Proton pump inhibitors for gastrointestinal bleeding prophylaxis in critically ill patients: A systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the most commonly prescribed drugs for preventing upper gastrointestinal bleeding in critically ill patients. However, concerns have arisen about the possible harms of using PPIs, including potentially increased risk of pneumonia, Clostridioides difficile infection, and more seriously, an increased risk of death in the most severely ill patients. Triggered by the REVISE trial, which is a forthcoming large randomized trial comparing pantoprazole to placebo in invasively mechanically ventilated patients, we will conduct this systematic review to evaluate the efficacy and safety of PPIs versus no prophylaxis for critically ill patients. METHODS: We will systematically search randomized trials that compared gastrointestinal bleeding prophylaxis with PPIs versus placebo or no prophylaxis in adults in the intensive care unit (ICU). Pairs of reviewers will independently screen the literature, and for those eligible trials, extract data and assess risk of bias. We will perform meta-analyses using a random-effects model, and calculate relative risks for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences for continuous outcomes, and the associated 95% confidence intervals. We will conduct subgroup analysis to explore whether the impact of PPIs on mortality differs in more and less severely ill patients. We will assess certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach. DISCUSSION: This systematic review will provide the most up-to-date evidence regarding the merits and limitations of stress ulcer prophylaxis with PPIs in critically ill patients in contemporary practice.

Thrombocytopenia and platelet transfusions in ICU patients: an international inception cohort study (PLOT-ICU).

PURPOSE: Thrombocytopenia (platelet count < 150 × 109/L) is common in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and is likely associated with worse outcomes. In this study we present international contemporary data on thrombocytopenia in ICU patients. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in adult ICU patients in 52 ICUs across 10 countries. We assessed frequencies of thrombocytopenia, use of platelet transfusions and clinical outcomes including mortality. We evaluated pre-selected potential risk factors for the development of thrombocytopenia during ICU stay and associations between thrombocytopenia at ICU admission and 90-day mortality using pre-specified logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: We analysed 1166 ICU patients; the median age was 63 years and 39.5% were female. Overall, 43.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 40.4-46.1) had thrombocytopenia; 23.4% (20-26) had thrombocytopenia at ICU admission, and 19.8% (17.6-22.2) developed thrombocytopenia during their ICU stay. Absence of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), non-cancer-related immune deficiency, liver failure, male sex, septic shock, and bleeding at ICU admission were associated with the development of thrombocytopenia during ICU stay. Among patients with thrombocytopenia, 22.6% received platelet transfusion(s), and 64.3% of in-ICU transfusions were prophylactic. Patients with thrombocytopenia had higher occurrences of bleeding and death, fewer days alive without the use of life-support, and fewer days alive and out of hospital. Thrombocytopenia at ICU admission was associated with 90-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.7; 95% CI 1.19-2.42). CONCLUSION: Thrombocytopenia occurred in 43% of critically ill patients and was associated with worse outcomes including increased mortality. Platelet transfusions were given to 23% of patients with thrombocytopenia and most were prophylactic.

A survey of preferences for respiratory support in the intensive care unit for patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure.

BACKGROUND: When caring for mechanically ventilated adults with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure (AHRF), clinicians are faced with an uncertain choice between ventilator modes allowing for spontaneous breaths or ventilation fully controlled by the ventilator. The preferences of clinicians managing such patients, and what motivates their choice of ventilator mode, are largely unknown. To better understand how clinicians' preferences may impact the choice of ventilatory support for patients with AHRF, we issued a survey to an international network of intensive care unit (ICU) researchers. METHODS: We distributed an online survey with 32 broadly similar and interlinked questions on how clinicians prioritise spontaneous or controlled ventilation in invasively ventilated patients with AHRF of different severity, and which factors determine their choice. RESULTS: The survey was distributed to 1337 recipients in 12 countries. Of these, 415 (31%) completed the survey either fully (52%) or partially (48%). Most respondents were identified as medical specialists (87%) or physicians in training (11%). Modes allowing for spontaneous ventilation were considered preferable in mild AHRF, with controlled ventilation considered as progressively more important in moderate and severe AHRF. Among respondents there was strong support (90%) for a randomised clinical trial comparing spontaneous with controlled ventilation in patients with moderate AHRF. CONCLUSIONS: The responses from this international survey suggest that there is clinical equipoise for the preferred ventilator mode in patients with AHRF of moderate severity. We found strong support for a randomised trial comparing modes of ventilation in patients with moderate AHRF.

Long-term effects of restriction of intravenous fluid in adult ICU patients with septic shock.

PURPOSE: To assess long-term outcomes of restrictive versus standard intravenous (IV) fluid therapy in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients with septic shock included in the European Conservative versus Liberal Approach to Fluid Therapy in Septic Shock in Intensive Care (CLASSIC) trial. METHODS: We conducted the pre-planned analyses of mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using EuroQol (EQ)-5D-5L index values and EQ visual analogue scale (VAS), and cognitive function using Mini Montreal Cognitive Assessment (Mini MoCA) test at 1 year. Deceased patients were assigned numerical zero for HRQoL as a state equal to death and zero for cognitive function outcomes as worst possible score, and we used multiple imputation for missing data on HRQoL and cognitive function. RESULTS: Among 1554 randomized patients, we obtained 1-year data on mortality in 97.9% of patients, HRQoL in 91.3%, and cognitive function in 86.3%. One-year mortality was 385/746 (51.3%) in the restrictive-fluid group versus 383/767 (49.9%) in the standard-fluid group, absolute risk difference 1.5%-points [99% confidence interval (CI) - 4.8 to 7.8]. Mean differences were 0.00 (99% CI - 0.06 to 0.05) for EQ-5D-5L index values, - 0.65 for EQ VAS (- 5.40 to 4.08), and - 0.14 for Mini MoCA (- 1.59 to 1.14) for the restrictive-fluid group versus the standard-fluid group. The results for survivors only were similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among adult ICU patients with septic shock, restrictive versus standard IV fluid therapy resulted in similar survival, HRQoL, and cognitive function at 1 year, but clinically important differences could not be ruled out.

Use of prokinetic agents in hospitalised adult patients: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal motility is important for adequate uptake of fluids and nutrition but is often impaired in hospitalised patients. Prokinetic agents enhance gastrointestinal motility and are prescribed for many hospitalised patients. In this scoping review, we aimed to systematically describe the body of evidence on the use of prokinetic agents in hospitalised patients. We hypothesised, that the body of evidence would be limited and derive from heterogeneous populations. METHODS: We conducted this scoping review in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews statement. We searched Medline, Embase, Epistemonikos and the Cochrane Library for studies assessing the use of prokinetic agents on any indication and outcome in adult hospitalised patients. We used a modified version of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) to assess the certainty of evidence. RESULTS: We included 102 studies with a total of 8830 patients. Eighty-six studies were clinical trials (84%), and 52 (60%) of these were conducted in the intensive care unit, with feeding intolerance as the main indication. In the non-intensive care setting the indications were wider; most studies assessed use of prokinetic agents before gastroscopy to improve visualisation. The most studied prokinetic agent was metoclopramide (49% of studies) followed by erythromycin (31%). In total 147 outcomes were assessed with only 67% of the included studies assessing patient-centred outcomes, and with gastric emptying as the most frequently reported outcome. Overall, the data provided no firm evidence on the balance between the desirable and undesirable effects of prokinetic agents. CONCLUSIONS: In this scoping review, we found that the studies addressing prokinetic agents in hospitalised adults had considerable variations in indications, drugs and outcomes assessed, and that the certainty of evidence was judged to be low to very low.

Associations between enteral nutrition and outcomes in the SUP-ICU trial: Protocol for exploratory post hoc analyses.

Critically ill patients are at risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. Counter measures to minimise this risk include the use of pharmacological stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP). The effect of enteral nutrition as SUP on GI bleeding event rates is unknown. There are conflicting data describing the effect of co-administration of enteral nutrition with pharmacological SUP, and there is substantial variation in practice. We aim to conduct an exploratory post hoc analysis to evaluate the association of enteral nutrition with clinically important GI bleed rates in ICU patients included in the SUP-ICU trial, and to explore any interactions between enteral nutrition and pharmacologic SUP on patient outcomes. The SUP-ICU trial dataset will be used to assess if enteral nutrition is associated with the outcomes of interest. Extended Cox models will be used considering relevant competing events, including treatment allocation (SUP or placebo) and enteral nutrition as a daily time-varying covariate, with additional adjustment for severity of illness (SAPS II). Results will be presented as adjusted hazard ratios for treatment allocation and enteral nutrition, and for treatment allocation and enteral nutrition considering potential interactions with the other variable, all with 95% confidence intervals and p-values for the tests of interaction. All results will be considered as exploratory only. This post hoc analysis may yield important insights to guide practice and inform the design of future randomised clinical trial investigating the effect of enteral nutrition on GI bleeding.

