Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the African meningitis belt.

We previously developed a mathematical simulation of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) transmission in Burkina Faso, with the goal of forecasting the relative benefit of different vaccination programs. Here, we revisit key structural assumptions of the model by comparing how accurately the different assumptions reproduce observed NmA trends following vaccine introduction. A priori, we updated several of the model's parameters based on recently published studies. We simulated NmA disease under different assumptions about duration of vaccine-induced protection (including the possibility that vaccine-induced protection may last longer than natural immunity). We compared simulated and observed case counts from 2011-2017. We then used the best-fit model to forecast the impact of different vaccination strategies. Our updated model, with the assumption that vaccine-induced immunity lasts longer than immunity following NmA colonization, was able to reproduce observed trends in NmA disease. The updated model predicts that, following a mass campaign among persons 1-29 years of age, either routine immunization of 9 month-old children or periodic mini-campaigns among children 1-4 years of age will lead to sustained control of epidemic NmA in Burkina Faso. This validated model can help public health officials set policies for meningococcal vaccination in Africa.

Serogroup W Meningitis Outbreak at the Subdistrict Level, Burkina Faso, 2012.

In 2012, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W caused a widespread meningitis epidemic in Burkina Faso. We describe the dynamic of the epidemic at the subdistrict level. Disease detection at this scale allows for a timelier response, which is critical in the new epidemiologic landscape created in Africa by the N. meningitidis A conjugate vaccine.

Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W, Burkina Faso, 2012.

In 2010, Burkina Faso became the first country to introduce meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT). During 2012, Burkina Faso reported increases in Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W, raising questions about whether these cases were a natural increase in disease or resulted from serogroup replacement after PsA-TT introduction. We analyzed national surveillance data to describe the epidemiology of serogroup W and genotyped 61 serogroup W isolates. In 2012, a total of 5,807 meningitis cases were reported through enhanced surveillance, of which 2,353 (41%) were laboratory confirmed. The predominant organism identified was N. meningitidis serogroup W (62%), and all serogroup W isolates characterized belonged to clonal complex 11. Although additional years of data are needed before we can understand the epidemiology of serogroup W after PsA-TT introduction, these data suggest that serogroup W will remain a major cause of sporadic disease and has epidemic potential, underscoring the need to maintain high-quality case-based meningitis surveillance after PsA-TT introduction.