Revealing associations between spatial time series trends of COVID-19 incidence and human mobility: an analysis of bidirectionality and spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

BACKGROUND: Using human mobility as a proxy for social interaction, previous studies revealed bidirectional associations between COVID-19 incidence and human mobility. For example, while an increase in COVID-19 cases may affect mobility to decrease due to lockdowns or fear, conversely, an increase in mobility can potentially amplify social interactions, thereby contributing to an upsurge in COVID-19 cases. Nevertheless, these bidirectional relationships exhibit variations in their nature, evolve over time, and lack generalizability across different geographical contexts. Consequently, a systematic approach is required to detect functional, spatial, and temporal variations within the intricate relationship between disease incidence and mobility. METHODS: We introduce a spatial time series workflow to investigate the bidirectional associations between human mobility and disease incidence, examining how these associations differ across geographic space and throughout different waves of a pandemic. By utilizing daily COVID-19 cases and mobility flows at the county level during three pandemic waves in the US, we conduct bidirectional Granger causality tests for each county and wave. Furthermore, we employ dynamic time warping to quantify the similarity between the trends of disease incidence and mobility, enabling us to map the spatial distribution of trends that are either similar or dissimilar. RESULTS: Our analysis reveals significant bidirectional associations between COVID-19 incidence and mobility, and we develop a typology to explain the variations in these associations across waves and counties. Overall, COVID-19 incidence exerts a greater influence on mobility than vice versa, but the correlation between the two variables exhibits a stronger connection during the initial wave and weakens over time. Additionally, the relationship between COVID-19 incidence and mobility undergoes changes in direction and significance for certain counties across different waves. These shifts can be attributed to alterations in disease control measures and the presence of evolving confounding factors that differ both spatially and temporally. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of the relationship between COVID-19 incidence and human mobility across different waves. Understanding these variations is crucial for informing the development of more targeted and effective healthcare policies and interventions, particularly at the city or county level where such policies must be implemented. Although we study the association between mobility and COVID-19 incidence, our workflow can be applied to investigate the associations between the time series trends of various infectious diseases and relevant contributing factors, which play a role in disease transmission.

How human ecology landscapes shape the circulation of H5N1 avian influenza: A case study in Indonesia.

Background: Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus consistently threatens global public health. A better understanding of the virus' circulation mechanism is needed for future epidemic prevention. Previous studies have focused on the correlations between the presence of H5N1 virus and wild bird populations, domestic poultry production, and sociodemographic factors. However, human cultural landscapes and their impact on H5N1 spread have not been adequately explored. Methods: Using 196 HA gene sequences of H5N1 influenza viruses from Indonesia with district-level geographic information, we performed Monmonier barrier and Louvain community detection analyses to explore how human ecological factors impact the circulation of virus and identify barriers to or corridors of dispersal. Results: Spatial discontinuity in the genetic characteristics identified by the Monmonier algorithm were found to mirror the differences in key landscape factors. Our Louvain community detection analysis also found the co-existence of different geographic circulation patterns. The community detection analysis suggests that direct human-related interactions such as poultry transportations between remote areas may result in similar viruses spreading in two distant regions whilst dense localities supported genetically heterogeneous viruses in geographically adjacent areas. Conclusion: Human ecological landscapes shape the circulation mechanism of H5N1 virus in multiple ways contingent upon local context. Physical and cultural barriers may impede its movement between adjacent areas, while natural or human-induced corridors such as wild bird flyways and poultry production networks facilitate its spread between geographically distant areas. Further focus on the importance of cultural landscapes has great potential for increasing our understanding of the circulation of pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in Southeast Asia.

A web-based geovisual analytics platform for identifying potential contributors to culvert sedimentation.

Sediment accumulation at culverts involves large-scale and interlinked environmental processes that are difficult to address with experimental or physical modeling methods. This article presents an alternative data-driven investigation for shedding insights into these processes. Accordingly, a web-based geovisual analytics application, the IowaDOT platform, was developed, which allows users to explore the complex processes associated with the sediment deposition at culverts. The platform provides systematic procedures for (1) collecting and integrating analytical variables into a single dataset, (2) quantifying the degree of culvert sedimentation using time series of aerial images, (3) identifying drivers that contribute to culvert sedimentation processes from a variety of culvert structural and upstream landscape characteristics using a tree-based feature selection algorithm, and (4) facilitating the understanding of complex spatial and relational patterns of culvert sedimentation processes using multivariate geovisualizations supported by a self-organizing map (SOM). As the outcomes of this study, these patterns identify culvert sedimentation-prone regions in Iowa and quantify empirical relationships between the drivers and culvert sedimentation degrees. A simple evaluation of the platform was performed to assess the usefulness and user satisfaction of the tool by professional users, and positive feedbacks are received.

Analysis of big patient mobility data for identifying medical regions, spatio-temporal characteristics and care demands of patients on the move.

BACKGROUND: Patient mobility can be defined as a patient's movement or utilization of a health care service located in a place or region other than the patient's place of residence. Mobility provides freedom to patients to obtain health care from providers across regions and even countries. It is essential to monitor patient choices in order to maintain the quality standards and responsiveness of the health system, otherwise, the health system may suffer from geographic disparities in the accessibility to quality and responsive health care. In this article, we study patient mobility in a national health care system to identify medical regions, spatio-temporal and service characteristics of health care utilization, and demands for patient mobility. METHODS: We conducted a systematic analysis of province-to-province patient mobility in Turkey from December 2009 to December 2013, which was derived from 1.2 billion health service records. We first used a flow-based regionalization method to discover functional medical regions from the patient mobility network. We compare the results of data-driven regions to designated regions of the government in order to identify the areas of mismatch between planned regional service delivery and the observed utilization in the form of patient flows. Second, we used feature selection, and multivariate flow clustering to identify spatio-temporal characteristics and health care needs of patients on the move. RESULTS: Medical regions we derived by analyzing the patient mobility data showed strong overlap with the designated regions of the Ministry of Health. We also identified a number of regions that the regional service utilization did not match the planned service delivery. Overall, our spatio-temporal and multivariate analysis of regional and long-distance patient flows revealed strong relationship with socio-demographic and cultural structure of the society and migration patterns. Also, patient flows exhibited seasonal patterns, and yearly trends which correlate with implemented policies throughout the period. We found that policies resulted in different outcomes across the country. We also identified characteristics of long-distance flows which could help inform policy-making by assessing the needs of patients in terms of medical specialization, service level and type. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach helped identify (1) the mismatch between regional policy and practice in health care utilization (2) spatial, temporal, health service level characteristics and medical specialties that patients seek out by traveling longer distances. Our findings can help identify the imbalance between supply and demand, changes in mobility behaviors, and inform policy-making with insights.