Work ability trends 2000-2020 and birth-cohort projections until 2040 in Finland.

Aims: To examine age-group and birth-cohort trends in perceived work ability in Finland in 2000-2020 and make projections of perceived work ability up to 2040 based on the observed birth-cohort development. Methods: Ten population-representative cross-sectional surveys conducted in Finland between 2000 and 2020 were used (overall N = 61,087, range 817-18,956). Self-reported estimates of current work ability in relation to the person's lifetime best on a scale from zero to ten (0-10) were classified into three groups: limited (0-5), intermediate (6-7), and good (8-10). Multiple imputation was used in projecting work ability. Results: Examining past trends by 5-year birth-cohorts born between 1961 and 1995 showed that work ability has declined steadily over time among older birth-cohorts, while in the two younger cohorts a stable development before 2017 and a steep decline between 2017 and 2020 was seen. Trends by 5-year age groups showed a declining trend of good work ability among 20-44-year-olds, a stable trend among 45-54-year-olds, and an improving trend among 55-year-olds and older was observed for the period 2000-2020. Among the under 55-year-olds the prevalence of good work ability ended up around 75% and at 68% among the 55-59-year-olds, 58% among the 60-69-year-olds and 49% among the 70-74-year-olds in 2020. Birth-cohort projections suggested a declining work ability in the future among all age groups included (30-74 years). By 2040, the prevalence of good work ability is projected to decline by 10 to 15 percentage points among 45-74-year-olds. Conclusions: The projections suggest declining work ability in the future. Efforts to counteract the decline in work ability are needed.

Unemployed and disabled for work: identifying 3-year labour market pathways from the beginning of a sickness absence using sequence and cluster analyses in a register-based longitudinal study in Finland.

OBJECTIVES: This study followed the labour market pathways of unemployed persons who started a sickness absence (SA) spell. We aimed to unravel subgroups based on altering labour market states and to identify covariates of these subgroups. DESIGN: Register-based longitudinal study, with nine labour market states and 36-month units. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: All Finnish persons aged 18-59 years with an SA in 2016 who were unemployed at the start of the SA spell (N=12 639). OUTCOME MEASURES: Sequence analysis was used to study transitions between nine labour market states based on monthly register data on permanent and temporary (full and partial) disability pensions (DP), rehabilitation, all-cause SA, unemployment and employment. Individuals were grouped into clusters based on cluster analysis and intersequence distances. Multinomial regression analysis was used to examine covariates of cluster memberships. RESULTS: Six clusters with the following pathway identities were found: (1) recurring unemployment (44%); (2) employment after a short SA (18%); (3) rehabilitation, recurring SA and unemployment (12%); (4) unknown sources of income (11%); (5) permanent DP after a prolonged SA (9%) and (6) temporary DP after a prolonged SA (7%).Compared with the reference cluster 2, all other clusters were associated with less employment days and having a chronic illness before the SA spell, SA based on a mental disorder and a rejected DP application during the follow-up. In addition, the clusters had some unique covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Unemployed persons starting an SA are a heterogeneous group, with different labour market pathways. For many, the combination of unemployment and work disability means low chances for employment or regained work ability during the following years. Unemployed persons with poorer health, long history outside employment, older age, low educational level, a rejected DP application and a mental disorder could benefit from targeted support.

Impact of a Finnish reform adding new sickness absence checkpoints on rehabilitation and labor market outcomes: an interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: In 2012, new checkpoints were introduced in the Finnish sickness absence system to improve early detection of long-term work disability and hasten return to work after illness. We examined whether the reform affected participation in rehabilitation and labor market outcomes over a one-year period. METHODS: We used interrupted time series analysis among persons who started receiving sickness allowance up to three years before and up to two years after the reform. Separate analyses were conducted among those who passed 30, 60, and 90 sickness allowance days. Poisson regression analysis was used, controlling for seasonal variation, gender, age, and educational level. RESULTS: After the reform, participation in rehabilitation within one year of passing 30 sickness allowance days increased by 5.1% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.051, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.015-1.086]. The increase after 60 and 90 sickness allowance days was slightly larger. Looking at the type of rehabilitation, vocational rehabilitation from the earnings-related pension scheme increased most. Regarding the rehabilitation provided by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland (Kela), vocational rehabilitation, medical rehabilitation, and discretionary rehabilitation increased, but the increase was statistically significant only in the last case. Post-reform changes in employment, unemployment, sickness absence and disability retirement were negligible. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of new sickness absence checkpoints was associated with an increase in participation in rehabilitation but did not affect labor market outcomes one year later. The reform thus was only partially successful in achieving its objectives. Future research should focus on identifying the most effective approaches for utilizing rehabilitation to enhance labor market participation after sickness absence.

Self-rated work ability as a risk factor for disability retirement.

BACKGROUND: Simple and efficient survey measures to predict staying in or leaving work are needed. We examined the association of single-item self-rated work ability (SRWA) with disability retirement in two large population-based samples and compared the association of SRWA to two other scales, work ability score (WAS) and self-rated health (SRH), used earlier in studies. METHODS: The study population comprised 6034 participants aged 35-58 from the population-based Health 2000 and FinHealth 2017 cohort studies, pooled together. SRWA, WAS and SRH were all classified in three categories: poor, limited and good. A 36-month follow-up for disability retirement via linkage to electronic records was included in the analysis. RESULTS: Of the participants, 195 retired during the follow-up. All three measures strongly predicted disability retirement. Hazard ratio (HR) for poor SRWA (vs. good) was 8.48 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.41-13.28], WAS 7.99 (95% CI 5.62-11.37) and SRH 5.96 (95% CI 4.17-8.51). HR for limited SRWA (vs. good) was 4.35 (95% CI 3.21-5.91), WAS 3.54 (95% CI 2.49-5.04) and SRH 2.27 (95% CI 1.59-3.23). Taking into account gender, age, education and mental health narrowed the gap between poor and limited vs. good work ability as predictors of disability retirement, but the differences remained clear. CONCLUSIONS: Limited or poor self-rated work ability or health are strong predictors of disability retirement. The SRWA measure is a useful survey-measure of work ability in community-based surveys.

Identifying labour market pathways after a 30-day-long sickness absence -a three-year sequence analysis study in Finland.

BACKGROUND: Return-to-work (RTW) process often includes many phases. Still, multi-state analyses that follow relevant labour market states after a long-term sickness absence (LTSA), and include a comprehensive set of covariates, are scarce. The goal of this study was to follow employment, unemployment, sickness absence, rehabilitation, and disability pension spells using sequence analysis among all-cause LTSA absentees. METHODS: Register data covered full-time and partial sickness allowance, rehabilitation, employment, unemployment benefits, and permanent and temporary disability pension (DP), retrieved for a 30% representative random sample of Finnish 18-59 years old persons with a LTSA in 2016 (N = 25,194). LTSA was defined as a ≥ 30-day-long full-time sickness absence spell. Eight mutually exclusive states were constructed for each person and for 36 months after the LTSA. Sequence analysis and clustering were used to identify groups with different labour market pathways. In addition, demographic, socioeconomic, and disability-related covariates of these clusters were examined using multinomial regressions. RESULTS: We identified five clusters with emphases on the different states: (1) rapid RTW cluster (62% of the sample); (2) rapid unemployment cluster (9%); (3) DP after a prolonged sickness absence cluster (11%); (4) immediate or late rehabilitation cluster (6%); (5) other states cluster (6%). Persons with a rapid RTW (cluster 1) had a more advantaged background than other clusters, such as a higher frequency of employment and less chronic diseases before LTSA. Cluster 2 associated especially with pre-LTSA unemployment and lower pre-LTSA earnings. Cluster 3 was associated especially with having a chronic illness before LTSA. Those in cluster 4 were on average younger and had a higher educational level than others. Especially clusters 3 and 4 were associated with a LTSA based on mental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Among long-term sickness absentees, clear groups can be identified with both differing labour market pathways after LTSA and differing backgrounds. Lower socioeconomic background, pre-LTSA chronic diseases and LTSA caused by mental disorders increase the likelihood for pathways dominated by long-term unemployment, disability pensioning and rehabilitation rather than rapid RTW. LTSA based on a mental disorder can especially increase the likelihood for entering rehabilitation or disability pension.

Trajectories in physical functioning by occupational class among retiring women: the significance of type of retirement and social and health-related factors.

BACKGROUND: Occupational class inequalities in physical functioning and their changes after retirement are poorly understood. We examined occupational class trajectories in physical functioning 10 years before and after transition to old-age and disability retirement. We included working conditions and behavioural risk factors as covariates, given their established link to health and retirement. METHODS: We used the Helsinki Health Study cohort data from surveys 2000-2002 to 2017, and included 3901 women, who were employed by the City of Helsinki, Finland, and retired during the follow-up. Mixed-effect growth curve models were used to examine changes in RAND-36 Physical Functioning subscale (range 0-100) 10 years before and after the retirement date by occupational class. RESULTS: Old-age (n=3073) and disability retirees (n=828) lacked class differences in physical functioning 10 years before retirement. By retirement transition, physical functioning declined and class inequalities emerged, the predicted scores being 86.1 (95% CI 85.2 to 86.9) for higher class and 82.2 (95% CI 81.5 to 83.0) for lower class old-age retirees, and 70.3 (95% CI 67.8 to 72.9) for higher class and 62.2 (95% CI 60.4 to 63.9) for lower class disability retirees. Physical functioning declined and class inequalities slightly widened among old-age retirees after the retirement, whereas among disability retirees the decline plateaued and class inequalities narrowed over time after retirement. Physical work and body mass index somewhat attenuated the class inequalities after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Class inequalities in physical functioning widened after old-age retirement and narrowed after disability retirement. The examined work and health-related factors contributed weakly to the inequalities.

Contribution of age, gender and occupational group to the higher risk of disability retirement among Finnish public sector employees.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine the differences in disability retirement between public and private sector employees and to examine the contribution of age, gender and occupational group to the differences between the sectors. METHODS: Our Finnish register data consisted of about two million non-retired men and women aged 30-62 years. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios for any, full and partial disability retirement in the public sector compared with the private sector. RESULTS: The risk of any disability retirement was higher in the public sector than in the private sector in all occupational groups. The unadjusted hazard ratio ranged from 1.29 (95% CI 1.16-1.44) among teaching professionals to 2.25 (95% CI 1.95-2.58) among skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers. Adjustment for age and gender attenuated the differences between the sectors. After adjusting for age, gender and occupational group, the hazard ratio was 1.29 (95% CI 1.27-1.32) for any disability retirement and 2.02 (95% CI 1.96-2.08) for partial disability retirement, but there was no difference between the public sector and private sector employees for full disability retirement. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment of age and gender attenuated the higher risk of disability retirement in the public sector, while adjustment for occupational group widened the sector differences in any and full disability retirement. The risk of partial disability retirement was higher in all occupational groups in the public sector than in the private sector. For full disability retirement, the differences between the sectors were small or non-existent.

Association of short poor work ability measure with increased mortality risk: a prospective multicohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether a single-item measure of self-rated work ability predicts all-cause mortality in three large population-based samples collected in 1978-1980, 2000 and 2017. SETTING: A representative sample of the population of Finland. PARTICIPANTS: The study population comprised 17 178 participants aged 18 to 65 from the population-based Mini-Finland, Health 2000 and FinHealth 2017 cohort studies, pooled together. In all cohorts, self-rated work ability was assessed at baseline (1978-80, 2000-2001 and 2017) using three response alternatives: completely fit (good work ability), partially disabled (limited work ability) and completely disabled (poor work ability) for work. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality from national registers. Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for socioeconomic characteristics, lifestyle factors, self-rated health and mental health problems. RESULTS: Of the participants, 2219 (13%) were classified as having limited and 991 (5.8%) poor work ability and 246 individuals died during the 4 year follow-up. The age- and sex-adjusted HR for mortality risk was 7.20 (95% CI 5.15 to 10.08) for participants with poor vs good work ability and 3.22 (95% CI 2.30 to 4.43) for participants with limited vs good work ability. The excess risk associated with poor work ability was seen in both genders, all age groups, across different educational levels, self-rated health levels and in those with and without mental health problems. The associations were robust to further adjustment for education, health behaviours, self-rated health and mental health problems. In the multivariable analyses, the HR for mortality among those with poor vs good work ability was 5.75 (95% CI 3.59 to 9.20). CONCLUSIONS: One-item poor self-rated work ability -measure is a strong predictor of increased risk of all-cause mortality and may be a useful survey-measure in predicting severe health outcomes in community-based surveys.

Changes in healthy and unhealthy working life expectancies among older working-age people in Finland, 2000-2017.

BACKGROUND: Raising the statutory retirement age has been a common policy response to population ageing, but health problems may restrict labour force participation in older ages. We examined the development of healthy and unhealthy working life expectancies in Finland from 2000 to 2017 using different measures of health problems. METHODS: Healthy and unhealthy working life expectancies were calculated for the age range 50-65 years using the Sullivan method. The health measures were limiting long-standing illness, self-rated health, mental health problems and self-assessed work ability. RESULTS: Healthy working life expectancy was highest when health was measured by work ability. From 2000 to 2017, working years in full ability between the ages 50-65 increased from 6.2 (95% confidence interval 5.9-6.4) to 8.2 (8.0-8.5). Healthy working life expectancy increased also when measured by the other indicators. Unhealthy working years also increased, except when health problems were measured by limiting long-standing illness. The share of years in work increased both within the healthy and the unhealthy years, the increase being larger or equally large for the latter. Within the healthy and unhealthy years measured by the other three indicators, the share of working years increased irrespective of whether work ability was full or limited, but the increase was larger for limited work ability. CONCLUSIONS: In Finland, healthy working life expectancy has increased irrespective of how health is measured but also working with health problems has become more prevalent. The estimates for healthy working years are highest when a direct measure of work ability is used.

The impact of vocational rehabilitation on employment outcomes: A regression discontinuity approach.

OBJECTIVES: Since 2015, Finnish disability pension applicants who are rejected or receive a short-term temporary pension have, under certain conditions, also received a preliminary decision for vocational rehabilitation (VR). A key requirement for eligibility is a certain amount of earnings during the previous five years (€34 910.29 in 2017). We exploit this discontinuity to examine the impact of assignment to VR on labor market outcomes. METHODS: All new disability pension applicants from 2015 to 2017 were included. Fuzzy regression discontinuity design was used to evaluate the impact of assignment to VR on employment, unemployment and earned income two years later among those close to the threshold (+/- €20 000) providing eligibility for the preliminary decision. Arguably, those just below and just above the earnings limit are similar to each other, allowing causal interpretation of the estimates. RESULTS: For each of the employment outcomes, we found a modest effect in the expected direction at the income threshold, but there is considerable uncertainty in these findings. On average, exceeding the income limit increased the probability of employment by 7.6 percentage points, but the estimate was far from statistical significance. Unemployment became slightly less common and earned income slightly increased, but the estimates were also clearly statistically non-significant. CONCLUSIONS: We found no consistent evidence of the impact of assignment to VR on employment outcomes among low-income disability pension applicants. However, given the narrow and specific study population, this should not be taken as evidence of ineffectiveness of VR more generally.