Use of vasoactive agents in non-cardiac surgery: Protocol for a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of patients undergo surgical procedures worldwide each year, and despite advances in quality and care, morbidity and mortality rates remain high. Perioperative hypotension is a well-described condition, and is associated with adverse outcomes. Both fluids and vasoactive agents are commonly used to treat hypotension, however, whether one vasoactive agent is preferable over another has yet to be explored. METHODS: In accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) statement, we plan to conduct a scoping review of studies assessing the use of vasoactive agents in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. We will provide an overview of indications, agents used and outcomes assessed. We will assess and report the certainty of evidence according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. RESULTS: We will provide descriptive analyses of the included studies accompanied by tabulated results. CONCLUSION: The outlined scoping review will provide a summary of the body of evidence on the use of vasoactive agents in the non-cardiac surgical population.

Use of prokinetic agents in hospitalised adult patients: Protocol for a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal motility is an important contributor to the effective uptake of water and nutrition. However, it is often impaired in acutely ill hospitalised patients. Amongst other indications, prokinetic agents are used to improve GI motility, but the body of evidence is not well described. Accordingly, we aim to systematically describe and explore the body of evidence on the use of prokinetic agents in hospitalised adults. METHODS: In accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews statement, we plan to conduct a scoping review of studies assessing the use of prokinetic agents, for any indication, in hospitalised adults. We plan to assess study design, population, agents, indications and outcomes across included studies. When applicable, we plan to assess the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. RESULTS: We plan to provide descriptive analyses of the included studies accompanied by tabulated results and characterise knowledge gaps. CONCLUSION: The outlined scoping review will provide a summary of the body of evidence on the use, indications, effects and side effects of prokinetic agents in hospitalised adults.

The effects of pantoprazole vs. placebo on 1-year outcomes, resource use and employment status in ICU patients at risk for gastrointestinal bleeding: a secondary analysis of the SUP-ICU trial.

PURPOSE: Patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are at risk of stress-related gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP), including proton pump inhibitors, is widely used in the attempt to prevent this. In this secondary analysis of Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in Intensive Care Unit (SUP-ICU) trial, we assessed 1-year outcomes in the pantoprazole vs. placebo groups. METHODS: In the SUP-ICU trial, 3298 acutely admitted ICU patients at risk of GI bleeding were randomly allocated, stratified for site, to pantoprazole or placebo. In this secondary analysis, we assessed clinically important GI bleedings in ICU and 1-year mortality, health care resource use (e.g. readmission with GI bleeding, use of home care and general practitioner), health care costs, and employment status for the Danish participants using registry data. RESULTS: Among the 2099 Danish participants, 2092 had data in the registries; 1045 allocated to pantoprazole and 1047 to placebo. The number of clinically important GI bleedings in ICU was 1.9 percentage points [95% CI 0.3-3.5] lower in the pantoprazole group vs. the placebo group, but none of the 1-year outcomes differed statistically significantly between groups, including total health care costs (€1954 [- 2992 to 6899]), readmission with GI bleeding (- 0.005 admissions [- 0.016 to 0.005]), 1-year mortality (- 0.013 percentage points [- 0.051 to 0.026]), and employment (- 0.178 weeks [- 0.390 to 0.034]). CONCLUSION: Among ICU patients at risk of GI bleeding, pantoprazole reduced clinically important GI bleeding in ICU, but this did not translate into a reduction in 1-year mortality, health care resource use or improvements in employment status.

Interactions in clinical trials: Protocol and statistical analysis plan for an explorative study of four randomized ICU trials on use of pantoprazole, oxygenation targets, haloperidol and intravenous fluids.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients receive numerous interventions, but knowledge about potential interactions between these interventions is limited. Co-enrolment in randomized clinical trials represents a unique opportunity to investigate any such interactions. We aim to assess interactions in four randomized clinical trials with overlap in inclusion periods and patient populations. METHODS: This protocol and statistical analysis plan describes a secondary explorative analysis of interactions in four international ICU trials on pantoprazole, oxygenations targets, haloperidol and intravenous fluids, respectively. The primary outcome will be 90-day all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome will be days alive and out of hospital in 90 days after randomization. All patients included in the intention-to-treat populations of the four trials will be included. Four co-primary analyses will be conducted, one with each of the included trials as reference using a logistic regression model adjusted for the reference trial's stratification variables and for the co-interventions with interactions terms. The primary analytical measure of interest will be the analyses' tests of interaction. A p-value below .05 will be considered statically significant. The stratification variable- and co-intervention-adjusted effect estimates will be reported with 95% confidence intervals without adjustments for multiplicity. CONCLUSION: This exploratory analysis will investigate the presence of any interactions between pantoprazole, oxygenation targets, haloperidol and amount of intravenous fluids in four international ICU trials using co-enrolment. Assessment of possible interactions represents valuable information to guide the design, statistical powering and conduct of future trials.

Predictors of gastrointestinal bleeding in adult ICU patients in the SUP-ICU trial.

BACKGROUND: In previous studies of predictors of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in the intensive care unit (ICU), most patients received pharmacological stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP). We aimed to assess associations between potential predictors of clinically important GI bleeding (CIB) and overt GI bleeding in adult ICU patients, while considering the effect and potential interaction with use of SUP. METHODS: We included 3291 acutely admitted adult ICU patients with risk factors for GI bleeding randomized to SUP (pantoprazole) or placebo in the SUP-ICU trial. We used logistic regression models adjusted for allocation to SUP to estimate associations between 23 potential predictors and CIB (primary outcome) and overt GI bleeding (secondary outcome). Furthermore, we assessed associations between potential predictors and both outcomes in each allocation group and assessed potential interaction with allocation to SUP. RESULTS: Increasing SAPS II and SOFA scores, use of circulatory support and renal replacement therapy were associated with increased risk of CIB and overt GI bleeding; chronic lung disease was associated with increased risk of overt GI bleeding. Results for the remaining potential predictors were compatible with both no difference or increased and decreased risks. We found no strong evidence for any interaction between treatment allocation and any potential predictors. CONCLUSION: In adult ICU patients at risk of GI bleeding, severity of illness, use of circulatory support and renal replacement therapy were associated with higher odds of CIB, with no strong evidence of interaction with SUP.

Prophylactic use of acid suppressants in adult acutely ill hospitalised patients: A systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis.

BACKGROUND: Acutely ill patients are at risk of stress-related gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and prophylactic acid suppressants are frequently used. In this systematic review, we assessed the effects of stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) with proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) or histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) versus placebo or no prophylaxis in acutely ill hospitalised patients. METHODS: We conducted the review according to the PRISMA statement, the Cochrane Handbook and GRADE, using conventional meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA). The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, clinically important GI bleeding and serious adverse events (SAEs). The primary analyses included overall low risk of bias trials. RESULTS: We included 65 comparisons from 62 trials (n = 9713); 43 comparisons were from intensive care units. Only three trials (n = 3596) had overall low risk of bias. We did not find an effect on all-cause mortality (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.14; TSA-adjusted CI 0.90 to 1.18; high certainty). The rate of clinically important GI bleeding was lower with SUP (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.89; TSA-adjusted CI 0.14 to 2.81; moderate certainty). We did not find a difference in pneumonia rates (moderate certainty). Effects on SAEs, Clostridium difficile enteritis, myocardial ischaemia and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were inconclusive due to sparse data. Analyses of all trials regardless of risk of bias were consistent with the primary analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We did not observe a difference in all-cause mortality or pneumonia with SUP. The incidence of clinically important GI bleeding was reduced with SUP, whereas any effects on SAEs, myocardial ischaemia, Clostridium difficile enteritis and HRQoL were inconclusive. STUDY REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number CRD42017055676; published study protocol: Marker, et al 2017 in Systematic Reviews.

Heterogeneity of treatment effect of prophylactic pantoprazole in adult ICU patients: a post hoc analysis of the SUP-ICU trial.

