would increase lifespan are warranted.

[Survey of newly diagnosed Japanese leprosy patients].

We aimed to elucidate the patterns and trends of autochthonous leprosy in Japan from 1964 to 2009, to compare them with the findings from other studies of leprosy in decline. Data on registered leprosy cases in Japan in the period 1964-2009 were analysed with reference to trends in case detection, geographical distribution, age at diagnosis, sex, classification and family history. A consistent decline in leprosy case detection was observed in all areas of the country over the period 1964-2009. Highest incidence was consistently in Okinawa. Autochthonous leprosy has not been reported in anyone born in Japan since 1980. Increasing average age and a shift towards lower latitudes were demonstrated throughout the period. Analyses of data on autochthonous cases revealed patterns similar to those reported in other countries with declining leprosy. Okinawa has had the highest incidence of leprosy in all of Japan since the first national survey in 1900. Several possible explanations include the difference of leprosy control history between Okinawa and the rest of Japan, Okinawa's unique geographical condition, large-scale problem of stigma and discrimination against leprosy patients and delayed improvement of socio-economic conditions.

The decline of leprosy in Japan: patterns and trends 1964-2008.

OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to elucidate the patterns and trends of autochthonous leprosy in Japan from 1964 to 2008, to compare them with the findings from other studies of leprosy in decline, and to determine whether M. leprae transmission persists in Japan. DESIGN: Data on registered leprosy cases in Japan in the period 1964-2008 were analysed with reference to trends in case detection, geographical distribution, age at diagnosis, sex, classification, family history and broad correlation with socioeconomic conditions. RESULTS: A consistent decline in leprosy case detection was observed in all areas of the country over the period 1964-2008. Highest incidence was consistently in Okinawa, the southernmost part of Japan. Autochthonous leprosy has not been reported in anyone born in Japan since 1980. Increasing average age and a shift towards lower latitudes were demonstrated throughout the period. There was an inverse association between regional measures of wealth and leprosy incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Leprosy has declined throughout the past century in Japan. Autochthonous transmission has probably stopped in mainland Japan, but may still occur at a low level in Okinawa, the country's southernmost region. Analyses of data on autochthonous cases revealed patterns similar to those reported in other countries with declining leprosy. Detailed comparisons between countries with very low leprosy incidence may help us to better understand the epidemiology of leprosy.