Use of outpatient and inpatient health care services by occupation-a register study of employees in Oulu, Finland.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine how the use of outpatient and inpatient health services differs by occupational groups, and whether the differences are explained by sociodemographic factors and health status. METHODS: We used register-based data on 25-64-year-old employees living in the city of Oulu, Finland, in 2018 (N = 61,848). Use of outpatient health care services (public, private and occupational health care) among men and women was analysed with negative binomial regression models, and use of inpatient health care with logistic regression models, using two occupational classifications: occupational group (1-digit level) and more detailed occupation (2-digit level). Adjusted covariates were age, education, income, marital status, special reimbursement entitlements for medicines, and sickness absence. RESULTS: Examined at the level of larger occupational groups, the use of outpatient and inpatient health care was less common than average among managers, professionals and skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers; in women also among craft and related trades workers. Controlling for covariates explained only part of the differences, more among women than among men. Analysed at the level of more detailed occupations, the adjusted use of outpatient and inpatient care was more common among health associate professionals and stationary plant and machine operators, both among men and women. Furthermore, the use of outpatient care was common among male personal care workers, protective service workers and metal, machinery and related trades workers as well as among labourers in mining, construction, manufacturing and transport, and female customer services clerks and sales workers. CONCLUSION: The use of health care services differs by occupation, and the differences are not fully explained by sociodemographic factors and health status. High occupational risks, attitudes and knowledge may explain the more frequent use of health services. Furthermore, explanations may be sought from lack of access to occupational health care or healthier working conditions and behavior.

Determinants of transition from partial to full disability pension: A register study from Finland.

Aims: This study explored the rate of transition from partial to full disability pension (DP) and aimed to determine whether age, sex, education, employment status, employment sector, pension type and medical cause of disability were associated with transition to full DP during a four-year follow-up. Methods: We used register data, including a 70% random sample of partial disability pensioners aged 20-58 at the time that their partial DP started in 2010 or 2011 (N=5277). Competing risk analysis was used to estimate sub-hazard ratios (SHR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for full DP. Results: One third of partial disability pensioners transitioned to full DP during the four-year follow-up. More than half (52%) continued on partial DP, and 15% were in some other state. Men, older people, those with low education levels, those whose pension was granted until further notice and those whose pension was due to mental disorders (MD) proceeded to full DP more often than others. The SHR for full DP was 1.62 (95% CI 1.43-1.83) among partial disability pensioners with MD and 1.15 (95% CI 1.02-1.28) among partial disability pensioners with other diseases compared to those whose pension was granted due to musculoskeletal diseases. Conclusions: Partial DP is a relatively stable state, and moving to full DP is relatively rare. However, male sex, older age, low education level, a pension granted until further notice and partial DP due to MD are important risk factors for full DP. The risk factors for ending up on full DP varies by diagnosis and pension type.

Changes in Unemployment Affect Sickness Absence and Disability Retirement Rates: A Municipality-Level Panel Study.

To enhance understanding of the interplay between unemployment and sickness absence and disability retirement, the aim of this study was to examine how changes in area-level unemployment rates are associated with changes in sickness absence and disability retirement rates in a longitudinal setting. Municipality-level time-series data were collected on unemployment, sickness absence, disability retirement and covariates from databases for Finnish municipalities for years 2003-2017 (n = 4425 municipality-year observations). Fixed effects panel regression models were used to analyse how changes in unemployment rates predict changes in sickness absence and disability retirement rates when comparing consecutive years. The results showed that when examining yearly cross-sections, a higher level of unemployment in the municipality was associated with higher sickness absence and disability retirement rates. However, longitudinal assessment of consecutive years with panel regression models showed that a one percentage point increase in the municipality-level unemployment rate was associated with a decrease both in the sickness absence rate (-1.3%, p < 0.001) and in the disability retirement rate (-2.1%, p = 0.011), adjusted for simultaneous changes in demographic and socio-economic covariates, morbidity and economic situation of the municipality. The results indicate that unemployment and disability benefits partly act as substitutes for each other. Unemployment and disability rates should be assessed together to reach a more complete understanding of the level of non-employment overall and in different areas.

Body weight and premature retirement: population-based evidence from Finland.

BACKGROUND: Health status is a principal determinant of labour market participation. In this study, we examined whether excess weight is associated with withdrawal from the labour market owing to premature retirement. METHODS: The analyses were based on nationally representative data from Finland over the period 2001-15 (N ∼ 2500). The longitudinal data included objective measures of body weight (i.e. body mass index and waist circumference) linked to register-based information on actual retirement age. The association between the body weight measures and premature retirement was modelled using cubic b-splines via logistic regression. The models accounted for other possible risk factors and potential confounders, such as smoking and education. RESULTS: Excess weight was associated with an increased risk of premature retirement for both men and women. A closer examination revealed that the probability of retirement varied across the weight distribution and the results differed between sexes and weight measures. CONCLUSION: Body weight outside a recommended range elevates the risk of premature retirement.

Work Resumption after a Fixed-Term Disability Pension: Changes over Time during a Period of Decreasing Incidence of Disability Retirement.

The incidence of disability retirement in Finland has sharply decreased over the last ten years. At the same time, the share of fixed-term pensions has increased to cover more than half of all new disability pensions. This study examined the efficiency of fixed-term disability pensions under these changing circumstances with the aim of addressing the following research questions: are fixed-term disability pensions more often converted to permanent pensions, and how have the changes affected return to work? The study was based on register data of Finnish residents aged 25-62 whose fixed-term disability pension started in 2006 (n = 10,177) or 2015 (n = 7918). Of the fixed-term disability pensions starting in 2006, 58 percent were converted to a permanent disability pension within the next four years. In 2015, the corresponding figure was 41 percent. Return to work increased from 24 to 30 percent. In addition, ending up in some other state (most often unemployment) increased, and, more often, fixed-term disability pensions continued for more than four years. Transferring to a permanent disability pension decreased more among the younger, those with a lower education, and those suffering from mental disorders. The results were not notably affected by changes in the characteristics of fixed-term disability pension recipients (e.g., demographic and occupational characteristics and rehabilitation) or the selection of applicants into a fixed-term or a permanent pension. Return to work increased more among men, the older age groups, those with a fixed-term disability pension due to somatic diseases, and those who had received vocational rehabilitation. Adjusting for the composition of fixed-term disability pensioners increased the differences between the study years, and controlling for the selection into a fixed-term pension further widened the differences. In conclusion, a decreasing proportion of fixed-term disability pensions are converted to permanent pensions, but this is only partly reflected in increased return to work. Further efforts are needed to support work resumption after a fixed-term disability pension to avoid the situation where people drop out from disability pension but are resting on unemployment and other benefits.

Consumption of psychotropic drugs among disability pension applicants with mental disorders: comparing awarded and rejected applicants in Finland.

PURPOSE: Psychotropic drug consumption as a proxy measure of mental health problems during a disability pension process has only been studied among awarded applicants. This study examined psychotropic drug purchase trajectories among awarded and rejected disability pension applicants. Analyses were conducted in different diagnostic and sociodemographic groups. METHODS: A representative 70% sample of Finnish adults applying for disability pension due to a mental disorder in 2009-2011 (N = 18,087) was followed for 4 years in 3-month periods both before and after the pension decision. Register data on purchased drugs measured in defined daily doses (DDDs), gender, age, occupational class, unemployment history, and diagnostic group were used. The DDD levels and trends were analyzed using growth curve models. RESULTS: Psychotropic drug purchases increased before the pension decision and decreased gradually thereafter among both awarded and rejected applicants. The average DDD level was higher for rejected than awarded applicants before the decision but lower thereafter. The high pre-decision level for rejected applicants was explicit with a lower socioeconomic status. The pre-decision increase in DDDs was steeper for awarded applicants. Changes in DDDs before and after the decision were most prominent for depression, bipolar disorders, schizophrenia, and anxiety disorders. CONCLUSION: Awarded and rejected disability pension applicants differed partly in their trajectories of psychotropic drug consumption. For awarded applicants, the steep rise of consumption prior to the award possibly reflects worsening occupational capacity. Early high consumption for rejected applicants signals long running mental health problems and calls for earlier support.

Manual occupations with high all-cause mortality: The contribution of socioeconomic and occupational characteristics.

