Supply spillovers during the pandemic: Evidence from high-frequency shipping data.

World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (lockdowns) to halt the spread of the disease. At the same time, demand declined as households and firms scaled back spending. This paper attempts to disentangle the supply and demand channels in trade by quantifying the causal effect of supply spillovers from lockdowns. We utilise a novel dataset of daily bilateral seaborne trade and design a shift-share identification strategy that leverages geography-induced cargo delivery lags to track the transmission of supply disruptions across space. We find strong but short-lived supply spillovers of lockdowns through international trade. Moreover, the evidence is suggestive of the downstream propagation of countries' lockdowns through global supply chains. The short-lived nature of the disruptions despite the unprecedented scale of the shock caution against any blunt use of trade and tax policies to create costly redundancies in global supply chains.

Repeated quantitative measurements of De Novo synthesis of albumin and fibrinogen.

The possibility of using two different isotopomers, for the incorporation of isotopically labeled amino acids, was explored to enable longitudinal studies of de novo synthesis of two export liver proteins, albumin and fibrinogen. The agreement of the synthesis rates between the two different labels was evaluated along with the reproducibility of repeated experiments using different time intervals. Healthy volunteers were studied in a standardized fed state. Protocol A (n = 10) involved two measurements 48 hours apart. Protocol B (n = 6) involved three measurements at baseline and five hours and then seven days after the initial measurement. De novo synthesis of albumin and fibrinogen by the incorporation of D5-phenylalanine or D8-phenylalanine were measured using the flooding dose technique. Albumin and fibrinogen were isolated from plasma using standard techniques. Fractional and absolute synthesis rates were calculated. Repeated measurements employing the two isotoptomers showed good agreement for albumin fractional synthesis rate after 48 hours (p = 0.92) and after 7 days (p = 0.99), with a coefficient of variation of 5.9% when using the same isotopic label. For fibrinogen, the coefficient of variation for the fractional synthesis rate employing the same isotopic label was 16.6%. Repeated measurements after 48 hours and seven days showed less agreement although there was no statistical difference (P = 0.32 and P = 0.30 respectively). Repeated measurement after five hours showed a statistical significant difference for the fractional synthesis rate of fibrinogen (p = 0.008) but not for albumin (p = 0.12). Repeated measurements of albumin de novo synthesis more than 48 hours apart show acceptable agreement using either one or two different isotopic labels. For fibrinogen the larger intra-individual scatter necessitates larger study groups to detect changes in longitudinal studies. Repeated measurements within 48 hours need to be validated further.

Simultaneous assessment of the synthesis rate and transcapillary escape rate of albumin in inflammation and surgery.

BACKGROUND: Better knowledge of albumin kinetics is needed to define the indications for albumin use in clinical practice. This study involved two approaches: the synthesis rate and transcapillary escape rate of albumin were measured simultaneously at different levels of plasma albumin concentration in relation to acute inflammation and surgery; and two different tracers were compared to determine plasma volume and the transcapillary escape rate. METHODS: Healthy volunteers (n = 10), patients with acute inflammatory abdominal disease (n = 10), and patients undergoing elective pancreatic resection (n = 10) were studied. The albumin synthesis rate was measured by the incorporation of deuterium-labeled phenylalanine. Plasma volume and the transcapillary escape rate were assessed using 123I-labeled and 125I-labeled albumin. RESULTS: A 50 % elevated de-novo albumin synthesis rate was seen in patients with acute inflammation and marked hypoalbuminemia, while patients with marginal hypoalbuminemia before the start of surgery had a normal albumin synthesis rate. The transcapillary escape rate was elevated intraoperatively during the reconstructive phase of pancreatic surgery, when plasma albumin was decreased but stable. In acute inflammation with marked hypoalbuminemia, the transcapillary escape rate was no different from normal. 123I-labeled and 125I-labeled albumin were found exchangeable for plasma volume determinations, but could be used only in groups of patients for the transcapillary escape rate. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study illustrates the limited information contained in albumin plasma concentrations to reflect albumin kinetics. On the contrary, single measurements of the synthesis rate and/or transcapillary escape rate of albumin obviously cannot explain the plasma level of albumin or the changes seen in plasma albumin concentration. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.clinicaltrials.gov , study number NCT01686776 . Registered 13 September 2012.