Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets.

Models of marine mammal population dynamics have been used extensively to predict abundance. A less common application of these models is to reconstruct historical population dynamics, filling in gaps in observation data by integrating information from multiple sources. We developed an integrated population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) to reconstruct its population dynamics in the southwest region of the state over the past 20 years. Our model improved precision of key parameter estimates and permitted inference on poorly known parameters. Population growth was slow (averaging 1.02; 95% credible interval 1.01-1.03) but not steady, and an unusual mortality event in 2013 led to an estimated net loss of 332 (217-466) manatees. Our analyses showed that precise estimates of abundance could be derived from estimates of vital rates and a few input estimates of abundance, which may mean costly surveys to estimate abundance don't need to be conducted as frequently. Our study also shows that retrospective analyses can be useful to: (1) model the transient dynamics of age distribution; (2) assess and communicate the conservation status of wild populations; and (3) improve our understanding of environmental effects on population dynamics and thus enhance our ability to forecast.

Dioctyl sulfosuccinate analysis in near-shore Gulf of Mexico water by direct-injection liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

Dioctyl sulfosuccinate (DOSS) was a major component of the dispersants most used in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill incident response. This analytical method quantifies salt water DOSS concentrations to a reporting limit of 20 µg/L, which was below the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) 40 µg/L DOSS Aquatic Life Benchmark. DOSS in Gulf of Mexico water samples were analyzed by direct-injection reversed-phase liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Sample preparation with 50% acetonitrile (ACN) enabled quantitative transfer of DOSS and increased DOSS response 20-fold by reducing aggregation. This increased sensitivity enabled the detection of a confirmatory transition over the calibration range of 10-200 µg/L. U.S. EPA Region 5 and Region 6 laboratories analyzed hundreds of near-shore surface Gulf of Mexico water samples, none contained more than the 20 ppb reporting limit. The matrix spike DOSS/deuterated surrogate (DOSS-D34) correlation of determination varied with mobile phase modifier (ammonium formate R(2)=0.95 and formic acid R(2)=0.27). Using ammonium formate, DOSS-D34 accurately measured DOSS matrix effect. The near-shore sodium concentrations varied more than 10,000-fold, but were not strongly correlated with DOSS recovery. DOSS detection by LC-MS/MS enabled rapid analysis which was valuable in guiding incident response.