Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica.

This study investigates winter polynyas in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica where several polynyas are known to form. Coastal polynyas are areas of lower sea ice concentration and/or thickness along the coast that are otherwise surrounded by more extensive, thicker sea ice pack. Polynyas are also locations where organisms can exploit both the ice substrate and pelagic resources. Using a self organizing map algorithm, we identify polynya events in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). The neural network algorithm is able to identify polynya events without imposing an ice concentration or thickness threshold, as is often done when identifying polynyas. The CESM2-LE produces a wintertime polynya feature comparable in size and location to the Ross Sea polynya, and during polynya events there are large turbulent heat fluxes and export of sea ice from the Ross Sea. In the CESM2-LE polynya event frequency is projected to decrease sharply in the later twentyfirst century, leading to increasing sea ice concentrations and thicknesses in the region. The drivers of the polynya frequency decline are likely both large scale circulation changes and local atmosphere and ocean feedbacks. If declines in wintertime polynya frequency over the twentyfirst century do occur they may impact Antarctic Bottom Water formation and local net primary productivity. Thus, better understanding potential local and unexpected sea ice changes in the Ross Sea is important for both assessing climate system impacts and ecological impacts on the Ross Sea ecosystem, which is currently protected by an internationally recognized marine protected area. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06951-z.

How changes projected by climate models can inform climate adaptation and marine sanctuary management: A collaborative prototype methodology.

Coral reefs are highly important ecosystems providing habitat for biodiverse marine life and numerous benefits for humans. However they face immense risks from climate change. To date, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate models have aided global discussions on possible policy responses to adapt to change, but tailored climate projections at a useful scale for environmental managers are often prohibitively expensive to produce. Our research addresses this problem by presenting a novel type of collaborative, participatory research that integrates 1) site specific climate metrics from the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE), 2) ecosystem response models to determine Degree Heating Months and coral bleaching impacts, and 3) collaborative social science data from environmental manager engagement to see how managers in one of the most visited marine sanctuaries in the world are enacting adaptive governance, stewarding reefs through climate impacts of the future. Our research is valuable to decision-makers seeking opportunities for innovative policy responses to climate impacts focused on experimentation and dialogue.

Variability, skipped breeding and heavy-tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird.

The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained by environmental conditions alone. This variation may be particularly confounded by the use of skipped breeding by seabirds as a life-history strategy, which directly impacts the number of breeding pairs and may affect the accuracy of breeding abundance as a metric of population health. Additionally, large fluctuations in time series may suggest that the underlying population dynamics are heavy tailed, allowing for a higher likelihood of extreme events than expected under Gaussian dynamics. Here, we investigated the effect of demography on time series for abundance of the Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae and explored the occurrence of heavy-tailed dynamics in observed Adélie time series. We focus this study on the Adélie penguin as it is an important bellwether species long used to track the impacts of climate change and fishing on the Southern Ocean ecosystem and shares life-history traits with many colonial seabirds. We quantified the impacts of demographic rates, including skipped breeding, on time series of Adélie abundance simulated using an age-structured model. We also used observed time series of Adélie breeding abundance at all known Antarctic colonies to classify distributions for abundance as Gaussian or non-Gaussian heavy tailed. We then identified the cause of such heavy-tailed dynamics in simulated time series and linked these to spatial patterns in Adélie food resource variability. We found that breeding propensity drives observed breeding fluctuations more than any other vital rate, with high variability in skipped breeding decoupling true abundance from observed breeding abundance. We also found several Antarctic regions characterized by heavy-tailed dynamics in abundance. These regions were often also characterized by high variability in zooplankton availability. In simulated time series, heavy-tailed dynamics were strongly linked to high variability in adult survival. Our results illustrate that stochastic variability in abundance dynamics, particularly the presence of variable rates of skipped breeding, can challenge our interpretation of fluctuations in abundance through time and obscure the relationship between key environmental drivers and population abundance.

Identifying global favourable habitat for early juvenile loggerhead sea turtles.

Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) nest globally on sandy beaches, with hatchlings dispersing into the open ocean. Where these juveniles go and what habitat they rely on remains a critical research question for informing conservation priorities. Here a high-resolution Earth system model is used to determine the biophysical geography of favourable ocean habitat for loggerhead sea turtles globally during their first year of life on the basis of ocean current transport, thermal constraints and food availability (defined here as the summed lower trophic level carbon biomass). Dispersal is simulated from eight major nesting sites distributed across the globe in four representative years using particle tracking. Dispersal densities are identified for all turtles, and for the top 15% 'best-fed' turtles that have not encountered metabolically unfavourable temperatures. We find that, globally, rookeries are positioned to disperse to regions where the lower trophic biomass is greatest within loggerheads' thermal range. Six out of the eight nesting sites are associated with strong coastal boundary currents that rapidly transport hatchlings to subtropical-subpolar gyre boundaries; narrow spatial migratory corridors exist for 'best-fed' turtles associated with these sites. Two other rookeries are located in exceptionally high-biomass tropical regions fuelled by natural iron fertilization. 'Best-fed' turtles tend to be associated with lower temperatures, highlighting the inverse relationship between temperature and lower trophic biomass. The annual mean isotherms between 20°C and the thermal tolerance of juvenile loggerheads are a rough proxy for favourable habitat for loggerheads from rookeries associated with boundary currents. Our results can be used to constrain regions for conservation efforts for each subpopulation, and better identify foraging habitat for this critical early life stage.

Effects of phosphorus starvation versus limitation on the marine cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus†MED4 II: gene expression.

Phosphorus (P) availability drives niche differentiation in the most abundant phytoplankter in the oceans, the marine cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus. We compared the molecular response of Prochlorococcus strain MED4 to P starvation in batch culture to P-limited growth in chemostat culture. We also identified an outer membrane porin, PMM0709, which may allow transport of organic phosphorous compounds, rather than phosphate as previously suggested. The expression of three P uptake genes, pstS, the high-affinity phosphate-binding component of the phosphate transporter, phoA, an alkaline phosphatase, and porin PMM0709, were strongly upregulated (between 10- and 700-fold) under both P starvation and limitation. pstS exhibits high basal expression under P-replete conditions and is likely necessary for P uptake regardless of P availability. A P-stress regulatory gene, ptrA, was upregulated in response to both P starvation and limitation although a second regulatory gene, phoB, was not. Elevated expression levels (> 10-fold) of phoR, a P-sensing histidine kinase, were only observed under conditions of P limitation. We suggest Prochlorococcus in P-limited systems are physiologically distinct from cells subjected to abrupt P depletion. Detection of expression of both pstS and phoR in field populations will enable discernment of the present P status of Prochlorococcus in the oligotrophic oceans.

Effects of phosphorus starvation versus limitation on the marine cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus†MED4 I: uptake physiology.

Recent measurements of natural populations of the marine cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus indicate this numerically dominant phototroph assimilates phosphorus (P) at significant rates in P-limited oceanic regions. To better understand uptake capabilities of Prochlorococcus under different P stress conditions, uptake kinetic experiments were performed on Prochlorococcus MED4 grown in P-limited chemostats and batch cultures. Our results indicate that MED4 has a small cell-specific Vmax but a high specific affinity (αP ) for P, making it competitive with other marine cyanobacteria at low P concentrations. Additionally, MED4 regulates its uptake kinetics in response to P stress by significantly increasing Vmax and αP for both inorganic and organic P (PO4 and ATP). The Michaelis-Menten constant, KM , for PO4 remained constant under different P stress conditions, whereas the KM for ATP was higher when cells were stressed for PO4 , pointing to additional processes involved in uptake of ATP. MED4 cleaves the PO4 moieties from ATP, likely with a 5'-nucleotidase-like enzyme rather than alkaline phosphatase. MED4 exhibited distinct physiological differences between cells under steady-state P limitation versus those transitioning from P-replete to P-starved conditions. Thus, MED4 employs a variety of strategies to deal with changing P sources in the oceans and displays complexity in P stress acclimation and regulatory mechanisms.