Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change.

High Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world's northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400-4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200-1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.

Evidence for influx of Atlantic water masses to the Labrador Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum.

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 23-19,000 year BP) designates a period of extensive glacial extent and very cold conditions on the Northern Hemisphere. The strength of ocean circulation during this period has been highly debated. Based on investigations of two marine sediment cores from the Davis Strait (1033 m water depth) and the northern Labrador Sea (2381 m), we demonstrate a significant influx of Atlantic-sourced water at both subsurface and intermediate depths during the LGM. Although surface-water conditions were cold and sea-ice loaded, the lower strata of the (proto) West Greenland Current carried a significant Atlantic (Irminger Sea-derived) Water signal, while at the deeper site the sea floor was swept by a water mass comparable with present Northeast Atlantic Deep Water. The persistent influx of these Atlantic-sourced waters entrained by boundary currents off SW Greenland demonstrates an active Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the LGM. Immediately after the LGM, deglaciation was characterized by a prominent deep-water ventilation event and potentially Labrador Sea Water formation, presumably related to brine formation and/or hyperpycnal meltwater flows. This was followed by a major re-arrangement of deep-water masses most likely linked to increased overflow at the Greenland-Scotland Ridge after ca 15 kyr BP.

Southwest Greenland shelf glaciation during MIS 4 more extensive than during the Last Glacial Maximum.

Although geological and modelling evidence indicate that the last glacial inception in North America was in NE Canada, little is known about the glacial response of the nearby western Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the glacial advance of marine oxygen isotope stage 4 (MIS4). Our multi-proxy study of a marine sediment core collected about 60 km southwest of the Outer Hellefisk Moraines demonstrates that in the southern Davis Strait region the most extreme Greenland shelf glaciation of the last glacial cycle occurred during MIS 4, with another prominent glacial advance at 37-33 kyr BP. During those periods the GIS likely reached the Outer Hellefisk Moraines in this area. Except for these two periods, our data suggest significant advection of relatively warm Irminger Sea Water by the West Greenland Current since MIS 4. This advection likely limited the extent of the MIS2 glaciation on the SW Greenland shelf. Decreased precipitation over southwestern Greenland predicted by atmospheric models as a downstream effect of a much larger MIS2 Laurentide Ice Sheet may have played an additional role.

Size differences of Arctic marine protists between two climate periods-using the paleoecological record to assess the importance of within-species trait variation.

Mean body size decreases with increasing temperature in a variety of organisms. This size-temperature relationship has generally been tested through space but rarely through time. We analyzed the sedimentary archive of dinoflagellate cysts in a sediment record taken from the West Greenland shelf and show that mean cell size decreased at both intra- and interspecific scales in a period of relatively warm temperatures, compared with a period of relatively cold temperatures. We further show that intraspecific changes accounted for more than 70% of the change in community mean size, whereas shifts in species composition only accounted for about 30% of the observed change. Literature values on size ranges and midpoints for individual taxa were in several cases not representative for the measured sizes, although changes in community mean size, calculated from literature values, did capture the direction of change. While the results show that intraspecific variation is necessary to accurately estimate the magnitude of change in protist community mean size, it may be possible to investigate general patterns, that is relative size differences, using interspecific-level estimates.

Echoes from the past: a healthy Baltic Sea requires more effort.

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.

Only 5 southern Greenland shelf edge glaciations since the early Pliocene.

Much uncertainty exists about the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), particularly as to the frequency of extreme shelf edge glaciations. Because the last glaciation removed most of the record of earlier GIS extent on land and shelf exploration of the older GIS glacial record requires the use of deeper marine archives. Here we present seismic evidence for the frequency of extreme shelf edge glaciations offshore southwest Greenland. Our findings reveal that since the GIS formation only 5 glaciations were characterized by an ice sheet covering the entire shelf of southern Greenland. We estimate an age of around 4.5 million years (my) for the oldest episode and found that such extreme GIS expansions may have occur here only 3 times within the past c. 1.5 my. We thus conclude that the first large shelf edge glaciation of southern Greenland did occur prior to the Pliocene warmth epoch.

Ocean lead at the termination of the Younger Dryas cold spell.

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold interval is one of the most abrupt climate events of Earth's recent history. The origin of this rapid, severe cooling episode is still widely debated, but it was probably triggered by a large freshwater influx to the North Atlantic resulting in disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The YD termination, despite having been even more abrupt than the onset has, however, received significantly less attention. Here using multi-proxy data from a high-resolution marine sediment record, we present evidence for a gradual decrease of the Labrador Current influence, northward migration of the Gulf Stream oceanic front and a rapid decline of sea-ice cover at the YD termination. Our data indicate a stepwise sequence of events with changes in ocean circulation clearly preceding those in atmospheric conditions, in contrast to the hitherto commonly assumed single-event rapid climatic shift at the YD-Holocene transition.

Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years.

Understanding the internal ocean variability and its influence on climate is imperative for society. A key aspect concerns the enigmatic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a feature defined by a 60- to 90-year variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. The nature and origin of the AMO is uncertain, and it remains unknown whether it represents a persistent periodic driver in the climate system, or merely a transient feature. Here, we show that distinct, ∼55- to 70-year oscillations characterized the North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere variability over the past 8,000 years. We test and reject the hypothesis that this climate oscillation was directly forced by periodic changes in solar activity. We therefore conjecture that a quasi-persistent ∼55- to 70-year AMO, linked to internal ocean-atmosphere variability, existed during large parts of the Holocene. Our analyses further suggest that the coupling from the AMO to regional climate conditions was modulated by orbitally induced shifts in large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation.