A Risk-scoring Model for Predicting Post-recurrence Survival in Patients With Endometrial Carcinoma.

AIMS: The survival time of patients with recurrent endometrial carcinoma is generally short. However, considerable interindividual variation exists. We developed a risk-scoring model for predicting post-recurrence survival in patients with endometrial carcinoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with endometrial carcinoma treated at a single institution between 2007 and 2013 were identified. Pearson chi-squared analyses were used to compute odds ratios for the associations between risk factors and short survival after cancer recurrence. The results for biochemical analyses represented values at diagnosis of disease recurrence or values at initial diagnosis for those patients who had a primary refractory disease. Logistic regression models were constructed for the identification of variables that independently predict short post-recurrence survival. The models were used to assign points based on odds ratios for risk factors and risk scores were derived. RESULTS: In total, 236 patients with recurrent endometrial carcinoma were included in the study. Based on overall survival analysis, 12 months was selected as the cut-off for short post-recurrence survival. Factors associated with short post-recurrence survival were platelet count, serum CA125 concentration and progression-free survival. A risk-scoring model with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.782 (95% confidence interval 0.713-0.851) was developed in patients without missing data (n = 182). When patients with a primary refractory disease were excluded, age and blood haemoglobin concentration were identified as additional predictors of short post-recurrence survival. For this subpopulation (n = 152), a risk-scoring model with an AUC of 0.821 (95% confidence interval 0.750-0.892) was developed. CONCLUSIONS: We report a risk-scoring model that shows acceptable to excellent accuracy in predicting post-recurrence survival in patients with endometrial carcinoma, with primary refractory diseases included or excluded. This model has potential applications in precision medicine in patients with endometrial carcinoma.

Incidence of uterine leiomyosarcoma and endometrial stromal sarcoma in Nordic countries: results from NORDCAN and NOCCA databases.

OBJECTIVES AND STUDY DESIGN: Uterine sarcomas are an uncommon and heterogeneous group of malignancies. Their etiology is mainly unknown. Here, we analyzed trends in incidence and occupational variation in risk of uterine leiomyosarcomas (LMS) and endometrial stromal sarcomas (ESS) in the Nordic countries aided by NORDCAN and NOCCA (Nordic Occupational Cancer) databases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence rates per 100,000 and Standardized incidences rates (SIR) obtained from NORDCAN and NOCCA databases. RESULTS: The incidence rates were about 0.3 per 100,000 for ESS and about 0.4 per 100,000 for LMS in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, and Norway. During the study-period (1978-2007), the incidence rates in each country were quite similar and constant. The age-specific incidence of LMS showed a peak around menopause. Significantly increased risk for LMS occurred in shoe and leather workers, farmers and teachers, whereas significantly low risk was detected with packers in the NOCCA data from Finland, Norway, and Sweden. For ESS no occupations showed either increased or decreased incidences. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence trends of LMS and ESS in our study were constant in four Nordic countries over time. The elevated risk for LMS with women exposed to leather work and animal dust indicates further exploration.