Development and external validation of DISPAIR fistula risk score for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula risk after distal pancreatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Highly utilized risk scores for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) have guided clinical decision-making in pancreatoduodenectomy. However, none has been successfully developed for distal pancreatectomy. This study aimed to develop and validate a new fistula risk score for distal pancreatectomy. METHODS: Patients undergoing distal pancreatectomy at Helsinki University Hospital, Finland from 2013 to 2021, and at Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, from 2010 to 2020, were included retrospectively. The outcome was CR-POPF, according to the 2016 International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery definition. Preoperative clinical demographics and radiological parameters such as pancreatic thickness and duct diameter were measured. A logistic regression model was developed, internally validated with bootstrapping, and the performance assessed in an external validation cohort. RESULTS: Of 668 patients from Helsinki (266) and Stockholm (402), 173 (25.9 per cent) developed CR-POPF. The final model consisted of three variables assessed before surgery: transection site (neck versus body/tail), pancreatic thickness at transection site, and diabetes. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.904 (95 per cent c.i. 0.855 to 0.949) after internal validation, and 0.798 (0.748 to 0.848) after external validation. The calibration slope and intercept on external validation were 0.719 and 0.192 respectively. Four risk groups were defined in the validation cohort for clinical applicability: low (below 5 per cent), moderate (at least 5 but below 30 per cent), high (at least 30 but below 75 per cent), and extreme (75 per cent or more). The incidences in these groups were 8.7 per cent (11 of 126), 22.0 per cent (36 of 164), 63 per cent (57 of 91), and 81 per cent (17 of 21) respectively. CONCLUSION: The DISPAIR score after distal pancreatectomy may guide decision-making and allow a risk-adjusted outcome comparison for CR-POPF.

To what extent is severe osteoarthritis preventable? Occupational and non-occupational risk factors for knee and hip osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the relative contribution of cumulative physical workload, sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, as well as prior injury to hospitalization due to knee and hip OA. METHODS: We examined a nationally representative sample of persons aged 30-59 years, who participated in a comprehensive health examination (the Health 2000 Study). A total of 4642 participants were followed from mid-2000 to end-2015 for the first hospitalization due to knee or hip OA using the National Hospital Discharge Register. We examined the association of possible risk factors with the outcome using a competing risk regression model (death was treated as competing risk) and calculated population attributable fractions for statistically significant risk factors. RESULTS: Baseline age and BMI as well as injury were associated with the risk of first hospitalization due to knee and hip OA. Composite cumulative workload was associated with a dose-response pattern with hospitalizations due to knee OA and with hospitalizations due to hip OA at a younger age only. Altogether, prior injury, high BMI and intermediate to high composite cumulative workload accounted for 70% of hospitalizations due to knee OA. High BMI alone accounted for 61% and prior injury only for 6% of hospitalizations due to hip OA. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that overweight/obesity, prior injury and cumulative physical workload are the most important modifiable risk factors that need to be targeted in the prevention of knee OA leading to hospitalization. A substantial proportion of hospitalizations due to hip OA can be reduced by controlling excess body weight.

Effect of Osteoarthritis on Work Participation and Loss of Working Life-years.

OBJECTIVE: To examine to what extent disabling osteoarthritis (OA), leading to a prolonged sickness absence (SA), interferes with work participation and shortens working life-years. METHODS: A total of 4704 wage earners aged 30 to 59 years, whose SA due to OA started in 2006, were followed until October 31, 2014. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to plot sustained (at least 28 consecutive days) return-to-work curves. The associations of potential determinants with early exit from paid employment were examined applying Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Years expected to be spent in different work participation statuses until statutory retirement age were estimated based on daily work participation statuses using adapted Sullivan method. RESULTS: Persons with knee OA showed the fastest, and persons with hip OA the slowest, sustained return to work. Although most participants typically were at work during the first year of followup, a considerable proportion was permanently retired. Male sex, older age, low education, long initial SA, and having not returned to work sustainably, as well as receiving vocational rehabilitation, predicted early exit from paid employment during the followup. Overall, only 45-53% of potential working life-years were estimated to be spent at work, being highest for the oldest age group. CONCLUSION: Our study showed a considerable effect of OA on work participation and working life duration. Clinicians should avoid prescription of long SA or temporary work disability due to OA without a clear treatment or return-to-work plan.

