Improving Agri-environmental Schemes: Suggestions from Farmers and Nature Managers in a Central European Region.

Agri-environmental schemes (AES) are important policy instruments within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union for environmental protection. Due to the voluntary nature of AES, their attractiveness to farmers and stakeholders involved in nature management and protection (nature managers) is essential for high participation levels. This study aims to assess farmers' and nature managers' ideas to improve agri-environmental schemes. We analyzed suggestions of 825 farmers and 118 nature managers for improvements of AES collected in a large-scale survey in Bavaria, Germany. A content analysis was applied to categorize and compare suggestions by farmers (differentiated into two groups through a cluster analysis) and nature managers. The results reveal that stakeholders were highly willing to share ideas and made detailed suggestions for improvements and individual measures. They were aware of the importance of protecting nature and promoting biodiversity in agricultural landscapes and acknowledged the necessity of (financial) support programs. Farmers placed more emphasis on the practicability and profitability of measures on arable land, while nature managers tended to propose policy-related ideas focusing on nature protection, biodiversity, and specific species. Among farmers, suggestions differed with farm characteristics such as the operation mode (full-time, part-time). These findings can support the design of future AES, accounting for different background situations and thereby increasing acceptability. This includes considering perspectives from different stakeholder groups and creating regionally adapted programs with varying levels of flexibility and practicability.

Spatial and temporal variability of climate change impacts on ecosystem services in small agricultural catchments using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT).

Climate change and anthropogenic activities alter the ecosystem which affects the ecosystem services (ES) associated with it. Therefore, the objective in this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on different regulation and provisioning ecosystem services. For this, we propose a modelling framework to simulate the impact of climate change on streamflow, nitrate loads, erosion, and crop yield in terms of ES indices for two agricultural catchments (Schwesnitz and Schwabach) located in Bavaria, Germany. The agro-hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to simulate the considered ES in past (1990-2019), near future (2030-2059) and far future (2070-2099) climatic conditions. Three different bias-corrected (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) climate projections from five different climate models retrieved from the Bavarian State Office for Environment (∼5 km) are used in this research to simulate the impact of climate change on ES. The developed SWAT models were calibrated for the major crops (1995 to 2018) present in the respective watersheds as well as for daily streamflow (1995 to 2008), which gave promising results with good PBIAS and Kling-Gupta Efficiency. The impact of climate change on erosion regulation, food and feed provisioning, and water quantity and water quality regulation were quantified in terms of indices. When using the ensemble of the five climate models, no significant impact on ES was seen due to climate change. Furthermore, the impact of climate change on different ES services from the two catchment is different. The findings of this study will be valuable for devising suitable management practices for sustainable water management at the catchment level to cope with climate change.

Perceptions of ecosystem services: Comparing socio-cultural and environmental influences.

Ecosystem services such as food provisioning, climate regulation, nutrient cycling, or recreation in open landscapes underpin human wellbeing. They are highly dependent on land use, land cover and utilization pattern as well as environmental factors like climate, topography and soil. In consequence, ecosystem services supply shows a high spatial variability. However, it is less clear if the perception of the importance of ecosystem services is similarly heterogeneous in space and amongst societal actors. The aim of this large-scale study was to explore whether land cover and climate gradients as well as socio-cultural factors influence the perceptions of ecosystem services of four groups of societal actors: citizens, farmers, foresters and nature managers. Spatially explicit survey data of 3018 respondents allowed to gain insight into the distribution of perceived importance of 21 ecosystem services in the federal state of Bavaria, Germany together with the respondents' socio-cultural characterisation (e.g. gender, education and hobbies in nature). Responses were analysed through descriptive statistics, redundancy analysis, and Generalized Linear Models. Results reveal that the perceived importance of many ecosystem services was consistently high across groups, although perception differed for some ecosystem services (e.g. production of energy plants and timber as well as recreation in urban green space). Compared to other actor groups, farmers attributed slightly lower importance to all ES except provisioning services. Socio-cultural factors better explained variability in perceived importance of ecosystem services than land cover and climate gradients. This might be either explained by the fact that the environmental gradients vary not strong enough in our case study or that they do not shape the perceptions of respondents. A limitation of the study is that the sample of respondents obtained is not representative for the population, but biased towards persons interested in the topics of the survey. Still the consensus indicated by the overall positive perception of ecosystem services among respondents highlights the integrative potential of ecosystem services when included in decision-making.

Crop diversity and stability of revenue on farms in Central Europe: An analysis of big data from a comprehensive agricultural census in Bavaria.

Diversity of agricultural landscapes is important to maintain the provision of ecosystem services. In face of decreasing support measures for agricultural markets in the European Union, diversified crop portfolios could also offer a possibility to stabilize revenue at farm level (portfolio effect). We hypothesize that (i) diversity of crop portfolios changes along spatial gradients in the study area (Bavaria, Germany), (ii) the composition of portfolios depends on farm parameters, and (iii) more diverse portfolios on arable land provide higher revenue stability. We analysed agricultural census data comprising all farms (N = 105 314) in the study area and identified 26 typical crop portfolios. We show that portfolio composition is related to farm characteristics (whole farm revenue, farm type, farm size) and location. Currently, diversification of crop portfolios fails to promote stability of portfolio revenue in the study area, where policy still indirectly influences market prices of energy crops. We conclude that the portfolio effect as a natural insurance was less important in recent years due to high market prices for specific crops. This low need for natural insurances probably favoured simplified portfolios leading to decreased agricultural diversity.

Unveiling Undercover Cropland Inside Forests Using Landscape Variables: A Supplement to Remote Sensing Image Classification.

The worldwide demand for food has been increasing due to the rapidly growing global population, and agricultural lands have increased in extent to produce more food crops. The pattern of cropland varies among different regions depending on the traditional knowledge of farmers and availability of uncultivated land. Satellite images can be used to map cropland in open areas but have limitations for detecting undergrowth inside forests. Classification results are often biased and need to be supplemented with field observations. Undercover cropland inside forests in the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia was assessed using field observed percentage cover of land use/land cover classes, and topographic and location parameters. The most influential factors were identified using Boosted Regression Trees and used to map undercover cropland area. Elevation, slope, easterly aspect, distance to settlements, and distance to national park were found to be the most influential factors determining undercover cropland area. When there is very high demand for growing food crops, constrained under restricted rights for clearing forest, cultivation could take place within forests as an undercover. Further research on the impact of undercover cropland on ecosystem services and challenges in sustainable management is thus essential.

Harmonizing the assessment of biodiversity effects from land and water use within LCA.

Addressing biodiversity impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA) has recently been significantly improved. Advances include the consideration of several taxa, consideration of vulnerability of species and ecosystems, global coverage and spatial differentiation. To allow a comparison of biodiversity impacts of different stressors (e.g., land and water use), consistent approaches for assessing and aggregating biodiversity impacts across taxa are needed. We propose four different options for aggregating impacts across taxa and stressors: equal weight for species, equal weight for taxa and two options with special consideration of species' vulnerability. We apply the aggregation options to a case study of coffee, tea and sugarcane production in Kenya for the production of 1 kg of crop. The ranking between stressors (land vs water use) within each crop and also of the overall impact between crops (coffee>sugarcane>tea) remained the same when applying the different aggregation options. Inclusion of the vulnerability of species had significant influence on the magnitude of results, and potentially also on the spatial distribution of impacts, and should be considered.

High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands.

The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%), and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%), respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

Land use in life cycle assessment: global characterization factors based on regional and global potential species extinction.

Land use is one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss. However, many life cycle assessment studies do not yet assess this effect because of the lack of reliable and operational methods. Here, we present an approach to modeling the impacts of regional land use on plants, mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Our global analysis calculates the total potential damage caused by all land uses within each WWF ecoregion and allocates this total damage to different types of land use per ecoregion. We use an adapted (matrix-calibrated) species-area relationship to model the potential regional extinction of nonendemic species caused by reversible land use and land use change impacts. The potential global extinction of endemic species is used to assess irreversible, permanent impacts. Model uncertainty is assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. The impacts of land use on biodiversity varied strongly across ecoregions, showing the highest values in regions where most natural habitat had been converted in the past. The approach is thus retrospective and was able to highlight the impacts in highly disturbed regions. However, we also illustrate how it can be applied to prospective assessments using scenarios of future land use. Uncertainties, modeling choices, and validity are discussed.

Quantifying and mapping ecosystem services supplies and demands: a review of remote sensing applications.

Ecosystems provide services necessary for the livelihoods and well-being of people. Quantifying and mapping supplies and demands of ecosystem services is essential for continuous monitoring of such services to support decision-making. Area-wide and spatially explicit mapping of ecosystem services based on extensive ground surveys is restricted to local scales and limited due to high costs. In contrast, remote sensing provides reliable area-wide data for quantifying and mapping ecosystem services at comparatively low costs, and with the option of fast, frequent, and continuous observations for monitoring. In this paper, we review relevant remote sensing systems, sensor types, and methods applicable in quantifying selected provisioning and regulatory services. Furthermore, opportunities, challenges, and future prospects in using remote sensing for supporting ecosystem services' quantification and mapping are discussed.

Toward meaningful end points of biodiversity in life cycle assessment.

Halting current rates of biodiversity loss will be a defining challenge of the 21st century. To assess the effectiveness of strategies to achieve this goal, indicators and tools are required that monitor the driving forces of biodiversity loss, the changing state of biodiversity, and evaluate the effectiveness of policy responses. Here, we review the use of indicators and approaches to model biodiversity loss in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), a methodology used to evaluate the cradle-to-grave environmental impacts of products. We find serious conceptual shortcomings in the way models are constructed, with scale considerations largely absent. Further, there is a disproportionate focus on indicators that reflect changes in compositional aspects of biodiversity, mainly changes in species richness. Functional and structural attributes of biodiversity are largely neglected. Taxonomic and geographic coverage remains problematic, with the majority of models restricted to one or a few taxonomic groups and geographic regions. On a more general level, three of the five drivers of biodiversity loss as identified by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment are represented in current impact categories (habitat change, climate change and pollution), while two are missing (invasive species and overexploitation). However, methods across all drivers can be greatly improved. We discuss these issues and make recommendations for future research to better reflect biodiversity loss in LCA.