AIMS: Most high mortality-risk occupations are manual occupations. We examined to what extent high mortality of such occupations could be explained by education, income, unemployment or industry and whether there were differences in these effects among different manual occupations. METHODS: We used longitudinal individual-level register-based data, the study population consisting of employees aged 30-64 at the end of the year 2000 with the follow-up period 2001-2015. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models in 31 male and 11 female occupations with high mortality. RESULTS: There were considerable differences between manual occupations in how much adjusting for education, income, unemployment and industry explained the excess mortality. The variation was especially large among men: controlling for these variables explained over 50% of the excess mortality in 23 occupations. However, in some occupations the excess mortality even increased in relation to unadjusted mortality. Among women, these variables explained a varying proportion of the excess mortality in every occupation. After adjustment of all variables, mortality was no more statistically significantly higher than average in 14 occupations among men and 2 occupations among women. CONCLUSIONS: The high mortality in manual occupations was mainly explained by education, income, unemployment and industry. However, the degree of explanation varied widely between occupations, and considerable variation in mortality existed between manual occupations after controlling for these variables. More research is needed on other determinants of mortality in specific high-risk occupations.

From long-term sickness absence to disability retirement: diagnostic and occupational class differences within the working-age Finnish population.

BACKGROUND: It is well documented that sickness absence is strongly associated with disability retirement. A long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in particular increases the risk of disability retirement, but little is known about the variation of this risk across diagnostic causes. Further, as occupational classes differ in their diagnostic profiles, it is likely that the role of diagnosis in the pathway from LTSA to disability retirement varies between occupational classes. We examined how LTSA of different diagnostic causes predicts all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to the same diagnostic group or due to some other diagnostic group than that which caused the LTSA spell in different occupational classes. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyse a 70% random sample of all employed Finns aged 25-62 Finns in 2006 (N = 1,458,288). Disability retirement was followed from 2007 to 2014. The risk of disability retirement was compared between occupational classes with at least one LTSA spell due to musculoskeletal diseases, mental disorders, respiratory diseases, or circulatory diseases and those who had no LTSA spells due to these diagnostic groups during 2005. RESULTS: Those who had LTSA due to musculoskeletal diseases or mental disorders transferred more often to disability retirement due to same diagnostic group, whereas those who had LTSA due to respiratory or circulatory diseases transferred more often to disability retirement due to some other diagnostic group. The largest occupational class differences in all-cause disability retirement were found among those with LTSA due to mental disorders. For men, the hazard ratios (HR) varied from HR 5.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.00-6.52) in upper non-manual employees to 2.70 (95% CI 2.50-2.92) in manual workers. For women, the corresponding HRs were 3.74 (95% CI 3.37-4.14) in upper non-manual employees and 2.32 (95% 2.17-2.50) in manual workers. CONCLUSIONS: The association between LTSA and disability retirement varies between diagnostic groups, and the strength of this association further depends on the person's occupational class and gender.

The Level and Development of Unemployment before Disability Retirement: A Retrospective Study of Finnish Disability Retirees and Their Controls.

A weakening work ability may lead to a higher risk of gradual exclusion from working life, which may be manifested in increasing levels of unemployment. This study examined development of unemployment prior to disability retirement by educational level and occupational class in different diagnostic groups. The study population comprised 70% of Finnish residents aged 25-64 years who retired due to disability in 2011-2015 (n = 54,387). Growth curve models were used to analyze the level and development of pre-retirement unemployment among the retirees due to mental disorders, musculoskeletal diseases and all other somatic diseases and their gender- and age-matched controls drawn from the non-retired population. During six pre-retirement years, disability retirees had on average 39 annual excess unemployment days compared to their non-retiring controls. Excess unemployment was particularly high among those retiring due to mental disorders. On average, unemployment increased by 5.5 days per each year of approaching disability retirement, after controlling for aging and secular trends. The increase was largest among those who retired due to mental disorders. Excess unemployment was higher among the less educated and among manual workers, in particular among those retiring due to mental disorders or somatic diseases other than musculoskeletal diseases. Increased efforts to maintain and improve work ability among the unemployed is crucial in diminishing disability retirement at the population level. As the level of unemployment is elevated already several years before disability retirement, work ability problems among the unemployed should be tackled in the early stages.