Modeling Eastern Russian High Arctic Geese (Anser fabalis, A. albifrons) during moult and brood rearing in the 'New Digital Arctic'.

Many polar species and habitats are now affected by man-made global climate change and underlying infrastructure. These anthropogenic forces have resulted in clear implications and many significant changes in the arctic, leading to the emergence of new climate, habitats and other issues including digital online infrastructure representing a 'New Artic'. Arctic grazers, like Eastern Russian migratory populations of Tundra Bean Goose Anser fabalis and Greater White-fronted Goose A. albifrons, are representative examples and they are affected along the entire flyway in East Asia, namely China, Japan and Korea. Here we present the best publicly-available long-term (24 years) digitized geographic information system (GIS) data for the breeding study area (East Yakutia and Chukotka) and its habitats with ISO-compliant metadata. Further, we used seven publicly available compiled Open Access GIS predictor layers to predict the distribution for these two species within the tundra habitats. Using BIG DATA we are able to improve on the ecological niche prediction inference for both species by focusing for the first time specifically on biological relevant population cohorts: post-breeding moulting non-breeders, as well as post-breeding parent birds with broods. To assure inference with certainty, we assessed it with 4 lines of evidence including alternative best-available open access field data from GBIF.org as well as occurrence data compiled from the literature. Despite incomplete data, we found a good model accuracy in support of our evidence for a robust inference of the species distributions. Our predictions indicate a strong publicly best-available relative index of occurrence (RIO). These results are based on the quantified ecological niche showing more realistic gradual occurrence patterns but which are not fully in agreement with the current strictly applied parsimonious flyway and species delineations. While our predictions are to be improved further, e.g. when synergetic data are made freely available, here we offer within data caveats the first open access model platform for fine-tuning and future predictions for this otherwise poorly represented region in times of a rapid changing industrialized 'New Arctic' with global repercussions.

Year-round spatiotemporal distribution pattern of a threatened sea duck species breeding on Kolguev Island, south-eastern Barents Sea.

BACKGROUND: The long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis) was categorized as ´Vulnerable` by the IUCN after a study revealed a rapid wintering population decline of 65% between 1992-1993 and 2007-2009 in the Baltic Sea. As knowledge about the European long-tailed duck's life cycle and movement ecology is limited, we investigate its year-round spatiotemporal distribution patterns. Specifically, we aimed to identify the wintering grounds, timing of migration and staging of this population via light-level geolocation. RESULTS: Of the 48 female long-tailed ducks tagged on Kolguev Island (western Russian Arctic), 19 were recaptured to obtain data. After breeding and moulting at freshwater lakes, ducks went out to sea around Kolguev Island and to marine waters ranging from the White Sea to Novaya Zemlya Archipelago for 33 ± 10 days. After a rapid autumn migration, 18 of 19 birds spent their winter in the Baltic Sea and one bird in the White Sea, where they stayed for 212 ± 3 days. There, they used areas known to host long-tailed ducks, but areas differed among individuals. After a rapid spring migration in mid-May, the birds spent 23 ± 3 days at sea in coastal areas between the White Sea and Kolguev Island, before returning to their freshwater breeding habitats in June. CONCLUSIONS: The Baltic Sea represents the most important wintering area for female long-tailed ducks from Kolguev Island. Important spring and autumn staging areas include the Barents Sea and the White Sea. Climate change will render these habitats more exposed to human impacts in the form of fisheries, marine traffic and oil exploitation in near future. Threats that now operate in the wintering areas may thus spread to the higher latitude staging areas and further increase the pressure on long-tailed ducks.

Rough-legged buzzards, Arctic foxes and red foxes in a tundra ecosystem without rodents.

Small rodents with multi-annual population cycles strongly influence the dynamics of food webs, and in particular predator-prey interactions, across most of the tundra biome. Rodents are however absent from some arctic islands, and studies on performance of arctic predators under such circumstances may be very instructive since rodent cycles have been predicted to collapse in a warming Arctic. Here we document for the first time how three normally rodent-dependent predator species-rough-legged buzzard, arctic fox and red fox - perform in a low-arctic ecosystem with no rodents. During six years (in 2006-2008 and 2011-2013) we studied diet and breeding performance of these predators in the rodent-free Kolguev Island in Arctic Russia. The rough-legged buzzards, previously known to be a small rodent specialist, have only during the last two decades become established on Kolguev Island. The buzzards successfully breed on the island at stable low density, but with high productivity based on goslings and willow ptarmigan as their main prey - altogether representing a novel ecological situation for this species. Breeding density of arctic fox varied from year to year, but with stable productivity based on mainly geese as prey. The density dynamic of the arctic fox appeared to be correlated with the date of spring arrival of the geese. Red foxes breed regularly on the island but in very low numbers that appear to have been unchanged over a long period - a situation that resemble what has been recently documented from Arctic America. Our study suggests that the three predators found breeding on Kolguev Island possess capacities for shifting to changing circumstances in low-arctic ecosystem as long as other small - medium sized terrestrial herbivores are present in good numbers.