To what extent do education and physical work load factors explain occupational differences in disability retirement due to knee OA? A nationwide register-based study in Finland.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of education and physical work load factors on the occupational differences in disability retirement due to knee osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN: Longitudinal study. SETTING: Linkage of several nationwide registers and a job exposure matrix in Finland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1 135 654 Finns aged 30-60 years in gainful employment were followed from 2005 to 2013 for full disability retirement due to knee OA. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We calculated age-adjusted incidence rates and examined the association of occupation, education and physical work load factors with disability retirement using competing risk regression model. Disability retirement due to other causes than knee OA, old-age retirement and death were treated as competing risk. RESULTS: A total of 6117 persons had disability retirement due to knee OA. Women had a higher age-adjusted incidence rate than men (72 vs 60 per 100 000 person-years, respectively). In men, a very high risk of disability retirement was found among construction workers, electricians and plumbers (HR 16.6, 95% CI 12.5 to 22.2), service workers (HR 12.7, 95% CI 9.2 to 17.4) and in women among building caretakers, cleaners, assistant nurses and kitchen workers (HR 15.5, 95% CI 11.7 to 20.6), as compared with professionals. The observed occupational differences were largely explained by educational level and noticeably mediated by physical work load factors in both genders. CONCLUSION: Our observational study suggests that the risk of disability retirement among manual workers is strongly attributed to the physically heavy work.

Occupation, Physical Workload Factors, and Disability Retirement as a Result of Hip Osteoarthritis in Finland, 2005-2013.

OBJECTIVE: To identify occupations with a high risk of disability retirement as a result of hip osteoarthritis (OA), and to examine the effect of physical workload factors on the occupational differences in disability retirement. METHODS: A total of 1,135,654 (49.4% women) Finns aged 30-60 years in gainful employment were followed from 2005 to 2013 for full disability retirement as a result of hip OA. Information on pensions, occupation, and education were obtained from national registers. Physical workload was assessed by a sex-specific job exposure matrix. We calculated age-adjusted incidence rates and examined the associations of occupation, education, and physical workload factors with disability retirement using a competing risk regression model. RESULTS: Age-adjusted incidence rate was 25 and 22 per 100,000 person-years in men and women, respectively. Both men and women working in lower-level nonmanual and manual occupations had an elevated age-adjusted risk of disability retirement as a result of hip OA. A very high risk of disability retirement was found among male construction workers, electricians, and plumbers (HR 12.7, 95% CI 8.4-19.7), and female professional drivers (HR 15.2, 95% CI 7.5-30.8) as compared with professionals. After adjustment for age and education, the observed occupational differences in disability retirement were largely explained by physical workload factors among men and to a smaller extent, among women. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that education and physical workload factors appear to be the major reasons for excess disability retirement as a result of hip OA in manual occupations, particularly among men.

Risk factors for first hospitalization due to meniscal lesions - a population-based cohort study with 30 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Meniscal lesions are among the most common injuries of the knee, yet limited epidemiologic data is available on their risk factors. We investigated the association of lifestyle factors and physical strenuousness of work on knee injuries with a focus on meniscal lesions. METHODS: We examined a nationally representative sample of persons aged 30 to 59 years, who participated in a comprehensive health examination (the Mini-Finland Health Survey). Subjects without any injury or osteoarthritis in the knee joint at baseline (n = 4713) were subsequently followed via the National Hospital Discharge Register up to 30 years. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 338 knee injuries were identified of which 224 were meniscal lesions. Obesity and regular leisure time physical exercise were associated with an increased risk of first hospitalization due to meniscal lesions (hazard ratio (HR) 1.62 and 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-2.48 and 1.53, 95% CI 1.05-2.23, respectively). The types of sports predicting the highest risk of meniscal lesions were ballgames, gymnastics and jogging. Physical strenuousness of work did not predict meniscal lesion. The hazard of other knee injury was increased among those reporting irregular or regular physical exercise at baseline (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.03-2.64 and 1.88 CI 1.05-2.36, respectively). Smoking or alcohol intake were not associated with knee injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Better safety measures in high-risk sports and weight control would likely improve the prevention of meniscal lesions in populations.