Coexistence of critical phenomena: the concept of manifold multi-spectral criticality.

Prompted by the ubiquity of empirical observations of critical phenomena, often in non-equilibrium macrostates, we developed a modelling approach in which several critical phenomena coexist. Instead of a single critical point, many coexisting critical points in the system are identified, forming a one-dimensional critical manifold. Identified within our game-of-life-like heterogeneous agent-based simulation model, where agents can be created and annihilated in the presence of a catalyst, each critical point belonging to the critical manifold is associated with a multi-spectrum of critical exponents. We find this situation in non-equilibrium mixed percolation-like macrostates obeying continuous phase transitions. These macrostates are quasi-stationary, where some system characteristics are time-independent while others are not. This novel look at universality signals the existance of complexity of critical phenomena richer than described to date.

Three Risky Decades: A Time for Econophysics?

The Special Issue comes out in the increasing accumulation of negative global tensions in many areas [...].

Multifractal Company Market: An Application to the Stock Market Indices.

Using the multiscale normalized partition function, we exploit the multifractal analysis based on directly measurable shares of companies in the market. We present evidence that markets of competing firms are multifractal/multiscale. We verified this by (i) using our model that described the critical properties of the company market and (ii) analyzing a real company market defined by the S&P500 index. As the valuable reference case, we considered a four-group market model that skillfully reconstructs this index's empirical data. We point out that a four-group company market organization is universal because it can perfectly describe the essential features of the spectrum of dimensions, regardless of the analyzed series of shares. The apparent differences from the empirical data appear only at the level of subtle effects.

Towards a Universal Measure of Complexity.

Recently, it has been argued that entropy can be a direct measure of complexity, where the smaller value of entropy indicates lower system complexity, while its larger value indicates higher system complexity. We dispute this view and propose a universal measure of complexity that is based on Gell-Mann's view of complexity. Our universal measure of complexity is based on a non-linear transformation of time-dependent entropy, where the system state with the highest complexity is the most distant from all the states of the system of lesser or no complexity. We have shown that the most complex is the optimally mixed state consisting of pure states, i.e., of the most regular and most disordered which the space of states of a given system allows. A parsimonious paradigmatic example of the simplest system with a small and a large number of degrees of freedom is shown to support this methodology. Several important features of this universal measure are pointed out, especially its flexibility (i.e., its openness to extensions), suitability to the analysis of system critical behaviour, and suitability to study the dynamic complexity.

Multibranch multifractality and the phase transitions in time series of mean interevent times.

Empirical time series of interevent or waiting times are investigated using a modified Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis operating on fluctuations of mean detrended dynamics. The core of the extended multifractal analysis is the nonmonotonic behavior of the generalized Hurst exponent h(q)-the fundamental exponent in the study of multifractals. The consequence of this behavior is the nonmonotonic behavior of the coarse Hölder exponent α(q) leading to multibranchedness of the spectrum of dimensions. The Legendre-Fenchel transform is used instead of the routinely used canonical Legendre (single-branched) contact transform. Thermodynamic consequences of the multibranched multifractality are revealed. These are directly expressed in the language of phase transitions between thermally stable, metastable, and unstable phases. These phase transitions are of the first and second orders according to Mandelbrot's modified Ehrenfest classification. The discovery of multibranchedness is tantamount in significance to extending multifractal analysis.

Universality of market superstatistics.

We use a key concept of the continuous-time random walk formalism, i.e., continuous and fluctuating interevent times in which mutual dependence is taken into account, to model market fluctuation data when traders experience excessive (or superthreshold) losses or excessive (or superthreshold) profits. We analytically derive a class of "superstatistics" that accurately model empirical market activity data supplied by Bogachev, Ludescher, Tsallis, and Bunde that exhibit transition thresholds. We measure the interevent times between excessive losses and excessive profits and use the mean interevent discrete (or step) time as a control variable to derive a universal description of empirical data collapse. Our dominant superstatistic value is a power-law corrected by the lower incomplete gamma function, which asymptotically tends toward robustness but initially gives an exponential. We find that the scaling shape exponent that drives our superstatistics subordinates itself and a "superscaling" configuration emerges. Thanks to the Weibull copula function, our approach reproduces the empirically proven dependence between successive interevent times. We also use the approach to calculate a dynamic risk function and hence the dynamic VaR, which is significant in financial risk analysis. Our results indicate that there is a functional (but not literal) balance between excessive profits and excessive losses that can be described using the same body of superstatistics but different calibration values and driving parameters. We also extend our original approach to cover empirical seismic activity data (e.g., given by Corral), the interevent times of which range from minutes to years. Superpositioned superstatistics is another class of superstatistics that protects power-law behavior both for short- and long-time behaviors. These behaviors describe well the collapse of seismic activity data and capture so-called volatility clustering phenomena.

Backward jump continuous-time random walk: an application to market trading.

The backward jump modification of the continuous-time random walk model or the version of the model driven by the negative feedback was herein derived for spatiotemporal continuum in the context of a share price evolution on a stock exchange. In the frame of the model, we described stochastic evolution of a typical share price on a stock exchange with a moderate liquidity within a high-frequency time scale. The model was validated by satisfactory agreement of the theoretical velocity autocorrelation function with its empirical counterpart obtained for the continuous quotation. This agreement is mainly a result of a sharp backward correlation found and considered in this article. This correlation is a reminiscence of such a bid-ask bounce phenomenon where backward price jump has the same or almost the same length as preceding jump. We suggested that this correlation dominated the dynamics of the stock market with moderate liquidity. Although assumptions of the model were inspired by the market high-frequency empirical data, its potential applications extend beyond the financial market, for instance, to the field covered by the Le Chatelier-Braun principle of contrariness.

Model for interevent times with long tails and multifractality in human communications: an application to financial trading.

Social, technological, and economic time series are divided by events which are usually assumed to be random, albeit with some hierarchical structure. It is well known that the interevent statistics observed in these contexts differs from the Poissonian profile by being long-tailed distributed with resting and active periods interwoven. Understanding mechanisms generating consistent statistics has therefore become a central issue. The approach we present is taken from the continuous-time random-walk formalism and represents an analytical alternative to models of nontrivial priority that have been recently proposed. Our analysis also goes one step further by looking at the multifractal structure of the interevent times of human decisions. We here analyze the intertransaction time intervals of several financial markets. We observe that empirical data describe a subtle multifractal behavior. Our model explains this structure by taking the pausing-time density in the form of a superstatistics where the integral kernel quantifies the heterogeneous nature of the executed tasks. A stretched exponential kernel provides a multifractal profile valid for a certain limited range. A suggested heuristic analytical profile is capable of covering a broader region.