PURPOSE: The Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit (SUP-ICU) trial compared prophylactic pantoprazole with placebo in 3291 adult ICU patients at risk of clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding (CIB). As a predefined subgroup analysis suggested increased 90-day mortality with pantoprazole in the most severely ill patients, we aimed to further explore whether heterogenous treatment effects (HTE) were present. METHODS: We assessed HTE in subgroups defined according to illness severity by SAPS II quintiles and the total number of risk factors for CIB using Bayesian hierarchical models, and on the continuous scale using Bayesian logistic regression models with interactions. Estimates were presented as posterior probability distributions of odds ratios (ORs), probabilities of different effect sizes, and marginal effects plots. RESULTS: We observed potential HTE for 90-day mortality according to illness severity (median subgroup OR range 0.90-1.09) with higher risk in the most severely ill, but not with different numbers of risk factors (1.00-1.02). We observed potential HTE of pantoprazole for clinically important events (0.86-1.18) and infectious adverse events (0.88-1.27) with higher risk in patients with greater illness severity and in those with more risk factors for CIB. Pantoprazole substantially and consistently reduced the risk of CIB with no indications of HTE (0.53-0.63). CONCLUSIONS: In this post hoc analysis of the SUP-ICU trial, we found indications of HTE with increased risks of serious adverse events in patients with greater illness severity or more risk factors for CIB allocated to pantoprazole. These findings are hypothesis-generating and warrant further prospective investigation. CLINICALTRIALS. GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT02467621.

Outcomes of Prophylactic Pantoprazole in Adult Intensive Care Unit Patients Receiving Dialysis: Results of a Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients with acute kidney injury requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) are considered at high risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) is often prescribed. We aimed to assess the incidence of GI bleeding and effects of SUP in these patients. METHODS: We assessed GI bleeding in ICU patients receiving RRT at baseline (and at any time in the ICU) and effects of prophylactic pantoprazole versus placebo in the international SUP in the ICU (SUP-ICU) trial. All analyses were conducted according to a published protocol and statistical analysis plan. RESULTS: Data of 3,291 acutely admitted adult ICU patients with one or more risk factors for GI bleeding randomized to pantoprazole or placebo intravenously once daily during ICU stay (until ICU discharge, death, or a maximum of 90 days) were analyzed. Some 20 out of 258 (7.8%, 95% CI 4.5-11.1%) and 52 out of 568 (9.2%, 95% CI 6.8-11.6%) of the patients receiving RRT at baseline and at any time in ICU, respectively, developed clinically important GI bleeding in the ICU. We did not observe statistically significant differences in the intervention effect (pantoprazole vs. placebo) in the proportion of patients with clinically important GI bleeding, clinically important events, infectious adverse events, use of interventions to stop GI bleeding, or 90-day mortality in patients with versus without RRT at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: In adult ICU patients receiving RRT at baseline, we observed high incidences of clinically important GI bleeding, but did not observe effects of pantoprazole versus placebo in this subgroup.

Predictors of gastrointestinal bleeding in adult ICU patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: To systematically identify predictors of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies including trial cohorts. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and trial registries up to March 2019. Eligible studies assessed potential predictors of clinically important GI bleeding (CIB; primary outcome) or overt GI bleeding (secondary outcome), had > 20 events, and presented adjusted effect estimates. Two reviewers assessed study eligibility, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias and certainty of evidence using GRADE. We meta-analysed adjusted effect estimates if data from ≥ 2 studies were available. RESULTS: We included 8 studies (116,497 patients). 4 studies (including 74,456 patients) assessed potential predictors of CIB, and we meta-analysed 12 potential predictors from these. Acute kidney injury (relative effect [RE] 2.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-5.28, moderate certainty) and male gender (RE 1.24, 95% CI 1.03-1.50, low certainty) were associated with increased incidence of CIB. After excluding high risk of bias studies, coagulopathy (RE 4.76, 95% CI 2.62-8.63, moderate certainty), shock (RE 2.60, 95% CI 1.25-5.42, low certainty), and chronic liver disease (RE 7.64, 95% CI 3.32-17.58, moderate certainty) were associated with increased incidence of CIB. The effect of mechanical ventilation on CIB was unclear (RE 1.93, 0.57-6.50, very low certainty). CONCLUSIONS: We identified predictors of CIB and overt GI bleeding in adult ICU patients. These findings may be used to identify ICU patients at higher risk of GI bleeding who are most likely to benefit from stress ulcer prophylaxis.

Time to onset of gastrointestinal bleeding in the SUP-ICU trial: A pre-planned substudy.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology and risk factors for clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding (CIB) in adult ICU patients may differ according to the onset of CIB, which could affect the balance between benefits and harms of stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP). METHODS: We assessed the time to CIB in the Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit (SUP-ICU) trial. We assessed if associations between baseline characteristics including allocation to SUP and CIB changed during time in the ICU, specifically in the later (after day 2) compared to the earlier (first 2 days) period, using Cox models adjusted for SAPS II and allocation to SUP. Additionally, we described baseline characteristics and CIB episodes stratified by earlier/later/no CIB and 90-day mortality status. RESULTS: Clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding occurred in 110/3291 (3.3%) patients after a median of 6 (interquartile range 2-13) days; 25.5% of the episodes occurred early. Higher SAPS II was consistently associated with increased risk of CIB (hazard ratio (HR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.05 in the earlier period vs HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03 in the later period; P = .37); university hospital admission was associated with decreased risk of earlier CIB (HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.14-0.63); this significantly increased in the later period (to HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.53-1.37; P = .02). Patients with later compared to earlier CIB received more transfusions and had more diagnostic/therapeutic procedures for CIB. CONCLUSIONS: Clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding mostly occurred more than 2 days after randomization. University hospital admission was associated with significantly decreased risk of CIB in the earlier period only.

Heterogeneity of treatment effect of stress ulcer prophylaxis in ICU patients: A secondary analysis protocol.

BACKGROUND: In the Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit (SUP-ICU) trial, 3291 adult ICU patients at risk for gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding were randomly allocated to intravenous pantoprazole 40 mg or placebo once daily in the ICU. No difference was observed between the groups in the primary outcome 90-day mortality or the secondary outcomes, except for clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding. However, heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) not detected by conventional subgroup analyses could be present. METHODS: This is a protocol and statistical analysis plan for a secondary, post hoc, exploratory analysis of the SUP-ICU trial. We will explore HTE in one set of subgroups based on severity of illness (using the Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II) and another set of subgroups based on the total number of risk factors for GI bleeding in each patient using Bayesian hierarchical models. We will summarise posterior probability distributions using medians and 95% credible intervals and present probabilities for different levels of benefit and harm of the intervention in each subgroup. Finally, we will assess if the treatment effect interacts with SAPS II and the number of risk factors separately on the continuous scale using marginal effects plots. CONCLUSIONS: The outlined post hoc analysis will explore whether HTE was present in the SUP-ICU trial and may help answer some of the remaining questions regarding the balance between benefits and harms of pantoprazole in ICU patients at risk of GI bleeding. CLINICALTRIALS. GOV REGISTRATION: NCT02467621.

External validation of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU).

BACKGROUND: The Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU) is a clinical prediction model, which estimates the risk of 90-day mortality in acutely ill adult ICU patients using 7 readily available variables. We aimed to externally validate the SMS-ICU and compare its discrimination with existing prediction models used with 90-day mortality as the outcome. METHODS: We externally validated the SMS-ICU using data from 3282 patients included in the Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial, which randomised acutely ill adult ICU patients with risk factors for gastrointestinal bleeding to prophylactic pantoprazole or placebo in 33 ICUs in Europe. We assessed discrimination, calibration and overall performance of the SMS-ICU and compared discrimination with the commonly used and more complex SAPS II and SOFA scores. RESULTS: Mortality at day 90 was 30.7%. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for the SMS-ICU was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.65-0.69), as compared with 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.70, P = 0.35) for SAPS II and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61-0.65, P < 0.001) for the SOFA score. Calibration (intercept and slope) was 0.001 and 0.786, respectively, and Nagelkerke's R2 (overall performance) was 0.06. The proportions of missing data for the SMS-ICU, SAPS II and SOFA scores were 0.2%, 8.5% and 6.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Discrimination for 90-day mortality of the SMS-ICU in this cohort was poor, but similar to SAPS II and better than that of the SOFA score with markedly less missing data.